Coronavirus: How dangerous a threat?

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More people died yesterday in the USA than died during the whole pandemic in Japan. That blew my mind. It looks like we are about to hit our post holiday peak at 131K hospitalizations, so the numbers should start to improve.
Yeh, 4,447 deaths recorded in America on January 12. Japan has lost 4,147 since this all started.

I posted a while ago it seemed cases were rising but not deaths. Merckx corrected me that deaths inevitably follow new cases. Now we see the tragic outcome. I really hope the positive effect of the vaccine starts to become evident in these painful statistics soon.

I would also like to add this thread has been a valuable resource to me. Kudos to the OP and regular contributors here, including yourself. It can be difficult to sift through all the news in the media to get facts and perspective. This place provides a good source even though the "P" word can bog it down sometimes although that is probably inevitable.
 
Yeh, 4,447 deaths recorded in America on January 12. Japan has lost 4,147 since this all started.

I posted a while ago it seemed cases were rising but not deaths. Merckx corrected me that deaths inevitably follow new cases. Now we see the tragic outcome. I really hope the positive effect of the vaccine starts to become evident in these painful statistics soon.

I would also like to add this thread has been a valuable resource to me. Kudos to the OP and regular contributors here, including yourself. It can be difficult to sift through all the news in the media to get facts and perspective. This place provides a good source even though the "P" word can bog it down sometimes although that is probably inevitable.
Unfortunately I'm not sure there will be enough vaccine to really start seeing improvements (in the US) until the end of March or early April. With the news that the J&J vaccine isn't going to have as much as hoped to begin with either that means even with hopefully more approved (EUA) vaccines there still won't be a lot of it. Hoping the numbers are decent when we get those hopefully in the near future.
 
AFAIK there are no current studies - BUT when Britain has been in forms of lockdown since November and they just reached their peak number of infections after nearly 2 months it indicates the new strain is extremely infectious.
Thanks for the reply. Yes, that sounds like the most plausible explanation. Still media and politicans already talked about it being 56 or 70% more infectious before chrismas, that always sounded a bit strange to me because of the lack of data.
Things are going better than expected in Italy with vaccinations atm, 1.4% of the total population (that's just over 850k) already vaccinated with the first dose, let's hope that they don't mess up and end up sending a different vaccine for the 2nd dose...
One thing that is interesting is that with the ongoing restrictions the seasonal flu is pretty much nonexistant in Europe.
 
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Chris Gadsden

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I don't know the numbers you are using here are correct.
I don't either. It's from the LA Times, so.....

https://www.latimes.com/projects/california-coronavirus-cases-tracking-outbreak/

The political party of the state Governor doesn't look to important for deaths,hospitalization and they overall strategy if that's your point.
Sure it does. Here's an example. Cali's Politically Correct order of vaccination tiers. The incarcerated and homeless are in the same Tier as those 65+ and will be vaccinated before individuals 50-64 years of age and workers in Water and Wastewater, Defense, Energy, Chemical and Hazardous Material, Communication/IT, Financial Services, Government Operations.

If you think there's no politics here then I don't know what to tell you.

So most people, look at a 30ft tall metal fence
And understand CLEARLY that there is more going on in the world than Covid. Walking and chewing gum. Some people can apparently you can't.
 
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I know 2 people who have now gotten their first vaccine shot. In both cases they have received the Moderna vaccine. One got hers today and has had no side effects at all. The other got hers last week on Friday. She did have sore arm for about a day. However, she also said that she almost always has a sore arm for several hours after any vaccine.
 
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Chris Gadsden

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This is the sort of generalization that discredits any good, credible points you make. Is Blue the code for "bad"?
I would say when Cuomo puts out stupidity that makes DiBlasio's criticism make perfect sense then there might be a leadership problem.

Best States for Covid distribution so far:

  1. N Dakota 73.76% of allotted vaccine in arms.
  2. W Virginia 64.19%
  3. Connecticut 60.37%
  4. S Dakota 58.32%
  5. Montana 53.71%
  6. Tennessee 51.72
  7. Rhode Island 49.32%
  8. Iowa 47.25%
  9. Texas 46.76%
  10. New Mexico 44.18%

26. New York 35.73%

44. California 24.84%

Here's North Dakota's Plan;

a. Phase 1-A: Health care workers and long-term care residents
b. Phase 1-B: Persons 75 and older and frontline essential workers
c. Phase 1-C: Persons age 65-74, persons ages 16-64 with high-risk medical conditions, and other essential workers

Pretty straight forward.
 

Chris Gadsden

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I know 2 people who have now gotten their first vaccine shot. In both cases they have received the Moderna vaccine. One got hers today and has had no side effects at all. The other got hers last week on Friday. She did have sore arm for about a day. However, she also said that she almost always has a sore arm for several hours after any vaccine.
I have a few close friends who work in hospitals (PA & 2 nurses). All three have had their second shot. All three had no side effects from the first besides soreness at the injection site. Of the three, all have had more severe side effects to the second dose. 2 had chills, body aches and felt like crap for about 24 hours and then were fine. The 3rd one was a little sicker but was over it in about 36 hours.
 
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Sure it does. Here's an example. Cali's Politically Correct order of vaccination tiers. The incarcerated and homeless are in the same Tier as those 65+ and will be vaccinated before individuals 50-64 years of age and workers in Water and Wastewater, Defense, Energy, Chemical and Hazardous Material, Communication/IT, Financial Services, Government Operations.

