Teams & Riders Chris Froome Discussion Thread.

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Re:

Wurfel said:
Who will be the last man before froome in the TDF? Seems like an interesting question.... With poels, thomas, ... They have very nice riders to set the pace until there are maybe 20 or 30 riders left. Possibly the second skyman can get a good placing that way in the GC.
It looks like henao had the best preparation to be at his best for the tour, but porte, without pressure, could show some nice things too. Or will they just pull the peloton and then stop bothering a nice place in the GC?
CF has got to get over the cobbles first.
Probably the better question is which of poels, thomas, porte, henao could be a useful Plan B, just in case.
You know, learning from experience, kinda thing, :rolleyes:
 
Re: Re:

offtherecord said:
djpbaltimore said:
We are not talking about racing the tour once a year for the next 100 years with the same riders, we are talking about simulating the 2015 Tour 100 times with current form to weed out the 'lucky breaks' like crashes and such. There is a big difference between the two. Analytics/ Metrics are increasingly important in US team sports, I don't see why this type of analysis should be off limits for cycling, especially when talking about 'luck'.
It´s about how you use the method. You can´t say ´let´s try a frequency to weed out just /for me/ unfavourable variable (in this case crash, heat/rain, an important domestique catching a bug).´ All of these have some frequency/occurrence and how often they effect the outcome.
So saying the chance is based only on wattage is to ignore that people with good racing heads have been winning against strong riders again and again.
This is obvious. I agree.
 
Re: Re:

TourOfSardinia said:
Wurfel said:
Who will be the last man before froome in the TDF? Seems like an interesting question.... With poels, thomas, ... They have very nice riders to set the pace until there are maybe 20 or 30 riders left. Possibly the second skyman can get a good placing that way in the GC.
It looks like henao had the best preparation to be at his best for the tour, but porte, without pressure, could show some nice things too. Or will they just pull the peloton and then stop bothering a nice place in the GC?
CF has got to get over the cobbles first.
Probably the better question is which of poels, thomas, porte, henao could be a useful Plan B, just in case.
You know, learning from experience, kinda thing, :rolleyes:
Yeah the cobbles are the problem stage from Froome, although he will have a good team around him. The same problems can be said of Contador (struggled badly last year) and Quintana though, they both could lose time on that stage even though on paper it doesn't look as bad as last year.
 
Feb 13, 2011
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Re: Re:

TourOfSardinia said:
Wurfel said:
Who will be the last man before froome in the TDF? Seems like an interesting question.... With poels, thomas, ... They have very nice riders to set the pace until there are maybe 20 or 30 riders left. Possibly the second skyman can get a good placing that way in the GC.
It looks like henao had the best preparation to be at his best for the tour, but porte, without pressure, could show some nice things too. Or will they just pull the peloton and then stop bothering a nice place in the GC?
CF has got to get over the cobbles first.
Probably the better question is which of poels, thomas, porte, henao could be a useful Plan B, just in case.
You know, learning from experience, kinda thing, :rolleyes:
I think the cobbles won't be a major problem this year. If they set a stable pace with thomas they should be okay. I'm just guessing about the b-plan. When henao was very good at pais vasco he immediately took it a little bit easy(?, just guessing otherwise he should have been closer to the victory in calif.)and recognized some stages of the tour, nieve was set to the vuelta team and now he is in a decent, but growing condition to the tour. Porte is more of a questionmark to me. Will he target a nice place overall or will he just give everything for froome and then sit back and lose a lot of time? Or is it just unimportant and will both riders have only one purpose? The victory with froome? Imo thomas will always be "used" before Porte and Henao.
 
I really don't think Henao will go to the Tour, will only go if Porte doesn't make it.

Froome, Porte, Poels, Thomas, Kennaugh, Roche, Kiryienka, Rowe, Stannard.

There is no way they go to the Tour with only 2 rouleurs so Kiryienka over Henao.
 
Re: Re:

Wurfel said:
TourOfSardinia said:
Wurfel said:
Who will be the last man before froome in the TDF? Seems like an interesting question.... With poels, thomas, ... They have very nice riders to set the pace until there are maybe 20 or 30 riders left. Possibly the second skyman can get a good placing that way in the GC.
It looks like henao had the best preparation to be at his best for the tour, but porte, without pressure, could show some nice things too. Or will they just pull the peloton and then stop bothering a nice place in the GC?
CF has got to get over the cobbles first.
Probably the better question is which of poels, thomas, porte, henao could be a useful Plan B, just in case.
You know, learning from experience, kinda thing, :rolleyes:
I think the cobbles won't be a major problem this year. If they set a stable pace with thomas they should be okay. I'm just guessing about the b-plan. When henao was very good at pais vasco he immediately took it a little bit easy(?, just guessing otherwise he should have been closer to the victory in calif.)and recognized some stages of the tour, nieve was set to the vuelta team and now he is in a decent, but growing condition to the tour. Porte is more of a questionmark to me. Will he target a nice place overall or will he just give everything for froome and then sit back and lose a lot of time? Or is it just unimportant and will both riders have only one purpose? The victory with froome? Imo thomas will always be "used" before Porte and Henao.
Has he ever even ridden on the Cobbles in the Tour? not in 2014 for sure.............never got to them
 
