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patrick767 said:
Agree course well set up for Hushovd - after Farrar's ride today I can see this changing and would not be surprised to see Hushovd go for green.
Looking at the betting I see Cavendish is still a favourite to win - personally I dont see it, not enough sprint finishes and too many stages where his rivals may pick up points and he does not. Also when they do sprint together for intermediates less and less guys will be interested and even beating Rojas and co may not see much of a points gain.
For me this is now a match race between Gilbert and Rojas and I am leaning Rojas as I dont think there are any finishes where he will be hammered by Gilbert and there may be a few where Gilbert struggles to stay with the sprinters. There is 3/1 available, strikes me as great value.
- Jul 7, 2009
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CAN he win, yes; will he? Not sure. It's weird, more teams/people have said they are NOT going for green than people that say they are targeting it. Thor says he isn't going for it, Movistar says not a priority, so does OPL. Methinks they doth disclaim too much.
I like the new point system, the intermediate sprints have been full of action this year.
With any luck there will be 3-4 people still in the running the 3rd week.
I like the new point system, the intermediate sprints have been full of action this year.
With any luck there will be 3-4 people still in the running the 3rd week.
Thor may say that he doesn't want green. . . but he's sure riding like he does, and so is Gilbert. They're both working hard to stay at the pointy end of things. My guess is that either one of these guys will be in green at the end of Stage 8, and that from then on the course will favor them keeping it.
- Jul 3, 2011
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Gilbert will take it, if you look over the whole course it suits him, especially for picking up stage wins but Thor will push him close because as he's proven in the past you don't need the most win to take the green.
I don't think Rojas will have the fight in him over the whole tour.
I don't think Rojas will have the fight in him over the whole tour.
- Jun 7, 2011
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- Jul 24, 2009
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patrick767 said:
And he's only contested one of the four intermediate sprints so far ("because I happened to be at the front"), and that one didn't turn out well.
- Jun 16, 2009
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There are a few more stages (including tommorow) that he could contedn ftw where the other sprinters won't. He needs to do well tommorow to take Green imo.
- Jul 7, 2009
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patrick767 said:
That is Vaugthers decision. There are magazine interviews done with Hushovd in the spring where he says that he wants to go for green. A week before the tour and suddenly it's: "I'm not even thinking about the green jersey." Then in the last couple of days he's saying: "Why I'm not going for green? You'll have to ask Jonathan Vaugthers."
- Mar 6, 2011
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Wergeland said:
I cant understand why JV doesn't want to go for green if your contesting all the sprints anyway.
- Jul 24, 2009
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Wergeland said:
I figured and it's baffling. Like I said before, it's apparently the team strategy. The course suits Thor, he's ranked high in the points standings despite leading out Farrar in one stage and not even going for intermediate sprints (today he once again didn't bother). Thor could win the green jersey and Vaugthers is saying no. I can't imagine that makes him happy with Garmin-Cervelo. When is his contract up?
edit: If I've calculated correctly (full results aren't posted here at CN yet), Gilbert kept the green by a single point over Rojas today.
Meanwhile Thor jumped to 3rd place with 112 points despite apparently not contesting the intermediate sprint. Farrar is at 76. Once again all I can think is, why the hell is Vaugthers not pushing for a green for Thor? Farrar won't get it. I never thought he would.
- Mar 12, 2009
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I wonder if Rojas will do a Hushovd and chase points in the mountains. I wonder how hard the favourites will ride Col d'Aubisque on stage 13 for example. I think Rojas has a chance at some points at the finish there. The stage to Gap is not impossible either but it might be to close to the end so the favourites might ride too hard there. And then there are a couple stages with a mountain ahead of the intermediate sprint.
Poll: Will Rojas win the Points competition?
Just watched it. You were joking about all the way across right? They moved maybe a third of the way across, and Cav was just late moving up. If you were going to relagate someone, how about Goss for first pinning Rojas to the rail in the intermediate, when he had no intention of sprinting. And then in the final Goss used the typical HTC tactic of deliberately drifting into the path of the other sprinters and fading down the middle of the pack. Generates a slowing of the peleton because is stupid and dangerous from which Cav can accelerate.
I hate watching that sort of tactic from HTC, it lacks class. If Cav is so good why does he not risk a nice clean sprint?
Just watched it. You were joking about all the way across right? They moved maybe a third of the way across, and Cav was just late moving up. If you were going to relagate someone, how about Goss for first pinning Rojas to the rail in the intermediate, when he had no intention of sprinting. And then in the final Goss used the typical HTC tactic of deliberately drifting into the path of the other sprinters and fading down the middle of the pack. Generates a slowing of the peleton because is stupid and dangerous from which Cav can accelerate.
I hate watching that sort of tactic from HTC, it lacks class. If Cav is so good why does he not risk a nice clean sprint?
- Sep 9, 2009
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Descender said:
Cav will score more than that tomorrow alone.
4 stages left where Cav can reasonable expect to score 20 points more than Rojas, next Tuesday is hard to call either way, and I don't like Rojas's chances of getting mega points on either finish this weekend, so it's all shaping up pretty well for Cav now Petacchi is nowhere and Garmin think it is a team competition.
with they way gilbert is contesting sprints i think he ll get the green,but i d certainly love rojas to take it,he always seems to be there in top 5 w/o major success
i doubt cav can win green jersey,he d really need to dominate flat stages and at the same time gilbert and rojas get out of top5 placings
i doubt cav can win green jersey,he d really need to dominate flat stages and at the same time gilbert and rojas get out of top5 placings
- Sep 9, 2009
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saganftw said:
Errr, that's basically what history says is by far the most likely thing to happen.
Cav is massive favourite for the 4 remaining sprints, and Farrar/Hushovd, Swift/EBH, Griepel, Pettachi, Feillu/Bozic etc etc etc are very likely to keep Rojas well down, whilst Gilbert will pretty quickly remember he isn't a sprinter tomorrow.
He's also reliably picking up decent points in the intermediates, and they're very nearly all reachable for him.
saganftw said:
Have you watched the Tour for the last three years? That scenario is what happens all the time.
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