Cadel's Chance

[nathang]

Will Cadel Evans' chance of winning this years tour be better now that there two strong teams rather than last year when there was only one (CSC).
My take is that if say Astana or Cervelo attack then the other will respond which leaves Cadel to use the other team to his advantage.
Wishfull thinking maybe.

 

[kloftus1044]

Cadel's up against nearly all the same rivals as last year with the addition of a few more from Astana. His team is stronger than last year but not nearly as loaded as say Astana or Saxo. If he's going to win, he's going to have to TAKE the win instead of waiting for it to come to him. But, we all saw him try just that in the Dauphine. If Contador hadn't ridden for Valverde, Evans may have taken the win.

I'd love to see the guy finally win the Tour but with the addition of Astana and their All-Star team, I think his chances are a little worse than last year.

 

[jaylew]

Despite the addition of Astana this year, I think Cadel's chances are at least as good, if not better, than last year as I believe the course suits him. I also believe his team will be much stronger. We'll see.

 

[Anonymous]

I don't know, I think the aerodynamics of his chin will still affect his chances.

 

[kloftus1044]

I don't know, I think the aerodynamics of his chin will still affect his chances.

He could modify his helmet strap with a fairing. As long as it's UCI approved, of course.

 

[Kazistuta]

Cadels chances ARE indeed better this year, but not because of the presence of more than one strong team (Cervelo shouldn't be considered as one IMO), but because his own team seem better adjusted and in-form than the last couple of years.

Lloyd, VDB and Dekker should be ready for the mountains, Scheirlinckx, Lang and Vansummeren is golden for the team time trial, and I guess Van Avermaet and Delage should be used only to get bottles to their team mates.

I'd actually say there's three strong teams this year, Astana (obviously) and the two Banks All three teams seem to have the right amount of mountain men and time trial specialists, and above that they all field more than one possible contender for the overall (Yes, Gesink shouldn't be left out of the equation). Of course Rabobank has decided to play on another horse as well, but both Freire and Flecha could prove valuable in the early parts of the mountains, if Menchov or Gesink should attain the yellow jersey.

 

[dm900rr]

Might help...

I suppose it might depend on this from Greg Henderson on Twitter :

"Some interesting announcements to be made tomorrow. Very interesting. All good for the sport of cycling though"

 

[BroDeal]

His Dauphine form was really good. If he was not at 100% then he has a decent chance of winning the Tour. If he does not get a step up in form then his chances are not that great because Contador will be a little better than he was in the Dauphine.

He seems more aggressive this season. Maybe that will make the difference.

It is hard not to think that his one big chance was last year, and he blew it.

 

[180mmCrank]

Cadel seems to be able to defeat himself without any help from his competitors. I would love to see his hard work and talent rewarded but I am expecting him to sabbotage his own chances by saying and/or doing something inappropriate.

I hope he is up there mixing it with the podium contenders - it will make it more fun to watch.

He sould see a decent sports psych - I'd be happy to put him in touch with one - I even know a couple of good Aussie ones.

 

[Chomsky]

He is lucky in the sense the Tour is much easier this year with only 3 mountaintop finishes in stages 7,15 and 20 which means the TTT (stage 4) and ITT (stage 18) will have a bigger impact on who wins this year. If he can avoid losing much time to Contador in the TTT he has an excellent chance of winning. But the course may even be more suited to Armstong than any other contender but I doubt Lance has the form in TT's to take advantage of the course even if Astana blows other teams away in the TTT.

 

[biker jk]

Cadel seems to be able to defeat himself without any help from his competitors. I would love to see his hard work and talent rewarded but I am expecting him to sabbotage his own chances by saying and/or doing something inappropriate.

I hope he is up there mixing it with the podium contenders - it will make it more fun to watch.

He sould see a decent sports psych - I'd be happy to put him in touch with one - I even know a couple of good Aussie ones.

He doesn't need a sports psych. There was a great interview with Cadel shown on Channel 9's Wide World of Sports here Sunday morning. He said he lost last year's TDF on Stage 9 after the crash which reduced his climbing and time trial ability by "5%-10%". Cadel said he couldn't sleep on his side for two months after the crash. He clearly was far below his best due to injury so cut the guy some slack.

 

[180mmCrank]

He doesn't need a sports psych. There was a great interview with Cadel shown on Channel 9's Wide World of Sports here Sunday morning. He said he lost last year's TDF on Stage 9 after the crash which reduced his climbing and time trial ability by "5%-10%". Cadel said he couldn't sleep on his side for two months after the crash. He clearly was far below his best due to injury so cut the guy some slack.

I am cutting him some slack. You may have read many other comments about Cadel that are far more disrespectful than anything I have ever said. I would like the guy to be fighting it out with AC and the rest.

And I think that his performance will be less about his physical ability and more about his mental approach. A sports psych would help with that - they would help him put together a mental gameplan for the three weeks. It would involving having strategies for being in best shape to make good choices when required.

I guess we will see next week - if it was a 'crash' that prevented him from being at his best then we should expect something special on Ventoux at the end of July. I hope so.

 

[unsheath]

Lotto still must be cursing that they let Horner go just to replace him with Popo, who seemingly has found some of his form back after re-connecting with the Hog.

Horner could have made all the difference this year and even more so in 08.

