Can Schleck really beat Contador in TDF

Oct 27, 2009
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Years ago i used to watch the tour,then because of well life in general and work commitments i sort of lost interest.Forward to 09 Armstrong's come back i wanted to see how he would do.He did brilliantly in the tour,but never in my option looked like winning.Lots of people seem to think Andy Schleck is the main threat to Contador.I hope this is not the case because Schleck as much as i like him is no where good enough to beat AC.His TT is not good enough, his climbing is fantastic is not as strong enough to seriously compete against AC.Well thats my view LA might well be Contadors main danger,i just hope some one can come from some where to make 2010 TDF the best ever.
 
Yes Andy Schleck can beat Alberto. Andy is 23. He's only going to get stronger in both climbing and TT'ing. I don't know if he'll bridge the gap between he and AC in 2010, but I expect the race to be closer and more competitive between those two than it was this year (assuming AC finds a strong team).
 
From what we have seen so far the guess would be no. I can't remember Andy riding away from Contador in any real mountain stages. So far when Andy has attacked I think Contador has been able to follow. For Andy to be able to beat Contador in a GT he needs to be able to leave Contador in his tracks in the mountains and get enough time to not lose it all in the TTs.

However, Andy is one of the most promising climbers out there so if anyone is going to beat Contador in the mountains then it's likely to be him. I think there are several riders that are able to follow each other for the most part but it takes another level to actually get a gap on someone.
 
Oct 8, 2009
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I don't think Schleck can beat Contador in 2010. Maybe in 2011 or 2012,but in 2010 i can't see it happening
 
The only way I see Andy Schleck winning the Tour the France against Contador, is if he massively improves in the time trial.

I don't see Andy gaining to much time on Contador in the mountains to compensate his inferior time trial
 
That is why they 'play the game'

It puts all the chatter to rest.

AC got better at TT from 07 to 09, so why can't AS?

As long as everyone stays healthy and doesn't get sidelined by something 'flukey' it should be very exciting.
 
ggusta said:
It puts all the chatter to rest.

AC got better at TT from 07 to 09, so why can't AS?

As long as everyone stays healthy and doesn't get sidelined by something 'flukey' it should be very exciting.

Yes, Contador got better in TT. But he was allways good in time trial. His first big results in cycling were on that discipline. Schleck never showed that quality in the TT.
 
Aug 12, 2009
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ggusta said:
It puts all the chatter to rest.

AC got better at TT from 07 to 09, so why can't AS?

As long as everyone stays healthy and doesn't get sidelined by something 'flukey' it should be very exciting.

Andy was roughly 2'00" behind AC in the Annecy ITT. Not bad given he was 3'30" back in 2008. He improved heaps, but so did AC over that period. Brother Frank improved heaps as well. He dropped 5 minutes the year before and nocked 1'30" off that. The ITT was 10km's shorter but AS has grown in that department. Nibali was 5 seconds slower than Andy and Lance was only 15 faster.

But Andy will have to either improve by leaps and bounds or hope that something happens to Contador if he is to win. To Saxo's credit, their riders at least attacked Astana in the ITT and on Verbier. Everyone else seemed to sit back and let Astana dictate this year, a scene unlikely to be repeated next year. I hope the Chicken gets a ride, he'll give AC a run in the hills.
 
Oct 15, 2009
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Really difficult. Not in 2010 in my opinion. Andy should improve not only in the TTs, but also in the climbs, because Contador is better than him in both places right now.
 
I think it of course depends on Contador as well. We are all assuming that Contador will be consistent and at the same high level in the coming years and perhaps he will but if he isn't then lots of people can beat him and Andy looks to be one of the best of the rest.
 
A

Anonymous

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This is what's going to make the future of cycling fun to watch. AC and Andy and still really young and have lots of good racing left in them, unlike everyone's fav rider LA. ;)

I just think if Andy does what he has to do to improve his TT skills we'll have a lot of epic battles between the two. It doesn't hurt that he has Cancelerra around to pass on some of his TT knowledge.

Maybe Farrar can step it up a notch as well and give Cav some hell!

The future of cycling is looking fun.
 
Long-term i think absolutely he can. By that I don't mean to say that he will. Andy will have to improve his TTing, but if he's able to make similar improvements to Contador he'll be a very serious threat.

Contador didn't start winning major races until his 5th full season with the big boys, and that's what Andy is heading into. I'll take Andy's results in his formative years (Liege, 2nd in Giro, behind dope fiend Di Luca, 2nd in Tour) over Alberto's (2nd in Tour de Romandie, 3rd in Basque Country, Stage in Tour of CH) any day. By 2011 I'll expect him to be fully capable of matching Contador in the mountains, and then it'll be a question of team strength and TTing.
 
