Contador Crash - Tour Disaster ?

[Hayabusa]

I think it's disaster in terms of the spectacle, Nibali is the 4th best stage racer in the world (Not in the league of the Top 3 but miles ahead of the next group) and will easily win the Tour barring some massive tactical fail.

Can't blame him for all that though, he'll be a deserved winner. His cobbles performance was amazing and he has put himself in the position to capitalise where others have fallen by the wayside.

 

[maxmartin]

The problem with Contador crashing out is that no one else in the top will take any sort of risk to win. They'll all be happy with an anonymous top10. That'll definitely be a problem for the race regarding spectacle.

SKY may want to do something, after all they won the last two editions

 

[red_flanders]

Contador and Froome would have been head and shoulders above everyone else. There can be no worthy winner without them in the race.

Nibali has been as strong or stronger, and has ridden with more panache over this course.

He is a worthy winner, (if not the most worthy) and the only one remaining IMO.

 

[warmfuzzies]

No, the best men (Froome/Contador) already lost or didn't compete (Quintana).

Your statement fails to acknowledge that it is the best man over 20 stages that wins the TdF, and that level of risk-taking is an important strategic factor. Every rider chooses how aggressively they ride wet downhill mountain stretches. Today, Contador felt his best strategy was to take a high level of risk on that downhill. To be the best man @ the TdF, you have to finish the race in 1st place. This year, neither Contador nor Froome are the best man. Deal with it.

 

[warmfuzzies]

I think it's disaster in terms of the spectacle, Nibali is the 4th best stage racer in the world (Not in the league of the Top 3 but miles ahead of the next group) and will easily win the Tour barring some massive tactical fail.

Can't blame him for all that though, he'll be a deserved winner. His cobbles performance was amazing and he has put himself in the position to capitalise where others have fallen by the wayside.

I'm curious to understand how you determined Nibali is currently the 4th best stage racer in the world.

 

[cineteq]

No, but it leaves a bit of a bad taste when he wins because the two main favorites crashed out. That is all

The 2 big 'media' favorites or the real favorites? In my book, Nibali was always the overall favorite. He's overcome all obstacles thus far, he's shown he had the best preparation fron the start.

 

[Hayabusa]

I'm curious to understand how you determined Nibali is currently the 4th best stage racer in the world.

My opinion. Contador, Froome and Quintana are all better than him in my opinion.

No need to get so defensive...

 

[Jspear]

Your statement fails to acknowledge that it is the best man over 20 stages that wins the TdF, and that level of risk-taking is an important strategic factor. Every rider chooses how aggressively they ride wet downhill mountain stretches. Today, Contador felt his best strategy was to take a high level of risk on that downhill. To be the best man @ the TdF, you have to finish the race in 1st place. This year, neither Contador nor Froome are the best man. Deal with it.

I agree with you almost all the way...I'm not making any excuses for AC, BUT - there is a level of luck when it comes to riding gt's. Many a time riders have crashed even when they were in the "perfect" position. Yes you have to be the best over 20 stages....it takes huge physical abilities, mental abilities, technique, and some luck.

 

[LaFlorecita]

The 2 big 'media' favorites or the real favorites? In my book, Nibali was always the overall favorite. He's overcome all obstacles thus far, he's shown he had the best preparation fron the start.

Well, I don't think many people agree with that.

 

[Jspear]

My opinion. Contador, Froome and Quintana are all better than him in my opinion.

No need to get so defensive...

Very true.

 

[LaFlorecita]

My opinion. Contador, Froome and Quintana are all better than him in my opinion.

No need to get so defensive...

I agree with you FWIW

 

[Rollthedice]

Nibali has been as strong or stronger, and has ridden with more panache over this course.

He is a worthy winner, (if not the most worthy) and the only one remaining IMO.

Not yet the winner. He has to stay on his bike. This Tour is about the last man standing.

 

[VeloCity]

Nibali's clearly the strongest and in control so far, but the fact that the other two clear favorites, Froome and Contador, crashed out before the race really hits the mountains imo opens things up quite a bit. It's like a tree falling in the forest and the saplings in the undergrowth start competing for the sunlight - could be the only chance to steal yourself a TdF win before that gap in the canopy re-closes next year.

Not to say Nibali doesn't deserve the win - he certainly does. I just hope that all hell breaks loose and we see total chaos as "second-tier" guys launch attacks left, right, and center as opposed to a processional Astana ride to the finish.

 

[del1962]

If Nibali wins the tour (and it looks like he will), then it is fully deserved. You can't go on saying because A or B aren't here, I mean Eddie Mercxx in his prime isn't here either

I just hope for the tour someone will mount a challenge, for at the moment it seems like you could name all the eventual jersey holders (with the possible exception of the youth) with a great degree of confidence

 

[maxmartin]

If Nibali wins the tour (and it looks like he will), then it is fully deserved. You can't go on saying because A or B aren't here, I mean Eddie Mercxx in his prime isn't here either

I just hope for the tour someone will mount a challenge, for at the moment it seems like you could name all the eventual jersey holders (with the possible exception of the youth) with a great degree of confidence

fair enough, RP is not that far and sky has won the last two editions

 

[rhubroma]

It's just a shame that we don't get to see the spectacle of a super, in form Contador. He will be missed.

As much as I like and respect Nibali, I don't think he has the Spaniard's class. He was perfect on the cobbles, but no way is he as sharp in the high mountains or in ITTs. People that say the other day's three second loss was only due to bad gearing, really haven't come to terms with Contador simply having put the Italian in difficulty. Not by much, but it was a signal that from today on out Alberto would have been a spectacle to watch.

