So, I'm thinking about Froome going for the double next year, and about which riders he will face in which race. The most accomplished current GT riders would be Quintana, Dumoulin, and Nibali. All three of them made a serious attempt at the Giro last year, and are likely to focus on the Tour this year. Froome is the odds-on favorite in any GT he chooses to target, so these three have an additional disincentive to ride the Giro now, and the perfect reason not to as well, having made it a target in 2017. Aru is going to ride the Giro, and presumably one of Valverde/Landa, but does it seem to anyone else that the Giro could have a very weak field to take on Froome? Zakarin and Majka have already committed to the Tour as well, I can't imagine Porte or Bardet are going to target the Giro over the Tour for their own reasons, Meintjes will ride the Giro if I had to guess, but he does not have a history that will cause anyone to be concerned. The Yates and Chaves possibility is there, but that's not much more of a threat than Meintjes, I would argue. Maybe Lopez will ride for Astana? If he develops, I guess he could be a threat. But overall, looking at who Froome is likely to face, I think there is a reasonable argument to be made that if ever there were a Giro to come in undercooked for, this is it.
And if Froome does win the Giro, and I really feel that if he decides he wants to, then he will, I think he is going to be the favorite for the Tour also. Partly because he is the strongest rider and has the strongest team, but also because there are going to be so many riders targeting the Tour that they will be unable to avoid racing against each other rather than racing to win the Tour. Froome has already demonstrated he has no such difficulties. I think we are about to witness a period of sustained dominance unlike anything seen since Hinault.