Can Rojas win green?

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Will Rojas win the Points competition?

  • No

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Jun 21, 2011
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Look381 said:
Just watched it. You were joking about all the way across right? They moved maybe a third of the way across, and Cav was just late moving up. If you were going to relagate someone, how about Goss for first pinning Rojas to the rail in the intermediate, when he had no intention of sprinting. And then in the final Goss used the typical HTC tactic of deliberately drifting into the path of the other sprinters and fading down the middle of the pack. Generates a slowing of the peleton because is stupid and dangerous from which Cav can accelerate.
I hate watching that sort of tactic from HTC, it lacks class. If Cav is so good why does he not risk a nice clean sprint?
Don't like HTC much?

The relegation was inevitable. Rojas may have got away with it had they not squeezed Cavendish out but regardless of whether Cav was late moving up, he held his line, Rojas did not and if history is anything to go by moving a couple of inches off your line will incur the wrath of the judges.

I don't understand your problem with the finish. Goss sat up because he was at the front too early, Petacchi followed and as a consequence the peloton slowed until EBH went for it. It's not like Goss brake-tested everyone. Lead-out men sit up all the time, providing they hold their line it's not a problem and I doubt any of the HTC boys would've had Cav winning the stage at that point because he was so far back.

Rojas fans have every right to be aggrieved about the relegation as Cavendish's fans were because of stage 3 but the finish the just very disorganised with nobody where they wanted to be.
 
If the last 2 years are anything to go by, Rojas will finish between 4th and 7th on most flat bunch sprints. He has already bettered previous Tour performances by managing 2 3rd places (his best before was one, on the Montjuïc stage of 2009). There's always a sprinter or two who goes walkabout in the key stages, and Rojas has been consistently picking up those placings. However, if Cavendish is as predictably strong from here on in as he has been the last 3 years, and I see no reason to imagine that he won't be, then Rojas will have to do a lot of work in the intermediates to defend himself from Cavendish, before we throw Gilbert in as a wildcard.
 
I think Cavendish will win the green jersey this year. And although he's not exactly my favourite rider, I think he deserves it by now. I like Rojas, and I really hope he can get a stage win, but winning the jersey without winning a single stage is sort of hollow in my view.
 
Mambo95 said:
You've clearly seen something that nobody else has then. Perhaps you'd like to share.
winning 5 stages and losing to petacchi in points classification...thats enough for me to doubt cavendish green jersey hopes (actually points classification hopes in any stage race)
 
zapata said:
I think Cavendish will win the green jersey this year. And although he's not exactly my favourite rider, I think he deserves it by now. I like Rojas, and I really hope he can get a stage win, but winning the jersey without winning a single stage is sort of hollow in my view.
Thor and Óscarcito have both done it without a stage recently. That's why it's the "Points" jersey, not the "Sprints" jersey - there's more than one way to skin a cat, and you have to be clever to win it as much as you have to be fast.

If Rojas scores more points than Cavendish, he deserves it more. If Cavendish scores more points, I'll moan that the points system was changed to favour him ;)
 
Jul 2, 2009
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saganftw said:
winning 5 stages and losing to petacchi in points classification...thats enough for me to doubt cavendish green jersey hopes (actually points classification hopes in any stage race)
Different points system on the line this year. Makes a big difference.
 
Jun 7, 2010
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i don't want royas winning the green jersey! i prefer a rider who can wins and not a rider like him who can't him and he always arrives 3rd,4th .....
i hope gilbert or cavendish will win it!
i don't think royas deserves it if he doesnt win at least a stage and i have doubts about it
 
Libertine Seguros said:
Thor and Óscarcito have both done it without a stage recently. That's why it's the "Points" jersey, not the "Sprints" jersey - there's more than one way to skin a cat, and you have to be clever to win it as much as you have to be fast.

