Coronavirus: How dangerous a threat?

[Merckx index]

Ok. It is an interesting question anyway. I'm hoping it might be the case anyway since when I'm wearing a mask I'm typically breathing through my mouth instead of my nose anyway. I'm hoping there might some truth to this.

The main advantage of breathing through the nose are the hairs that filter particles out of the air. It seems that studies with other viruses have suggested that this would be beneficial vs. the coronavirus as well. The nose also produces a chemical, nitric oxide, that is supposed to inhibit virus replication:

https://omft.info/en/news-posts/nasal-breathing-as-a-defense-against-the-corona-virus/

Yikes, there are even studies that report mouth breathing increases cancer risk. Endurance athletes beware!

All that said, I wouldn't rule out the possibility that site of entry of the virus has some impact on infection. And as you can see, there are benefits/risks to everything. Vigorous physical exercise is important to health, but it will increase oxygen intake through the mouth.

 

[Koronin]

The main advantage of breathing through the nose are the hairs that filter particles out of the air. It seems that studies with other viruses have suggested that this would be beneficial vs. the coronavirus as well. The nose also produces a chemical, nitric oxide, that is supposed to inhibit virus replication:

https://omft.info/en/news-posts/nasal-breathing-as-a-defense-against-the-corona-virus/

Yikes, there are even studies that report mouth breathing increases cancer risk. Endurance athletes beware!

All that said, I wouldn't rule out the possibility that site of entry of the virus has some impact on infection. And as you can see, there are benefits/risks to everything. Vigorous physical exercise is important to health, but it will increase oxygen intake through the mouth.

That just figures. There are no good answers. Either way I'll keep wearing a mask when I'm out. Depending on if it's for work or shopping (mostly groceries) will depend on if it's a surgical mask (provided by work) or homemade. Not even sure if one is better than the other as far as the surgical mask vs the homemade one.

 

[Jagartrott]

Surgisphere: governments and WHO changed Covid-19 policy based on suspect data from tiny US company

Surgisphere, whose employees appear to include a sci-fi writer and adult content model, provided database behind Lancet and New England Journal of Medicine hydroxychloroquine studies

www.theguardian.com

 

[yaco]

Another flare up of the Ebola virus has killed five in Congo - Always a chance that the resources diverted to COVID19 would impact on the containment of other diseases.

 

[djpbaltimore]

Regarding the study of bats, the estimate of 10-15,000 coronaviruses is mind-boggling. It's a shame that they sequenced only the polymerase, as sequence data on the RBD would be especially critical now. You would certainly want to know if there was a virus with an RBD sequence more similar to that of SARS-CoV-2 than that of RaTG13, the coronavirus most similar overall to SARS-CoV-2. The article mentioned that they also collected and analyzed bat guano. It would be of great interest to know whether any infectious virus was found in the guano, as that would probably be the most likely way that a bat would infect a human.

Absolutely. Doesn't look like that will be doable at this point from a funding perspective.

If not guano, possible the vector was saliva or even urine. That was the route for some Nipah virus infections. I don't really know much about the ecology of bats. The video is not COVID but might be of some interest to those who are curious what this type of research entails or those who wonder how people collect bat urine samples.

https://www.pbs.org/video/virus-hunter/

Surgisphere: governments and WHO changed Covid-19 policy based on suspect data from tiny US company

Surgisphere, whose employees appear to include a sci-fi writer and adult content model, provided database behind Lancet and New England Journal of Medicine hydroxychloroquine studies

www.theguardian.com

That is a huge black eye for those journals. A journal article about the alleged ineffectiveness of cloth masks was also retracted this week. Really embarrassing stuff.

 

[jmdirt]

Interesting question. Why would it make that big of a difference if it enters through the mouth vs the nose?

Saliva, mucous membrane (quantity), ACE2 (quantity), cilia, autonomic breathing...

 

[movingtarget]

As clear as mud

Global report: confusion over travel restrictions as EU starts opening borders

Some countries reluctant to allow visitors from worst-hit nations, including UK and Italy

www.theguardian.com

 

[movingtarget]

California

California: rise in Covid-19 cases raises fears over reopening and protests

Some of the rise expected as counties accelerate plans to reopen and warm weather draws people to beaches and parks, expert says

www.theguardian.com

 

[Jagartrott]

How were medical journals and WHO caught out over hydroxychloroquine?