Re:

b.broadhurst said:
I really don't think Henao will go to the Tour, will only go if Porte doesn't make it.

Froome, Porte, Poels, Thomas, Kennaugh, Roche, Kiryienka, Rowe, Stannard.

There is no way they go to the Tour with only 2 rouleurs so Kiryienka over Henao.
Wich of those riders is not a really good rouleur, including Henao?
 
Nov 23, 2013
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I like how everyone equates 1 cobbled stage a year ago at the TDF to how each rider is always going to be on cobbles. Come on people. We have no idea how the GC'ers will take the cobbles this year base on last years one stage.
 
Re:

Energy Starr said:
I like how everyone equates 1 cobbled stage a year ago at the TDF to how each rider is always going to be on cobbles. Come on people. We have no idea how the GC'ers will take the cobbles this year base on last years one stage.
True. One, it doesn't show us where Froome is because he didn't even get to the cobbles. Two, it doesn't really show us were AC is because he had a mechanical. It does, however, show us were Nibali will be. He will be very good. (barring any accidents/mechanicals) Whether or not AC and Froome can stay with him is an unknown. My guess is Nibbes will have a hard time riding away from them if they are marking him on that stage, which, I think they will be doing. They now know that he can do very good here. He won't be given much leeway.
 
Regarding the cobbled stage. I think it's more dangerous then last year. They shouldve used more sectors earlier in the stage, but I guess that's difficult with the starting town.

It will be very crowded during the few sectors that are in which makes crashes more likely.
 
Aug 31, 2012
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Interesting assessment of the competition from the savy Tasmanian:

"[The biggest rival will be] Vincenzo [Nibali]. He has proven to be very good on the cobbles, he's smart and unpredictable, so he is the one we have to keep an eye on. Quintana? He is back from Colombia. We will see how he goes."
 
Jul 29, 2012
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Porte is right. Nibali is the most dangerous one, his team will probably be extremely good too and he can handle pretty much everything. His only possible weakness is a long flat ITT and that's not in this tour. Some say nibali is bad on very steep hard long, multiple climbs, the tour doesn't have that either.

That nibali from last year was no joke, that was the real deal. Still sad that we've never seen the battle between contador and nibali last year, would have been amazing.
 
Re:

Miburo said:
Porte is right. Nibali is the most dangerous one, his team will probably be extremely good too and he can handle pretty much everything. His only possible weakness is a long flat ITT and that's not in this tour. Some say nibali is bad on very steep hard long, multiple climbs, the tour doesn't have that either.

That nibali from last year was no joke, that was the real deal. Still sad that we've never seen the battle between contador and nibali last year, would have been amazing.
I think Nibali is so dangerous becuase he exploits Sky's weaknesses so well. See this year's Dauphine, 2013 Tirenno for examples of Nibali giving Sky and Froome a tactical masterclass. I think that the best GC rider should not be the one who climbs the best or time trials the best but the one who is strong in both and is the smartest.
 
Re: Re:

Dazed and Confused said:
SeriousSam said:
Interesting assessment of the competition from the savy Tasmanian:

"[The biggest rival will be] Vincenzo [Nibali]. He has proven to be very good on the cobbles, he's smart and unpredictable, so he is the one we have to keep an eye on. Quintana? He is back from Colombia. We will see how he goes."
yea, when Porte speaks its time to listen up.

What the hell has happend to his face in the last years??
 
Aug 4, 2011
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Re: Re:

markene2 said:
Dazed and Confused said:
SeriousSam said:
Interesting assessment of the competition from the savy Tasmanian:

"[The biggest rival will be] Vincenzo [Nibali]. He has proven to be very good on the cobbles, he's smart and unpredictable, so he is the one we have to keep an eye on. Quintana? He is back from Colombia. We will see how he goes."
yea, when Porte speaks its time to listen up.

What the hell has happend to his face in the last years??
Botox man,,,,,or it could be that he looks like that when making his helmet levitate...
 
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