Well, in any case, this Tour was cursed from the moment Froome was out. And I say this only because everybody wanted to see the big battle between he and Alberto. With Nibali's form and the advantage he took on the cobbles, having all three in would have been just sensational.

 

[Futuroscope]

It's just a shame that we don't get to see the spectacle of a super, in form Contador. He will be missed.

As much as I like and respect Nibali, I don't think he has the Spaniard's class. He was perfect on the cobbles, but no way is he as sharp in the high mountains or in ITTs. People that say the other day's three second loss was only due to bad gearing, really haven't come to terms with Contador simply having put the Italian in difficulty. Not by much, but it was a signal that from today on out Alberto would have been a spectacle to watch.

Well, in any case, this Tour was cursed from the moment Froome was out. And I say this only because everybody wanted to see the big battle between he and Alberto. With Nibali's form and the advantage he took on the cobbles, having all three in would have been just sensational.

It's frustrating to read all this nonsense about Nibali would have won anyway. He would have been completely shelled by Froome and Contador. Their battle would have been epic. Now, I doubt it will ever happen. Froome will be back but I'm not so sure about Contador.

 

[cineteq]

Well, I don't think many people agree with that.

That's correct, the media over hyped the riders. Most people believe what they, the media, said. As independent observers, we see the reality.

 

[Rollthedice]

My opinion. Contador, Froome and Quintana are all better than him in my opinion.

No need to get so defensive...

True, if all are at their very best but things are not always like this. When Nibali podiumed the Giro and won Vuelta in 2010 Froome was hanging to motos and finishing 114 in Eneco Tour. Maybe this years Froome would have cracked as he did in Dauphine going straight to his Barloworld level. Who is to say it is not a possibility? Last years Contador would have been well beaten by last years Nibali. This year it might have been the other way around but we'll never know. As for Quintana I'm waiting for a grand tour to see them race against each other. Especially one with cobbles included and a long flat ITT. So, it is not so simple.

 

[Fight.The.Power]

Nibali's clearly the strongest and in control so far, but the fact that the other two clear favorites, Froome and Contador, crashed out before the race really hits the mountains imo opens things up quite a bit. It's like a tree falling in the forest and the saplings in the undergrowth start competing for the sunlight - could be the only chance to steal yourself a TdF win before that gap in the canopy re-closes next year.

Not to say Nibali doesn't deserve the win - he certainly does. I just hope that all hell breaks loose and we see total chaos as "second-tier" guys launch attacks left, right, and center as opposed to a processional Astana ride to the finish.

What a great analogy !

 

[rhubroma]

True, if all are at their very best but things are not always like this. When Nibali podiumed the Giro and won Vuelta in 2010 Froome was hanging to motos and finishing 114 in Eneco Tour. Maybe this years Froome would have cracked as he did in Dauphine going straight to his Barloworld level. Who is to say it is not a possibility? Last years Contador would have been well beaten by last years Nibali. This year it might have been the other way around but we'll never know. As for Quintana I'm waiting for a grand tour to see them race against each other. Especially one with cobbles included and a long flat ITT. So, it is not so simple.

I think the issue was over pure class, not these variables though.

At any rate, a top Contador in this race would have been one hell of a show to watch.

 

[maxmartin]

True, if all are at their very best but things are not always like this. When Nibali podiumed the Giro and won Vuelta in 2010 Froome was hanging to motos and finishing 114 in Eneco Tour. Maybe this years Froome would have cracked as he did in Dauphine going straight to his Barloworld level. Who is to say it is not a possibility? Last years Contador would have been well beaten by last years Nibali. This year it might have been the other way around but we'll never know. As for Quintana I'm waiting for a grand tour to see them race against each other. Especially one with cobbles included and a long flat ITT. So, it is not so simple.

great post.

 

[LaFlorecita]

That's correct, the media over hyped the riders. Most people believe what they, the media, said. As independent observers, we see the reality.

You're saying 99% of cycling fans aren't independent observers because they don't agree with you?

 

[LaFlorecita]

Nibali's clearly the strongest and in control so far, but the fact that the other two clear favorites, Froome and Contador, crashed out before the race really hits the mountains imo opens things up quite a bit. It's like a tree falling in the forest and the saplings in the undergrowth start competing for the sunlight - could be the only chance to steal yourself a TdF win before that gap in the canopy re-closes next year.

Not to say Nibali doesn't deserve the win - he certainly does. I just hope that all hell breaks loose and we see total chaos as "second-tier" guys launch attacks left, right, and center as opposed to a processional Astana ride to the finish.

Great post! Sums up my feelings quite well

 

[Fight.The.Power]

True, if all are at their very best but things are not always like this. When Nibali podiumed the Giro and won Vuelta in 2010 Froome was hanging to motos and finishing 114 in Eneco Tour. Maybe this years Froome would have cracked as he did in Dauphine going straight to his Barloworld level. Who is to say it is not a possibility? Last years Contador would have been well beaten by last years Nibali. This year it might have been the other way around but we'll never know. As for Quintana I'm waiting for a grand tour to see them race against each other. Especially one with cobbles included and a long flat ITT. So, it is not so simple.

Agreed

Must admit I am not convinced by Quintana so far.

Would have loved to see how he would have done on the cobbles. He could have been a Trojan - he could have folded.

As you say we'll never know.

But what a fantastic sport we love when you really have no idea what the next day will throw at you !