Cavendish: Worlds course is not that hard

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maltiv said:
It's quite funny, Steffen Kjærgaard didn't even look at the route before he chose Kristoff. Now, when he has arrived in Australia, he says he's "surprised that the course is so hard". I guess it's too much to ask for that he would look at the route before making the selection...
Ya, in my opinion Steffen Kjærgaard is incompetent in his job and should be replaced as soon as possible. The fact that he messaged Kurt Asle Arvesen during the sunday stage of ENECO Tour and asked him if he was back home in Norway already when the race didn't even end until tuesday was so insanely stupid that I don't even know what to say.
 
Nick C. said:
What would you expect Cav to say "Oh I think I'll get dropped every lap." If he was smart he might keep his mouth shut and if the other nations were smart they would make damn sure Cav gets dropped b/c if he comes to the finale who can beat him, Farrar maybe, Freire maybe that might be it.
Bang on - Cav wants a sprint, Spain and USA probably want it a bit selective for Freire and Farrar, Italy want it more selective still for Pozatto.

Everyone is going to say it suits them.

Without seeing the course I wouldn't be surprised if its not as selective as we expect - the sheer length of the race means its not likely that the bombs will go off big time until relatively late and we've been promised superhard courses in the past that simply haven't been.

That said, Italy and Spain particularly have the ammo and the knowhow to shape the race the way they want so I'd be surprised if Cavendish isn't eliminated in the last 10-20km.
 
Mar 31, 2010
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maltiv said:
It's quite funny, Steffen Kjærgaard didn't even look at the route before he chose Kristoff. Now, when he has arrived in Australia, he says he's "surprised that the course is so hard". I guess it's too much to ask for that he would look at the route before making the selection...
lol, what a f'n amateur
 
Jan 11, 2010
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Ryo Hazuki said:
lol, what a f'n amateur
Sounds like Leo van Vliet. The Dutch team is also finding out that actually, this course is quite hard. Van Emden even wonders why Gesink doesn't ride (although you can't blame Van Vliet for lack of trying to convince him).
 
cavendish in a st kilda jumper? hehehe! what baffoon! as if dopey afl fans would have a clue who he is, let alone think "hey, lets support that pommy bar$tard coz he wore a saints jumper, and ignore our own... oi oi oi"...
(ignoring that the race is in geelong...)
 
theyoungest said:
Sounds like Leo van Vliet. The Dutch team is also finding out that actually, this course is quite hard. Van Emden even wonders why Gesink doesn't ride (although you can't blame Van Vliet for lack of trying to convince him).
Indeed, Van Emden reports they even have to change some things on the TT bike to make it more suitable for the climbs (same climbs as road race)
 
Feb 25, 2010
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simoni said:
Bang on - Cav wants a sprint, Spain and USA probably want it a bit selective for Freire and Farrar, Italy want it more selective still for Pozatto.

Everyone is going to say it suits them.

Without seeing the course I wouldn't be surprised if its not as selective as we expect - the sheer length of the race means its not likely that the bombs will go off big time until relatively late and we've been promised superhard courses in the past that simply haven't been.

That said, Italy and Spain particularly have the ammo and the knowhow to shape the race the way they want so I'd be surprised if Cavendish isn't eliminated in the last 10-20km
And even more selective for Gilbert; Belgium will have a hard job :( but a very very strong team imo (even though I'm pretty biased :D)
 
Feb 25, 2010
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Sophistic said:
1.3km@8,2% - 2.5km descent - 500m@10% - 5km flat to finish
No way that Cavendish is gonna win this
according to Michel Wuyts and Jose De Cauwer it's almost the same as the nieuwe Kruisberg in Ronse. If so there's no way he's going to be dropped
 
Benotti69 said:
how many HTC riders riding the worlds? and then ask whether Cav has a team of more than 2. they'll prefer to ride next year on a team with the world champ than not;)

most Italians and Spanish ride for home based teams.
Velits x 2, Eisel, Rogers, Goss, Albasini, Grabsch, Martin, Greipel ( :rolleyes: ), Sieberg, Roulston, Bak, Lewis, TJVG.

