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Cobbled Classics Discussion Thread

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Which team will have the Paris Roubaix winner for 2011?

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ultimobici said:
When you compare Ballan to Hoste you have to expect to be picked up on it. Comparing their records in the Classics is a little one-sided, IMO. Host has no wins at all in the cobbled classics to Ballan's Ronde. That's before you take into account the 2008 Worlds. When you bear in mind Leif Hoste has been a professional twice as long as Ballan yet has a palmares less than half of Ballan's it puts his worth into perspective.

The comparison is fine.

Had the finish line been just two metres earlier we'd be talking about Hoste having one RvV to Ballan's none right now. Add to that two additional second places and a top ten in Roubaix just last year, where Ballan was missing. He did finish second in Roubaix once too (train incident).
 
Aug 18, 2009
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I shouldn't dismiss Cancellara. I think I might just be assuming he won't be going for these races this year, I'm not sure. I'm dismissing Pozzato as well. He was sick last year, and with a stronger team, he'll be in there for sure.

Is the vote for Sky out of loyalty, or do you think they have a genuine shout?
 
maltiv said:
Surprisingly few believe that Cancellera can win again. I guess it is partly because people expect his new Trek to literally fall apart from the extreme pressure when he tries to launch a devastating attack :p

RVV is a lot more open, as it could end in a lot of different ways. It could even end in a 20- 30 man bunch sprint, which would be boring, but as a Norwegian this is the outcome I hope for.

Hmm, has Thor ever won a bunch sprint for a placing in Flanders?

I think maybe they will give RvV to Haussler and then swap roles the week after.
 
Mar 17, 2009
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Descender said:
The comparison is fine.

Had the finish line been just two metres earlier we'd be talking about Hoste having one RvV to Ballan's none right now. Add to that two additional second places and a top ten in Roubaix just last year, where Ballan was missing. He did finish second in Roubaix once too (train incident).
By that measure Hausler could beat Cav! The line is where the line is, first over it is the winner.

Hoste's Ronde record is excellent, but while Ballan's is shorter it has the added cachet of a win. Hoste's best position in Roubaix is not 2nd, it's 6th as he was disqualified in 2006. Ballan has 2 thirds in Roubaix.

On this basis, while favourite is a little too optimistic, he is an interesting outside odds bet. His pedigree is not in question, rather it is whether he has fully recovered from the setbacks of the last two years.
 
Ferminal said:
Hmm, has Thor ever won a bunch sprint for a placing in Flanders?

I think maybe they will give RvV to Haussler and then swap roles the week after.
He probably would've won the sprint for third in 2009 if he weren't smashed into the barriers. He's improved every year in races like this though if he's there for the sprint I think only Boonen can stop him from winning, but chances are that Boonen already has wasted much energy on attacking/following every move at this point. Same with Haussler, who I actually consider as faster than Hushovd but he seems to ride a lot more aggressively which might prove unwise.

EBH could also do something, but it's not very likely that he'll be there at the end.
 
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Ferminal said:
Hmm, has Thor ever won a bunch sprint for a placing in Flanders?

I think maybe they will give RvV to Haussler and then swap roles the week after.

IMO Garmin-Cervelo might be better keeping Haussler for the sprint in Roubaix, if Boonen's around. Such things are easy to say, though. No guarantees in that race: that's the whole point I suppose.
 
A

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I realize if is a big word....

If Haussler show's form in Qatar or Oman he will be in the finale of both RvV and Roubaix. I think he will surprise both Canc and Tomeke and take one.
 
ultimobici said:
By that measure Hausler could beat Cav! The line is where the line is, first over it is the winner.

Hoste's Ronde record is excellent, but while Ballan's is shorter it has the added cachet of a win. Hoste's best position in Roubaix is not 2nd, it's 6th as he was disqualified in 2006. Ballan has 2 thirds in Roubaix.

On this basis, while favourite is a little too optimistic, he is an interesting outside odds bet. His pedigree is not in question, rather it is whether he has fully recovered from the setbacks of the last two years.

He could, of course he could. He nearly did.

I'm not diminishing Ballan's palmarès and chances, I'm just saying all things considered he shouldn't be considered a bigger favourite than Hoste at this point.
 
Jan 18, 2010
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Ballan seemed in reasonable form at TDU for what thats worth, he got involved in some sprints i seem to recall but he has no chance at P-R.

If Canc rides he should win but if not it has to be Boonen. Hammond will go well again as usual and is a darkhorse for the race depending on Garmin tactics. Its hard to say with Haussler, i find it unlikely at the moment but maybe a top 10 position.

You heard it here first!
 
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All I really want is to see some great racing. And mud. I'm picking Boonen for PR albeit I'm thinking he'll probably get burned out following every serious attack. Party boy needs a break. I'd love to see Gilbert take RvV.
 
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pedaling squares said:
All I really want is to see some great racing. And mud. I'm picking Boonen for PR albeit I'm thinking he'll probably get burned out following every serious attack. Party boy needs a break. I'd love to see Gilbert take RvV.

Boonen has been training hard, haven't heard any news of him partying anymore since after he got back in the pro peloton. And trust me, Belgian media would've published it if he's still acting like a party boy.

Oh well, must suck to be not a Belgian right now. Cyclocross makes the wait so much smaller for the real road cycling season to begin(with MSR/P-N) :p
 
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No idea if they will even be starters but looking at the young riders, I think Michael Matthews will be in the mix for Flanders (2nd in the past 2 U23 events) and Taylor Phinney would have to be watched in Paris Roubaix (winner of 2 U23 Paris Roubaix).
 
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In Flanders I just can't see Hushovd, Ferrar, Haussler or even Gilbert hanging on to Boonen and Cancellara unfortunately. I'm predicting a race similar to last year: With something like 50 km to go, Fabian and Thom attack and drop everyone in the race. They work together for a bit, until Cancellara attacks and drops Boonen and soloes to victory. Behind them the Garmins will fight over the final podium spot with Leukemans, Gilbert and Pozzato.

Roubaix could be different though. If the Garmin team works together they could make it impossible for even Cancellara to stay away against Hushovd, Haussler, Ferrar and Hammond chasing together (and I'm probably even forgetting some of their riders here). In other words, Garmin will make it end in a small group sprint, with Hushovd winning it from Boonen.
 
Dundee said:
No idea if they will even be starters but looking at the young riders, I think Michael Matthews will be in the mix for Flanders (2nd in the past 2 U23 events) and Taylor Phinney would have to be watched in Paris Roubaix (winner of 2 U23 Paris Roubaix).
That is very unlikely. Most riders can't manage the 250 km + races before they are 25 at least.
 
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taiwan said:
Vacansoleil has to be the next team on the list. Leukemans was one of the strongest riders in both races last year, and then they signed Devolder. Could see Leukemans on one podium or other, but there's a fairly long list who could do that.
I knew I missed one important team. I guess it is sometimes hard to put them all in. Aplogies to the vacansoleil fans.
maltiv said:
That is very unlikely. Most riders can't manage the 250 km + races before they are 25 at least.

He said that he would be dissapointed if he didn't top 20 at roubaix this year.
 
Hard to see beyond boonen and cancellara for paris-roubaix, but I hope someone else wins it this year. By the way, does anyone remember what happenened to cancellara in 2009? As far as i remember, he was not in the first group, with hushovd, flecha, pozzato, hoste, etc, when everybody started crashing and boonen got away. Did he have some sort of accident?
 
zapata said:
By the way, does anyone remember what happenened to cancellara in 2009? As far as i remember, he was not in the first group, with hushovd, flecha, pozzato, hoste, etc, when everybody started crashing and boonen got away. Did he have some sort of accident?

If I remember right, Cancellara had some injury or illness early in the year and wasn't fit heading into the big cobbled classics. He DNF'd at RVV that year.
 

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