Coronavirus: How dangerous a threat?

Page 269 - Get up to date with the latest news, scores & standings from the Cycling News Community.
It would be useful to know how many of the newly infected are in the fully vaccinated group. The inactivated vaccine likely does not have the same efficacy as the Pfizer vaccine, so comparisons to Israel are a little misleading. Worth pointing out that neither of their main vaccines use the double mutant spike that seems to generate the best immune response. If the Sinovac has 60% efficacy, you would need to get nearly everyone vaccinated to hit herd immunity. What their outbreak shows is that they are not there yet.
 
After seeing the success of the covid cycling seasons on the one hand I could say yes, they could run it, but - on the other hand there are so many more people and variables, and - because Japan gvt, which I don't trust! For sure I don't like the idea of them taking so many medical staff away from where they're currently needed - state of emergency likely to be extended.... I know many countries are vexing their athletes which is great. I just can't see how it can be done without people testing positive and possibly spreading it. For sure while numbers are high (high for Japan) it's not a popular idea.
 
Reactions: jmdirt
It would be useful to know how many of the newly infected are in the fully vaccinated group. The inactivated vaccine likely does not have the same efficacy as the Pfizer vaccine, so comparisons to Israel are a little misleading. Worth pointing out that neither of their main vaccines use the double mutant spike that seems to generate the best immune response. If the Sinovac has 60% efficacy, you would need to get nearly everyone vaccinated to hit herd immunity. What their outbreak shows is that they are not there yet.
Think it's also important to hold off for longer to see how many are symptomatic and in hospital - That's the key driver.

Edit; Do the Seychelles only travel for people who have been vaccinated ?
 
Last edited:
Reactions: Keram and jmdirt
Think it's also important to hold off for longer to see how many are symptomatic and in hospital - That's the key driver.
Good point. Their vaccine was more capable at preventing serious illness than mild illness, which is what a vaccine typically does.

This thread suggests that most infected (~2/3) were from the partially vaccinated or not vaccinated pool.

View: https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1389955259410354177


There is a new longform medium post from a retired NYT science writer that tries to pin the pandemic on Lab escape. I think he gets a lot of things wrong, but this part made me laugh and is fitting for a cycling board.
Or that the funding of gain-of-function research by the NIH and NIAID during a moratorium on such research would bear investigation. What accounts for the media’s apparent lack of curiosity?

The virologists’ omertà is one reason. Science reporters, unlike political reporters, have little innate skepticism of their sources’ motives; most see their role largely as purveying the wisdom of scientists to the unwashed masses. So when their sources won’t help, these journalists are at a loss.
Big boomer energy alert.....
But virologists in the United States and Europe have no great interest in igniting a public debate about the gain-of-function experiments that their community has been pursuing for years.

Nor have other scientists stepped forward to raise the issue. Government research funds are distributed on the advice of committees of scientific experts drawn from universities. Anyone who rocks the boat by raising awkward political issues runs the risk that their grant will not be renewed and their research career will be ended.
Somebody who definitely does not know how study section at the NIH works but will rely on his audience also having no clue.
 
Good point. Their vaccine was more capable at preventing serious illness than mild illness, which is what a vaccine typically does.

This thread suggests that most infected (~2/3) were from the partially vaccinated or not vaccinated pool.

View: https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1389955259410354177


There is a new longform medium post from a retired NYT science writer that tries to pin the pandemic on Lab escape. I think he gets a lot of things wrong, but this part made me laugh and is fitting for a cycling board.
Big boomer energy alert.....
Somebody who definitely does not know how study section at the NIH works but will rely on his audience also having no clue.
Last week I pointed out the same false argument is used with climate science, but less so now since more and more funding is coming from the polluters.

-1000s of color experts point to a pink car and agree that its pink.
-an HVAC tech. and a homeless guy say that it could be black.
-those who don't want it to be pink point the the 'disagreement among experts'.
-when asked why 1000s of experts agree that its pink, those who don't want it to be pink accuse them of not wanting to rock the boat and risk their funding.
 
Reactions: djpbaltimore
Also, if it is not clear, almost nobody does gain of function research for a variety of reasons. If it was banned, almost no one would care. A lot of scientists have opinions about covid origins. But it is not like we have access to any of the primary data, so not much to speak up about.

As vaccination rates dip, Tucker went full antivax tonight claiming that thousands of people have died from the vaccine, using dodgy vaers data.

View: https://mobile.twitter.com/Neoavatara/status/1390114481313832963
 
Reactions: jmdirt
I thought these were interesting numbers about the concerns that people who have not gotten the vaccine are worried about. We can roll our eyes that people are more worried about getting vaccine induced side effects versus getting covid all we want, but these are going to be hard people to convince. The other number that pops out at me is that of the people who are in the definitely not getting it camp, 2/3 say that they are concerned about their future fertility. This shows why antivaxxers hit this topic hard. It solidifies people's opinions despite being wholly made up.

