Cavendish: Worlds course is not that hard

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Apr 12, 2010
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Dekker_Tifosi said:
Then agan, as U23 rider. Cavendish was just outside the top 10 in Salzubrg I think, when Ciolek won in a lead group that contained guys like Vanendert, Gavazzi and Gesink...

1 Gerald Ciolek (Germany) 4.00.50 (44.146 km/h)
2 Romain Feillu (France)
3 Alexander Khatuntsev (Russian Federation)
4 Francesco Gavazzi (Italy)
5 Jelle Vanendert (Belgium)
6 Robert Gesink (Netherlands)
7 Jos Van Emden (Netherlands) 0.04
8 Sergey Kolesnikov (Russian Federation) 0.05
9 Edvald Boasson Hagen (Norway)
10 Danilo Wyss (Switzerland)
11 Mark Cavendish (Great Britain)

And this was on a supposedly though course. So... Cavendish is definately not 'without a chance' either.
But with the main favorites being guys like Gilbert and Pozzato, it's not gonna be easy. He'll probably get 'stuck' in a second group again like in Salzburg 2006.
On the final climb of this race there was a crash just before the top which allowed the first six to get away & hold up the rest just enough to cause the split
 
Jul 27, 2009
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hfer07 said:
Is Cavendish aware of the number of teammates he's having? he's either dreaming big or fooling himself....
Add his own countries, plus Roulston from NZ and a few other HTC ring ins. Basically anyone from HTC that hasn't got a national contender will be supporting Cav.

He still has no show.
 
Jun 21, 2009
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I was interested to see that both Cav & Farrar did the entire Vuelta. My guess is that's a sign of targeted preparation - unlike Freire and Hushovd they needed to get all that climbing in their legs to give them a chance of surviving the World's course.
 
roundabout said:
Salzburg was a tough course?

look at the size of the group sprinting for 8th

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LfckV_MCIWY

It's a miracle that the front group stayed away.
Yes Salzburg was a thought to be a though course. Look at the profile. It did end in a big group sprinting behind. But that happens at world championships or though races. We have seen big group sprints at Clasica San Sebastian (50 men) and Amstel Gold Race (35 men) in the past as well...
 
Mar 4, 2010
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Based on the Robbie videos and all the discussions I think the only sprinter that has a good chance to make the final is Freire. Maybe Davis as well who did a very good Vuelta.

As others have pointed out, the big teams will work very hard to isolate Cavendish and Farrar from about the 3rd to last lap. All they care about is bringing their leader to the final 20% section on the final lap where he's going to go.

So I think you'll see a reduced group at that point but with quite a few riders from Spain and Italy still there. Then when say Gilbert goes, as long as he takes one Italian, one Aussie and one Spaniard with him all the workers will stop riding.

The other scenario I think is for one major team to succeed in dragging their sprinter clear. But this guy has to get over the really steep bit which would be very selective in this scenario. So I think Cavendish and Farrar will be dropped if this happens.

Overall I think the Italians and the Spanish will prioritise dropping Cavendish and Farrar as their first strategic goal. On paper they have the teams to do this so I think there's a good chance they will succeed.

My favourites are Gilbert, Evans, Pozzato, Cancellara

Sprinter options for me are Friere and Davis

My wildcards are Vino and Sagan
 
Jun 16, 2009
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The teams that i see looking to split it up with no big sprinter option will be Italy,the netherlands, Switzerland and Belgium.

The teams who have sprinters and could look to split it up are Spain and Australia.

Teams who will be just looking for a sprint are great britain, germany, norway and usa.

With no radios, i think teams such as Spain and Australia will really need to decide before the race if they are going to go for a small bunch sprint or work to split it up for a solo attack for evans in australia's situation.
 
Hahaha, you crack me up ACF

The Netherlands waiting for a sprint? With what sprinter exactly? :D
They'll probably go with the strategy to attack wherever possible or to have as many men as possible in the breakaways.

Van Vliet didn't even select a sprinter.
 
Jun 16, 2009
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Dekker_Tifosi said:
Hahaha, you crack me up ACF

The Netherlands waiting for a sprint? With what sprinter exactly? :D
They'll probably go with the strategy to attack wherever possible or to have as many men as possible in the breakaways.

