Coronavirus: How dangerous a threat?

[Cookster15]

An epidemiologist says Australia should focus on hospitalisations, not cases. Cases are exploding with omicron but hospitalisations are not.

Australia leads world in grim Covid stat

Australia has experienced the biggest rise in daily average cases compared with its previous peak out of any country in the world, according to The New York Times.

www.news.com.au

 

[Ultrairon]

Those numbers don't dispute my claim. Unless you have better stats, Australia has about 3/4 with 2 vaccine doses. Maryland has about 70%. Ask me what delta and omicron are capable of it you let restrictions go. We now have more people in the hospital than at any time of this pandemic. It might not be evident during your summer, but if you think the pandemic is over...


So, the 1600+ people in hospital were not infected with Delta? And they represent the proverbial tip of the iceberg. Your country has performed better than most, but I think a false sense of security may be setting in.

Are you talking about Maryland alone or the USA? Because the stats for hospitalizations do not agree.
according to this data Jan 2021 was the most in the hospital for Maryland.

Weekly Hospitalization Trends - Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center

This chart displays the 7-day trend in overall and Covid-19-specific hospitalization occupancy data to help understand changes in capacity and level of stress on hospitals.

coronavirus.jhu.edu

Same for the USA as a whole.

Weekly Hospitalization Trends - Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center

This chart displays the 7-day trend in overall and Covid-19-specific hospitalization occupancy data to help understand changes in capacity and level of stress on hospitals.

coronavirus.jhu.edu

 

[Ultrairon]

It is hard to tell what is real these days with all the fake stories posted up. I read this and thought it was interesting.

Japan's low COVID-19 death rate may be due to genetics, top research institute says

Most Japanese have an inherited component of the immune system that can more effectively kill various coronaviruses, including the one that causes COVID-19, scientists say.

www.japantimes.co.jp

 

[Cookster15]

It's politics and economics. The goverment health officers are fading into the background not to mention the epidemiologists and researchers. The government has made their decision on Omni based on a drop with deaths and severe illness but that is still stretching the health system, probably with mainly unvaccinated patients due to the high infection rate. The Swedish approach to Covid is being adopted now it seems by many countries that previously used lockdowns quite often. Many people may not stay in hospital for long but they are still going to hospital and more and more hospitals are getting higher numbers of staff infected so its a vicious circle. Look what's happening in China, some cities have started implementing lockdowns again, strict lockdowns.

The Swedish approach is inevitable everywhere eventually. Vaccination plus the likely lower virulence of newer variants is why. Plus epidemiologists and researchers are not uniform in what they think will happen (for example refer the article I posted above). Fewer than 130 Australians are in ICU despite over 100,000 active cases.

NSW hospitalisations jump but infection rate steady

NSW has seen a 20 per cent jump in COVID-19-related cases in hospital, as the effective reproductive rate of the virus creeps up in Victoria.

www.afr.com

 

[Cookster15]

I doubt that China can be used as any type of reference point - When you consider their population of 1.3 billion

Allow me to be pedantic - China's population has passed 1.4 Billion. But yes, that's an awful lot of vaccine doses to be sourced, distributed and administered.

 

[Koronin]

The Swedish approach is inevitable everywhere eventually. Vaccination plus the likely lower virulence of newer variants is why. Plus epidemiologists and researchers are not uniform in what they think will happen (for example refer the article I posted above). Fewer than 130 Australians are in ICU despite over 100,000 active cases.

NSW hospitalisations jump but infection rate steady

NSW has seen a 20 per cent jump in COVID-19-related cases in hospital, as the effective reproductive rate of the virus creeps up in Victoria.

www.afr.com

I also agree. Eventually with the combination of the vaccines, treatments that work and less deadly variants the Swedish approach is likely going to happen in most places.

 

[movingtarget]

It is hard to tell what is real these days with all the fake stories posted up. I read this and thought it was interesting.