View: https://twitter.com/lizhamel/status/1390307505754951682
 
Crazy vaccination developments in Germany, I can't write them all down, neither can I make all connections. Partly because my English is too bad, partly because I don't understand them fully.
Okay, here we go anyway:

About 30% are vaccinated for the first time. Mostly people older than 70, and groups like teachers, doctors, nurses, and many others which are considered important. In some areas priority 2 is due, in others it's already priority 3.

There is still huge demand for vaccinations, but people mostly want BionTech/Pfizer, while AZ has a very bad reputation and some people don't want it. (Those are the two vaccines we have most of.)

We have a "Stiko" (Vaccination committee) which decided who belongs into which group. They also recommended AZ only for people under 60 first (because of lack of data for elder ones), then only for people over 60 because of the sinus thromboses... So people are now sceptical.

Since yesterday "everyone who wants to" can get vaccinated with AZ, even the younger ones, at their own peril. In theory. In reality of course many more people want it than there are doses, despite the scepticism of some. Well, at some doctors you can now make appointments for AZ vaccinations without being priority, it's basically a lottery, some doctors will give you an appointment for the next day, some say they aren't vaccinating at all before the end of may, many give appointments for end of May or June. If you don't have a GP usually forget it.

We are still in a semi-lockdown. Shops aren't open like normal, you often have to make appointments, have to show a negative test... all depending on... I don't know what, incidence numbers, area... You can only meet with one person.

Now all of this, including all quarantine rules and testing don't apply anymore, if you are fully vaccinated! (due to constitution law or its interpretation)

So people want to get vaccinated! Twice. As soon as possible.

But there's still not enough stuff, and if you get AZ you will have to wait 3 month from now on to be fully vaccinated anyway.

So, "clever" move from our health minister: Shorten the interval to 4 weeks! Yes, the effect of AZ is way better if you wait 3 months, but people are getting twitchy, because they want to go on a summer holiday and stuff (and maybe even see two friends at a time) and they can't without getting fully vaccinated...
((Yes, there are elections in September...))

So, I'm summarizing: Instead of just relaxing restrictions for everybody as soon as possible, we are giving rights back to certain people and in order to make many people get these rights soon we are shortening the intervall which devalues the vaccination?

Have they all gone crazy?
 
Blue Roads, I wish you all could get more Pfizer, or get Moderna, or get Novavax approved.

Interesting note of a personal experience this week. On Wednesday I had to take my husband to the hospital (UNC) for a biopsy (hopefully we get some answers). When we went in, no Covid screening, not questions, no asking if I have been vaccinated, nothing. (He had a Covid test Monday, but that was just for the doctors and nurses to know if he had Covid or not for their prep for the biopsy. He tested negative. I was a little surprised.
 
Funny Blue Roads coming up for an unneeded apology for English skills..My German is\was so bad that I could not get off the Quelle email list!! For years..I got an ADAC vacation catalogue because I could not figure out how not to!!
I have some funny German health care system stories..one from a racing accident,were all the German medical team, admitted me,treated me,and discharged me from care using an account code something to the effect of other. One person explained that it's a code that they use for Americans because our health insurance system was so complicated,confusing that trying to get reimbursement was futile.
I was told once in German..even a penner in the street has basic coverage..it took @5 minutes,half a beer for my bunch to explain what a penner is..
I don't know if Pils or Weisse beer can save any of us from the pandemic but I am betting on it..
 
Crazy vaccination developments in Germany, I can't write them all down, neither can I make all connections. Partly because my English is too bad, partly because I don't understand them fully.
Okay, here we go anyway:

About 30% are vaccinated for the first time. Mostly people older than 70, and groups like teachers, doctors, nurses, and many others which are considered important. In some areas priority 2 is due, in others it's already priority 3.

There is still huge demand for vaccinations, but people mostly want BionTech/Pfizer, while AZ has a very bad reputation and some people don't want it. (Those are the two vaccines we have most of.)

We have a "Stiko" (Vaccination committee) which decided who belongs into which group. They also recommended AZ only for people under 60 first (because of lack of data for elder ones), then only for people over 60 because of the sinus thromboses... So people are now sceptical.

Since yesterday "everyone who wants to" can get vaccinated with AZ, even the younger ones, at their own peril. In theory. In reality of course many more people want it than there are doses, despite the scepticism of some. Well, at some doctors you can now make appointments for AZ vaccinations without being priority, it's basically a lottery, some doctors will give you an appointment for the next day, some say they aren't vaccinating at all before the end of may, many give appointments for end of May or June. If you don't have a GP usually forget it.

We are still in a semi-lockdown. Shops aren't open like normal, you often have to make appointments, have to show a negative test... all depending on... I don't know what, incidence numbers, area... You can only meet with one person.

Now all of this, including all quarantine rules and testing don't apply anymore, if you are fully vaccinated! (due to constitution law or its interpretation)

So people want to get vaccinated! Twice. As soon as possible.

But there's still not enough stuff, and if you get AZ you will have to wait 3 month from now on to be fully vaccinated anyway.

