Can Rodriguez win the Vuelta?

[spalco]

There've been a bunch of threads like this already, but I'd really be interested in a clean poll-result to this question.

I didn't take him seriously as a GC contender until a couple days ago, but he's looking better and better. Big TT coming up obviously, but if he loses less than 2 minutes on Contador/Froom (whoever is better) who knows, eh?...

 

[LaFlorecita]

Can he? Yes of course. Will he? I don't think so. It all depends on what happens in the TT and the mtf trio stage 14, 15, 16.

 

[luckyboy]

He can win. Doubt he will.

Depends on how he's going when we get to the proper mountains.

 

[Vino attacks everyone]

Well, he can win this Vuelta... but so can Noval is he is really lucky

I think both Froomey and AC is stronger than him, perhpas also Valverde

 

[CasperVg]

If the Vuelta keeps progressing like this (lots of actions but in the end very small gaps) he certainly has a chance, because he's arguably the best mountain-sprinter amongst the 4 contenders and is able to take a lot of bonus seconds that way. The ITT might be a problem, but it's rather hilly and his ITT has definitely improved this season (see final Giro TT) so I don't think he'll lose minutes. So if he stays consistent and doesn't have any big breakdowns in the final few weeks, he can definitely win IMO.

 

[Miburo]

You should have rephrased it to "Will he win"

He can win but I don't think he'll win.

 

[Miburo]

If the Vuelta keeps progressing like this (lots of actions but in the end very small gaps) he certainly has a chance, because he's arguably the best mountain-sprinter amongst the 4 contenders and is able to take a lot of bonus seconds that way. The ITT might be a problem, but it's rather hilly and his ITT has definitely improved this season (see final Giro TT) so I don't think he'll lose minutes. So if he stays consistent and doesn't have any big breakdowns in the final few weeks, he can definitely win IMO.

Ok with Giro ITT he didn't lose much against hesjedal.

But Contador and Froome are from another level, just saying.

And when they'll focus on purito he'll drop eventually, he already dropped a couple of times but they didn't pay much attention to him.

 

[SafeBet]

Purito has turned into a reliable GT contender at age 32. He was too inconsistent with his ITT and would always drop during an important MTF in his previous GTs.
This year he's been a much better time trialist, so I don't believe he will be too far from the roja after wednesday.
BUT one thing must be noted about Giro 12: Liquigas fake tempo in high mountain stages waiting for the last climb to get things started was perfect for Purito.

My prediction:
- race hard from the beginning in stages with multiple climbs (I know there are just two) and he'll eventually fade.
- soft pedal until the last climb hoping to drop him and he'll probably hang on.

 

[SafeBet]

Ok with Giro ITT he didn't lose much against hesjedal.

But Contador and Froome are from another level, just saying.

He lost less than 2 minutes to Pinotti (who was drafting a motorbike) in that time trial. I wouldn't say post-dq Contador is on a whole different level compared to Pinotti. Froome maybe.

 

[hrotha]

Ok with Giro ITT he didn't lose much against hesjedal.

But Contador and Froome are from another level, just saying.

And when they'll focus on purito he'll drop eventually, he already dropped a couple of times but they didn't pay much attention to him.

Thinking "we'll drop him later" is terrible tactics. That made Hesjedal win the Giro.

Purito has had the best build-up for the Vuelta of all 4 contenders, in theory, and the course suits him perfectly.

 

[CasperVg]

Thinking "we'll drop him later" is terrible tactics. That made Hesjedal win the Giro.

Purito has had the best build-up for the Vuelta of all 4 contenders, in theory, and the course suits him perfectly.

Exactly what I'm thinking. We'll have to see how Purito does on the long climbs though.

 

[jens_attacks]

the answer is yes
if the others don't improve after the rest day and purito stays like that,he will take the overall win.
leo piepoli is a very good coach i've heard so purito definitely improved a little in time-trial,he won't lose much especially with that climb in it.