Japan's low COVID-19 death rate may be due to genetics, top research institute says

Most Japanese have an inherited component of the immune system that can more effectively kill various coronaviruses, including the one that causes COVID-19, scientists say.

www.japantimes.co.jp

I have also read about the opposite findings with some other cultures being more susceptible to severe illness with the virus re genetics. Then you also have some correlation between death rates and countries with high rates of obesity.

 

[dusty red roads]

It will be interesting to see what happens here in Japan in the next 3-6 weeks. Numbers have been extremely low since the summer wave passed, they're slowing rising. (Tokyo only hit above 70 the other day, and apparently none of those were Omicron, but probably some of the previous ones have been. It's mask city here as usual and Omicron is out in the wilds, so it's just a matter of time to see what happens.

 

[Ultrairon]

It will be interesting to see what happens here in Japan in the next 3-6 weeks. Numbers have been extremely low since the summer wave passed, they're slowing rising. (Tokyo only hit above 70 the other day, and apparently none of those were Omicron, but probably some of the previous ones have been. It's mask city here as usual and Omicron is out in the wilds, so it's just a matter of time to see what happens.

Tokyo for certain you will see most of the population taking the recommendations seriously. One place you won't see anyone wearing a mask is while running in the New Years Ekiden's. Corp or College.

 

[djpbaltimore]

Are you talking about Maryland alone or the USA? Because the stats for hospitalizations do not agree.
according to this data Jan 2021 was the most in the hospital for Maryland.

Weekly Hospitalization Trends - Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center

This chart displays the 7-day trend in overall and Covid-19-specific hospitalization occupancy data to help understand changes in capacity and level of stress on hospitals.

coronavirus.jhu.edu

Same for the USA as a whole.

Weekly Hospitalization Trends - Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center

This chart displays the 7-day trend in overall and Covid-19-specific hospitalization occupancy data to help understand changes in capacity and level of stress on hospitals.

coronavirus.jhu.edu

7 day trend misses just how fast the number of hospitalization are rising. It wasn't bad 7 days ago. One day last week, it increased by 10%. I'm talking about total hospitalizations. They are over 2k for the first time ever in this pandemic. The state dashboard is the best source. The stats support my assertion 100%.

Pages - Home

An official website of the State of Maryland.

coronavirus.maryland.gov

 

[djpbaltimore]

An epidemiologist says Australia should focus on hospitalisations, not cases. Cases are exploding with omicron but hospitalisations are not.

Australia leads world in grim Covid stat

Australia has experienced the biggest rise in daily average cases compared with its previous peak out of any country in the world, according to The New York Times.

www.news.com.au

This is kind of my point. There are going to be tradeoffs when you take the offramp from zerocovid highway. Hospitalizations seem to be rising rapidly (388 to over 900) and that is during summer. I just don't think people are being informed that severe outbreaks are almost certain given the relatively low vaccine uptake around the globe. I expect Australia will fare much better than the USA, but hospitals will be tested. There are just too many immune naive in the population in Australia and everywhere else.

MSN

www.msn.com

 

[Ultrairon]

7 day trend misses just how fast the number of hospitalization are rising. It wasn't bad 7 days ago. One day last week, it increased by 10%. I'm talking about total hospitalizations. They are over 2k for the first time ever in this pandemic. The state dashboard is the best source. The stats support my assertion 100%.

Pages - Home

An official website of the State of Maryland.

coronavirus.maryland.gov

Every state posts up data differently and when I look at those graphs I want to know what is the capacity. Lots of states show the capacity and how much of that is used etc. Maybe the john hopkins data will update soon.

I believe the total data from around the world and including the USA is proving out that omnicron is less severe than Delta.

 

[yaco]

This is kind of my point. There are going to be tradeoffs when you take the offramp from zerocovid highway. Hospitalizations seem to be rising rapidly (388 to over 900) and that is during summer. I just don't think people are being informed that severe outbreaks are almost certain given the relatively low vaccine uptake around the globe. I expect Australia will fare much better than the USA, but hospitals will be tested. There are just too many immune naive in the population in Australia and everywhere else.

