Cancellara's risky bet - focus on LBL, Lombardia...

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May 5, 2009
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maybe not in the 2011 season yet, according to today's interview:

http://www.cyclingnews.com/news/cancellara-says-leopard-trek-must-prove-it-is-a-dream-team

Turning to matters on the road, Cancellara hinted that while adding Liège-Bastogne-Liège and the Tour of Lombardy to his palmares remains an objective, his 2011 spring campaign is likely to be built around the cobbled classics once again.

“Winning all five monuments is a goal, not a dream,” he said, admitting that it may not necessarily happen this season. “The programme is planned until Amstel. I’m planning to be in big form on the start line in Milan, Bruges and Compiègne, along with the rest of the team. I still have Lombardy and Liège in my head, but there is time.”
 
It was over a year ago now, and please correct me if I'm wrong, but I'm sure those mendrisio climbs were no where near as steep as those in Liege.

Just don't see him keeping pace on those climb with the punchy climbers.
 
Feb 18, 2010
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Could it be feasible that Canc and Gilbert would come to an agreement that FC won't challenge in Ronde and PR this year and PG the same in LBL and TdL to help them both in getting closer to the Grand Slam of monuments?
 
Jonny7c said:
Could it be feasible that Canc and Gilbert would come to an agreement that FC won't challenge in Ronde and PR this year and PG the same in LBL and TdL to help them both in getting closer to the Grand Slam of monuments?
Gilbert is yet to win Liege Bastogne Liege so its unlikely he would agree to skip that. Moreover as a native of Liege and as a hilly specialist, its probably the race he most wants to win.

And Cancellara is nowhere near Giro di Lombardia form yet and is highly unlikely to win it this year so it would be stupid for him to swap RVV for GDL, unless the deal is that Gilbert doesnt ride GDL in 2013 or something. Also, if Canc skips RVV or PR, Gilberts chances of winning them rise significantly as there are fewer cobbled specialists, whereas Canc still has to face down 10 other hilly specialists if Gilbert doesnt do GdL or LBL.

If hes not good enough to take a peloton with Gilbert at LBL or GdL hes not going to be good enough to take a peloton without Gilbert at those races.

So it would not be a tit for tat move. Gilbert has a lot more to gain from such a deal, but i dont think it would happen anyway.
 
Feb 18, 2010
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The Hitch said:
Gilbert is yet to win Liege Bastogne Liege so its unlikely he would agree to skip that. Moreover as a native of Liege and as a hilly specialist, its probably the race he most wants to win.

And Cancellara is nowhere near Giro di Lombardia form yet and is highly unlikely to win it this year so it would be stupid for him to swap RVV for GDL, unless the deal is that Gilbert doesnt ride GDL in 2013 or something. Also, if Canc skips RVV or PR, Gilberts chances of winning them rise significantly as there are fewer cobbled specialists, whereas Canc still has to face down 10 other hilly specialists if Gilbert doesnt do GdL or LBL.

If hes not good enough to take a peloton with Gilbert at LBL or GdL hes not going to be good enough to take a peloton without Gilbert at those races.

So it would not be a tit for tat move. Gilbert has a lot more to gain from such a deal, but i dont think it would happen anyway.
Fair comment. I just felt that both riders would have a much better chances of attaining the Grand Slam without the other challenging and therefore would both stand to gain in the long run. Though perhaps as you say PG would need to win LBL first.
 
Jonny7c said:
Fair comment. I just felt that both riders would have a much better chances of attaining the Grand Slam without the other challenging and therefore would both stand to gain in the long run. Though perhaps as you say PG would need to win LBL first.
The better deal would be to have Spartacus work for Gilbert in RVV and the other way round in Liege/ Lombardy.

Actually for Gilbert the best deal would be to have Canc work for him at MSR a race i dont see him winning as easily as others here do. Have Canc go on the Cipressa descent, messing up the pack and tt Gilbert to the Poggio were Gilbert uses his own climbing and descending skills to get a bit of a gap and hope he can hold on.

For Cancellara have Gilbert attack constantly at LBL while team Leopard works for Canc, then on one final attack bring Cancellara with him and pace him as far as he can, then have Canc do the rest.

Neither provides guaranteed or even probable success but both can be helpful.

Neither is going to happen either, but interesting scenarios.
 
Jul 16, 2010
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I can't see Canc helping Gilbert in LBL. Too many hills in quick succession. If, in a hypthetical situation, he wanted to help Gilbert in a monument it's going to be either MSR or GDL. We've seen at the Tour that Cancellara can set a good pace on long climbs. He could do the same in GDL until he drops off to the back after running out of steam. But then again, Gilbert didn't really have a great team at GDL this year and still won. And next year, he'll have Jurgen helping him at GDL(he didn't enter this year because he was sick I think).

