Can Schleck really beat Contador in TDF

[Publicus]

Interesting...

I like you're attitude Ripper - who is your tip then?

Someone who can climb with AC, and then take out time on a 50km TT - hmmm, Cadel? Levi? The two who almost beat him in 2007? Schleck? Armstrong?

Neither Cadel nor Levi can climb with AC. And if my memory serves me correctly, AC has been the better TT'er of the threesome over the last year. Plus Levi is officially a neutered rider at this point and Cadel is at BMC. I'd scratch those two off the list of potential podium finishers.

 

[python]

there is no psychological war between andy and contador. and i can hardly see 'a war' because the two riders respect each other. nothing like the twit attacks from armstrong cos he could not match contador in an honest battle.

the kids are just playing with words and the media slurps it...

 

[Publicus]

Someone will rise from the ashes to take it away from a complacent Contrador.

btw: Schleck is just beginning the psyche wars. He fully thinks he can be better prepared than AC.

Has Baby Schlecklett said this or are you guessing?

 

[RedFury]

Headlines are often inaccurate and that is the case here. If you read the entire article you can se that Contador doesn't say that, he simply says that he will have to work harder because the route is less favorable for him. He doesn't actually deny being the favorite.

Meh. I know they are on friendly terms and none of this means much beyond, perhaps, a futile attempt to take pressure off of themselves.

I mean look at this statement from Conta:

The upcoming Tour is definitely to the advantage of Andy. The focus is on the mountain stages, there are merely two time trials. The long time trial is on the penultimate day, where the condition will make the difference. For a specialist time trialer like me it is harder to make a difference

-- bolding mine.

Please. Sure, there's no debating that at this moment in time, Alberto is the (much) better TTer of the two. But I doubt many here would advance the argument that adding more mountains favors Andy over Alberto, because until proven otherwise, Contador is also the better climber.

On a personal note, as a Spaniard I am a huge fan of Conta, but by the same token, I also like Andy. Having said that, and taking into account that sports in general are far from exact science, all things considered I expect Alberto to lord over the TdF for at least the next two years. And I think that is only being cautiously optimistic. As for Andy, his time will come...just not in the very near future.

 

[Cerberus]

Please. Sure, there's no debating that at this moment in time, Alberto is the (much) better TTer of the two. But I doubt many here would advance the argument that adding more mountains favors Andy over Alberto, because until proven otherwise, Contador is also the better climber.

Yeah it's a bit of a silly comment, I supose that the route does favour Schleck in the sense that the difference is less in the mountains that in the TT, but unless Schleck improves significantly it's just a question of the margin of victory.

On a personal note, as a Spaniard I am a huge fan of Conta, but by the same token, I also like Andy. Having said that, and taking into account that sports in general are far from exact science, all things considered I expect Alberto to lord over the TdF for at least the next two years. And I think that is only being cautiously optimistic. As for Andy, his time will come...just not in the very near future.

I don't think you can find many people who will disagree with that, not among people who know anything about cycling anyways. Hell, Schleck says he hopes to be on the same level as Contador in 2-3 years time, so he doesn't even disagree with you.

 

[scribe]

Has Baby Schlecklett said this or are you guessing?

He hasn't said this and I am not guessing. Did that help at all?

 

[peloton]

He hasn't said this and I am not guessing. Did that help at all?

BS as usual.
Andy never said it, scribe can't provide a link because there isn't one.

 

[scribe]

BS as usual.
Andy never said it, scribe can't provide a link because there isn't one.

You win. There isn't a link other than the comment he made that AC will be better than him. But don't worry. AC will probably start to believe him too. Wait until he begins to believe he was wrong in the mountains next summer. Either way, AS wins with comments like that.

 

[peloton]

You win. There isn't a link other than the comment he made that AC will be better than him. But don't worry. AC will probably start to believe him too. Wait until he begins to believe he was wrong in the mountains next summer. Either way, AS wins with comments like that.

With comments like what? They both complimented each other?
I don't care which one wins, I really like them both.
I just hope they both crush LA again.

 

[Publicus]

He hasn't said this and I am not guessing. Did that help at all?

It does. Thanks.

 

[karlboss]

I'm hoping for a 4 pronged attack from liquigas, basso another year under his belt, the kids some further improvement, and the ace in the sleeze pelizotti, long range attack for mountains points...oh bolloc ks we just lost minutes to someone who can hang on.

 

[Anonymous]

.. he can, and he will..

 

[irishpeloton]

I'm hoping for a 4 pronged attack from liquigas,

There's no way Liquigas will send Basso, Kreuziger, Nibali and Pellizotti to the Tour. I've read recent interviews with Nibali and Pellizotti and it seems that the squad is far from harmonious. All of them want to be team leader, Nibali even tried to jump ship to Sky this year but failed. I think Basso will be the one to bite the bullet again, he'll rock the boat too much if he's included in the Tour team. Both Nibali and Kreuziger will be one year older and one year wiser and they both did pretty good in the Last Tour. I'd imagine a very similar leader lineup this year that they had last year.

Giro: Pellizotti and Basso
Tour:Nibali, Kreuziger, Pellizotti
Vuelta:Basso,Kreuziger

Frankly, I'm really surprised they've all still remained for next season.