MSN

www.msn.com

Think you'll find that the increased hospitalisations in Australia is caused by the tail-end of Delta - You will have more accurate figures in two weeks when Omnicron takes over - Australia is a great test case with VAXX rates of over 90% - I'll also add that Melbourne has been the most locked down city in the world for the last two years, so I doubt they'll want any more restrictions in their life.

 

[Cookster15]

This is kind of my point. There are going to be tradeoffs when you take the offramp from zerocovid highway. Hospitalizations seem to be rising rapidly (388 to over 900) and that is during summer. I just don't think people are being informed that severe outbreaks are almost certain given the relatively low vaccine uptake around the globe. I expect Australia will fare much better than the USA, but hospitals will be tested. There are just too many immune naive in the population in Australia and everywhere else.

MSN

www.msn.com

Seasons have had little effect on covid in Australia due to our climate.

How many immune naive in Australia? It is a very low percentage and even lower in the high risk over 70 age group who were prioritized in our vaccine roll-out. Then what proportion of the immune naive would likely get sick enough to be sent to hospital? A very low number.

People are being informed in Australia I can assure you - that is the problem, media hype. Our Doctors' union is the Australian Medical Association (AMA). The AMA is jumping up and down warning ICUs will be swamped. But it is hard to take them seriously looking at current trends, proportion of Australians who are fully vaccinated and ICU capacities. The AMA is basing its position on modelling. Modelling that has proven to be wildly pessimistic since the pandemic commenced.

 

[djpbaltimore]

Every state posts up data differently and when I look at those graphs I want to know what is the capacity. Lots of states show the capacity and how much of that is used etc. Maybe the john hopkins data will update soon.

That is a lot of words without saying you were wrong and that my stats proved my argument was correct. I said nothing about capacity. I said we have more hospitalizations right now than at any previous point in this pandemic. And I gave you the data to prove it.

Think you'll find that the increased hospitalisations in Australia is caused by the tail-end of Delta - You will have more accurate figures in two weeks when Omnicron takes over - Australia is a great test case with VAXX rates of over 90% - I'll also add that Melbourne has been the most locked down city in the world for the last two years, so I doubt they'll want any more restrictions in their life.

Where are you seeing 90%? The tracker I have just looked at has 76% fully vaxxed.

Seasons have had little effect on covid in Australia due to our climate.

How many immune naive in Australia? It is a very low percentage and even lower in the high risk over 70 age group who were prioritized in our vaccine roll-out. Then what proportion of the immune naive would likely get sick enough to be sent to hospital? A very low number.

People are being informed in Australia I can assure you - that is the problem, media hype. Our Doctors' union is the Australian Medical Association (AMA). The AMA is jumping up and down warning ICUs will be swamped. But it is hard to take them seriously looking at current trends, proportion of Australians who are fully vaccinated and ICU capacities. The AMA is basing its position on modelling. Modelling that has proven to be wildly pessimistic since the pandemic commenced.

Considering how few infections you had I imagine that the number of immune naive is not far from 100%-vax rate. That is a pretty high number. Maryland had a lot of infections, 70% vaxxed, and low hospitalizations a few months ago. A lot can change once you let a virus go viral by stopping most mitigations. A lot of countries are going to have to come to terms with letting outbreaks loose in the unvaxxed (or unboosted). I'm guessing most will shrug this off like flu outbreaks are shrugged off and normality will return with varying degrees of hospital stress depending on conditions on the ground.

 

[Cookster15]

Considering how few infections you had I imagine that the number of immune naive is not far from 100%-vax rate. A lot of countries are going to have to come to terms with letting outbreaks loose in the unvaxxed

The modelling I mentioned factors this in. That modelling has proven to be extremely pessimistic. You won’t have long to wait to find out if the current surge of omicron cases causes too many vaxxed people into hospitals or ICUs.

On Yaco’s claim, I am located in the state of New South Wales which is 94% fully vaxxed and still rising. Most of us received our 2nd dose very recently and are not due for the booster yet. Australia started behind but caught up quickly.

