Can Schleck really beat Contador in TDF

[Angliru]

Evans lost the Tour in 2008 because he was busy marking the yellow jersey at the time (Frank Schleck) instead of the Sastre, who was a more realistic threat given Frank's abysmal record in the ITT. Had Evans responded immediately to Sastre's attack instead of shadowing Frank Schleck he likely would have saved the Tour for himself. Instead he lost 2 minutes to Sastre that he couldn't make up for later. It was poor tactics on his and his team's part.

 

[avanti]

Given a bit of good luck I believe there are probably 10 to 20 riders who could win - (remember Óscar Pereiro a few years ago) - so one of the Schleck brothers could win - either on their own/team merits or with a stroke of luck.

Who would have predicted Andy Hampsten to win the Giro in 1988?

 

[ImmaculateKadence]

It puts all the chatter to rest.

AC got better at TT from 07 to 09, so why can't AS?

As long as everyone stays healthy and doesn't get sidelined by something 'flukey' it should be very exciting.

Agreed.

I do wonder though about the strength (and uncertainty) of AC's team. I'm afraid if AC has weak team support, he won't be able to stave off numerous attacks from other teams. If that's the case, Andy could beat him, but before any of this happens, he has to improve his TT.

 

[Publicus]

Agreed.

I do wonder though about the strength (and uncertainty) of AC's team. I'm afraid if AC has weak team support, he won't be able to stave off numerous attacks from other teams. If that's the case, Andy could beat him, but before any of this happens, he has to improve his TT.

The best way to stave off numerous attacks, is to attack/counter-attack. Something AC excels at doing. As they say in the States, a good offense is a good defense.

 

[ImmaculateKadence]

Do you think he could really sustain that effort? I mean he's an incredible rider, but you can't win the tour alone.

 

[Galic Ho]

Contador and a weaker team. Doubt it. Not as strong as this year, but that won't happen anytime soon either. Astana left out Horner. He'd have made any other squad he is that good. Astana isn't all of a sudden the worst team in the peloton. They've made some good buys.

Look at it this way. Who was the weapon on Astana in 2009? The attacking rider who punches the competition out of the park. It is Contador alone. None of the others could do what he did. Ask yourself this? If Contador was sick and missed the Tour, would an Astana rider have won? Would Evans, Sastre and Menchov have faltered? Andy Schleck would have won by about a minute.

Progression of attacks and the timing depends on one thing. Who is in yellow. All Contador has to ensure is that he isn't in yellow after the prologue and if he is, let a breakaway get five minutes in the first week. Make the sprinters teams do a lot of leading in the peloton. HTC have more than been willing to do this the last two seasons.

Contador can win the Tour alone. He doesn't need someone to hold his hand in the hills. So how does he race? In a group and waits for the right time to attack in the hills. He'll have a team mate with him. Not that help will be necessary. If there is no team mate to set pace, then hold back. Alternatively set a really high tempo. The type the rest cannot match. When people say "you can't win the tour alone" I believe the biggest assumption they make is that as favourite you have to set the entire pace and make all the attacks.

Not the case. Counter attack and let idiots do the major work. Like Radioshack. Those goofballs set pace soo hard this year in Astana colours that the only rider they didn't hurt was Contador. They'll do it again next year. Alberto just has to sit back and wait. They can't make him race. If they don't go hard they know he'll win in a sprint in the final kilometre and pump them in the ITT...so opponents will lead and set a hard tempo. Unfortunately when you are as good as Contador, tag teaming doesn't work, mainly because the attacks in the mountains are never sufficient to drop a rider of his calibre. Heck there were none this year. Schleck, Contador and Evans were the only GC boys who made attacks of some kind in the hills.

AS and AC have the first two spots taken for next years Tour. Everyone else can squabble over third.

 

[ggusta]

No LA cannot win the 2010 Tour, at least he's significantly less likely to than AS. First of all if Radioshack is stronger than Saxo Bank it's not by much. I'll grant the experience and even the mental strength, but it just doesn't make up for the fact that he couldn't follow either AS or AC on the climbs in 2009, and the gap is more likely to increase than to shrink in 2010. Even if it did shrink, AC beat him by 5,5 minutes and the only reason the gap wasn't larger was because the only person who needed to drop LA was Frank Schleck who couldn't. Either AC or AS could probably have dropped him easily so if anything the huge gap in 2009 understates the difference between AC and LA. He won’t make up that gap barring a crash or Evans impersonation from AC and if that happens AS is next in line for the win.

Hate to sound like a Lance hater (!), but at the risk of getting this thread moved to another forum:

Just what would it take for His Lance-ness to win the tdf in 2010?

(OK, part of me admits to enjoying the stirring of the pot.)

 

[Publicus]

Hate to sound like a Lance hater (!), but at the risk of getting this thread moved to another forum:

Just what would it take to for His Lanceness to win the tdf in 2010?

(OK, part of me admits to enjoying the stirring of the pot.)

You know I was thinking that would be a good thread. Maybe closer to the TdF, but what are the strategy and tactics RadioShack would need to use to put Lance on top of the podium. Similar threads could be devoted to Saxo Bank (the Schlecks), [insert team here] (for Alberto) and some of the other GC contenders.