 

[benpounder]

In my dreams, Evans takes yellow early. Silence-Lotto then implodes trying to keep the petulant snot in front, and Evans exploding when it really matters.

Then we could have some youtube videos, like last year, of the ever mature, ever gracious Cadel Evans...

 

[mherm79]

it's all up to his team

cadels chances lie in the hands of his team mates. watching him ride the dauphine it was clear that he was strong enough, he did majority of the attacking and AC & Valverde had to ride wheel. one team mate on any of those stages and he most likely would have won.

in the TdF if he is isolated, again, in the mountains early on the climbs he won't have a chance - Cadel knows you need to attack to win the TdF and you can't attack when it's 1 against many - all you can do is ride wheel and limit your looses.

 

[benpounder]

...you need to attack to win the TdF and you can't attack when it's 1 against many...

In the past ten years, the Brunyel method has won over one third of the GT-GC titles, mainly by making sure the many can't attack. Last year, Riis employed a variant of this strategy for Sastre's victory.

This year there are three teams that can utilize that strategy: Astana, Rabobank and Liquigas. Sure the TTT is important, but unless you have multiple, and realistic GC threats, you are a one dimensional team.

Rabobank has Gesink and Menchov; Liquigas Pellizotti and Kreuziger, and Astana has a stable. All other teams are singular in terms of the GC. Silence-Lotto is there ostensibly for Evans, but they are still hedging their bet for a stage win as well. I predict, and I admit I hope, that Evans will be crushed.

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

Think it's a much stronger field then last year on a whole...
Astana is the strongest of course, but all these huge riders might not lead to the best team work, i still have a feeling contador will self destruct.
CSC is still strong, but other teams are coming to the tour strong too.. Rabobank, Liquigas and Caisse (L-L-S maybe not ready to put in a real challange yet, but we'll see...) all have strong teams. But rabobank have the best rider of the 3 to challange for the win with menchov (I think he is contadors biggest threat)

Evans too will have a stronger team then he has ever had behind him, Llyod will shine in some of the mountain stages for him i reckon, JVDB and dekker should provide a lot of help in the mountains too (more then popo last year anyway) I think Sastre has aweak team in terms of challenging for the overall, I doubt anyone but machante will be there for sastre come crunch time. I have my doubhts about a repeat win for carlos.

will be interesting...

 

[bunchridefinder]

I think his chances are very slim - I'd LOVE to see him win, but I think he needs a team that is built just for him.

 

[karlboss]

i think to win he needs another GC hopeful on the team.
Can dekker step up this year?

 

[biker jk]

In my dreams, Evans takes yellow early. Silence-Lotto then implodes trying to keep the petulant snot in front, and Evans exploding when it really matters.

Then we could have some youtube videos, like last year, of the ever mature, ever gracious Cadel Evans...

I believe your real dream involves LA being dipped in some chocolate sauce, while your nightmare is CE winning the TDF and LA recording a DNF.

 

[patswana]

Cadel's chances are a fair bit to do with whether he can stay upright. If he does, I think he can podium again.
I very much doubt he can win unless Astana and Saxo Bank get dumped for a doping scandal.

 

[Alpe d'Huez]

Agree with Chomsky and Ben. The course suits Cadel a lot. I'd even go as far to say that of the three mountain top finishes, only one can put a serious dent into his chances: Ventoux. Stage 7 is a long 7% grinder after two modest climbs, and it eases at the end. If he can handle the altitude, he'll be in good shape then. Stage 15 is very gradual and should see very minimal splits. There are two other stages in the Alps, plus the Stage 13 wildcard (no radios), that could see some splits though.

This course definitely suits JB's "Postal train" style of racing. Just have your team set a very fast pace over the last 50km or so, and let attrition take care of the rest. But I don't know that Astana has the power Postal did, or that Contador will follow that suit. I also think other teams may be able to derail that train at times with their equal strength.

If Cadel can take it easy for 16 stages, and give it everything going into the Annecy ITT he could end up in yellow. This would leave the climb up Ventoux, and I see him having some trouble there, as I don't think any one team can control that stage, and we're likely to see a blistering of attacks quite a few km from the finish.

 

[ambrose]

I believe that having several strong team will be an advantage to cadel, and also not being the favourite. Last year he was left to do all the chaising against saxo, and was always draging other rivals with him-this would be a massive mental hurdle, even if he was the strongest rider. He can effectively just sit on with hopefully a domestique or two (Loyd may be a big help) and not loose time on the mountains as the stronger teams keep each other under control.
Can he win? Yes, but he'll need alot of things go his way.

 

[msjett]

Chances....well there are at least 3 teams who can put a train on the front of that peleton, so unless the lotto lads are up to it Cadels chances are pretty slim to say the least..there I said it, I know they will revoke my aussie sports supporter licence again! lol

I think he should be talking to Rogers, Columbia would make good allies, me thinks.

 

[subzro]

Will Cadel Evans' chance of winning this years tour be better now that there two strong teams rather than last year when there was only one (CSC).

Interesting logic, and I would say yes I tend to agree ...

... but on the other hand AC is back so it balances that out.

Last year he went in as favourite, this year he goes in as second or third favourite. He clearly didn't handle the pressure of being number one last year so that's probably the biggest plus for him.

I hope he does well, he should be on the podium again.