If Rojas scores more points than Cavendish, he deserves it more. If Cavendish scores more points, I'll moan that the points system was changed to favour him ;)
I am aware of that, but still I think it's a kind of hollow victory to win the jersey that way. Almost like a consolation price, like the combativity award and such gimmicks. I'd much prefer a single stage win.
 
Jun 7, 2010
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zapata said:
I am aware of that, but still I think it's a kind of hollow victory to win the jersey that way. Almost like a consolation price, like the combativity award and such gimmicks. I'd much prefer a single stage win.
i totally agree with you!
 
(Here's a point system I'd like to see: one point for every rider you beat on each stage. For all the riders, so if you finish next-to-last, you get one single point. Etc. )
 
Mambo95 said:
Different points system on the line this year. Makes a big difference.
uhm sure...too bad it works both ways,u can expect cav winning flat stage with rojas,gilbert in top 10, but once the course is tiny bit hilly he will be in grupetto not even goin for major points or intermediate sprints
 
saganftw said:
uhm sure...too bad it works both ways,u can expect cav winning flat stage with rojas,gilbert in top 10, but once the course is tiny bit hilly he will be in grupetto not even goin for major points or intermediate sprints
But bear in mind stages classified as flat award more points.
 
Jul 2, 2009
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saganftw said:
uhm sure...too bad it works both ways,u can expect cav winning flat stage with rojas,gilbert in top 10, but once the course is tiny bit hilly he will be in grupetto not even goin for major points or intermediate sprints
It does work both ways. This year it's a bit like a Champions league tie. The sprinters who do well on the hillier stuff have had their home leg.
Now they've got to go to the pure sprinters' home pitch and defend their lead.

A 2-1, or even 3-1 lead going to Old Trafford or the Nou Camp isn't usually enough.
 
I'm bored so I had a look at the remaining stages one by one in the Cav-Rojas battle (now wait for Gilbert to end up taking it...).

Tomorrow (flat stage):
http://www.letour.fr/PHOTOS/TDF/2011/700/PROFIL.gif

Intermediate sprint: Advantage Cavendish.
Finish line: Advantage Cavendish.

9 July (hilly stage)
http://www.letour.fr/PHOTOS/TDF/2011/800/PROFIL.gif

Intermediate sprint: Advantage Cavendish.
Finish line: Advantage Rojas, who might snatch some points.

10 July (hilly stage)
http://www.letour.fr/PHOTOS/TDF/2011/900/PROFIL.gif

Intermediate sprint: Advantage Rojas.
Finish line: Advantage Rojas.

A key stage for Rojas's chances. As long as the break isn't too big, he should get some vital points here.

12 July (flat stage)
http://www.letour.fr/PHOTOS/TDF/2011/1000/PROFIL.gif

Intermediate sprint: Advantage Cavendish.
Finish line: Hard to tell... if the stage has been fast and hard, Cav might have been dropped, but only might.

13 July (flat stage)
http://www.letour.fr/PHOTOS/TDF/2011/1100/PROFIL.gif

Intermediate sprint: Advantage Cavendish.
Finish line: Advantage Cavendish.

July 14 (high mountains)
http://www.letour.fr/PHOTOS/TDF/2011/1200/PROFIL.gif

Intermediate sprint: Advantage Cavendish.
Finish line: hehehe.

July 15 (high mountains)
http://www.letour.fr/PHOTOS/TDF/2011/1300/PROFIL.gif

Intermediate sprint: Advantage Cavendish, I'd say.
Finish line: Advantage Rojas, who might get some points if the favourites decide to have a quiet day.

July 16 (high mountains)
http://www.letour.fr/PHOTOS/TDF/2011/1400/PROFIL.gif

Intermediate sprint: Advantage Rojas.
Finish line: -

July 17 (flat stage)
http://www.letour.fr/PHOTOS/TDF/2011/1500/PROFIL.gif

Intermediate sprint: Advantage Cavendish.
Finish line: Advantage Cavendish.