MSR is obvious, they could both escape and help each other to stay ahead of the sprinters. In a sprint at the finish, Gilbert can easily take on Cancellara.

The biggest problem for Gilbert will always be Paris-Roubaix. He'll have to drop both Boonen and Thor or else he won't win. In all other monuments and classics he can win the sprint in a small group, but not at Paris-Roubaix.

I see a Belgian winning the RVV next year anyway. It's going to be either Boonen or Gilbert. Stybar will also be an interesting factor if he goes to Quick Step. Might be a good domestique for Boonen at the RVV. I just don't hope Devolder wins.

MSR will be won by the sprinters this year(Freire, Boonen, Petacchi, Thor or Cavendish). The RVV by a Belgian. LBL by Andrew. P-R by Thor or Boonen. GDL by Gilbert for the third time in a row ^^. And Cancellara will show good form on the cobbled classics, but not win one.
 
El Pistolero said:
I can't see Canc helping Gilbert in LBL. Too many hills in quick succession. If, in a hypthetical situation, he wanted to help Gilbert in a monument it's going to be either MSR or GDL. We've seen at the Tour that Cancellara can set a good pace on long climbs. He could do the same in GDL until he drops off to the back after running out of steam.

MSR is obvious, they could both escape and help each other to stay ahead of the sprinters. In a sprint at the finish, Gilbert can easily take on Cancellara.
WTF are you talking about :confused:

I didnt say Cancellara would help Gilbert in LBL. I said the other way around. You seem so eager to repost your "Cancellara cant climb" piece for the hundredth time and "Gilbert is faster in a sprint" that you didnt even read the previous comments.

Espeically the bit johnny posted about how it would help them win the GRAND SLAM.

Why would Gilbert want Canc's help at Gdl when hes won it twice already:confused: That brings him no closer to the Grand slam.

And why would Cancellara work with Gilbert at MSR - a race hes already won, and then try to beat him in a sprint. It too brings him no closer to a gran slam, and as he has shown, if he wants to win MSR he doesnt need Gilbert to do it.

Maybe you should read things over and give us a new post ;)
 
Jul 16, 2010
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The Hitch said:
WTF are you talking about :confused:

I didnt say Cancellara would help Gilbert in LBL. I said the other way around. You seem so eager to repost your "Cancellara cant climb" piece for the hundredth time and "Gilbert is faster in a sprint" that you didnt even read the previous comments.

Espeically the bit johnny posted about how it would help them win the GRAND SLAM.

Why would Gilbert want Canc's help at Gdl when hes won it twice already:confused: That brings him no closer to the Grand slam.

And why would Cancellara work with Gilbert at MSR - a race hes already won, and then try to beat him in a sprint. It too brings him no closer to a gran slam, and as he has shown, if he wants to win MSR he doesnt need Gilbert to do it.

Maybe you should read things over and give us a new post ;)
Just because you already won a Monument doesn't mean you don't want to win it again. I was talking about a hypothetical situation. Cancellara cannot help Gilbert at LBL or the other way around(which would be totally stupid). Working together with Cancellara at MSR would greatly augment his changes of victory. And I don't know if you watched MSR in 2008 but Gilbert played a role in Cancellara's victory... It was Gilbert who broke the peloton at the Poggio, not Cancellara.... If Gilbert didn't place his attack on the Poggio it would probably have been a sprinters game once again, unless someone else would have attacked on the Poggio in his place.

The only 2 Monuments where Gilbert and Cancellara would be of any use to each other are GdL and MSR.
Gilbert has shown he can break the peloton at the Poggio, Cancellara has shown he can stay ahead of eveyone else in the part after the Poggio. Hence why they would both be of great use to each other in a race like that. LBL is hill after hill. No way Cancellara can keep up attack after attack there and then do a final attack once more to win the whole thing. He can't even follow Gilbert up the Poggio. And you expect him to drop Gilbert on the Côte de Saint-Nicolas then? The Poggio is a joke compared to the hills of LBL.

The only way Cancellara can come back after he got dropped on a hill is on a descend or on a flat part. Just like at Beijing or at MSR(2008). LBL is hill after hill after hill after hill after hill.

Just like Cancellara is simply better on the cobbles and on the flat, Gilbert will always be better on the hills and the climbs. And I can give you 10 other names to replace Gilbert on the hills and the climbs. While I can only give you a few names to replace the name Cancellara at the cobbles. In fact, at the RVV, I can only give you one other name. And it's useless to talk about P-R because Gilbert never entered it or performed well in it. And neither the RVV, the Omloop or Gent-Wevelgem are an indication that he can do well at P-R.
 
