Comprehensive Climbers Ranking

[vappa]

After redoing my Cipressa and Poggio segments, my numbers for MSR:

Tadej Pogacar | 108 (+1): 7.94 W/kg for 8:49 on Cipressa (MSR 2026)

Pidcock and van der Poel did 7.47 and 7.42 w/kg respectively. As Pidcock is a bit under 60kg, he did even slightly more in real watts/kg and van der Poel (75kg) did much less (~6.9+ w/kg).

This is the third highest Index in my database, although Pogacar also slightly 'profits' from the use of 60kg eW/kg here. A consideration in the other direction is that the pacing was less regular than on PdB, making this more impressive.


[I said I won't publish my Poggio numbers anymore due the extremely high uncertainties, so take this with an extra grain of salt: Even after giving a substantial penalty for motor-drafting, I still calculated ~8 w/kg for 5:44 on Poggio. This would (after positive adjustments due to the prior Cipressa effort) result in a final Index of around 100 for the Poggio.]

Two consecutive efforts of 100+ are unprecedented, making this a candidate for the strongest overall w/kg performance in history. Of course you can argue that the watts are somewhat 'wasted' for a race like MSR, where there are easier ways to win. You can decide for yourself if this makes the performance more or less impressive.



Finally: Pogacar did around 0.2+ w/kg more than last year on both climbs (8+ Index points). Last years Cipressa (now 98 after recalc, which was in the Top 24 list will be replaced by this years).
MvdP did similar watts as last year on Cipressa and slightly more on Poggio (though with much more regular pacing making this easier).

Overall, I tried to be too low rather than too high with the result, but it is still not certain by any means. If I get new information in the future about CdA, CRR or measured power numbers etc. I might still correct the calculation again.

If it helps your calculation in any way, apparently he used 28mm tires instead of 30mm like last year

 

[Peyresourde]

If it helps your calculation in any way, apparently he used 28mm tires instead of 30mm like last year

Thanks, but this is too specific to be of help. Nobody can calculate the exact difference in CdA just based on the components used. He also used a new helmet that I assume is a bit faster.

 

[Red Rick]

He's also fatter, which is more aero.

 

[Red Rick]

The CdA I used is still a bit higher. 0.25 really seems unrealistically low if you look at their (or specifically Pogacar's) position on the bike while climbing, especially considering the standing attacks. Or do you have a source/basis for using 0.25?

No I just remember 0.25 being used on some climbs, but I think that was partially drafting.

Pog should also get a small aero benefit from Pidcock being in his wheel.

 

[Peyresourde]

No I just remember 0.25 being used on some climbs, but I think that was partially drafting.

Pog should also get a small aero benefit from Pidcock being in his wheel.

The benefit of having 1 rider on your wheel should be about 1 %. I do consider that already.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

He's also fatter, which is more aero.

An interesting question is what weight is optimal for Pogacar for a fast climb like Cipressa? Probably not his skinniest 64 kg version. Unfortunately it's impossible to simulate without knowing his power gains when at 66-68 kg (they are likely considerably lower than 6 watts per additional kg at threshold).

Obviously when there's a very strong tailwind than the skinniest version could be the best but I'm assuming neutral conditions.

 

[Peyresourde]

An interesting question is what weight is optimal for Pogacar for a fast climb like Cipressa? Probably not his skinniest 64 kg version. Unfortunately it's impossible to simulate without knowing his power gains when at 66-68 kg (they are likely considerably lower than 6 watts per additional kg at threshold).

Obviously when there's a very strong tailwind than the skinniest version could be the best but I'm assuming neutral conditions.

If we base it on my watts estimation and say his aero stays exactly the same regardless of his weight (which is not completely realistic):

At 64kg, he would have had to push 496 watts = 7.75 w/kg
At 68kg, he would have had to push 515 watts = 7.57 w/kg

So he would need around 5 watts more per kilo extra to be faster.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

If we base it on my watts estimation and say his aero stays exactly the same regardless of his weight (which is not completely realistic):

At 64kg, he would have had to push 496 watts = 7.75 w/kg
At 68kg, he would have had to push 515 watts = 7.57 w/kg

So he would need around 5 watts more per kilo extra to be faster.

So around 4.5 watts per additional kg at threshold. Seems doable but this bulk-up should be done properly (a lot of additional muscle fibres, not much fat).

 

[Netserk]

but i thought 5 kg extra or less wouldnt affect power output

 

[Krzysztof_O]

but i thought 5 kg extra or less wouldnt affect power output

In case of Fatco or Ulle it wouldn't.