Studies under microscope after Guardian investigation reveals flaws with data from US company Surgisphere

www.theguardian.com

Hydroxychloroquine no better than placebo, Covid-19 study finds

Trial suggests drug does not protect those exposed to coronavirus from becoming infected

www.theguardian.com

 

[djpbaltimore]

As I alluded to yesterday, the problem is that the first of those articles will cause many people to disbelieve the second. It doesn't matter that the people involved are totally different and the methodology is totally different. The P value of 0.35 pretty much says it all though. Looking in the appendix, it does appear about a fifth of the patients also received zinc, and it was not associated with any protection either. The dosing was not standardized, so I would not draw any big conclusions from that, but it is worth noting.

 

[jmdirt]

California

California: rise in Covid-19 cases raises fears over reopening and protests

Some of the rise expected as counties accelerate plans to reopen and warm weather draws people to beaches and parks, expert says

www.theguardian.com

Its going to be really tough to determine how much of the increase is due to 'opening up', and how much is due to people jamming together to protest. Obviously the first question is 'where have you been' so that can shed some light on the infection source, but if someone is rushed in and put in ICU, they won't be answering question during their in-processing. Also it was reported from one of the southern beach states that C19 positive people weren't admitting that they were at a beach party.

 

[BlueRoads]

I wonder how the numbers will look like now that we are opening borders. As I understand it, towards GB they will be open as soon as the UK decides to let go of their own 14-days quarantine. There's even talk about opening the borders towards Turkey for summer holidays.

 

[djpbaltimore]

Here is yet another facet of COVID for some people.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1268570212191928320

View: https://twitter.com/edyong209/status/1268570212191928320

 

[movingtarget]

I even read somewhere that some patients were having circulation problems in their toes and their feet were changing colour along with the tingling. No one has been saying much about the post hospital days so far or that some patients are being readmitted. Of course there also have been some miraculous stories as well with people that survived the Spanish Flu pandemic also surviving this. Most of them over 100 years of age ! The media of course are focused on the infection rate, death toll and the vaccine.................

 

[movingtarget]

No surprise

St Petersburg death tally casts doubt on Russian coronavirus figures

City issues 1,552 more death certificates in May than last year, but Covid-19 toll was 171

www.theguardian.com

 

[Merckx index]

Here is yet another facet of COVID for some people.

I've been wondering about this. So many people argue that the vast majority of people have mild symptoms and get over it quickly. If that's the case, why are there more than a million active cases in the U.S? In the past month, there have been about 700,000 new confirmed cases. That means at least 400,000 people who had active cases a month ago are still active. Why is recovery taking so long?

On the plus side, it appears that active cases in the U.S. may have finally peaked, and are starting to decline.

Some more interesting results on population density. I thought there would be a better correlation of density with case rate for cities, which have a more homogenously distributed population than states. The problem is that case data for most cities do not seem to be readily available. Most reporting is done at the county level.

So I compared population density of counties associated with the fifty largest U.S. cities with their case rate. The correlation was really poor. Why? Maybe because cities differ widely in the size and population density of the county surrounding them? Anyway, just for the hell of it, I compared county case rate with the population density just in the city within that county. Bingo. There's a very high correlation, 0.57 for case rate, and 0.59 for death rate. IOW, the high population density of cities seems to drive the case rate in the entire surrounding area--even though a minority of people reside in that city.

Why? The This makes sense when you consider that many people who live in the county outside the city still go into the city to work there, not only spending a large fraction of their time there, but probably interacting with other people more frequently than back home outside the city. Many other people outside the city go there to shop or for other purposes, again interacting with more people than back home. So from the point of view of spreading the virus, the people who live outside the city in the county in effect are residents of the city.

This also supports the notion that most cases result from clusters, where one infected people infects multiple others. Clusters like this are much more likely to occur in the city than in the county outside it.

 

[movingtarget]

Some researchers now talking about a 15% asymptomatic rate.

 

[Merckx index]

Some researchers now talking about a 15% asymptomatic rate.

15% of what? 15% of infections, or 15% of everyone? The former is possible, the latter is inconsistent with most antibody studies.

Meanwhile, the NBA apparently really plans to resume the season soon. Commish Silver says if a player tests positive, everyone else can keep playing. They're planning to test everyone every day. I guess if they do that, they don't have to trace contacts, assuming everyone stays within the bubble. But all it will take are a few false negatives. They're also talking about not letting the older coaches, like Popovich, attend the games, because of the risk.

