Comprehensive Climbers Ranking

[Pozzovivo]

Regardless of which climb I have analyzed, my system has always been quite good and coherent (in my opinion). Today's performance by Pogacar literally exploded my database. This is at least an other level up from PdB.

On these kind of shallow climbs, I can always bring the numbers down by adjusting some things, but this would mean that I have overestimated all previous efforts (on shallow climbs) until now. Maybe I am still overestimating CdA and CRR or underestimating the motodraft.

Can anyone of you give me feedback on what you think Pogacar's CdA is on a climb like Cipressa? He is not the most aero guy for sure and also does standing attacks... (although his aero game has improved for sure over the years)


I probably won't post any numbers for today, but let's say that Mou's mythical 8.5 w/kg for 12 minutes is not so unrealistic anymore. At least for road cycling, this might be the best athletic performance in history.

(It should also be mentioned that Pogacar's descending (which he trained a lot) was very good and key to winning. he also managed the sprint quite well.)

Can you tell us if your system index depart heavily from w2w's index of 93 on Cipressa today?

Regardless forecasted conditions, I think Pogacar had excellent wind conditions judging from flags, leaves and bushes. Also, huge motordraft at all times. Something needs to be done about that.

....Or is this actually by design from the UCI/race org, idk anymore.

 

[Red Rick]

I don't know about actual CdA numbers, but if it's way out of line with steeper climbs I'd be very sceptical. I'll reference the study that simulated motor drafting effects. While it was simulated at 54 kph, I think the speeds of the Cipressa and Poggio still make it very relevant.

It basically finds like 15% less air resistance 15m behind a single motor at 54kph, and there's more than 1 motor in front at nearly all time, and sometimes they form an entire group just before the lead rider.

The simplest test for me is if Pidcock and MvdP get numbers that are over the top for their climbing chops then that's a big red flag.

 

[Peyresourde]

Can you tell us if your system index depart heavily from w2w's index of 93 on Cipressa today?

Regardless forecasted conditions, I think Pogacar had excellent wind conditions judging from flags, leaves and bushes. Also, huge motordraft at all times. Something needs to be done about that.

....Or is this actually by design from the UCI/race org, idk anymore.

I have not done a detailed video anlalysis yet, this will take some time. But at minimum, Pogacar should have done 2 consecutive performances above 100. W2W on Cipressa is already very low (but maybe in the realm of possibility), and a 71 Index for the Poggio is completely ridiculous.

Pogacar led basically the whole Poggio and almost equaled the record on the climb, thats after Cipressa and pulling on the flat! The wind was a bit favourable at least on the Poggio, but still..

I don't know about actual CdA numbers, but if it's way out of line with steeper climbs I'd be very sceptical. I'll reference the study that simulated motor drafting effects. While it was simulated at 54 kph, I think the speeds of the Cipressa and Poggio still make it very relevant.

It basically finds like 15% less air resistance 15m behind a single motor at 54kph, and there's more than 1 motor in front at nearly all time, and sometimes they form an entire group just before the lead rider.

The simplest test for me is if Pidcock and MvdP get numbers that are over the top for their climbing chops then that's a big red flag.

It is out of line, but also not so much that I can just categorically dismiss it. Just from watching I thought it was an incredible performance. Who is to say that it can't be better than PdB?
Pogacar also looks quite big this year, so he has a relative advantage on shallow climbs because I use 60kg etalon watts.

*Pidcock did not do a PB (at least in raw w/kg), though the two consecutive efforts are impressive. He is really a beast on this length of climb.

 

[Peyresourde]

Another big uncertainty factor for sub 10 minute climbs is getting the entry and exit speed right, especially if they are high.
An entry speed of 53 or 57 kph for Cipressa makes a substantial difference for the watt calculation.

 

[Red Rick]

I have not done a detailed video anlalysis yet, this will take some time. But at minimum, Pogacar should have done 2 consecutive performances above 100. W2W on Cipressa is already very low (but maybe in the realm of possibility), and a 71 Index for the Poggio is completely ridiculous.

Pogacar led basically the whole Poggio and almost equaled the record on the climb, thats after Cipressa and pulling on the flat! The wind was a bit favourable at least on the Poggio, but still..



It is out of line, but also not so much that I can just categorically dismiss it. Just from watching I thought it was an incredible performance. Who is to say that it can't be better than PdB?
Pogacar also looks quite big this year, so he has a relative advantage on shallow climbs because I use 60kg etalon watts.

