Cadel Evans on 2012 TdF favorites : No contador among the main contenders??

[Forunculo]

This thread is a complete epic fail. Poor translation. evans mentioned contador. Some people...

Also, when Contador and Riis plays a mind game it's alright, when it's Evans he's arrogant, immature, etc. Sad really.

Probably the translation is poor and it's a fail, but your post is also a fail. Contador and Riis mind games never been underrating the other riders.

 

[angwy82]

And the others seem to be Evans blind. I find this post a bit contradictory. In what sense is Evans a more rounded rider if as you cede that Contador is a far better GC rider (btw there is a separate thread over who is the better ITT rider if you are going to use that argument).

And just for the record, whilst a Contador fan I am no Evans hater by a long way. I was mega impressed in the way he won this year's TDF.

I suppose i meant that Evans has proven he can win single day races, whilst contador's sole focus is stage races. Contador is clearly a superior GC rider, but cycling isn't all Giro, Tour & Vuelta (and other stage races). They are different riders. Evans in my view can challenge in more forms of the sport.

 

[The Hitch]

Maybe some of YOU people could respect the tour champion...

Like you did the last one?

(upon announcing that Contador had a positive test).

Thank you. I am struggling to type I am that excited.

 

[The Hitch]

Agreed.

Most of the people on this thread seem to be Contador crazy. Of course he's a better GC rider. That's because most of the GCs are decided in the mountains. Evans is a more well-rounded rider than Contador, but Contador is clearly the better 3 week rider.

By the way, in 2010 when Evans crashed and was injured, he didn't get the same pass that Contador got this year.

What a bunch of bull****.

Evans was absolutely given a pass, just like Contador this year.

If anything its a select few of Cadel fans that rightfully protested that Cadel was injured, but then come out with crap like "Evans is better cos he beat Contador in the Tour this year".

And Contador is more than just a climber. He won the very weak on climbing 2009 Tour by 5 minutes, for example.

Maybe some of YOU people could respect the tour champion...

Like you did the last one?

(upon announcing that Contador had a positive test).

Thank you. I am struggling to type I am that excited.

I dont find it strange even though Evans told exactly like that. Evans is a stronger TT'er and if he will do both at this year level it will be extremely tough to beat him. To my mind, critisizing him for these words is close to considering that you understand cycling better. Very likely, that winning the TdF Evans is just getting audacious. He always lacked in self confidence a bit. I dont get too why everybody goes crazy about Contador so much. You have no doubt there will be the Verbier-2? Honestly I dont like both of them that's why my opinion is completely unbiased.

Once again, 2 life time tt victories for Evans vs 14 for Contador (over a shorter career) tend to suggest that Evans is not a stronger tter.

But this has nothing to do with Evans vs Contador. Its about Evans thinking that Tony Martin and Peter Velits are going to beat him, or at least saying it.

 

[luckyboy]

I suppose i meant that Evans has proven he can win single day races, whilst contador's sole focus is stage races. Contador is clearly a superior GC rider, but cycling isn't all Giro, Tour & Vuelta (and other stage races). They are different riders. Evans in my view can challenge in more forms of the sport.

Contador has only ridden Fleche three times and Liege twice. Maybe he will put a bit more focus on them when he's a bit older.

 

[airstream]

2 life time tt victories for Evans vs 14 for Contador (over a shorter career)

Joaquim Rodriguez has more victories on the climbs than Andy Schleck. Does it tend to suggest that Schleck is not a stronger climber for the TdF as well?

 

[The Hitch]

Joaquim Rodriguez has more victories on the climbs than Andy Schleck. Does it tend to suggest that Schleck is not a stronger climber for the TdF?

Well thats because Joaquim Rodriguez career has been longer, whereas, with Contador Evans its the other way around.

Also climbs are tacitcal so the best doesnt neccesarily win, but tts, its against the clock and the best usually wins.

 

[airstream]

Well thats because Joaquim Rodriguez career has been longer, whereas, with Contador Evans its the other way around.

Also climbs are tacitcal so the best doesnt neccesarily win, but tts, its against the clock and the best usually wins.

We talk about the Tour. What have Сontador's victories in prologues and TTs under 20k got to do with that?? MJ will be decided in the long TT's. Evans is stronger on flat, on falso piano as well, on blown areas in general. It seems rather obvious to me.

 

[The Hitch]

We talk about the Tour. What have Сontador's victories in prologues and TTs under 20k got to do with that?? MJ will be decided in the long TT's.

This

http://www.cqranking.com/men/asp/gen/race.asp?raceid=12924

 

[Rechtschreibfehler]

This

http://www.cqranking.com/men/asp/gen/race.asp?raceid=12924

It's about the only really good result in a long TT he produced isn't it. And it wasn't flat either.