 

[karlboss]

hoping not expecting. I'd expect Astana to be looking for one guy this standard up a hill or BMC.

 

[Ripper]

Interesting...

I like you're attitude Ripper - who is your tip then?

Someone who can climb with AC, and then take out time on a 50km TT - hmmm, Cadel? Levi? The two who almost beat him in 2007? Schleck? Armstrong?

Sorry, been off and away

Well, it looks to be a climber's race next year, so perhaps Schleck or Evans, or Sastre, or someone on the rise. I don't think it will be Levi, but then again, he has finished very closely to Contra on 2 occasions, so who really knows. I would not be surprised if Contra gets popped for something next year though, but I could just be an armchair cynic

 

[Walshworld]

Schleck beat Contador? Not until the party stops.

I had a chance to talk with Garmin's Jonathan Vaughters two weeks ago at a cocktail party. I asked him that exact question and his answer was a solid no. The reason is that Andy likes to party too much while Conador is in bed by 9 every night. According to Vaughters, Andy would have to make a major personality change to step up to Alberto's level. Let's hope he does.
Twisted Spoke
http://walshworld.wordpress.com/

 

[DavidVilla7]

I had a chance to talk with Garmin's Jonathan Vaughters two weeks ago at a cocktail party. I asked him that exact question and his answer was a solid no. The reason is that Andy likes to party too much while Conador is in bed by 9 every night. According to Vaughters, Andy would have to make a major personality change to step up to Alberto's level. Let's hope he does.
Twisted Spoke
http://walshworld.wordpress.com/

Sorry, but spaniards don't go to bed at 9. Even when your name is Contador.
Only during a tour maybe, than he needs rest.

But i think vaughter was exxagarating or being sarcastic.

 

[ak-zaaf]

Sorry, but spaniards don't go to bed at 9. Even when your name is Contador.
Only during a tour maybe, than he needs rest.

But i think vaughter was exxagarating or being sarcastic.

He just used a cycling cliche as an example. I think he's right. Andy sees it all a bit as fun & games while Contador is very serious and determined.
This still means Schleck lives the life of a monk compared to 'regular' people, but at the top the little things can make the difference.

 

[Publicus]

He just used a cycling cliche as an example. I think he's right. Andy sees it all a bit as fun & games while Contador is very serious and determined.
This still means Schleck lives the life of a monk compared to 'regular' people, but at the top the little things can make the difference.

I'm guessing almost dying has a way of focusing you on the tasks at hand. Maybe when Andy gets a bit older, he'll establish the habits necessary to put him over the top.

 

[ak-zaaf]

I'm guessing almost dying has a way of focusing you on the tasks at hand. Maybe when Andy gets a bit older, he'll establish the habits necessary to put him over the top.

He should get someone pregnant. That might help

 

[Publicus]

He should get someone pregnant. That might help

LOL. Not if he's not mature enough to handle it.

 

[Psalmon]

Alberto can not be overcome right now. He is the total package.

He TTs not just fast, but confident in his power over distance. His climbing is equally terrifying. On Verbier he had a VAM of almost 1900, estimated at a 6.7 W/kg output, on a switchback, alternating wind, moderate gradient course. Aside from accelerations, he brings the real sustainable power.

Above all, those things build the necessary psychological barrier that keeps the other players in check. It means his mere presence keeps attacks down, essentially putting him in control. With TT ability in addition, he'll just nip time from everyone climbing (if not destroy the field like in Andorra) and then TT the rest.

The most powerful asset Armstrong possessed was what people believed he was capable of, the fear of that. The closest Ulrich and the rest ever came to unseating him was when they believed Armstrong was vulnerable in 2003. They should have hammered him the day after the ITT "dehydration", but did not and LA recovered enough by stg 15.

Team? Anything will feel more supportive than this last year.

Possessing the psychological edge and then being able to deliver, Contador will have to fail himself somehow (physically bad day, crash, etc.), for someone to beat him, AS or anyone else.

 

[karlboss]

I think paris nice showed vulnerability. Sure it was a food bonk, but i think it was brought about by lack of team support and the feeling he was the strongest and had to personally match every acceleration. If he has that feeling at the tour he'll again be vulnerable.

 

[Publicus]

I think paris nice showed vulnerability. Sure it was a food bonk, but i think it was brought about by lack of team support and the feeling he was the strongest and had to personally match every acceleration. If he has that feeling at the tour he'll again be vulnerable.

I think he learned that lesson this year. I was pretty surprised that he didn't try to win the Dauphine. Similarly at the TdF, you'll notice he didn't try to cover EVERY attack. He kept his eyes on the Schleck's for the most part. Hopefully his team is strong enough to give him that luxury again next year, and that he recognizes that none of the other favorites can afford to allow someone up the road any more than he can.

 

[karlboss]

I think he learned that lesson this year. I was pretty surprised that he didn't try to win the Dauphine. Similarly at the TdF, you'll notice he didn't try to cover EVERY attack. He kept his eyes on the Schleck's for the most part. Hopefully his team is strong enough to give him that luxury again next year, and that he recognizes that none of the other favorites can afford to allow someone up the road any more than he can.

The "feeling" was the critcal part of my post. If he has confidence in his team to control attacks and not attack him...unstoppable. I don't think he has or should have confidence in other teams to control attacks for him.