Comprehensive Climbers Ranking

[Krzysztof_O]

We have already speculated about Ventoux (and longer climbs in general) erlier in the thread. The w/kg differences also do not specifically refer to fresh efforts, where the gap between the two should be slightly smaller on average anyway. Possible reason for smaller differences on Ventoux:

-Roglic had his best day of the year, better than Peyragudes in my Index
-Pogacar did not go as fast as possible (irregular pacing) and probably had an average day
-Gaps on long climbs seem to be smaller in general (%-wise), especially on Ventoux where the first 10 minutes are always in a bunch. This already reduces the potential gaps at the end.
- Pogacar may be relatively worse on long climbs, while 20 minute efforts are his bread and butter

Edit: And if you just took the time from Vingegaard's attack, it would a 68 second gap on a ~23 minute effort.

I intentionally took those two performances by Roglic: due to his terrible preparation he was closest to his best on uni-puerto fresh efforts. He was like a 5-10 km running specialist: capable of superb single efforts ranging between anaerobic threshold and VO2max but missing a bit in ultra-marathon distances (flat uphill track bully by @Red Rick )

Relative differences are smaller on long climbs usually due to weak pacing in the first half. PdB 2024 was an incredible outlier. On Ventoux'25 about 35-40 minutes of the climb were paced by Vingo's teammates or by Vingo himself so the pacing was good by this climb's standards. Obviously we can't take 68 seconds in just a 23 minute effort as the pace had been good for some time before (and fatigue was cumulating).

All in all I think Pogacar was good but maybe not at his best and OTOH Roglic (and Lipo as well) was helped by the rest day after the Pyrenees (Peyreguades killed guys due to monster efforts on Hautacam stage).

 

[Red Rick]

Pogacar and Vingegaard in my opinion were both getting tired through the Tour more so than in the 2024 Tour. Perhaps it's due to different weather, or a crash in Pogacar's case, or due to the Dauphine also being in their schedule. It had a little bit of Giro 2023 vibes with maybe some sickness going through the peloton.

 

[Netserk]

i dont think vingegaard got worse

but unlike 24 , only the first two mountain stages were full full . if pogi had gotten a gap on la plagne with his first attack , i think that would have been a strong performance too

it got tactical to various degree since superbagneres

 

[Krzysztof_O]

i dont think vingegaard got worse

but unlike 24 , only the first two mountain stages were full full . if pogi had gotten a gap on la plagne with his first attack , i think that would have been a strong performance too

it got tactical to various degree since superbagneres

Vingegaard reached his best level in Peyreguades and Ventoux while in the Alps he was mediocre (but even more so was Pogacar, whose form clearly declined). I tend to think Pogacar was getting worse after the Pyrenees while Vingo was fluctuating (with disappointing beginning and very end as well).

My form perception (relative to one's capabilities)
Hautacam: Pogacar 10/10, Vingegaard 7/10
Peyreguades: both 10/10
Ventoux: Vingegaard 10/10, Pogacar 8.5/10 (the only stage where I think Vingo was a bit stronger than Pog)
Alps: Vingegaard 8/10, Pogacar 7/10

 

[Netserk]

Vingegaard reached his best level in Peyreguades and Ventoux while in the Alps he was mediocre (but even more so was Pogacar, whose form clearly declined). I tend to think Pogacar was getting worse after the Pyrenees while Vingo was fluctuating (with disappointing beginning and very end as well).

My form perception (relative to one's capabilities)
Hautacam: Pogacar 10/10, Vingegaard 7/10
Peyreguades: both 10/10
Ventoux: Vingegaard 10/10, Pogacar 8.5/10 (the only stage where I think Vingo was a bit stronger than Pog)
Alps: Vingegaard 8/10, Pogacar 7/10

la plagne didnt test his capacity , he only cared about the stage win

and the way the stage to loze was raced also makes it hard to infer what the riders could have done if it instead had been a standard shootout on a steep mtf

 

[Krzysztof_O]

la plagne didnt test his capacity , he only cared about the stage win

and the way the stage to loze was raced also makes it hard to infer what the riders could have done if it instead had been a standard shootout on a steep mtf

I mean on La Plagne stage Pog couldn't catch Arensman for many kilometers (despite being very close behind), come on. OTOH Vingo didn't even try to attack Pogacar's moderate pace until the very end. If Vingo sensed he could've done more he would've tried dropping Pogacar: even gaining 10-20 seconds would be some mental boost for the future. That's why I think both were in poor form on that stage.

 

[Netserk]

I mean on La Plagne stage Pog couldn't catch Arensman for many kilometers (despite being very close behind), come on. OTOH Vingo didn't even try to attack Pogacar's moderate pace until the very end. If Vingo sensed he could've done more he would've tried dropping Pogacar: even gaining 10-20 seconds would be some mental boost for the future. That's why I think both were in poor form on that stage.

with the gradient and headwind , neither could probably drop the other and for both of them a sprint was the best way to win the stage

i dont believe pogi tried his hardest to catch arensman ( only to serve the stage win to his rival ) , he wanted to lure vingegaard away from his wheel

 

[Krzysztof_O]

with the gradient and headwind , neither could probably drop the other and for both of them a sprint was the best way to win the stage

i dont believe pogi tried his hardest to catch arensman , he wanted to lure vingegaard away from his wheel

I think both wanted to win the stage and both failed. Pogacar because his pace wasn't enough to catch Arensman and Vingegaard because he didn't think he could win the stage without sticking to Pog's wheel all the time. To me the fact that Vingo didn't try to gap Pog is very telling (despite saving energy on Pogacar's not too hot wheel).