I haven't followed your discussion but a 50k flat TT would be a huge disadvantage for Contador vs. Evans I think. Still he'd probably compansate for it in the mountains.

Even though the course is virtually made for Evans, I don't have faith in him. But thats just a feeling.

 

[airstream]

This

http://www.cqranking.com/men/asp/gen/race.asp?raceid=12924

Oh. Thanks. I didnt know about that! That TT contained a real climb with gradients about 10%. Unfortunately, I cant find a profile of this stage. Contador gained a lot of time at that section, probably.

 

[Rechtschreibfehler]

Oh. Thanks. I didnt know about that! It contained a real climb with gradients about 10%. Unfortunately, I cant find a profile of this stage. Contador gaines a lot of time at that section, probably.

The TT took place directly after the mountains as well.

 

[The Hitch]

It's about the only really good result in a long TT he produced isn't it. And it wasn't flat either.

.

Au contraire mon ami.

http://www.cqranking.com/men/asp/gen/race.asp?raceid=7548

http://www.cqranking.com/men/asp/gen/race.asp?raceid=8645

Perhaps most importantly, this

http://www.cqranking.com/men/asp/gen/race.asp?raceid=8208

Oh. Thanks. I didnt know about that! That TT contained a real climb with gradients about 10%. Unfortunately, I cant find a profile of this stage. Contador gained a lot of time at that section, probably.

Well it had one 3km hill but was pan flat otherwise.

Perhaps most importantly, Contador posted the fastest time before the climb. So it was some very good efforts on the flats coupled with the short hill that won it for him.

 

[airstream]

Perhaps most importantly, Contador posted the fastest time before the climb. So it was some very good efforts on the flats coupled with the short hill that won it for him.

Well 3km at about 7%. Pretty steep for flat ITT. I think he took 30-35 sec at that hill into Cancellara at least. Honestly you think such a perfomance by Contador can happen one more time?

 

[Rechtschreibfehler]

Au contraire mon ami.

http://www.cqranking.com/men/asp/gen/race.asp?raceid=7548

http://www.cqranking.com/men/asp/gen/race.asp?raceid=8645

The first one Bruseghin won was a very very hilly TT. I'm absolutly positive Contador is one of the very best in those.

The other one, I don't know the profile from memory any more. But he finished behind Chavanel and Quinziato, which isn't proof of great class. Of good one it is of course.

In 2009 I think the result can be best explained by taking place right behind the "queen stage".

I don't want to take anything away from Contadors class. I'm just pretty convinced that there are some tour contenders which are considerably better at long and flat TTs, and I do think Evans, Wiggins and Menchov can be among them. Klöden definitly as well, but we don't know if he is a Contender, same goes for a potential Froome. We don't know anything about him really do we?

 

[The Hitch]

Well 3km at about 7%. Pretty steep for flat ITT. I think he took 30-35 sec at that hill into Cancellara at least. Honestly you think such a perfomance by Contador can happen one more time?

Missing out on the podium in an olympic time trial by 8 seconds, at the age of 25 suggests his tt is very good. There are no gc calculations there. So do the multiple victories he has in tts of around 20km and the top performances on tts of 40km length.

All of this suggests that Annency was far from an accident. One of the best performances he can get out of his body, yes, but not an accident.

 

[Rechtschreibfehler]

The olympic TT was pretty hilly though Hitch.

And of course, great performances by Contador are pretty usual stuff.
But I still don't know of any great result of him in a (50+) long and flat TT.

 

[airstream]

All of this suggests that Annency was far from an accident. One of the best performances he can get out of his body, yes, but not an accident.

The fact, that 61kg rider did a powerful, almost with no turns descent not worse than Cancellara, is not an accident too? For me personally that was the only long TT when he was really flying. Sure, hes got a class, but weaker than 5-6 other guys.

 

[The Hitch]

The first one Bruseghin won was a very very hilly TT. I'm absolutly positive Contador is one of the very best in those.

The other one, I don't know the profile from memory any more. But he finished behind Chavanel and Quinziato, which isn't proof of great class. Of good one it is of course.

In 2009 I think the result can be best explained by taking place right behind the "queen stage".

I don't want to take anything away from Contadors class. I'm just pretty convinced that there are some tour contenders which are considerably better at long and flat TTs, and I do think Evans, Wiggins and Menchov can be among them. Klöden definitly as well, but we don't know if he is a Contender, same goes for a potential Froome. We don't know anything about him really do we?

I dont see why there is such a difference between a 20k tt and a 40k tt that everyone eliminates them. A few riders like Grabsch do considerably better in the second, yes.

But in the 2009 Tour for example, 4 of the top 10 were the same in both the 16k tt and the 40k one.

