Contador Crash - Tour Disaster ?

[plagioni]

Froome and Contador dropping out of the TdF obviously hurt the show big time, but in no way belittle Nibali's performances and his possible win in Paris. Not his fault if Froome can't handle his bike and crashed over and over again and Contador lost time on the cobbles and, as reports indicate, took a big risk to take that time back on the descent today, leading to his crashing out (sucks for his broken tibia, hopefully he's back soon).

Bike handling and strategy is a big part of what makes a great cyclist, it's not only about brute force. Nibali did have top competition when the Tour started, matter of fact all the best GT cyclists were there other than Quintana, they crashed out because they made a mistake, Nibali didn't, hence, so far, he showed he's an overall better rider than them in this Tour.

 

[maxmartin]

I voted yes mostly because of the cobbles. I can see Nibali losing some time in the mountains, but he has such a big gap on his rivals that it looks like it will be a procession. But I thought that about Contador right after the Froome crash, so what do I really know?

to whom? unless a big breakaway was let go

 

[xanadu]

It will be refreshing to see a new TdF champion. The old guard knows that bike handling is very important to staying in the race. With 2 former TdF winners crashing out, it underscores the risky and unpredictable nature of the competition. Rest assured, the best man will win. Better luck next year to Froome and Contador.

Indeed, a new brand new champ but as you say the loss of Froome and Contador will be felt.
Now quick go and get some bubble wrap for Nibali.

 

[maxmartin]

Froome and Contador dropping out of the TdF obviously hurt the show big time, but in no way belittle Nibali's performances and his possible win in Paris. Not his fault if Froome can't handle his bike and crashed over and over again and Contador lost time on the cobbles and, as reports indicate, took a big risk to take that time back on the descent today, leading to his crashing out (sucks for his broken tibia, hopefully he's back soon).

Bike handling and strategy is a big part of what makes a great cyclist, it's not only about brute force. Nibali did have top competition when the Tour started, matter of fact all the best GT cyclists were there other than Quintana, they crashed out because they made a mistake, Nibali didn't, hence, so far, he showed he's an overall better rider than them in this Tour.

the weather plays into Nibali's hand, he just cope the wet condition better than any current GT riders. Still remember in 2012 Tour, Nibali was hoping for the rain. But weather is part of the road race, after all we are not doing indoor track.

 

[Tonton]

I voted NO. I may be wrong:
Scenario A: riders attack, let Astana chase, wear Nibali down.
Scenario B: Ritchie and Piti want to podium so bad that they send their teams to chase after the TJVG, Pinot, and the likes when they attack. And/or chase each other, racing for second like in the Big Mig and LA years (i.e. JU and Kloden chasing an attacking Vino - even worse, they were in the same team ).

 

[Futuroscope]

Froome and Contador dropping out of the TdF obviously hurt the show big time, but in no way belittle Nibali's performances and his possible win in Paris. Not his fault if Froome can't handle his bike and crashed over and over again and Contador lost time on the cobbles and, as reports indicate, took a big risk to take that time back on the descent today, leading to his crashing out (sucks for his broken tibia, hopefully he's back soon).

Bike handling and strategy is a big part of what makes a great cyclist, it's not only about brute force. Nibali did have top competition when the Tour started, matter of fact all the best GT cyclists were there other than Quintana, they crashed out because they made a mistake, Nibali didn't, hence, so far, he showed he's an overall better rider than them in this Tour.

Yes, Contador lost time on the cobbles but people who believe that Nibali would have continued to dominate the race are delusional. Froome and Contador would have destroyed him in the mountains. If he wins it's because Froome and Contador crashed out.

 

[Escarabajo]

Ok lets examine the evidence:

Froome got sideswiped by Keukeleire who had to avoid a Belkin rider - Not his fault!

We don't yet know what happened to Contador, but it seems his frame broke somehow - Not his fault.

Will Nibali deserve the Tour if he wins, in my opinion yes, he'll be the strongest rider in this race, but lets not pretend Froome and Contador caused their own downfall.

- Froome: Which one of his three falls?

- Contador: He was trying to pass on the descend from what I hear now.

 

[plagioni]

Yes, Contador lost time on the cobbles but people who believe that Nibali would have continued to dominate the race are delusional. Froome and Contador would have destroyed him in the mountains. If he wins it's because Froome and Contador crashed out.

Pointless to argue about that though, we'll never know, and, if today's stage is any indication, Contador would have had a very hard time getting those 2 minutes and a half back.

My point is, Froome and Contador crashed out, arguably as a result of their own mistakes. It's not like they were pushed to the ground by a spectator or anything like that. Nibali stayed on his bike on these extremely tricky roads, his opponents couldn't. Being able to face adverse weather conditions, difficult descents and irregular roads is part of being a cyclist. Froome would beat Nibali any day of the week on an exercise bike, but, as we've seen, not in an actual race.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

It's really bad for the race and I'm sorry for Alberto. Nibali has 2 and half minute cushion over the rest and now he looks to be the strongest. Unless something unexpected happens (crash or hunger knock for Nibali) this Tour is probably over. And if something really happens to Nibali I don't know if we could have a worthy winner.