Germany/USA will be helping Cavendish indirectly, but they will be fairly well occupied with their own sprinters. Eisel will probably be working for himself, Albasini for Cancellara, Aussies for the team.

Do the Velits get along well with Sagan?
 
Jul 24, 2010
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Haha, what a joke. Cav is chanceless. The guy only got 2 teammates to bring him back up front after every single climb (or atleast most of the climbs), which means they won't be around anymore when Gilbert and co are just starting to get serious. The outcome is easy to fill in...
 
Jul 30, 2009
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Luis Ocaña said:
Haha, what a joke. Cav is chanceless. The guy only got 2 teammates to bring him back up front after every single climb (or atleast most of the climbs), which means they won't be around anymore when Gilbert and co are just starting to get serious. The outcome is easy to fill in...
My head says you may be right, but my heart reckons the lad can do it.
 
Jul 30, 2009
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Now I've watched Robbie McEwan's youtube guide to the course I've got to admit that it's steeper than I thought, but I still wonder how selective it will be?

I guess there will be gaps when the puncheurs start attacking on the last few laps. But the run-in after the second chase with its big wide roads and long straights will make it difficult for attackers to keep clear if there is still a bunch that can organise itself and has some megadomestiques and rouleurs in it (eg riders like Millar)

I think the big problem for Cav is the small size of the GB team. On the other hand, HTC are extremely well represented, and if Uncle Bob gets his chequebook out who knows what is going to happen?

Overall, I fancy Gilbert, then Nibali, then Cancellara* - and Bernard Eisel as a dark horse, if he can find a useful alliance.

Credit to the course designers - it is easy to see many possible outcomes.
 
Apr 12, 2010
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auscyclefan94 said:
In this recent interview with Mark Cavendish, Mark has said that the course is not overly hard as their is plenty of time to recover. He also said "the climbs are nothing without the chicane".

Is Mark dreaming or is this course not that hard? Can the manx missile don the rainbow jersey at the end of October the 3rd?
The original interview gives a slightly different opinion of the course to the above.

Cavendish looked at the 800m finishing straight on Wednesday and said it was not as tough as reported.

"It's not really an uphill finish, it is a flat finish in terms of professional cycling," he said.

But the chicane immediately after the Queen's Park bridge on the Geelong circuit is another matter.

"Without the little chicane, the climbs would be nothing," Cavendish said.

"You have got the first climb, it's hard, but you have got the recovery.

"But then with the chicane over the bridge, that changed the whole race, really changed the whole race, because you are a little bit still on the edge from the first climb and instead of being able to run up you've go to stop and then start the second climb.

"That's going to make the race, I think that bridge."


Also a more humble & realistic interview from Cav

http://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/cycling/cavendish-confident-on-fast-course-to-defeat-evans/story-fn3owcsl-1225928464359
 
Jul 30, 2009
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Boardslide - that interview does seem pretty objective.

for sure, if Millar and Hunt can keep him up there for 10 laps, assuming he gets some help from HTC friends, and he is on Gilbert's wheel at 500m - then he's got a chance. That's a lot of ifs - but he clearly knows that.

If he said 'I have no chance' - then what would he expect Hunt and Millar to do - ride for Thor and Farrar I guess.
 
Oct 16, 2009
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maltiv said:
It's quite funny, Steffen Kjærgaard didn't even look at the route before he chose Kristoff. Now, when he has arrived in Australia, he says he's "surprised that the course is so hard". I guess it's too much to ask for that he would look at the route before making the selection...
Kjærgaard's a former Postie. He's had other things on his mind.
 
Jul 27, 2009
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rata de sentina said:
It is not at all surprising to me that acf94 is a collingwood supporter. How the fanbase of one football team can be the products of a bizarre genetic experiment in the deleterious effects of inbreeding is one of the worlds great mysteries.
Ditto. I haven't been on here much lately and I must admit I LMFAO when I saw the Collingwood logo. It all makes sense now lol.
 
