Coronavirus: How dangerous a threat?

[Nirvana]

A study commissioned to a local clinic by the mayor of Nembro states that in the town the real number of deaths is four times higher than officially reported mainly because of people that die at home like already stated for Bergamo.

«Le vittime di Coronavirus in Italia sono 4 volte di più». Lo studio su Nembro e il numero anomalo di decessi

Lo studio del sindaco e dell'ad del centro medico Sant'Agostino può essere esteso a tutto il territorio italiano: la cifra reale di contagi potrebbe essere stata largamente sottostimata

www.open.online

 

[Kaptain Kool]

I have read that it doesn't like UV light.

Tbh I think anyone is grabbing anything got a glimmer of hope at the moment. If it was a temp / humidity thing why has it spread to virtually everywhere on the globe?

It won't go away in summer, just that that it spreads less easily. The countries in my region of the world (SE Asia) have less of a problem than Europe or North America. Sure, confirmed cases go up every day but our hospitals aren't overrun and we have few deaths.
My country (Thailand) had the first confirmed case outside of China in mid-January. We've had 6 total COVID-19 deaths despite not really taking preventative measures until a couple of weeks ago.

The hope for harder hit northern hemisphere nations is that current isolation / social isolation measures are effective, so that, combined with the help of summer, they can concentrate on identifying and isolating clusters rather than having to react to an overwhelming number of critical cases.

 

[Jagartrott]

The pilot study I spoke of earlier, where non-covid-19 related cases in a Brussels hospital are all CT-scanned, then tested for covid-19 if the lung image looks suspicious, that study is still ongoing. The first day, they found 5/50 positives, after a week, the percentage is still at 8% (I don't know the total number tested). These are cases that show up suspicious on the CT-scan, so it must mean the total percentage is higher. The sample size is obviously still much too low, but the cases coming in are people with appendicitis, pregnancy, etc. - pretty random. The modelling study that claimed 50% of people in Britain had already been infected seems totally over the top, but even if they overestimated the infection rate ten-fold, that would still be good news relative to the number of fatalities.

In any case, this virus is an enigma.

Edit: found a news story on this in English: https://www.brusselstimes.com/all-n...fected-without-knowing-it-uz-brussel-ct-scan/

 

[hrotha]

A study commissioned to a local clinic by the mayor of Nembro states that in the town the real number of deaths is four times higher than officially reported mainly because of people that die at home like already stated for Bergamo.

«Le vittime di Coronavirus in Italia sono 4 volte di più». Lo studio su Nembro e il numero anomalo di decessi

Lo studio del sindaco e dell'ad del centro medico Sant'Agostino può essere esteso a tutto il territorio italiano: la cifra reale di contagi potrebbe essere stata largamente sottostimata

www.open.online

Some preliminary data from Spain suggests more or less the same.

 

[djpbaltimore]

Commentary about a new paper from China concerning anecdotal use of convalescent serum. Houston just started a trial and NYC is not far behind.

Convalescent Plasma to Treat COVID-19

In this issue of JAMA, Shen et al report findings from a preliminary study of 5 severely ill patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) who were treated in the Shenzhen Third People's Hospital, China, using plasma from recovered individuals.1 All patients had severe respiratory failure and...

jamanetwork.com

 

[aphronesis]

Concerns over death-in-service benefits keeping doctors from NHS frontline

Survey finds loss of benefits has made some doctors less willing to work in high-risk areas

www.theguardian.com

 

[nevele neves]

The world health organization is pathetically covering for china and when asked simple questions about Taiwan they dodge and turn off. The won't even acknowledge Taiwan never the less how they are doing with the Virus.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1243865641448169474

 

[Chris Gadsden]

No it didn't.