 

[Futuroscope]

It's really bad for the race and I'm sorry for Alberto. Nibali has 2 and half minute cushion over the rest and now he looks to be the strongest. Unless something unexpected happens (crash or hunger knock for Nibali) this Tour is probably over. And if something really happens to Nibali I don't know if we could have a worthy winner.

Contador and Froome would have been head and shoulders above everyone else. There can be no worthy winner without them in the race.

 

[Eriana]

Posted this on the stage thread but think it more relevant here

----------------------------

I agree with carlton Kirby

I think the Tour is wide open now.

A podium is staring potentially 10 riders in the face.

Horner
JVDB
Talansky
Porte
Mollema
TJVG
Valverde
Rolland
Kwia ?? Possibly (gains time in TT)
Rui Costa - scraping the barrel now ?


If anyone of these gets a few minutes on Nibbles in an attack then the Yellow is up for grabs.

Also can Astana defend against so many teams ??

Game on I think (hope )

Horner - No, no real team for the Alps, no real TT skill. He is 7 minutes down
JVDB - team really tried, but they were scraped off the pavement in the last 2 climbs, so no
Talansky - No, don't make me laugh, he is 14 minutes down, JV just said on twitter that they are switching to plan B and hoping to show good racing to fans, so no
TJVG - did you see a train around TJ? No? Me either. They are racing like every guy for himself. Left with 1 real endurance climber, Stetina. So no
Rolland - 6 minutes behind, really struggled today, burned through team like they were matchsticks, so no
Kwia - after being taken by Tony Martin in a taxi, he suffocated on last 2 climbs. Tourmale will whipe him out, so no
Rui Costa - see Horner comments

Possible contenders remain
Mollema - possible, team is rested, they didn't really work, have good climbers. Both he and team are hungry, team for last chance sponsor, he for a higher salary at the new team. 4 minutes down
Valverde - even better option, can TT (unlike Molema), team somewhat rested and with very good climbers
Porte - the dark horse. He could either tank or produce the big surprise. Don't understand why they were chasing today. Today he looked beat but he is endurance - long distance climber, not steep climber. Better TT-er than Nibs

I'd put my money on Valverde.

 

[Afrank]

Contador and Froome would have been head and shoulders above everyone else. There can be no worthy winner without them in the race.

Nibali's performance on the cobbles alone make him a worthy winner.

 

[Escarabajo]

Contador and Froome would have been head and shoulders above everyone else. There can be no worthy winner without them in the race.

So Nibali should only participate in races where Contador and Froome don't race. Right?
Otherwise He is not the true winner.

Did you see Contador last year? what is the story on him last year? bother to explain.

 

[wwabbit]

It greatly diminishes the achievement, should he win the Tour, although that isn't, of course, his fault.

There's only one rider left who might try and challenge him.

Maybe with last year's form, Porte can match or better Nibali. Porte doesn't seem to have that form this year though.
But who knows, maybe Porte will improve over the next few days and put himself within ITT range.

 

[Pippo_San]

So Nibali should only participate in races where Contador and Froome don't race. Right?
Otherwise He is not the true winner.

Did you see Contador last year? what is the story on him last year? bother to explain.

I suggest you don't feed the troll (or sore loser if you prefer).

The final verdict is the one made by the road. When there are no DSQ for clinic reasons, EVERYTHING THAT HAPPENS IS SQUARE AND FAIR.

This is pro cycling. DEAL WITH IT dudes.

 

[djpbaltimore]

to whom? unless a big breakaway was let go

He has enough of a cushion that he might not cover all the attacks and let someone up the road. And the high mountains in the third week might be a different animal than the Vosges. I guess Valverde? Porte? Pinot? Hard to imagine it happening after Nibali's efforts today, but even Froome began to fade in 2013, so I guess it is still a possibility.

 

[LaFlorecita]

So Nibali should only participate in races where Contador and Froome don't race. Right?
Otherwise He is not the true winner.

Did you see Contador last year? what is the story on him last year? bother to explain.

No, but it leaves a bit of a bad taste when he wins because the two main favorites crashed out. That is all

 

[Red Rick]

I think Nibali is the only worthy possible Tour winner left in the race right now. It's a shame that despite his general awesomeness his has to win this way. He can't help, nobody can. Everyone had deserved better

 

[Futuroscope]

So Nibali should only participate in races where Contador and Froome don't race. Right?
Otherwise He is not the true winner.

Did you see Contador last year? what is the story on him last year? bother to explain.

Last year he lost fair and square. This year would have been a different story, he was in top shape again. In the mountains Nibali isn't good enough to handle a Contador in top shape.

 

[LaFlorecita]

I think Nibali is the only worthy possible Tour winner left in the race right now. It's a shame that despite his general awesomeness his has to win this way. He can't help, nobody can. Everyone had deserved better

Completely agree.