If you think there's no politics here then I don't know what to tell you.



And understand CLEARLY that there is more going on in the world than Covid. Walking and chewing gum. Some people can apparently you can't.
65+ have been moved up a tier since the feds changed the guidelines*. I would bump up 50+ with risk factors into this group, but other than that I think the CA tiers are pretty standard. Congregate living is a big risk factor for disease spread, so most states are going to vaccinate the homeless and prisoners pretty early. They are next up in MD. It may not seem fair, but staff also get it in addition to inmates. MD estimates 54k in that group, so should not be that big a deal.

*I looked it up because I saw someone on Twitter talking about signing up their dad in CA.
 
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Thanks for the reply. Yes, that sounds like the most plausible explanation. Still media and politicans already talked about it being 56 or 70% more infectious before chrismas, that always sounded a bit strange to me because of the lack of data.
Things are going better than expected in Italy with vaccinations atm, 1.4% of the total population (that's just over 850k) already vaccinated with the first dose, let's hope that they don't mess up and end up sending a different vaccine for the 2nd dose...
One thing that is interesting is that with the ongoing restrictions the seasonal flu is pretty much nonexistant in Europe.
Seasonal flu is low everywhere as far as I can tell.

The person I always go to about viral evolution is Trevor Bedford. Really smart guy that can communicate to laypeople. He claims to be working on a new summary about these strains, but his last update is worth looking over. It is pretty certain that it is more transmissable, but there is just not enough quality data to give a precise answer on how much more. It could be 50%, but it could be 20%. I agree with Yaco that it is likely contributing to the worsening outbreak in the UK. Fortunately it is still low here based on surveillance sequencing.

View: https://mobile.twitter.com/trvrb/status/1344031146808647683
 
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This will probably not be a popular take, but we really should voluntarily restrict our travel as much as humanly possible for the next 3 months. The slow race to vaccinate alongside the emergence of the variant really changes the calculus. We can't stop it from spreading where it already is, but we should try to stop it from forming new infection foci around the country. Doubling every week will really, really hurt before long. The first case was identified in my county from a couple, one who had traveled to multiple countries overseas recently.

View: https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1349732572763328513
 
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"19% or 95%? US expert challenges Pfizer vaccine's efficacy, triggers debates in China."


"Questions raised by Peter Doshi, an assistant professor of pharmaceutical health services research at the University of Maryland School of Pharmacy, have triggered heated discussion on Chinese social media."

"Doshi on January 4 released an article on a blog platform under the UK pharmaceutical journal The BMJ, questioning Pfizer's efficacy rate."


"Pfizer revealed that it discovered 170 PCR confirmed COVID-19 cases during the phase III clinical trials and 3,410 suspected cases in total."

"However, if taking these suspected cases all as confirmed ones, the Pfizer vaccine's efficacy would be dramatically reduced to 19 percent. Even after omitting cases occurring within seven days of vaccination, which should include the majority of symptoms due to short-term vaccine reactogenicity, the efficacy rate remains as low as 29 percent, Doshi said in the article."

"Doshi also questioned the standards of how Pfizer excluded cases and the influence of the use of medication on the vaccine's efficacy."
 
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This will probably not be a popular take, but we really should voluntarily restrict our travel as much as humanly possible for the next 3 months. The slow race to vaccinate alongside the emergence of the variant really changes the calculus. We can't stop it from spreading where it already is, but we should try to stop it from forming new infection foci around the country. Doubling every week will really, really hurt before long. The first case was identified in my county from a couple, one who had traveled to multiple countries overseas recently.
yeah, I think many people (probably including politicians) fail to understand the risk, or are mislead by the early statements that it's "more contagious, but no more lethal". This illustration below is very basic of course, but shows quite well that this actually means that the potential outcome in the end is far worse

View: https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1348742487846875138/
 
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According to this article Dollar General is going to pay their employees to get the Covid vaccine. I suspect more companies will take this approach.

It says hourly team members receive four (4) hours of regular pay for accepting the vaccine. Only four hours of pay? I thought it would be something good like month or two worth of pay. Afterall, Dollar General is a billion dollar operation.
 
yeah, I think many people (probably including politicians) fail to understand the risk, or are mislead by the early statements that it's "more contagious, but no more lethal". This illustration below is very basic of course, but shows quite well that this actually means that the potential outcome in the end is far worse

View: https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1348742487846875138/
I totally agree that the mortality issue is lulling some people to sleep. That and the hope of vaccinations making the end seem closer than it is. Any place with an R around 1 is really sensitive to a variant that bumps up that number even slightly. I don't like the trends that I am seeing in countries where the variant has firmly established itself.

I saw this today and wow..... Maybe the most ignorant pandemic comment made so far, which is saying something.
"If a novel virus like this emerged in a Democratic nation, this epidemic would have never happened," says Alex Azar.
We were given advance warning and the sequence of the virus and still couldn't do much but roll over. How in the world can anybody honestly claim that we could've stopped this in its tracks. Just delusional thinking. Azar is in Fantasy land.

In my mind, I am just envisioning the scenario of a team labcoats talking to somebody in charge.

"Sir.... we just found this novel virus.... It has killed dozens in the Carolinas. But the good news is that we may be able to stop it by banning all interstate travel, closing all restaurants and bars, and ordering people to stay in their homes for the duration of the emergency. We probably need to do this for the whole United States due to the ubiquity of domestic travel. When do we tell the nation?"

I hope we can do a true accounting of what happened. It starts by accepting reality.
 
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