Can Sagan win the 2012 TdF points Jersey?

[Caruut]

You can win the classics and the green jersey.... It's perfectly possible to peak in April and July.

And then September and October?

 

[El Pistolero]

And then September and October?

Definitely possible.

Boonen won Roubaix and the Ronde in April, 2 Tour stages and was leading the green jersey competition in July until he was forced to abandon because of multiple crashes in the mountains and then won the world championship in September.

Why would Sagan want to peak for October? Lombardia is a week after the Worlds now.

 

[Caruut]

Definitely possible.

Boonen won Roubaix and the Ronde in April, 2 Tour stages and was leading the green jersey competition in July until he was forced to abandon because of multiple crashes in the mountains and then won the world championship in September.

Why would Sagan want to peak for October? Lombardia is a week after the Worlds now.

I had forgotten that. Meh, maybe he can go for green them. I guess I would just hate it if that ended up being his main season goal.

 

[Pippo_San]

Sagan is like Robert Bolt's play: "A Man For All Seasons"

 

[saganftw]

i doubt cav will finish tdf this year,olympics in london are much more important

other guys like goss,kittel,greipel or even rojas will probably try to finish,especially if they are in contention for green jersey...if not i dont see them finish either

i also have my doubts about climbing ability- goss,rojas and sagan will have no problem to go over mountains but kittel and greipel? especially kittel i dont really now what to expect from him in TdF,1st time tdf can be a shock for any rider - even tho sagan will do his first tdf too,he is much better climber not to mention his great descending skills

so overall if i write off cav,sagan and goss will be the biggest favourites for green with slight edge for sagan as i think he is the faster sprinter of the two

if cav does the whole tour he will take the jersey and 4-5 victories

 

[Bavarianrider]

Cav was actually the only pure sprinter to finish in the top 6 last year. It only favours a pure sprinter if they are able to win almost all of the flat stages. I'd hardly say it was unfair that Cav was able to beat Rojas, who basically did naff all on the whole tour.

Last year had an unnormal mount of semi classic tyüpe of stages. This years edition has much more pure sprinter stages again.
And if a sprinter wins a few of them, he is hardly to beat.

 

[Caruut]

Sagan is like Robert Bolt's play: "A Man For All Seasons"

Does that make Andy one of Don Henley's "Boys of Summer"?

 

[Caruut]

Last year had an unnormal mount of semi classic tyüpe of stages. This years edition has much more pure sprinter stages again.
And if a sprinter wins a few of them, he is hardly to beat.

Very true. The points system made sense last year when there were so many opportunities for hilly riders. Let's not forget, though, that in his 5 years at the Tour, Cavendish has won as many stages as the three winners prior to him (Hushovd, Petacchi and Freire) combined.

 

[GIBO SIMONI]

He will participate in TdF, it's a fact! Nibali wants him in the team. And yes he can win the green jersey this very year. I don't see Cavendish winning the jersey ever again, and Greipel should be the his only hurdle.

LOL dream on pal never again? why so sure its like saying contador wont win another GT cav's the fastest on two wheels if he is botherd he'll get it its stupid how much better he is than goss he would of won the stage goss won for that crash he was closing like a train lol

 

[royalpig180]

It will all depend on how many sprints Cav isnt strong enough for after a hilly parcours/finish and if Sagan has the speed to win/podium the normal flat sprints.

On your last point, I'm really interested to see myself. He's looked pretty good in a lot of bunch sprints this year, and he convincingly beat Haussler two days in row in Cali already. I think this says more about Haussler struggling to find his speed of old than anything else, but my point is that Sagan is fast enough, on a good day, to be right up there with the likes of Kittel and maybe even Cav. I doubt he'd win a straight up bunch sprint in the TDF but he could certainly be up there far enough to rack up some points.

In my book he would have been a favorite for the points competition under the old points system, but with the new one so heavily favoring the pure sprinters, I reckon it'll be real difficult for him.

 

[movingtarget]

Can't see it happening this year but he is a quality rider and showing progression unlike some of the other young riders.

 

[cineteq]

He answered the question himself

“The Amgen Tour of California helps me prepare for the Tour de France,” he said after yesterday’s second stage. “Hopefully it will help me win that green jersey in the Tour.”

He’s gaining in confidence all that time, too, as reflected by his answer yesterday when asked what would take for him to stop winning stages. “I don’t know, maybe it takes a natural disaster,” he smiled.