July 19 (hilly stage)
http://www.letour.fr/PHOTOS/TDF/2011/1600/PROFIL.gif

Intermediate sprint: Advantage Cavendish.
Finish line: Advantage Rojas.

July 20 (high mountains)
http://www.letour.fr/PHOTOS/TDF/2011/1700/PROFIL.gif

Intermediate sprint: Advantage Rojas.
Finish line: Advantage Rojas.

July 21 (high mountains)
http://www.letour.fr/PHOTOS/TDF/2011/1800/PROFIL.gif

Intermediate sprint: Advantage Cavendish.
Finish line: -

July 22 (high mountains)
http://www.letour.fr/PHOTOS/TDF/2011/1900/PROFIL.gif

Intermediate sprint: Advantage Rojas.
Finish line: -

July 24 (flat stage)
http://www.letour.fr/PHOTOS/TDF/2011/2100/PROFIL.gif

Intermediate sprint: Advantage Cavendish.
Finish line: Advantage Cavendish.


Cavendish has more favourable sprints and finishes, but the key might be the fact that Rojas can score points in all the sprints where Cavendish can score but the same doesn't apply to the opposite case. I think it will be close and exciting.
 
Jul 2, 2009
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Current betting (from Betfair):

Rojas 3.2
Cavendish 3.25
Gilbert 5.1
Hushovd 8.2
Farrar 24
EBH 42

Everyone else 100+
 
The other thing is that in some of the cases where you've pointed out that Cavendish has the advantage, Rojas might deign to get into the breakaway, which would put HTC in a quandary - chase the break down so Cav can get the intermediate points and risk not being able to drag him inside the time limit or losing domestiques to exhaustion, or conserve energy for later sprints and risk letting Rojas get maximum points at the sprint?
 
Jul 2, 2009
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Libertine Seguros said:
The other thing is that in some of the cases where you've pointed out that Cavendish has the advantage, Rojas might deign to get into the breakaway, which would put HTC in a quandary - chase the break down so Cav can get the intermediate points and risk not being able to drag him inside the time limit or losing domestiques to exhaustion, or conserve energy for later sprints and risk letting Rojas get maximum points at the sprint?
Or just put Velits on Rojas's wheel to follow him into the break and let others do the chasing. No-one's going to let a GT podium up the road.

Rojas will be kept on a short leash. Hushovd got away in 2009 because Cav had given up (he can't have expected to win that stage over the cat 2 climb).
 
I wouldn't be so certain he'll be kept on a totally short leash. There will come a time where yes, they can stick Velits or Martin with him and have the péloton chase that break down if it gets a bit uphill, but it will result in the pace being too high for Cav and blowing him out the back, and still Rojas can sprint out the points and Cav can't. Last year Thor got in multiple breaks despite both Petacchi AND Cavendish wanting him where they could see him. If Movistar keep trying to get Rojas in breaks, or bring the pain in the péloton on climbs to drop Cav and get more points for Rojas at intermediates after climbs, then HTC will eventually have to do a lot of pulling to defend against that. It then becomes a war of attrition - can Rojas get into more breaks than HTC can pull back before Cavendish cracks?
 
Sep 9, 2009
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I think in practice a few of the descent to finish stages you list as Rojas will in fact be for neither - The route is very nicely designed with no flat to the finish on 2 of them, so someone like Sammy would be foolish not to cause a selection on the climb and then attack the descent.
 
Dec 27, 2010
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zapata said:
(Here's a point system I'd like to see: one point for every rider you beat on each stage. For all the riders, so if you finish next-to-last, you get one single point. Etc. )
Pointless, a GC guy would win it, guys like Evans won't finish outside the top 30-40 on any stage throughout the race.
 
will10 said:
Pointless, a GC guy would win it, guys like Evans won't finish outside the top 30-40 on any stage throughout the race.
It would also cause chaos since more riders would be fighting to stay in the top 20 in sprints which is what causes crashes. This is the reason a ranking like that would never happen.
 

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