I believe he'll do it if:
-ITT skills are improved drastically
-Get more explosiveness in the mountains.
-Remains with Saxo or goes to Another strong team.
-AC declines in fitness/form
-Another Contenders fall behind/won't improve as much (Nibali, Kreuziger, Wiggings, Gesink etc)
 
Gee333 said:
This is what's going to make the future of cycling fun to watch. AC and Andy and still really young and have lots of good racing left in them, unlike everyone's fav rider LA. ;)

I just think if Andy does what he has to do to improve his TT skills we'll have a lot of epic battles between the two. It doesn't hurt that he has Cancelerra around to pass on some of his TT knowledge.

Maybe Farrar can step it up a notch as well and give Cav some hell!

The future of cycling is looking fun.

He's being trained by Bobby Jullich to improve his time trial.:)
 
Apr 12, 2009
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Sadly I think Schleck might become the next raymond poulidor, I mean contador is more likely to improve next year , he'll be what 27 next year he'll probably peak at about 29-30 years old, so he'll probably have about three more years before he starts to deteriorate, but it will be a great battle for many years.
 
Oct 27, 2009
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Most people think the same as me,i really hope its not so.Contador will get better he in my opinion,I think he has more natural ability as well.You guys know much more about pro cycling than I do,who has the most potential of the new guys coming up.I am a big fan of Schleck but for me as long as AC is fit and healthy I cant see AS really winning:(.Is AC a future superstar Stephen Roche is not convinced,I remember him saying so at the end of the tour?
 

Polish

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Mar 11, 2009
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genetically gifted

Every ten years or so we typically see a cyclist who is truly genetically gifted.

Eddy, Hinault/LeMond, Big Mig, Lance, and now Alberto.

He will be hard to beat!
 
Sep 25, 2009
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i agree with those who predict that andy will only improve.

heck, at 23 he already has two gt podiums. ggusta put his finger on how a pure climber can improve his time trialing. i think in andy’s case though tt improvement will have to come from power increase as he matures and his muscles get more efficient. he can certainly improve his aerodynamics too but i am afraid a lanky tall rider like him can do only so much with his position.

can he beat contador? I don’t know but if we recall 2008 giro contador looked vulnerable and was dropped more than once by several climbers. yeah that's a distant memory after berto's dominating this year.

one aspect of andy's climbing is likely NEVER equal contador's - the jump - so he should work on not becoming basso.

i certainly look forward to the new generation's fireworks. hopefully armstrong will disappear from the racing scene after the next season and the new generation will take over.
 

Polish

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Mar 11, 2009
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python said:
hopefully armstrong will disappear from the racing scene after the next season and the new generation will take over.

Even after Lance re-retires, we can still discuss him thank goodness.

Heck, we still talk about Eddy and he has been retired for 30 odd years;)
 
DarkWing said:
me to.
I think ras is the best bet to beat alberto in the near future -if he gets to race.

If ras crashes 4 times in the tt, I guess that means he is clean. If he catches the tt rider ahead of him, I guess not. He is pretty damaged goods in my book. And as I have said before, he has lots of company in the damaged goods bin. But still...
 
python said:
i agree with those who predict that andy will only improve.

heck, at 23 he already has two gt podiums. ggusta put his finger on how a pure climber can improve his time trialing. i think in andy’s case though tt improvement will have to come from power increase as he matures and his muscles get more efficient. he can certainly improve his aerodynamics too but i am afraid a lanky tall rider like him can do only so much with his position.

can he beat contador? I don’t know but if we recall 2008 giro contador looked vulnerable and was dropped more than once by several climbers. yeah that's a distant memory after berto's dominating this year.

one aspect of andy's climbing is likely NEVER equal contador's - the jump - so he should work on not becoming basso.

i certainly look forward to the new generation's fireworks. hopefully armstrong will disappear from the racing scene after the next season and the new generation will take over.

He hadn't trained at ALL before the 2008 Giro. I believe he said the first mountains he rode up where those at the Giro. So, yes if he comes to the TdF having not trained, he's going to get bested by a number of folks. Including AS.
 
Jun 20, 2009
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I would love to see AS beat Contador or anyone beat him for that matter. I think the only way it will happen this year is if Contador crashes out or gets caught doping. Of course if he gets caught it will be a year after the race is done and they've gone through all the samples. :rolleyes: