- Apr 30, 2011
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hence i do not think a power curve captures capacity
rogla has a great bazooka, lipowitz less so
ben o connor is an almost comical example and why the 2024 vuelta shows the limits of a too simple model
rogla has a great bazooka, lipowitz less so
ben o connor is an almost comical example and why the 2024 vuelta shows the limits of a too simple model
- Sep 12, 2022
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These are the 2 best performances I have from Portugal:
Raúl Alarcón | 78 (-4): 6.67 W/kg for 20:55 on Senhora de Graca (Portugal 2017)
José Neves | 75 (-12): 6.86 W/kg for 19:42 on Senhora de Graca Merendaz ITT (2021)
This level would certainly have been very competitive in the World Tour in the 2010s, but not to the extent that the Portuguese riders would have dominated.
I have thought about it, but in the end I decided to just post some of my work on this forum for now.
It's curious how low the performances in Lussari were—well, in a manner of speaking, almost 6.4 w/kg for nearly half an hour after the two previous mountain marathons isn't that bad, but still... The thing is, Zeeman said it was one of Roglic's best days of his career (and it was understood he meant physically). I wonder if the rough asphalt you mentioned has a much bigger impact on the estimates than we imagine.
- Nov 16, 2013
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What was the negative adjustment points for Thomas given the lunch break/picnic/helmet change he took at the bottom?
It is very possible that I underestimated the effort, but I really doubt it was one of Roglic's best. he only gained 37 seconds on Thomas on a very steep 30 minute climb. Thomas never even once in his career did amazing raw watts.
The rough surface and a lot of rain ditches crossing the road where you have to pedal a bit carefully may make pushing power harder. And someone metioned before that it is physiologically more dificult to push power on very steep gradients. It was also one of the (rare) recent GTs where riders were really affected by fatigue, probably due to bad whether and crashes.
*Performances also were not that bad. In the 2023 Tour ITT, they were much worse (except for Vingegaard).
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Well with chain drop (was 19 or 21 seconds lost I think) it was more close to 55-1 min difference to Thomas and Almeida. And I was refering to all the estimations of that day and not only yours, but despite Zeeman claim t it´s quite posible that your last sentence is just the true and due to the cirscunstances it was more a mountain ITT of surviving than a day of pushing the big watts like other Roglic perfomances in that regard (Romandie 2018, Peraygues, ¿San Luca 2019?...)
- Sep 12, 2022
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Cool, if you ever change your mind, just vibecode a quick version. You can always take it more seriously later
The chain drop should not have cost that much, he also got a great push afterwards.
He pushed big watts in Romandie and Peyragudes, not on San Luca. One thing I noticed after analyzing my data is that it is basically impossible to push good watts on a very short climb in a mixed TT. This seems to be a pacing issue, as you need to push hard already before the climb.
Riders could probably push higher watts after a 350k road stage on San Luca than in a 8k TT (unless they do an extreme negative split). This again shows that the approach is often more important than total kilojoules (especially for shorter climbs).
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- Feb 20, 2012
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Fully agree. Which is why the PdbF performance by Pogacar is still crazy even if I realistically think Roglic underperformed significantly.
I do think Monte Lussari was pretty good, but it's more due to a climb that suiting Roglic so perfectly rather than him being in great shape altogether.
Pretty sure only Monte Bondone was good in that Giro and that's one of these very long very low altitude climbs in a place in Italy where Giro numbers always seem to go high.
@Peyresourde If it's not too much to ask, do you have the data and index of the main climbs of the Vuelta19? I've analyzed it multiple times with other "watt estimators" and w2w, but since your estimates seem more complete, I'm curious. I know you mentioned Javalambre positively, but there were other climbs, such as Acebo, that were very noteworthy at that time.