 

[ggusta]

You know I was thinking that would be a good thread. Maybe closer to the TdF, but what are the strategy and tactics RadioShack would need to use to put Lance on top of the podium. Similar threads could be devoted to Saxo Bank (the Schlecks), [insert team here] (for Alberto) and some of the other GC contenders.

All due respect to AS and any other GC contender, but no one arouses the passions of my fellow forum rats like AC and LA, so no point in bringing others into it with the tdf 8 or 9 months away. Maybe in April we'll open it to the 'cooler' (less passion arousing) contenders.

 

[karlboss]

I'll bite...and I hate you for it.

I think that for lance to win, he'd have to be willing to see LL or AK win. None of them are strong enough to be supported as sole leader and beat AC or AS, so they have to gamble, try to pull a rasmussen more than a periero.

 

[iliveonnitro]

I'll bite...and I hate you for it.

I think that for lance to win, he'd have to be willing to see LL or AK win. None of them are strong enough to be supported as sole leader and beat AC or AS, so they have to gamble, try to pull a rasmussen more than a periero.

Agreed. The only problem is that AC can now drop LL, AK, and LA. It would be much better if all 3 were closely matched climbers.

I think it will be Frank/Andy Schleck vs AC in the climbs, similar to AC/LL against Rasmussen.

 

[scott42138]

The only way Andy can win is if he forgets about Frank's GC position. Frank can lead Andy to victory but they have to decide to sacrifice Frank. Andy cannot hold back for his brother.

 

[Ripper]

OK, so I might have had too much wine tonight.

Nevertheless, I figure sometimes you just need to put something out there, and if you're wrong, oh well ... people will let you know.

So I figured I'd state it here and I can teased next year if I am wrong.

Contra will not win the TdF in 2010.

 

[ggusta]

OK, so I might have had too much wine tonight.

Nevertheless, I figure sometimes you just need to put something out there, and if you're wrong, oh well ... people will let you know.

So I figured I'd state it here and I can teased next year if I am wrong.

Contra will not win the TdF in 2010.

Tell us more about what you have been drinking.

 

[Bill Lumbergh]

Am I the only one who thinks that Wiggins won't be in contention in the TdF? The added climbs and less TTs will count against him, surely?

Plus he'll be much more of a marked man than this year, where he managed to position himself fairly well without arousing the suspicions of the otehr teams.

 

[Angliru]

Given a bit of good luck I believe there are probably 10 to 20 riders who could win - (remember Óscar Pereiro a few years ago) - so one of the Schleck brothers could win - either on their own/team merits or with a stroke of luck.

Who would have predicted Andy Hampsten to win the Giro in 1988?

I should have specified that I meant at the pivotal moment of Sastre's attack on Alpe D'huez in the 2008 Tour.

 

[ggusta]

Am I the only one who thinks that Wiggins won't be in contention in the TdF? The added climbs and less TTs will count against him, surely?

Plus he'll be much more of a marked man than this year, where he managed to position himself fairly well without arousing the suspicions of the otehr teams.

I think you have a lot of company.

 

[ak-zaaf]

Agreed. The only problem is that AC can now drop LL, AK, and LA. It would be much better if all 3 were closely matched climbers.

I think it will be Frank/Andy Schleck vs AC in the climbs, similar to AC/LL against Rasmussen.

Could you please type names. AC and LA, ok. But when I hear LL I think of Sanchez. AK is a lot of things, but not a German guy. etc.

 

[thehog]

http://www.velonation.com/News/ID/2...ect-to-be-stronger-than-Contador-in-2010.aspx

 

[Anonymous]

http://www.velonation.com/News/ID/2175/Schlek-doesnt-expect-to-be-stronger-than-Contador-in-2010.aspx

"Schleck doesn't expect to be stronger than Contador in 2010"

a bit of rope-a-dope by Schleck? (don't take dope literally here)

 

[Anonymous]

OK, so I might have had too much wine tonight.

.....

Contra will not win the TdF in 2010.

Interesting...

I like you're attitude Ripper - who is your tip then?

Someone who can climb with AC, and then take out time on a 50km TT - hmmm, Cadel? Levi? The two who almost beat him in 2007? Schleck? Armstrong?

 

[scribe]

Someone will rise from the ashes to take it away from a complacent Contrador.

btw: Schleck is just beginning the psyche wars. He fully thinks he can be better prepared than AC.

 

[ExRower]

while I am rooting for AC. I know that Lance is better tactically. This makes July 2010 more exciting because the TdF can be won if you have the tactical finesse to make up for what you lack in physical strength. Lance vs AC, and AS who should be stronger next year. I cannot wait for the TdF to begin!

 

[RedFury]

http://www.velonation.com/News/ID/2175/Schlek-doesnt-expect-to-be-stronger-than-Contador-in-2010.aspx

"Schleck doesn't expect to be stronger than Contador in 2010"

a bit of rope-a-dope by Schleck? (don't take dope literally here)

Maybe. But two can play that game:

Contador sees Schleck as favorite for 2010 Tour

 

[Cerberus]

Maybe. But two can play that game:

Contador sees Schleck as favorite for 2010 Tour

Headlines are often inaccurate and that is the case here. If you read the entire article you can se that Contador doesn't say that, he simply says that he will have to work harder because the route is less favorable for him. He doesn't actually deny being the favorite.