*Pidcock did not do a PB (at least in raw w/kg), though the two consecutive efforts are impressive. He is really a beast on this length of climb.

I think being close to record on the Poggio isn't that strange, because I think when the Poggio is raced as normal, the pacing strategy is bad because the best riders don't come out of their shell until the final 800m of the climb or so. So a flatter or more positive split effort is considerably better in my view.

As for riding hard on the flat section in the middle, it's still a 3 man group that are probably not completely on the limit on the flat section, plus it's literally sea level. I think some relative recovery should be expected. Pretty sure we've seen the likes of Vingegaard, Evenepoel, and Roglic also do great short climbs with fairly limited drop off in their longer solo wins.

 

[Peyresourde]

I think being close to record on the Poggio isn't that strange, because I think when the Poggio is raced as normal, the pacing strategy is bad because the best riders don't come out of their shell until the final 800m of the climb or so. So a flatter or more positive split effort is considerably better in my view.

As for riding hard on the flat section in the middle, it's still a 3 man group that are probably not completely on the limit on the flat section, plus it's literally sea level. I think some relative recovery should be expected. Pretty sure we've seen the likes of Vingegaard, Evenepoel, and Roglic also do great short climbs with fairly limited drop off in their longer solo wins.

I don't believe that pulling on the flat counts as recovery, and my data shows that the second effort after riding hard for a while is almost always worse than the first.
Evenepoel actually does not have a single performance above 80 on a short climb and I don't know which Vingegaard or Roglic effort you are referring to.

I agree with you that the Poggio record is not very strong and easily beatable, but getting close with only the motodraft after the effort he has already done is really serious.

 

[Red Rick]

I don't believe that pulling on the flat counts as recovery, and my data shows that the second effort after riding hard for a while is almost always worse than the first.
Evenepoel actually does not have a single performance above 80 on a short climb and I don't know which Vingegaard or Roglic effort you are referring to.

I agree with you that the Poggio record is not very strong and easily beatable, but getting close with only the motodraft after the effort he has already done is really serious.

Yes there should be drop off but I don't think it needs to be that extreme.

 

[AmRacer]

I don't believe that pulling on the flat counts as recovery, and my data shows that the second effort after riding hard for a while is almost always worse than the first.
Evenepoel actually does not have a single performance above 80 on a short climb and I don't know which Vingegaard or Roglic effort you are referring to.

I agree with you that the Poggio record is not very strong and easily beatable, but getting close with only the motodraft after the effort he has already done is really serious.

If they race only 50k or 100k before Poggio, they would smash the record.

 

[Peyresourde]

If they race only 50k or 100k before Poggio, they would smash the record.

Yes, of course. And the Poggio is even more difficult to calculate than the Cipressa (shorter, shallower, tight hairpins). Previously, I even used to adjust up the watts manually on Poggio because they had to break in some corners (or at least not pedal for a while).

Going forward, that is why I will probably not calculate the Poggio anymore (and maybe remove the old references I have in the OP). I will instead try to get it right with the Cipressa. I will redo my old calculations and look into every parameter that goes into the calc.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

What is the calculations resolution in your results? Are climbs divided into sectors of some length? (esp. when gradient varies). Or is it just an averaged result from climbing time and climb data?

 

[Peyresourde]

What is the calculations resolution in your results? Are climbs divided into sectors of some length? (esp. when gradient varies). Or is it just an averaged result from climbing time and climb data?

Normally I only calculate the watts for the whole climb. I try to adjust for irregular climbs (flat sections and short descents) as best as possible by increasing the w/kg by a certain percentage.

I have segmented some longer climbs with varying gradients to test my method and it mostly adds up. For Cipressa I have not done that yet, but I will probably calculate a segment of the 5% sections (until left turn).

My results for Cipressa were also not that crazy (it will probably land in the 105-110 range after I do some more adjustments for motodraft etc.). I was mainly surprised by my preliminary Poggio results, which is why I decided to exclude them from now on.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

Normally I only calculate the watts for the whole climb. I try to adjust for irregular climbs (flat sections and short descents) as best as possible by increasing the w/kg by a certain percentage.

Irregular climbs are indeed difficult to adjust accurately without dividing into sectors of similar gradient. For more regular climbs resolution matters much less of course.