 

[Arredondo]

Horner - No, no real team for the Alps, no real TT skill. He is 7 minutes down
JVDB - team really tried, but they were scraped off the pavement in the last 2 climbs, so no
Talansky - No, don't make me laugh, he is 14 minutes down, JV just said on twitter that they are switching to plan B and hoping to show good racing to fans, so no
TJVG - did you see a train around TJ? No? Me either. They are racing like every guy for himself. Left with 1 real endurance climber, Stetina. So no
Rolland - 6 minutes behind, really struggled today, burned through team like they were matchsticks, so no
Kwia - after being taken by Tony Martin in a taxi, he suffocated on last 2 climbs. Tourmale will whipe him out, so no
Rui Costa - see Horner comments

Possible contenders remain
Mollema - possible, team is rested, they didn't really work, have good climbers. Both he and team are hungry, team for last chance sponsor, he for a higher salary at the new team. 4 minutes down
Valverde - even better option, can TT (unlike Molema), team somewhat rested and with very good climbers
Porte - the dark horse. He could either tank or produce the big surprise. Don't understand why they were chasing today. Today he looked beat but he is endurance - long distance climber, not steep climber. Better TT-er than Nibs

I'd put my money on Valverde.

Too bad for Belkin that Mollema himself is not as good as last year. In this kind of climbs he should be able to at least follow the better man. He isn't going to do it on the longer climbs, just look at last year. Mollema should be happy if he can get a top-10 place in GC.

Only serious podium candidates are Porte, Valverde, Pinot and Peraud in my opinion. Likely the first two will take it.

 

[maxmartin]

He has enough of a cushion that he might not cover all the attacks and let someone up the road. And the high mountains in the third week might be a different animal than the Vosges. I guess Valverde? Porte? Pinot? Hard to imagine it happening after Nibali's efforts today, but even Froome began to fade in 2013, so I guess it is still a possibility.

Nibali is not Froom, from the get go Nibali's coach said they were aiming to peak the best at the third week, therefore fighting in the Dauphine does not fit their training plan. He showed no weakness at all in 2013 Giro, so I would not bet against him. I

 

[maxmartin]

I suggest you don't feed the troll (or sore loser if you prefer).

The final verdict is the one made by the road. When there are no DSQ for clinic reasons, EVERYTHING THAT HAPPENS IS SQUARE AND FAIR.

This is pro cycling. DEAL WITH IT dudes.

can't said better myself.

 

[Fight.The.Power]

Horner - No, no real team for the Alps, no real TT skill. He is 7 minutes down
JVDB - team really tried, but they were scraped off the pavement in the last 2 climbs, so no
Talansky - No, don't make me laugh, he is 14 minutes down, JV just said on twitter that they are switching to plan B and hoping to show good racing to fans, so no
TJVG - did you see a train around TJ? No? Me either. They are racing like every guy for himself. Left with 1 real endurance climber, Stetina. So no
Rolland - 6 minutes behind, really struggled today, burned through team like they were matchsticks, so no
Kwia - after being taken by Tony Martin in a taxi, he suffocated on last 2 climbs. Tourmale will whipe him out, so no
Rui Costa - see Horner comments

Possible contenders remain
Mollema - possible, team is rested, they didn't really work, have good climbers. Both he and team are hungry, team for last chance sponsor, he for a higher salary at the new team. 4 minutes down
Valverde - even better option, can TT (unlike Molema), team somewhat rested and with very good climbers
Porte - the dark horse. He could either tank or produce the big surprise. Don't understand why they were chasing today. Today he looked beat but he is endurance - long distance climber, not steep climber. Better TT-er than Nibs

I'd put my money on Valverde.

Clearly it is easier to make these calls after todays race. Please bare in mind that I made these comments when the peloton was largely together (just after Contadors chute)

But nonetheless the conclusions you draw are hard to argue with at this moment in time and indeed the whole Tour looks much more like an Astana steamroll than it did.

However, we do have a rest day tomorrow and there will be an awful lot of strategizing by DS's and basically everyone will be ripping up Plan A because the dynamics of the Tour have fundamentally changed.

Although many top riders will be in a haze right now, they will surely be reinvigorated when they realise that a podium is on the cards. This desire for a podium could cause one too many attacks for Nibali and Astana and it is still very possible he cracks on a big mountain day.

Just because Nibali looked so dominant today does not mean he will have the most energy come the crescendo of the Tour. We have not yet hit the high mountains don't forget and Nibali has put an awful lot into the first week.

But overall I must face the facts that Nibali is now overwhelmingly in the ascendency and it would need a very aggressive peloton to snatch the 2014 crown from Sicily !

Good post mate ! +1

 

[trevim]

The problem with Contador crashing out is that no one else in the top will take any sort of risk to win. They'll all be happy with an anonymous top10. That'll definitely be a problem for the race regarding spectacle.
The only thing that may spice it up a bit is the fact that Astana will defend the jersey for like 20 days which might take a toll. We'll see.