I have had a feeling that Contador wasn't as fighting fit most of us assumed from Paris Nice onwards. I do think, between him and Andy, Contador is the far better rider if they are both swinging their best legs.
I also thought Contador's riding style in the Tour showed distinct traits of an overly nervous rider. Either because he felt that AS could make his life very hard, or because he feared AS could make his life very hard. Nervousness saps energy. At the end of the ITT he looked like he had been put through the wringer and then some. Whatever it was, the TdF wasn't just a physical race for Alberto.
I know he is head strong and determined when when he feels strong and there are obvious factors conspiring against him. Bits of the jigsaw that ought to support him but are trying to get to him instead. Last year's news.
I don't know Contador well enough to know how he reacts to mental setbacks when he might feel he should be in control and have it sown up, but discovers he hasn't. This year.
Does he look for explanations? And does he look at himself first, or does he try to find things that got in the way of "perfect prep" around him? Most people find the last route very tempting.
None of the things listed so far sound like genuine problems, mild annoyances at best. And if that Astana car was telling him Andy was cycling him out of a jersey, that wasn't stretching the truth more than a few seconds tops, wasn't it?
Something is playing in his head that we aren't seeing, I think. I find no other way to explain the change of heart he appears to have had, all in a few weeks that ended well.
It does look like somehow he has made a turn-around during the Tour, as all signs were that the Astana signature was almost a formality that could only have been swept off the table if the Astana sucked during the Tour or Vino did an Armstrong. Which didn't happen, far from it.
Riis and Specialized will only have been able to persuade Contador if he was open to the suggestion in the first place. If he was not settled. Or unsettled.
I'm wondering if we had two actual winners this Tour. One on the road, with Maillot Jaune number three. And one off the road, Schleck, with the head battle. Maybe Contador won but felt beaten.
Not sure if Schleck won it, or Contador lost that second one, if that's indeed the case.
But we do have that Italian poster who reported that there were words spoken at the end of that stage where Vino drove off into the far distance and broke the back of a chasing Team Saxo (a strategy that was considered the best Astana could do to support Alberto that stage by many here). An event that several found hard to place, maybe even ignored because of that.
Maybe Andy, or maybe Alberto's own head, but something seems to have got through to him in the end - helped by nerves, tiredness, form, whatever - and maybe good judgement did leave that day after all, and there was a tense exchange (uncalled or, if true).
And maybe that is indeed where he became open to a change of team for 2011. Maybe his head was starting to find external problems to explain his own "less expected but very real" struggle to himself. Que Riis and Specialised. Maybe Riis appeared, to weary ears, to be the magic genie that could take away the annoyances that Contador experienced. Irritations that found their way into his head more and more during the Tour (rightly or wrongly).
I only need to look at my own life to know that tiredness, stress and doubt can add up to a different reading of good things immediately around you, then you would arrive at in retrospect, or after a good night's rest. And some actions that you take as a consequence aren't always bad, but are possibly very different than what you would have done if it hadn't all come together on the 3rd week of July. An ideal moment for something fairly meaningless to become a big player, let's say some ill-timed words by an Astana official, suggesting he needed a decision quickly. And maybe triggered one.
Technically, this year, the best rider we have was well supported, and in charge and control (could race and prep how he wanted, could reschedule, had good equipment, and had motivated folk riding for him). Yet he had a much tougher time on the road than you would conclude at the end of that list. He looked a wreck after 50k on Saturday afternoon, chasing someone who he should ride away from.
I think this Tour has taken more out of him than he bargained for. Andy deserves some credit for that, but I still speculate that it is more what Contador brought to the starting line himself that was a bigger hindrance than anything Andy threw at him.
Maybe moving away from Astana is Contador's way of silencing his internal voice, making sense of it all without looking closely at how he handled it himself. Rightly or wrongly.
To me it is a sign that he did actually crack during this Tour, but was still too good to lose it.
If so, he will be the same bundle of nerves next year, as it would have been more in his head than actually around him. Excuses more than reasons.
Unless the Riis' survival camp manages to change Contador's frame of mind before they hit the start line, or something shuts that little guy on his shoulder up.