So, "clever" move from our health minister: Shorten the interval to 4 weeks! Yes, the effect of AZ is way better if you wait 3 months, but people are getting twitchy, because they want to go on a summer holiday and stuff (and maybe even see two friends at a time) and they can't without getting fully vaccinated...
((Yes, there are elections in September...))

So, I'm summarizing: Instead of just relaxing restrictions for everybody as soon as possible, we are giving rights back to certain people and in order to make many people get these rights soon we are shortening the intervall which devalues the vaccination?

Have they all gone crazy?
The vaccination campaign in Germany is a total disaster. You have coverage rates as low as 55% for the age group 60+ in some states (source). Compare that to the 97% coverage rate of the 65+age group in Flanders which Jagartrott posted yesterday (even the more hesitating french speaking people in Belgium reach around 80% in this age group now).
In part this low coverage in Germany is due to a more complicated priority system. In Belgium they basically descend through the age groups, added the medical sector in the beginning and now slide in people with comorbidities before descending through the age groups again. In Germany you have also teachers which are prioritized. But then again why do they prioritize teachers? It is not that they are crowding the hospitals. They are not even more exposed to the virus than others! There is a Belgian study about that and in Belgium the schools were always open! In Germany they are most of the time closed.
Yesterday I read a story at the website of the second largest German news channel ZDF that parents should prioritized so that their children can go to school / kindergarten. I mean that are the people with the most robust immune system, both children and parents. And pupils are not more exposed to the virus anyway, according to a study in Belgium where schools were always open.
I think there is a bad miscommunication in Germany. In Belgium it is basically: The old and vulnerable people should be vaccinated so that the young people (and of course the old people too) can be free again. Relaxation of rules is even connected to coverage rates of vulnerable groups. In Germany it is basically. You should be vaccinated so that you can be free again. Maybe this approach works better to motivate the people in Germany which seems to hesitate a lot to get vaccinated. But I hate it so much!
 
The vaccination campaign in Germany is a total disaster. You have coverage rates as low as 55% for the age group 60+ in some states (source). Compare that to the 97% coverage rate of the 65+age group in Flanders which Jagartrott posted yesterday (even the more hesitating french speaking people in Belgium reach around 80% in this age group now).
In part this low coverage in Germany is due to a more complicated priority system. In Belgium they basically descend through the age groups, added the medical sector in the beginning and now slide in people with comorbidities before descending through the age groups again. In Germany you have also teachers which are prioritized. But then again why do they prioritize teachers? It is not that they are crowding the hospitals. They are not even more exposed to the virus than others! There is a Belgian study about that and in Belgium the schools were always open! In Germany they are most of the time closed.
Yesterday I read a story at the website of the second largest German news channel ZDF that parents should prioritized so that their children can go to school / kindergarten. I mean that are the people with the most robust immune system, both children and parents. And pupils are not more exposed to the virus anyway, according to a study in Belgium where schools were always open.
I think there is a bad miscommunication in Germany. In Belgium it is basically: The old and vulnerable people should be vaccinated so that the young people (and of course the old people too) can be free again. Relaxation of rules is even connected to coverage rates of vulnerable groups. In Germany it is basically. You should be vaccinated so that you can be free again. Maybe this approach works better to motivate the people in Germany which seems to hesitate a lot to get vaccinated. But I hate it so much!
I hate it, too, mostly because of my son.
But I don't think it's about vaccination hesitancy so much. There have been a few short-term extra-appointments for people at some places when they thought they had too much AZ, and those doses where gone immediately. I am on a waiting list for an appointment now, because I have some kind of priority, okay, could take longer because that will probably be BTPf, but really it's not like we have many doses surplus of any vaccine...
I suppose one main reason for our approach is that after the first weeks there wasn't much talk of "protect the vulnerable" anymore. Instead it has been emphasized that this is not just concerning the elderly, but everyone is at risk, especially with the mutants, whose consequences we don't know yet... there has been a lot of talk of long-covid affecting young people...
Maybe that's even true. I don't know. I don't know any numbers about long-covid and other effects, but this was the feeling that drove everything, I suppose.
Also the doctors from the ICUs who are very present in the media are always warning, but they don't say "protect the vulnerable so we don't get so many of them here", they say "you need to get the numbers down, we are seeing more and more young people here". I don't know what "young people" really means, I think they mean people 50-60, not 15-30, but since you get a lot of anecdotes and stories, but no reliable, objective numbers which you can compare, I just don't know.
 
Thanks for the correction with vaccination hesitancy.
Covid is also bad for young people and it is important to tell this in media and television. Saying you need to get the numbers down seems very reasonable too.
However, the chance that you have complications is much larger for older people. In Belgium they also report the age groups of people which come to hospital with covid. The share of people between 20-40 years is rather stable around 10%. The share of people over 80 years is falling all the time through vaccination. It was about 40% in January and is around 15% at end of April. Since one share is going down, another has to increase and this is the case for the age group between 40-60. Probably because this is the oldest age group which does not benefit from vaccination yet. There is basically no one under 20 in hospital. There is no data for age group in intensive care.
 

ASK THE COMMUNITY

TRENDING THREADS