Read more: http://www.velonation.com/News/ID/11875/Sagan-eyes-Tour-de-France-green-jersey.aspx#ixzz1uvreDV8D

 

[karlboss]

I think he has a real shot, but needs to target it, go for intermediate sprints, try to get on Cav's wheel in the bunch sprints and not try something more risky to try and beat him, and then win the medium mountains, puncheurs finish.
Be consistent, and occaisionally brilliant I guess.

I still think Cav is the favourite, there seem to be loads of stages for the pure sprinters, but I'm hopeful Kittel more than Goss will make it interesting, I think the Giro is showing Cav is still a step above Goss. Goss can win, but everything has to go right, Cav can win even if he/sky get things a little wrong.

 

[Catwhoorg]

He is certainly going to make the fight for Green more interesting than I thought it would be a few months ago.

Cav is the favorite for sure, but Goss, Sagan, Kitel (and others) can each help themselves out by sneaking points here and there, and it only takes one incident, where Cav gets no placing (hold up/minor crash) and they do to leave one of them sitting pretty.

 

[gustienordic]

He is certainly going to make the fight for Green more interesting than I thought it would be a few months ago.

Cav is the favorite for sure, but Goss, Sagan, Kitel (and others) can each help themselves out by sneaking points here and there, and it only takes one incident, where Cav gets no placing (hold up/minor crash) and they do to leave one of them sitting pretty.

It should make it a more exciting race, but there are too many flat stages... Cav will most likely win, barring a crash. Gossy is the second fastest on the flat, and Kittel will be up there. Don't forget Farrar or Griepel; they most likely won't win any stages, but are sure to be in the top 10 plenty. I see Sagan being the best climber of the sprinters, but breakaways usually win the stages that would eliminate Goss.

 

[SHAD0W93]

It should make it a more exciting race, but there are too many flat stages... Cav will most likely win, barring a crash. Gossy is the second fastest on the flat, and Kittel will be up there. Don't forget Farrar or Griepel; they most likely won't win any stages, but are sure to be in the top 10 plenty. I see Sagan being the best climber of the sprinters, but breakaways usually win the stages that would eliminate Goss.

Greipel and maybe Kittel are faster then Goss.

 

[GIBO SIMONI]

Rojas was consistant, which is what the green jersey is about. He was also much more versatile than Cav, which is why he was up there - didn't see Cav finishing 4th on Mont des Alouettes, or 11th on Mûr-de-Bretagne...

What so you think mr top 5 man rojas deserved the green jersey,i always thought winning multiple stages and being consistent is what it's all about,but i suppose you thought hushovd and ale jet were more impressive lol when they won theirs.

 

[42x16ss]

Greipel and maybe Kittel are faster then Goss.

Maybe, however Goss should get a much better leadout than Greipel who will probably only have Adam Hansen due to Van den Broeck's GC ambitions. Kittel is probably Goss' equal on a flat finish but harder finishes and intermediate stages will favour Goss.

 

[SHAD0W93]

Maybe, however Goss should get a much better leadout than Greipel who will probably only have Adam Hansen due to Van den Broeck's GC ambitions. Kittel is probably Goss' equal on a flat finish but harder finishes and intermediate stages will favour Goss.

All Greipel needs is to POSITION himself better. But I would say he is faster then both if it is an uphill finish. Maybe Greipel could beat him if he did not start 30 guys back.

 

[karlboss]

All Greipel needs is to POSITION himself better. But I would say he is faster then both if it is an uphill finish. Maybe Greipel could beat him if he did not start 30 guys back.

The reason he appears so fast is that he starts 30 back.

 

[CQmanager]

What a beast this kid is ... just amazing talent

 

[dlwssonic]

I'm leaning to the pure sprinters for now.

 

[FabulousCandelabra]

Sagan is always in 100% beast mode, which means he can win anything he wants. With pure talent oozing out of his ears, I bet he can go on to win GT's when he gets bored of winning all the sprints and classics.

 

[taiwan]

Yes.

10 chars.

 

[Armchair cyclist]

The UK Postal mountain train that we saw today seems to suggest that GC is such a plausible goal that few resources will be left for Cav: There will be no HTC style train for him, and although he can obviously win stages without a 4 man lead out, I don't see him winning many of them, so the Green is very open. With no one dominant well supported sprinter to win the vast majority of flattish stages, Sagan has to have a decent chance.