Clinical trials may begin next week in New York for coronavirus treatments: Health official

Gov. Cuomo announced this week that he was eager to get the trials started.

abcnews.go.com

Okay, the Governor is a liar then.

https://www.governor.ny.gov/news/am...epts-recommendation-army-corps-engineers-four

 

[nevele neves]

Maybe just maybe china is not telling the truth. Remembering back when the WHO supported the comments from china that there is no person to person back in Dec 31. About 30 days later the corrupted WHO call it an emergency. Feb11th they name it COVID-19 because they don't want to stigmatize people of places.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...in-wuhan-prompt-new-questions-of-virus-s-toll

https://abcnews.go.com/Health/timeline-coronavirus-started/story?id=69435165

 

[Chris Gadsden]

I have posted two threads about this paper. If you want to read them, go ahead. You are right that I should 've wrote viral RNA. I assume it would be proportional to viral burden, but that was not measured.

Why was this trial not randomized? The study from China was limited, but it was randomized. Big difference.

Medical urgency? What is the rush to publish a study like this? It doesn't change the situation on the ground. Chloroquine was always going to be tried in real trials due to preclinical studies with SARs. 24 hour peer review benefits one group of people: the authors of the study. I initially thought it was sloppy, but now tend to believe that is a naive perspective.

Chloroquine genius Didier Raoult to save the world from COVID-19

As COVID19 pandemic rages on, French microbiologist Didier Raoult offers a cure. President Trump is convinced, but is Raoult’s research reliable, here and in general?

forbetterscience.com

I was doing some research on Didier Raoult. He has a very hefty palamares but I did find the reason why you would want to discount his work.. combine that a with a seemingly blanket acceptance of C19 info coming out of China and I am left wondering what the deal is...

 

[nevele neves]

Okay, the Governor is a liar then.

https://www.governor.ny.gov/news/am...epts-recommendation-army-corps-engineers-four

Well we know the WHO are liars. Maybe Cumo dates are just a confusion on when it actually started. I watched a briefing by him that said NY had started the trials. Maybe not.

 

[aphronesis]

Gov. Cuomo to Administer 1,100 Hydroxychloroquine and Zithromax Test

Gov. Cuomo is administering 1100 Hydroxychloroquine and Zithromax test. Additionally, Cuomo hopes to Open Javits Center, which has been converted into a field hospital, on Monday.

www.google.com

 

[Jagartrott]

Maybe just maybe china is not telling the truth. Remembering back when the WHO supported the comments from china that there is no person to person back in Dec 31. About 30 days later the corrupted WHO call it an emergency. Feb11th they name it COVID-19 because they don't want to stigmatize people of places.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...in-wuhan-prompt-new-questions-of-virus-s-toll

https://abcnews.go.com/Health/timeline-coronavirus-started/story?id=69435165

Have they factored in the amount of people that have died of natural causes during that two-month period of lockdown? We're talking about a city of about ten million, so you'd expect thousands of non-covid related deaths.

 

[Chris Gadsden]

Maybe just maybe china is not telling the truth. Remembering back when the WHO supported the comments from china that there is no person to person back in Dec 31. About 30 days later the corrupted WHO call it an emergency. Feb11th they name it COVID-19 because they don't want to stigmatize people of places.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...in-wuhan-prompt-new-questions-of-virus-s-toll

https://abcnews.go.com/Health/timeline-coronavirus-started/story?id=69435165

The big problem with China is not knowing what’s true and what isn’t. Clearly the ChiComs are’t being forthcoming.

 

[Chris Gadsden]

Well we know the WHO are liars. Maybe Cumo dates are just a confusion on when it actually started. I watched a briefing by him that said NY had started the trials. Maybe not.

And the point is not unimportant. If the trials stared on 3/24 then data will start being available a week sooner. A week - right now - is a big deal.

 

[aphronesis]

No, it’s not. The data changes daily anyway. They started this week. Possibly not Tuesday. Would it be a stretch for you to let it go and post something useful?

 

[Chris Gadsden]

No, it’s not. The data changes daily anyway. They started this week. Possibly not Tuesday. Would it be a stretch for you to let it go and post something useful?

Yeah, a start date for possible therapeutic and its efficacy for a global pandemic isn’t worth the bandwidth here especially considering the drug combo may have shown results in 6 days (Raoult paper).

So consider it let go.

 

[nevele neves]

Have they factored in the amount of people that have died of natural causes during that two-month period of lockdown? We're talking about a city of about ten million, so you'd expect thousands of non-covid related deaths.

