Contador out of TDF?

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

Menchov top 5 ed both in 2008 and it could be argued that Contador is sufficiently better than Menchov that the same effort gets him 1st in both. Also while Menchov usualy takes a while to peak and does little outside gts contador is known to hold form for long periods of time. Hes on form whenever he feels like it pretty much.

The course is hard but then maybe Evans really was on his way to a very good Tour when he crashed. Stephen Roche spent the whole Tour up to that point saying that Evans had chosen the correct path to recover almost fully from the Giro by the TDF - The same path Roche had chosen. Apparently its to lock yourself away at Altitude, do not even touch a bike, forget about cycling, dont do any of the warmup races, then start cycling like a week before, go to the tour and hope to peak for the 3rd week.

Its not like Contador should lose too much time in the first week if hes not on form. He can afford to rest for 3 of the 4 weeks after the Giro and be weak for the next 3 weeks, meaning a 6 week gap between peaks.

Menchov was not full out at the giro in 08. He didn't soft pedal, but he certaiinly didn't go all out, and this giro is... And the fields at the tour in 06-08 were meh. Transition years between LA and AC really (even tho ac won 07, competition was meh). Menchov went all out in 09 and was a big flop at the tour. Same as Basso. Both had ambitions in France.
The giro can actually be good preparation, but when ridden hard it is very very difficult to re-coup. With riders putting so much training and specific peaking towards particulr GTs, doing the double, especially the giro (I think tour-vuelta is possible under the right circumstances) is near impossible, AC is no exception imo.

And the tour flat stages are not easy, he may not lose time, but it wont be rest. It screws your prep up also, as riding and training between the races is difficult. People dont give the tour credit. Le tour is ridden at a much tougher pace. This is because (wheter we like it or not) it is the most important race for so many teams, and they take no risks. They ride it hard. The Giro, in terms of racing and entertainment actually benefits from the Tour's status. Both races will be very hard, the giro especially, sorry but if AC does the double, I will only have clinic thoughts, this coming from a poster who prefers to avoid such talk and accuisations.

Quote from contador himself:

“The difference between the Tour and the other Grand Tours is that the mountains are being climbed at an extremely high speed and the flat days absolutely wear you out, while in the Giro they're a little more bearable.”

 

[Trevor FCR]

Personally. I think that AC says things like "I'm only focusing on the Giro (right now)," and doesn't necessarily commit to TDF, because if he doesn't live up to expectations, i.e., win the Giro and TDF, then he can always play it down, like he wasn't fully committed to the TDF and that's why he didn't win (assuming he is legit to ride and enters). It's also a psychological tactic, making people think he's just not that interested, out of form, "soft-pedaling," or possibly not participating. That's part of messing with your adversaries mental preparation/training. I think AC is a lot smarter than people give him credit for, and I hope he is cleared to ride and pulls the rug out from under the competition in both the Giro and TDF! That would just be amazing for the sport!

 

[boomcie]

I'm in. The hilarity of having the forum taken over by Rebellin would make up somewhat for the mockery of the sport that would represent.

So if Contador is riding the Tour you'll take a Rebellin avatar for a month. Do I understand this correctly?

Or is it the other way around?

 

[Sasquatch]

If Contador wins the giro and he rides the Tour and doesn't do the double, I will have a Cadel avatar for a year on what ACF decides on.

So that will only apply on the two following terms. Not one or another. Both have to happen for my bet to stand.

1. He wins the Giro
2. He starts the Tour.

 

[leftover pie]

If Contador wins the giro and he rides the Tour and doesn't do the double, I will have a Cadel avatar for a year on what ACF decides on.

So that will only apply on the two following terms. Not one or another. Both have to happen for my bet to stand.

1. He wins the Giro
2. He starts the Tour.

that's a mighty big gauntlet you've just thrown down!

 

[JPM London]

I'll put a Rebellin avatar on for 2 weeks if he doesn't ride the Tour

My take: If he does it big time - take parts in and wins both - then I'll do a (water)pistol avatar for a full year. It'd be so massive a feat that I'm happy to have a slightly foolish avatar for a looong time.

That'll give me a couple of months with a more normal avatar before I have to change it again to something even more silly when he takes the treble next year...

 

[boomcie]

My take: If he does it big time - take parts in and wins both - then I'll do a (water)pistol avatar for a full year. It'd be so massive a feat that I'm happy to have a slightly foolish avatar for a looong time.

That'll give me a couple of months with a more normal avatar before I have to change it again to something even more silly when he takes the treble next year...

So if he wins the Tour you'll have a water pistol avatar for a full year? Or do you mean if he wins the double Giro-Tour??

 

[El Pistolero]

He'll have a waterpistol in his avatar, but one that is carried by El Pistolero him self(sure there are some photos around from that as he had one last year in the TDF)

 

[boomcie]

He'll have a waterpistol in his avatar, but one that is carried by El Pistolero him self(sure there are some photos around from that as he had one last year in the TDF)

Won't make the greatest avatar:

 

[El Pistolero]

Won't make the greatest avatar:

Think it's pretty good, just crop the picture a little bit more so you don't see so much of the road.

 

[boomcie]

Think it's pretty good, just crop the picture a little bit more so you don't see so much of the road.

At your service. Still not fully satisfied, but I'm guessing you're ecstatic

 

[El Pistolero]

At your service. Still not fully satisfied, but I'm guessing you're ecstatic

Yeah, for those that hate Contador or feel impartial to him that avatar will do just fine

 

[JPM London]

Ok, that did it - have done it already in the anticipation that he does indeed do the double... And, yes, I did mean the double earlier - sorry if I was a bit vague...

If he does do it, I'll keep it up until next year's vuelta in anticipation of a treble, if he doesn't do the double I'll pull it down after this year's Tour and replace it with a picture of that guy from Monty Python with the handkerchief on his head who's missing pieces of his brain...

Fitting?

EDIT:
Now back on topic - myself included!