El Pistolero said:
The biggest problem for Gilbert will always be Paris-Roubaix. He'll have to drop both Boonen and Thor or else he won't win. In all other monuments and classics he can win the sprint in a small group, but not at Paris-Roubaix.
Gilbert has beaten Boonen in a sprint before. Why would the sprint in the velodrome be any different?
 
Mar 17, 2009
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uphillstruggle said:
Gilbert has beaten Boonen in a sprint before. Why would the sprint in the velodrome be any different?
If it was at the end of a hilly race on regular roads then it would be a "fair" fight. But a heavier rider seems to have an advantage on pave, so I'd reckon on Boonen having the edge in the Velodrome.
 
Jan 11, 2010
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uphillstruggle said:
Gilbert has beaten Boonen in a sprint before. Why would the sprint in the velodrome be any different?
That was a tactical error by Boonen, he chose the wrong wheel. Boonen is naturally faster.
 
and for 2012 the duel will be Gilbert vs. Valverde, at least in the ardennes.

I predict a 2011 full of glory for Gilbert. Maybe Flandres, or Luik, one of then goes for him
 
Mar 17, 2009
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Aguirre said:
and for 2012 the duel will be Gilbert vs. Valverde, at least in the ardennes.

I predict a 2011 full of glory for Gilbert. Maybe Flandres, or Luik, one of then goes for him
I hope so. His style of riding is the epitome of Panache, IMO.
 
May 5, 2009
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Guess today's strong performance of Cancellara on the Green Mountain in Oman shows that he is slowly working on his transformation to become more competitive in longer climbs. Beating people like Vino and Rodriguez in such a climb is worth a note, I'd say. But he definitely still needs more for a win in LBL, GdL.

In any case, I can't wait for this years cobble and Ardennes classics. Seems with all major contenders in top shape, a few strong classic squads, we have all ingredients for thrilling and great races soon! Viva il ciclismo!
 
Jun 9, 2010
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la.margna said:
Guess today's strong performance of Cancellara on the Green Mountain in Oman shows that he is slowly working on his transformation to become more competitive in longer climbs. Beating people like Vino and Rodriguez in such a climb is worth a note, I'd say. But he definitely still needs more for a win in LBL, GdL.

In any case, I can't wait for this years cobble and Ardennes classics. Seems with all major contenders in top shape, a few strong classic squads, we have all ingredients for thrilling and great races soon! Viva il ciclismo!
If you see the results in Green Mountain you can see that was a weird day... the only real climbers there were Gesink and CVV...
 
May 5, 2009
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Ryaguas said:
If you see the results in Green Mountain you can see that was a weird day... the only real climbers there were Gesink and CVV...
Yeah, can't wait to see the stage's video in order to find out how it developed.
 

Polish

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Mar 11, 2009
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Only three riders have won all 5 Monuments.
(De Vlaeminck, Van Looy, and Eddy)

Fabian has won 3 of them, and will focus on the remaining 2.
This has been his plan for awhile now.
He was focused on the Ronde last year.

When he becomes focused on a given race, he becomes a formidable opponent indeed.
 

Polish

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Mar 11, 2009
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la.margna said:
what is Polish doing in a Pharmstrong-free thread??!!! :D

http://www.velonation.com/News/ID/7479/Cancellara-looks-ahead-to-Worlds-title-and-hour-record.aspx

Changed his mind. Not yet full focus on LBL and GdL, maybe postponed by a year:

"...I am the defending champion in Flanders and Roubaix, and I'm not going back just to wear the number 1," Cancellara told La Gazzetta dello Sport.

[To focus on LBL, he'd skip P-R]
He's bluffing lol.

It IS possible to focus on LBL(stealthily) and still race P-R.
Possible for a hard man at least.

If he had a choice to win LBL or P-R this year, which one do you think he would pick?
 
Nov 30, 2010
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Do we know if race organisers are going to repeat the TdF anti-suspicious-bike change measures?

I don't know why I asked this in a Cancellara thread, it just sort of happened.
 
May 14, 2010
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El Pistolero said:
Well, besides power Cancellara also has a lot of technical skills. So that's why it could suit him(again, I have almost never seen Cancellara descend, so this is just me assuming)

I never said he would've gotten a bigger advantage than Gilbert, but Gilbert has already won it twice.
Cancellara rails turns like no one else. And my money is definitely on him for whatever he sets his mind to. The real difficulty, for us and for his opponents, is figuring out what that is.
 
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