Jul 16, 2010
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Boardslide said:
The original interview gives a slightly different opinion of the course to the above.

Cavendish looked at the 800m finishing straight on Wednesday and said it was not as tough as reported.

"It's not really an uphill finish, it is a flat finish in terms of professional cycling," he said.

But the chicane immediately after the Queen's Park bridge on the Geelong circuit is another matter.

"Without the little chicane, the climbs would be nothing," Cavendish said.

"You have got the first climb, it's hard, but you have got the recovery.

"But then with the chicane over the bridge, that changed the whole race, really changed the whole race, because you are a little bit still on the edge from the first climb and instead of being able to run up you've go to stop and then start the second climb.

"That's going to make the race, I think that bridge."


Also a more humble & realistic interview from Cav

http://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/cycling/cavendish-confident-on-fast-course-to-defeat-evans/story-fn3owcsl-1225928464359
Philippe Gilbert said exactly the same about that one climb. Also that it suits him that you can't start the climb with a lot of speed which is true.
 
Jun 16, 2009
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El Pistolero said:
Philippe Gilbert said exactly the same about that one climb. Also that it suits him that you can't start the climb with a lot of speed which is true.
He said the chicane makes it "especially tough". he also said that first climb was like the climb in the belgian championships which was a tough race in itself.
 

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Jun 16, 2009
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Mar 12, 2009
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Is Cavendish aware of the number of teammates he's having? he's either dreaming big or fooling himself....
If everybody is in agreement on how hard the course is turned out-even for team leaders with the most men to dispose as the race progresses, & adding how the three most powerful teams are eager not to have a sprint finish at all....then WTF is Cavendish talking about?
 
Sep 9, 2010
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Sneekes said:
Do you reckon Farrar can hang in there? I've been impressed with his results in race with tough hills in them this year (Flanders, Plouay, Vuelta stage into Toledo)

Gawld I hope so.

1.) He's our hometown kid

2.) He's a genuinely humble/nice person with good manners unlike that other sprinter, you know the one...that misshapen little man.
 
Jul 5, 2010
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hfer07 said:
Is Cavendish aware of the number of teammates he's having? he's either dreaming big or fooling himself....
He only needs 2 really. One to keep him out of the wind, one to deliver him in the last km. For the rest he will have to depend on other teams doing the work for him. And yes, some teams will. Even the strongest teams. Basically every big nation wants things to be together entering the final lap and then we will see Gilbert and the like attacking. If for some reason the group that forms won't cooperate and a strong nation who missed out brings everyone back....
Not saying it will happen, but it sure is possible.
 
Looking at the video with McEwen again, and McEwen is right, the climbs do remind of the Amstel Gold Race. Short and very steep.

Perfect for Gilbert. Cavendish is good, but San Remo's Poggio is an easy thing which barely goes over 5%. It's longer but more or less false flat (I've ridden it as well). Not comparable to these type of climbs.
Then agan, as U23 rider. Cavendish was just outside the top 10 in Salzubrg I think, when Ciolek won in a lead group that contained guys like Vanendert, Gavazzi and Gesink...

1 Gerald Ciolek (Germany) 4.00.50 (44.146 km/h)
2 Romain Feillu (France)
3 Alexander Khatuntsev (Russian Federation)
4 Francesco Gavazzi (Italy)
5 Jelle Vanendert (Belgium)
6 Robert Gesink (Netherlands)
7 Jos Van Emden (Netherlands) 0.04
8 Sergey Kolesnikov (Russian Federation) 0.05
9 Edvald Boasson Hagen (Norway)
10 Danilo Wyss (Switzerland)
11 Mark Cavendish (Great Britain)

And this was on a supposedly though course. So... Cavendish is definately not 'without a chance' either.
But with the main favorites being guys like Gilbert and Pozzato, it's not gonna be easy. He'll probably get 'stuck' in a second group again like in Salzburg 2006.
 

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