Van Vliet didn't even select a sprinter.
Oops my bad. I originally had them in there but for some reason swapped them. Sorry D_T
 
Mar 19, 2009
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Interesting race... i have no idea how it will end :S... but going by all the talk in the news I think this is gilberts race to lose... The italians didnt even select a sprinter...... so to me it seems this wont end in a big sprint... although looking at the results of the race on the same course(but shorter) I don't think a big bunch will be far behind.... for me gilbert is going to winout of a small group that doesnt contain cavendish..
 
May 27, 2010
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palmerq said:
Interesting race... i have no idea how it will end :S... but going by all the talk in the news I think this is gilberts race to lose... The italians didnt even select a sprinter...... so to me it seems this wont end in a big sprint... although looking at the results of the race on the same course(but shorter) I don't think a big bunch will be far behind.... for me gilbert is going to winout of a small group that doesnt contain cavendish..
Actually the 130km race was in Ballerat (I dont think i spelt that right) not Geelong. It wasn't the same course at all.
 
Mar 4, 2010
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I can actually see Evans repeating on this course. He is so doggedly tenacious and can grovel to the right wheel and then go e.g. Mendrisio

But if its guys like Pozzato, Cancellara, Evans, Gilbert in the final I can see Pozzato trying to go for the long one, Cancellara dragging him back then Gilbert taking the gift.

Maybe this time no-one will let Evans go like in Mendrisio.

The more I think about it the more I think it will be Gilbert (outspring some breakaways) or Freire (sprinting from a group of 15-20).

But *maybe* Cancellara can win solo on this course.... if he learned anything from Mendrisio where he was the strongest but wasted it all showboating.

I dont think anyone else can.
 
Apr 26, 2010
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Afgelopen weekend reed de Brit van Columbia voor het eerst over de klimmetjes van Geelong. "Tot nu toe had ik de omloop nog niet met mijn eigen ogen gezien. Ik liet me enkele algemene details influisteren. Op basis daarvan achtte ik de regenboogtrui haalbaar."

"Nu ik er zelf ben overgereden, moet ik mijn oordeel herzien. Dit wordt allicht iets te zwaar voor mij", zegt de Brit met de snelle benen in de kranten.

translate:
Last weekend, drove the British Columbia for the first time on the climbs of Geelong. "So far I have not the circuit with my own eyes. I let myself suggest some general details. On that basis, I considered the rainbow jersey feasible."

"Now I myself am driving, I have revised my opinion. This is probably a bit too heavy for me," says the Brit with the fast legs in the newspapers.

source: sporza; 27/09/2010
 
YEs, that is what Sporza has. But hs anyone seen the comments in the British press?

Susan

Edit: This relates to a discussion we had in another thread. As a journalist I look for the original source. If Sporza said, "Cavendish told Sporza Xxx", I would accept that. If Sporza reported "Cavendish told The Daily Fishwrapper xxx," I could go look up the Daily Fishwrapper website. But "the newspapers"?
 
May 20, 2010
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Cav small chance

Cav is little more than a mathematical possibility.

Of the "sprinters" Friere, Goss.

My pick: Gilbert with Evans, Cancellara and Pozzato not to be ignored.

Sagan dark horse.

My wish Gilbert, Evans dead heat with Sagan 3rd :)
 
Apr 12, 2010
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Susan Westemeyer said:
Sporza says these quotes have appeared in the British press -- has anyone actually seen them?

Susan
http://news.smh.com.au/breaking-news-sport/cavendish-could-struggle-for-support-20100923-15owg.html

Cavendish looked at the 800m finishing straight on Wednesday and said it was not as tough as reported.

"It's not really an uphill finish, it is a flat finish in terms of professional cycling," he said.

But the chicane immediately after the Queen's Park bridge on the Geelong circuit is another matter.

"Without the little chicane, the climbs would be nothing," Cavendish said.

"You have got the first climb, it's hard, but you have got the recovery.

"But then with the chicane over the bridge, that changed the whole race, really changed the whole race, because you are a little bit still on the edge from the first climb and instead of being able to run up you've go to stop and then start the second climb.

"That's going to make the race, I think that bridge."


http://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/cycling/cavendish-confident-on-fast-course-to-defeat-evans/story-fn3owcsl-1225928464359

The Isle Of Man sprinter says he can figure in world title medal calculations only if there is a reasonably big group together at the end of the 262.7km.

"It's a tough circuit, a hard circuit," he said.

"But there's enough recovery not to be on your knees. I don't regard myself as one of the main contenders unless there's the possibility of a bunch sprint."



I think both Sporza and Velonation are taking quotes out of context as here are two articles from last Wednesday putting a slightly different slant on things,
 

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