 

[Netserk]

I think the podium will be:
1st Contador
2nd Purito
3rd Valverde

So to answer the question, no.

 

[LaFlorecita]

the answer is yes
if the others don't improve after the rest day and purito stays like that,he will take the overall win.
leo piepoli is a very good coach i've heard so purito definitely improved a little in time-trial,he won't lose much especially with that climb in it.

So you went from Alberto domination to Froome domination to Purito domination. What's next, Noval domination?

 

[maxmartin]

No way
He will lose at least 1:45 to Froom in TT. And high mountain is not really his cup of tea. He will have to ride very defensively just like in the Giro but opponents are much stronger. And he usually will have a bad day in the MTF. I think he and Valverde will fight for third place.

 

[jens_attacks]

So you went from Alberto domination to Froome domination to Purito domination. What's next, Noval domination?

until now,alberto and froome didn't show they can dominate at all.sad stuff
purito of course can't dominate,he can just steal bonus seconds everywhere
noval is another story,he dominates the breakfast table

 

[the asian]

the answer is yes
if the others don't improve after the rest day and purito stays like that,he will take the overall win.
leo piepoli is a very good coach i've heard so purito definitely improved a little in time-trial,he won't lose much especially with that climb in it.

Is Leonardo Piepoli of Saunier Duval fame Purito's coach?

As for the Question, I think he will podium, but not be on the top.
Should have his customary bad day in the high mountains.
As for the ITT, I think he won't lose much time as most people think. He seems to have improved his ITT, and the hill in the middle should help him.

 

[LaFlorecita]

until now,alberto and froome didn't show they can dominate at all.sad stuff
purito of course can't dominate,he can just steal bonus seconds everywhere
noval is another story,he dominates the breakfast table

.........

 

[LaFlorecita]

No way
He will lose at least 1:45 to Froom in TT. And high mountain is not really his cup of tea. He will have to ride very defensively just like in the Giro but opponents are much stronger. And he usually will have a bad day in the MTF. I think he and Valverde will fight for third place.

This is exactly what everyone thought about Evans in the 2011 Tour and look what happened. Alberto better not underestimate Purito or he's gonna lose this thing.

 

[Miburo]

Thinking "we'll drop him later" is terrible tactics. That made Hesjedal win the Giro.

Purito has had the best build-up for the Vuelta of all 4 contenders, in theory, and the course suits him perfectly.

Purito already dropped a few times in this vuelta and Froome/Contador are from another league than the ones in the giro.

 

[Miburo]

This is exactly what everyone thought about Evans in the 2011 Tour and look what happened. Alberto better not underestimate Purito or he's gonna lose this thing.

Well right now he's really only concerned with Froome but I think at some point purito will crack.

That's what AC also thinks i'm assuming and besides there's still the TT.

 

[the asian]

until now,alberto and froome didn't show they can dominate at all.sad stuff
purito of course can't dominate,he can just steal bonus seconds everywhere
noval is another story,he dominates the breakfast table

Must be the reason Saxo are extending his contract.

 

[the asian]

Well right now he's really only concerned with Froome but I think at some point purito will crack.

That's what AC also thinks i'm assuming and besides there's still the TT.

Purito didn't do too well on Bola in 2010. Even Nibali out-climbed him. However the only problem is, it's the penultimate stage.
Isn't Cuitu Negru a new climb? Remember reading a somewhere that it's called the Asturian Bola. I think Purito will lose some time to AC there.

 

[ILovecycling]

I think the podium will be:
1st Contador
2nd Purito
3rd Valverde

So to answer the question, no.

Oh God,this podium is a dream for me

noval is another story,he dominates the breakfast table

You killin me man

 

[The Hitch]

So you went from Alberto domination to Froome domination to Purito domination. What's next, Noval domination?

Jens just wants them all to go really fast and the faster they go the more of a kick he gets.

Naturally since Rodriguez has been going the fastest he likes him most.