 

[Netserk]

In case of Fatco or Ulle it wouldn't.

its only fatco in winter , when he bulks up to become a sprinter he is known as mr muscles

 

[Krzysztof_O]

its only fatco in winter , when he bulks up to become a sprinter he is known as mr muscles

Seriously though, when bulking-up they want to minimize fat increase while going the other way they want to maximize fat decrease (Ullrich had it easiest) . Unfortunately I don't know any sources telling what kind of % we are talking about. Also power increase depend on other parts of oxygen chain so it's very individual (cyclists with larger cardiac output should be able to enlarge their engine easier).

 

[Pozzovivo]

Clearly the climbing performance of the year by Vingegaard yesterday, even considering of what the estimates suggest.

Impressive to take such big time gaps against a strong field without proper leadout. Gall was also mega strong and need a team that can back him with correct tactics. Could have been much closer if Riccitello et al helped him.

Also, interesting to see so many pure climbers doing well on a windy and kinda shallow gradient climb. VPP and Martinez looking pretty good.

Remco was very disappointing (hopefully it was due to the crash).

 

[vappa]

Clearly the climbing performance of the year by Vingegaard yesterday, even considering of what the estimates suggest.

Impressive to take such big time gaps against a strong field without proper leadout. Gall was also mega strong and need a team that can back him with correct tactics. Could have been much closer if Riccitello et al helped him.

Also, interesting to see so many pure climbers doing well on a windy and kinda shallow gradient climb. VPP and Martinez looking pretty good.

Remco was very disappointing (hopefully it was due to the crash).

I wouldn't include VPP here, he's so thin the wind doesn't even affect him

 

[Peyresourde]

The 2024 and 2026 stages to Queralt were almost the same, so I wanted to do a side-by-side analysis of the two stages. As Vingegaard appeared to be in complete management mode and was driven around by his teammates from Redbull, this exercise became a bit less interesting, but nevertheless:

Tadej Pogacar | 61 (+6): 6.00 W/kg for 20:54 on Pradell Top (Catalunya 2024)
Peloton | 61 (+6): 6.00 W/kg for 20:47 on Pradell Top (Catalunya 2026)

Tadej Pogacar | 80 (-1): 6.96 W/kg for 13:43 on Isidre (Catalunya 2024)
Remco Evenepoel | 67 (-1): 6.61 W/kg for 14:09 on Isidre (Catalunya 2026)

Tadej Pogacar | 81 (+7): 6.79 W/kg for 13:49 on Queralt (Catalunya 2024)
Jonas Vingegaard | 75 (+3): 6.74 W/kg for 13:36 on Queralt (Catalunya 2026)


The pace on Pradell was similar/slightly higher than in 2024, but we had a much bigger group over the top (The pace on the lower slopes before my segment may have been lower this year).

Pogacar then did his big attack on Isidre and soloed to the win also with a great climb to Queralt. This was a strong performance for spring (equal to his 2021 Tour de France Romme+Colombiere combo).

In contrast, this year it was a more controlled race and Vingegaard seemed content do to do the least amount possible to win instead of truly testing his legs.


Overall, it is impossible to say how much faster he could have gone, but in terms of on the road performance no one was close to Pogacar 24 this year.

 

[Red Rick]

Even similar stages near impossible to directly compare. But Strava only has a 5s difference on Sant Isidre, and Evenepoel was more than 2 minutes faster on the intermediate section while doing most of the work.

Even if there was more headwind in 2024, it's unlikely that causes like a 15% difference in speed, so Pogacar likely took it quite a bit easier on that section than Evenepoel.

 

[Peyresourde]

Even similar stages near impossible to directly compare. But Strava only has a 5s difference on Sant Isidre, and Evenepoel was more than 2 minutes faster on the intermediate section while doing most of the work.

Even if there was more headwind in 2024, it's unlikely that causes like a 15% difference in speed, so Pogacar likely took it quite a bit easier on that section than Evenepoel.

The strava time by Evenepoel is clearly wrong. Onley who was in the same group has a much slower time closer to my timing. There may even have been a tailwind on the climb which I did not count as I was not sure about it.

Evenepoel indeed pushed harder than Pogacar in the valley (although as you mention there was a strong headwind on this section in 2024). You can even say that his overall performance today was better than Vingegaard's, but as he says, he can't go 'over the limit'.

This seems to always be the case with Evenepoel when he is not in 100 % shape: He can push hard for a long time on the flat, but can't push the extra watts on climbs.


And Vingegaard did much less work than Pogacar in 2024 before the last climb (slower Isidre and 100% drafting in the valley). The main reason it can't really be compared is still that Vingegaard simply did not go all out and no one knows how much margin he had.

 

[Pozzovivo]

The main reason it can't really be compared is still that Vingegaard simply did not go all out and no one knows how much margin he had.