In the article from bloomberg it mentions the average deaths of previous time frames. I'm not sure how they got their numbers. But I don't think its just a coincidence either.
I'm not convinced with the china data. Other maybe able to accept their data as the truth but I am not going to fall into that propaganda trap.

 

[jmdirt]

There are many rural areas in the US that don't have hospitals at all which will complicate problems in some areas.

Many of the small towns around Boise are begging people not to 'escape the city' and come to their towns because they have little to no medical capacity.

 

[Chris Gadsden]

Many of the small towns around Boise are begging people not to 'escape the city' and come to their towns because they have little to no medical capacity.

Same with coastal Central California. Last weekend there were floods of people from inland towns coming to the beach.. to whale watch. This weekend those same towns have closed all parking near the beach and put the word out that if you don't live there please don't come right now.

 

[Koronin]

Many of the small towns around Boise are begging people not to 'escape the city' and come to their towns because they have little to no medical capacity.

That's not surprising.

 

[Jagartrott]

In the article from bloomberg it mentions the average deaths of previous time frames. I'm not sure how they got their numbers. But I don't think its just a coincidence either.
I'm not convinced with the china data. Other maybe able to accept their data as the truth but I am not going to fall into that propaganda trap.

They mentioned 4th quarter death, but that hardly seems relevant. The infection started sometime in December, with first hospital reports late December. For the infection to really spread and people to start dying, it takes a while, so in December you would not expect more than a few, or a few dozen covid-deaths. Certainly less than you would be able to detect statistically. Even first quarter 2020 deaths would likely not be very helpful as such, as you'd expect less deaths from traffic accidents, air pollution, etc.

 

[djpbaltimore]

I was doing some research on Didier Raoult. He has a very hefty palamares but I did find the reason why you would want to discount his work.. combine that a with a seemingly blanket acceptance of C19 info coming out of China and I am left wondering what the deal is...

If you are a scientist, you should not pre- judge a work submitted based on the country the work was done or the nationality of the authors. Period.

It is true that his stature was the significant driver in how the study got published. That is the point. Kinda funny how the 'cure' to COVID-19 is published in a third tier journal though. Read the article I posted. The scientific flaws speak for themselves. Given the two trials in question, I have been a scientist long enough to trust a study that shows negative data more than one whose data is too good to be true. Tell me, how do you suppose an antibiotic that kills bacteria is decreasing the amount of viral RNA?

Cuomo isn't running the clinical trial last i checked. Why would he know better than the hospitals?

As I have been talking about for weeks. Testing was always the key and the biggest failure here in the USA.

The Lost Month: How a Failure to Test Blinded the U.S. to Covid-19 (Published 2020)

Aggressive screening might have helped contain the coronavirus in the United States. But technical flaws, regulatory hurdles and lapses in leadership let it spread undetected for weeks.

www.nytimes.com

 

[yaco]

You'll find that many countries will massage the figures during this COVID 19 crisis - Have no doubt that some countries like China and Italy have under-reported death rates - Other countries will probably under report positive cases - My layperson's opinion is that paradoxically the virus is far more widespread then we can imagine throughout the world, so the unfortunate death-rate per infection is probably much lower - The world needs an anti-body test to be released and widely available to gain a better picture of what percentage of people have actually been infected.

 

[Chris Gadsden]

If you are a scientist, you should not pre- judge a work submitted based on the country the work was done or the nationality of the authors. Period.

There will be postmortem conducted and I'll bet much of the information coming out of China wrt this pandemic will prove to be highly suspect.

It is true that his stature was the significant driver in how the study got published. That is the point.

Let me know if you can spot the irony with your quote above.


Then;

Zach Weinberg, one of the co-founders of Flatiron Health...“Sometimes people confuse saying, ‘the study doesn’t tell you anything’ with saying the drug doesn’t work,” Weinberg said. “That’s a really important distinction. They’re not the same thing. I’m not saying the drug doesn’t work or does work. What I’m actually saying is nobody knows if the drug works or doesn’t work.”

Exactly.