 

[Red Rick]

Madeleine all things considered was somewhat mid wasn't it? But I guess that's because you can't drop Jorgenson

 

[Netserk]

shates and kuss pace for 6'07" , after that it takes vingegaard 1'42" to get up to the wheel of jorgenson

couldnt pace from the bottom or too hard over a longer time before the attack to not catch jorgenson too soon
couldnt go faster than jorgensons pace afterwards to keep him with you

they had a modest uae pace from the bottom before van aert , benoot and campenaerts took over

in the 7'49" attack , they closed a gap of 1'15" to jorge . it was a fairly strong attack ( just watch lipo ) , but the botched execution didnt even allow for an all out effort to the top

 

[canina82]

This is more of a perception driven narrative than a data driven one, but my impression is that Pogacar already showed a clearly stronger climbing level in the 2023 Tour than in 2022. That was partly masked by his preparation, and by the fact that Vingegaard was also exceptionally strong in that race. Pogacar seemed to carry that higher level into early 2024, improve slightly perhaps, and then by the 2024 Tour several riders appeared to be climbing at record strong levels.

I also suspect that Roglic’s apparent lack of “fatigue resistance” may be explained, at least in part, by his positioning difficulties in the bunch. On longer, harder, and more complex stages, that can plausibly contribute to his relatively weaker performances. It may not be primarily a physical limitation. In that area, both Pogacar and Vingegaard are excellent. So while some, like Politt, say Vingegaard is nervous, I do not think that is the right reading. Just about always makes the right split and wheel.

Addition: I also see many riders make a noticeable improvement when they reach 25-26 y.o. This is true lower down the results sheet also. I feel it is perhaps an incorrect assumption that we should expect improvement to be linear and marginal. For me, people appear at a new level, stagnate or hold consistent for a few years, then make another noticable step. Most often, the "big leap" comes around mid twenties. Last few years it's been riders born in 97-98-99. Now I think it will be 99-00-01.

I really believe Pogacar would have won the 2023 TdF without his crash. He was significantly better compared to 2022.
If we exclude the TTT in PN, Pogacar won 12 races (10 classics/stages + 2 GC) in 17 races (before LBL). This is a win rate of 71%.

 

[Rou]

I really believe Pogacar would have won the 2023 TdF without his crash. He was significantly better compared to 2022.
If we exclude the TTT in PN, Pogacar won 12 races (10 classics/stages + 2 GC) in 17 races (before LBL). This is a win rate of 71%.

This is pure speculation. Pogacar in 2023 may have been slightly stronger than 2022 (maybe on pure watts on fresh efforts and unipuertos). His endurance on queen mountain stages was still inferior to Vingegaard.
He also lost Giro d'ell Emilia to Rogla and did a mediocre climb of Passo di Ganda in Lombardia.

 

[canina82]

This is pure speculation. Pogacar in 2023 may have been slightly stronger than 2022 (maybe on pure watts on fresh efforts and unipuertos). His endurance on queen mountain stages was still inferior to Vingegaard.
He also lost Giro d'ell Emilia to Rogla and did a mediocre climb of Passo di Ganda in Lombardia.

He rushed his comeback in order to compete in the TdF. He was completely dead after the Tour.
He almost cracked Vingegaard on Col de Joux Plane for example. A decisive moment of the 2023 TdF is when Vingegaard gains a lot of time in a climb that suits Pogacar (stage 5). This changed everything in the race. A well prepared Pogacar doesn't lose time there and Vingegaard would probably be the chaser and not the chased after the first week.

 

[Pozzovivo]

Are there any thoughtful articles or opinion pieces on the recent increase in climbing speeds that any of you are aware of? Would love to learn more about it.

 

[Red Rick]

Are there any thoughtful articles or opinion pieces on the recent increase in climbing speeds that any of you are aware of? Would love to learn more about it.

There's an elephant in the room and everyone is extremely busy writing about anything else.

 

[Red Rick]

shates and kuss pace for 6'07" , after that it takes vingegaard 1'42" to get up to the wheel of jorgenson

couldnt pace from the bottom or too hard over a longer time before the attack to not catch jorgenson too soon
couldnt go faster than jorgensons pace afterwards to keep him with you

they had a modest uae pace from the bottom before van aert , benoot and campenaerts took over

in the 7'49" attack , they closed a gap of 1'15" to jorge . it was a fairly strong attack ( just watch lipo ) , but the botched execution didnt even allow for an all out effort to the top

That's why Glandon should not be there in stages like that.