 

[hrotha]

The problem with most estimates for asymptomatic people I've seen floating around is that they don't distinguish between true asymptomatic cases and mere presymptomatic cases. But I imagine some study must have looked into this?

 

[Chris Gadsden]

Its going to be really tough to determine how much of the increase is due to 'opening up', and how much is due to people jamming together to protest. Obviously the first question is 'where have you been' so that can shed some light on the infection source, but if someone is rushed in and put in ICU, they won't be answering question during their in-processing. Also it was reported from one of the southern beach states that C19 positive people weren't admitting that they were at a beach party.

Testing in Cali is up about 25% in the last two weeks. Newsom’s goal is 60,000 per day and we are almost there now.

At this point contact tracing is probably not going to doable to any great degree. There’s 39 million people here. Improved hygiene, social distancing where possible and basic mitigation probably will be what we can do until effective therapeutics are widely available.

 

[movingtarget]

15% of what? 15% of infections, or 15% of everyone? The former is possible, the latter is inconsistent with most antibody studies.

Meanwhile, the NBA apparently really plans to resume the season soon. Commish Silver says if a player tests positive, everyone else can keep playing. They're planning to test everyone every day. I guess if they do that, they don't have to trace contacts, assuming everyone stays within the bubble. But all it will take are a few false negatives. They're also talking about not letting the older coaches, like Popovich, attend the games, because of the risk.

The former, 15% of infections.

 

[movingtarget]

How might a second wave look ?

The first wave of Covid-19 is not over – but how might a second look?

The pandemic’s future will be decided by human action and several unanswered questions about the nature of the virus

www.theguardian.com

 

[Nomad]

15% of what? 15% of infections, or 15% of everyone? The former is possible, the latter is inconsistent with most antibody studies.

Meanwhile, the NBA apparently really plans to resume the season soon. Commish Silver says if a player tests positive, everyone else can keep playing. They're planning to test everyone every day. I guess if they do that, they don't have to trace contacts, assuming everyone stays within the bubble. But all it will take are a few false negatives. They're also talking about not letting the older coaches, like Popovich, attend the games, because of the risk.

I don't know what the big deal is because when the NBA had the outbreak back in March that started this whole panic with the sportsworld, the vast majority of the players were asymptomatic.

For example, Mitchell & Gobert, both starters for the Jazz, tested positive with Mitchell asymptomatic & Gobert reporting very mild symptoms. Mitchell was scheduled to start while Gobert was going to take it easy and sit the bench the night of their game when the season was abruptly cancelled. Also, Four(4) players from the Brooklyn Nets tested positive with three asymptomatic, including superstar Kevin Durant.

Weiterleitungshinweis

Kevin Durant, 3 Other Brooklyn Nets Players Test Positive for Coronavirus

Kevin Durant is one of four Brooklyn Nets players to have tested positive for the new coronavirus, according to The Athletic, bringing the total to seven known players in the NBA

www.google.com

Contrast this with Steph Curry back in March before the coronavirus positives, who tested positive for the seasonal flu (A-strain) and was sick enough to miss a game or two.

Stephen Curry to miss Golden State Warriors' game vs. Philadelphia 76ers due to flu

Stephen Curry returned this week from a 58-game absence, but he's out again for the Warriors as he's now being treated for seasonal flu.

www.google.com

So, with the majority of cases asymptomatic for pro-basketball players, and with many that have played through games in the past with seasonal flu symptoms, why the delay in resuming the season is beyond me. And for older coaches as you mentioned (Pop, Casey, D'Antoni are over 65) the league will have to figure something out to reduce their risk.

 

[jmdirt]

How might a second wave look ?

The first wave of Covid-19 is not over – but how might a second look?

The pandemic’s future will be decided by human action and several unanswered questions about the nature of the virus

www.theguardian.com

This isn't directed at you moving target, but I'm seeing too many of these prediction articles. "We don't really know so here are 3, 5, 7, things that could happen...". If you toss out enough general ideas, one might be close, but tossing out ideas is what makes people stop listening because most of them won't be accurate. That has been a big problem with all of the models dealing with COVID19, they are meant for scientific discovery, not mass consumption so when one is slightly wrong or completely wrong people tune out because they don't understand.

 

[yaco]

I worry about the term 'second wave' - As far as I am concerned many countries were hit by a 'tidal wave' because of a lack of planning and preparation - Countries now understand enough about the virus to ensure that any future outbreaks are ripples.