 

[movingtarget]

Teens and young adults driving record Covid cases in US, health officials say

Uptick in Covid among under-50s coincides with surge in cases among young children and increase in pediatric hospitalizations

www.theguardian.com

 

[yaco]

That is a lot of words without saying you were wrong and that my stats proved my argument was correct. I said nothing about capacity. I said we have more hospitalizations right now than at any previous point in this pandemic. And I gave you the data to prove it.
Where are you seeing 90%? The tracker I have just looked at has 76% fully vaxxed.
Considering how few infections you had I imagine that the number of immune naive is not far from 100%-vax rate. That is a pretty high number. Maryland had a lot of infections, 70% vaxxed, and low hospitalizations a few months ago. A lot can change once you let a virus go viral by stopping most mitigations. A lot of countries are going to have to come to terms with letting outbreaks loose in the unvaxxed (or unboosted). I'm guessing most will shrug this off like flu outbreaks are shrugged off and normality will return with varying degrees of hospital stress depending on conditions on the ground.

You need to use another tracker - Figures today have Australia at 90.4% fully vaccinated -Places like Australia, Portugal, Singapore and Canada are places to follow because of their high VAXX rates.

 

[Cookster15]

You need to use another tracker - Figures today have Australia at 90.4% fully vaccinated -Places like Australia, Portugal, Singapore and Canada are places to follow because of their high VAXX rates.

Spot on. This is the official data for Australia:

COVID-19 vaccine rollout update – 31 December 2021

This presentation, delivered on 31 December 2021, contains an update to Australia's COVID-19 vaccine rollout.

www.health.gov.au

 

[search]

uhm, 90% of all people aged 16 or older is the same as ~75% for the full population. So you are just reading the same number differently

 

[yaco]

uhm, 90% of all people aged 16 or older is the same as ~75% for the full population. So you are just reading the same number differently

Except, Australia like most countries have been VAXXing the 11-16 year olds since November - Some countries have even started VAXXing 3 to 11 year olds.

 

[search]

Except, Australia like most countries have been VAXXing the 11-16 year olds since November - Some countries have even started VAXXing 3 to 11 year olds.

yeah, it's all in that document linked above. 18845485 16+ fully vaccinated + 910352 aged 12-15 equals 76,9% of the population.

Of course you can argue that it makes sense to only take those eligable into account. But as no other country but Australia seems to do that, the number used for international comparison should still be the one for the full population, I'd say.

 

[yaco]

yeah, it's all in that document linked above. 18845485 16+ fully vaccinated + 910352 aged 12-15 equals 76,9% of the population.

Of course you can argue that it makes sense to only take those eligable into account. But as no other country but Australia seems to do that, the number used for international comparison should still be the one for the full population, I'd say.

I doubt that Australia is the only country that adopts that same reporting standard - It doesn't change the fact that highly vaxxed countries which I listed in a previous post are the one's ,I'm watching closely in relation to the Omnicron variant - Australia will begin the VAX roll-out for 5 to 11 year olds on January 10.

 

[Ultrairon]

That is a lot of words without saying you were wrong and that my stats proved my argument was correct. I said nothing about capacity. I said we have more hospitalizations right now than at any previous point in this pandemic. And I gave you the data to prove it.
Where are you seeing 90%? The tracker I have just looked at has 76% fully vaxxed.
Considering how few infections you had I imagine that the number of immune naive is not far from 100%-vax rate. That is a pretty high number. Maryland had a lot of infections, 70% vaxxed, and low hospitalizations a few months ago. A lot can change once you let a virus go viral by stopping most mitigations. A lot of countries are going to have to come to terms with letting outbreaks loose in the unvaxxed (or unboosted). I'm guessing most will shrug this off like flu outbreaks are shrugged off and normality will return with varying degrees of hospital stress depending on conditions on the ground.

I was going off the Hopkins data and I posted the links along with my opinion on them. You had data from the state that showed different information. Is it about being right and wrong?

 

[Ultrairon]

Federal testing supply in the USA is a absolute embarrassment. Fed gov did not invest in any testing from Jan to Sep 2021. What a waste of time and money.
I can go online and buy from biovaxnow. The fed dropped the ball once again on testing.