Interesting post! He did however go all out the day prior, so his level there should give us an indication.

According to my criteria (time gap compared to strength of competition), it was the performance of the year. Very strong.

 

[Peyresourde]

Interesting post! He did however go all out the day prior, so his level there should give us an indication.

According to my criteria (time gap compared to strength of competition), it was the performance of the year. Very strong.

The performance on Pal was certainly strong, but to say it was clearly the strongest is a bit of a stretch (only if you just count 30 min+ climbs).
I would rate Tiberi on Jebel Mobrah equally strong. He also had a gap of 51 seconds to Gall (on a shorter effort) and the competition was quite decent with Del Toro and Johannessen etc.

If you also look at shorter climbs, Seixas in Faun Ardeche did a stronger performance than Vingeggaard on Pal for certain.

 

[Pozzovivo]

The performance on Pal was certainly strong, but to say it was clearly the strongest is a bit of a stretch (only if you just count 30 min+ climbs).
I would rate Tiberi on Jebel Mobrah equally strong. He also had a gap of 51 seconds to Gall (on a shorter effort) and the competition was quite decent with Del Toro and Johannessen etc.

If you also look at shorter climbs, Seixas in Faun Ardeche did a stronger performance than Vingeggaard on Pal for certain.

Well, I think the competition VaC is so much deeper than in Faun Ardeche, so I rate Vingegaards performance above Seixas'. I'd be interestd to see how it would index.

On second thought, Lenny Martinez is a common denominator, and he gets beaten convincingly by both, so perhaps quite similar, and not "clearly" the strongest.

Comparisons of this nature are not easy, but I have very little doubt that this Vingegaard level is above Tiberi in UAE. Meaning: If Vingegaard had attended UAE - he would have dropped Tiberi on Mobrah, and conversely, If Tiberi had showed up in Catalunya, Vingegaard would have dropped him on Pal.

 

[Peyresourde]

Well, I think the competition VaC is so much deeper than in Faun Ardeche, so I rate Vingegaards performance above Seixas'. I'd be interestd to see how it would index.

On second thought, Lenny Martinez is a common denominator, and he gets beaten convincingly by both, so perhaps quite similar, and not "clearly" the strongest.

Comparisons of this nature are not easy, but I have very little doubt that this Vingegaard level is above Tiberi in UAE. Meaning: If Vingegaard had attended UAE - he would have dropped Tiberi on Mobrah, and conversely, If Tiberi had showed up in Catalunya, Vingegaard would have dropped him on Pal.

Seixas was:

Paul Seixas | 93 (-3): 7.21 W/kg for 16:26 on Saint-Romain-de-Lerps

Personally, I am 100% sure that Seixas had the better performance there compared to Vingegaard on Pal. Even with your method of just looking at gaps, he put 40 seconds into Jorgenson and Martinez on a short climb (both were on good form) while leading almost the whole way up. His level was also confirmed the next week in Strade Bianche.

As for Tiberi, of course Vingegaard is much better. This was a clear career best performance for Tiberi while Vingegaard can do similar every day of the week. I still don't believe this Vingegaard would have put much into Tiberi that specific day (unless he would have cracked him with an attack like Del Toro a few days later).

 

[Red Rick]

How are we that confident Jorgenson and Martinez were that great, it's early February races.

 

[Rou]

How are we that confident Jorgenson and Martinez were that great, it's early February races.

Not only that. Seixas was at altitude following a monk training protocol while Jonas (as far as I know) still hasn't been at altitude and casually drops better opposition on harder terrain.

 

[AmRacer]

Not only that. Seixas was at altitude following a monk training protocol while Jonas (as far as I know) still hasn't been at altitude and casually drops better opposition on harder terrain.

Training at the Danish mountains makes you a world class climber.

 

[Peyresourde]

How are we that confident Jorgenson and Martinez were that great, it's early February races.

Not only that. Seixas was at altitude following a monk training protocol while Jonas (as far as I know) still hasn't been at altitude and casually drops better opposition on harder terrain.

As I said, this is just my opinion based on my numbers and the context.

Jorgenson has been consistently good since that race (and almost won the next day). And regardless of how good the oponents were that day, for me Seixas' performance speaks for itself. (I also calculated the number for the Sante Marie climb in Strade. The uncertainties are high with the gravel, but he was also very strong there.)


This does not suddenly make Seixas a better climber than Vingegaard. After all, it was a one-off performance after a supposedly perfect preparation while Vingegaard is just in spring mode and did not pace the climb (Pal) optimally. You can also legitimately say that Faun Ardeche was not a real climb/mountain stage.