Also youll find that in that Tour, all 3 of the riders you mention put in the far better tt on the 16k tt. Contador was the only one to improve on the longer time trial

Kloeden and Evans have always been very good at short tts, and Wiggins made his bones as a 4k pursuit rider. I dont see why making the course longer suddenly favours these guys.

As I said, 2009 certainatly suggests that it does not.

 

[The Hitch]

The olympic TT was pretty hilly though Hitch.

And of course, great performances by Contador are pretty usual stuff.
But I still don't know of any great result of him in a (50+) long and flat TT.

Well which of the GC riders do have a good result in a 50k flat tt?

Menchov and Wiggins 2010 Tour de France, comes to mind. Who else? Brajkovic in the Dauphine.

Not many. Contador has ridden very very few 50k flat tts in his career.

I dont see what the big difference between 30k and 50k is though. You are slightly more likely to crack on the latter, but after a certain point they are a very similar effort.

Haile Gebresellasie for example has had world records from 3000m, to the marathon which is over 14 times the distance. With endurance, a 40 minute effort and a 1 hour effort tend to favour exactly the same skills.

 

[luckyboy]

Well which of the GC riders do have a good result in a 50k flat tt?

Menchov and Wiggins 2010 Tour de France, comes to mind. Who else? Brajkovic in the Dauphine.

.........

 

[Rechtschreibfehler]

Well I deliberatively emphazised that the TT was supposed to be long AND flat. And looking at results in long and flat TTs, I can't find a single great / very good result on Contadors side and some of them on the side of the other riders.

I do know too, that Wiggins started his carreer being very well in prologues...
...I already stated more than one time in other threads that I find it interesting that he suddenly turned into a climber/long tt guy.
Ostriches to fly sometimes don't they? But that's a very diffrent topic.

And of course being good at long distances doesn't mean you can't be good at short ones as well. Still there are some riders who get better the longer the course gets and vica versa. And there are riders who are better at hilly courses and worse on flat ones.
One of the most extreme examples for this is Bruseghin btw., he's just total crap on flat courses compared to his hilly/mountain results.

Even El Pistolero agrees that Contador isn't great in long and flat TTs. There's also just no evidence to show something diffrent.
Not even the Annecy results before the climb indicate that he can be great at flat TTs, as Cancellara an others had to take the mountain into consideration.

Contador is a very capable rider, and the only thin I like about him is that he's rather agressive and that he's always riding for the win, doing this in a lot of races. But all of that doesn't make him a great time trialist. As much as one might like him because of all of his other abilities.

Edit:
the really important part about the distance + course I think is that the disatvantage grows with the distance as the course doesn't suit him.
I really have to admit though, that I don't really know why riders react diffrent to the distances. I don't think your Gebresellasie argument necessarily works, as running is somewhat diffrent to cyling.
I do remember reading that Merckx used to fade after anything longer than 40kms. And I mean, it was Merckx, he cracked his opponents on pure strength and endurance quite often. It seems the pure endurance capabilities don't apply to TTs considering this.

 

[Forunculo]

Don't see AC losing more than 30-40 sec with Cadel and Wiggo in that 50 km flat and maybe he match them

It's the last stage before Paris, recovery counts. And many potential stages with attacks. Stage 3,7 and 8 are not good for Wiggo I see him lost there 30 sec each day if there are moves.

In the other hand Cadel is a good puncheur but the stage 7 has a steep climb with 6-7 km. I'm sure Contador make his first major attack there. And he won't be worried if Andy sucks his wheel, in 2 days there is a pretty TT after a cute prologue.

Contador is at the same level at prologue and the first TT with Cadel and Wiggo. But the best trump card for Contador will be RadioSchleck at some point they have to smash the group and there are stages for that.

Maybe his team is too weak but I think this Contador to lose.

 

[Martin318is]

WOW

What IS this thread about again? I came into it thinking it was about Evans disrespecting Contador but then after a number of suggestions taht it was a poor translation, ACF provided a quote that demonstrates the opposite.

So what are the last 20 or so posts talking about? ANOTHER "can Contador TT?" conversation?

From where I am sitting, this thread's question was answered a while ago and the rest of the thread should have been posted elsewhere...

 

[simo1733]

Cadel is a strange guy for sure, nobody should be surprised if he says something odd.He is unpopular even amongst the Aussie peloton.
For me he has improved enormously over the past 2 yrs, for his more aggressive style of racing as much as for his wins.
I have massive respect for his tour win, he just doesn't have the charisma or panache of Contador,Gilbert,Cancellara,Hushovd .

Phil Anderson quotes

"Everything has to go Cadel's way or he falls down in a heap"

"He's not a born leader"

"He hasn't got many friends in the peloton"

"He's not really a people person"