The level that Vuelta was very solid for the time, but also not completely out of the world. Several GTs of the time like the 2016 Tour, 2017 Giro, 2018 Vuelta had (almost) the same level. Overall, the 2019 Vuelta had many stages with performances in the mid 70s or higher, which was very good for the time (better than the Tour that year). This may also have been Valverde's best overall GT.
You already mentioned Javalambre: Lopez 85, Roglic+Valverde 82
Then we have Acebo with the best raw watts (Roglic same as Valverde):
Alejandro Valverde | 81 (-3): 6.58 W/kg for 26:10 on Acebo (Vuelta 2019)
The Andorra stage where Pogacar got his first win was probabably a very high level performance, but hard to adjust for (they were basically climbing for 40 minutes already with 1 small descent and a gravel section + hail before the last climb).
Machucos was a 76 for Pogacar + Roglic, but could also be higher (irregular).
Then there was Pena Negra, where Pogacar started a 30+ k solo:
Tadej Pogacar | 74 (+5): 5.99 W/kg for 35:20 on Pena Negra (Vuelta 2019)
Over the top of this climb the headwind was probably 50kph!, so the exact watts are also difficult to determine (the bottom of the climb was not paced that hard though). It was very impressive as Pogacar did not even loose more than a few seconds on the last climb to Plataforma de Gredos after being solo for a long time.
That’s interesting and really confirms your data about Froome/Late Contador/Quintana era not being of a historic high level.
I don't calculate average scores over just 1 year (this would not make much sense most of the time). But I would still say no. Kuss had his PB on the Angliru last Vuelta and was also very strong on Bola del Mundo. In the Tour he was not good, but also not that bad (Ventoux, Madeleine).
Plapp currently seems to have 1 type of climb that he is good at: ~20 minute unipuerto/MTT (Romandie 24, Peyragudes TT, UAE Tour)
Ok, how about two years? Since 2024 season. I'd like to see a list of the top climbers / climb performances and see where Remco is, and where the line is that determines if you are a 'climber' or not.....
Alright, I have done the weighted average of the top 10 performances (same method as page 1) for 15 current riders since 2024 only:
| Pogacar | 1 | 104,9 |
| Vingegaard | 2 | 96,4 |
| Roglic | 3 | 86,3 |
| Almeida | 4 | 86,2 |
| Evenepoel | 5 | 86,2 |
| Adam Yates | 6 | 83,1 |
| Lipowitz | 7 | 82,4 |
| Gall | 8 | 82 |
| Landa | 9 | 81,3 |
| Ayuso | 10 | 80,9 |
| Carapaz | 11 | 80,9 |
| Del Toro | 12 | 80,2 |
| Onley | 13 | 79,7 |
| Jorgenson | 14 | 78,2 |
| Seixas | 15 | 74,7 |
This is list does not contain every rider, just the most relevant currently. If I have missed someone important, just remind me. Kuss does not have enough qualifying performances since 24.
As you can see, not much changes for the top 5, but this may give you an impression of other riders (keep in mind that some of those riders do not really have 10 performances at their current peak capacity yet, lowering their number)
Edit: I forgot about Pidcock (82.9). He is has a high score because of many good performances on short climbs (Malselv, Bir Jaydah, Pike etc.), but has also improved on longer climbs.
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- Sep 12, 2022
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Seems very fair, don’t see an issue with the order. So your method must be good
The gap between Pogacar and the rest not named Vingegaard is very big. We are probably talking about 0.25 w/kg difference in a long MTF?
You can calculate the differences in w/kg from my numbers. 1 point difference = 0.025 w/kg --> 10 points = 0.25 w/kg
So the gap from Pogacar to Roglic would be: 104.9 - 86.3 = 18.6 = 0.465 w/kg
As Pogacar has been perfroming more consistently than Roglic recently, the gap when they are both in peak form would probably a bit smaller, around 0.4 w/kg
Excellent! Thank you.
So there are really only 2 riders that are climbers, nobody else can climb since the difference between Remco, Roglic and Almedia is basically a margin of error.
Why am I not surprised
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