Coronavirus: How dangerous a threat?

[nevele neves]

By doing what very few other governments can. Tracking the movements of every infected person, identifying the people they came into contact with, and targeting them for testing. Using AI to identify the most likely locations of clusters.

I just put my phone into a funyuns bag.......

 

[8472]

CHINA = LIES

The world knows now. We will never forget and the price will be paid. "human to human??? no way"

CHINA LIED TO US ALL. get over it.

Instead of providing arguments backed up by facts, you've resulted to blind denial covering your eyes and shouting of LIES LIES LIES!! Keep parroting the same MSM propaganda you've been fed. Really helps to tell apart the indoctrinated sheeple from those who can think for themselves.

 

[Cookster15]

…….. means that the crackdown was not too late, and could be contained.

How many travelled out of Wuhan before this happened and where in China DID THEY GO?

South Korea did not go into lockdown, unlike China. But they managed to significantly flatten the curve though aggressive testing of infection clusters like China. Strict containment measures, coupled with the fact that the main cluster in China was centred around Wuhan/Hubei as Jagartrott said, means that the crackdown was not too late, and could be contained.

That isn't a plausible explanation IMO. Thousands travelled out of Wuhan before the lockdown - many to other countries who are now dealing with the consequences. In my country a significant portion of the initial outbreak of new cases were from arrivals that could be traced to Wuhan. So how many travelled out of Wuhan to other parts of China and spread to other people? Also, how is China able to restart its factories ? Just one infected worker needs to return to work and the problem will inevitably reappear. In many cases there are no symptoms yet the virus can still be spread. So infrared scanning is no failsafe in that situation. There is no vaccine for this virus. Until there is, short of the virus itself losing potency, it won't be beaten any more than we have found a cure for the common cold.

 

[Merckx index]

I believe he was depending on them for the info. I remember a confrontational interview where someone questioned him about the validity of the data and facts from china then and he would not back down. They outright lied to everyone. I doubt a few here will admit it and continue to find some weird way to roll it back to the WEST.
The good thing about the WEB today is everything is still there.

good luck to anyone who wants to defend these bastards.

My bad. The study was not published on Jan. 3, but three weeks later. So Fauci would not have seen it. However, the non-associations with the wet market should have been known sooner to some people. My post has been edited.

 

[8472]

How many travelled out of Wuhan before this happened and where in China DID THEY GO?

That isn't a plausible explanation IMO. Thousands travelled out of Wuhan before the lockdown - many to other countries who are now dealing with the consequences. In my country a significant portion of the initial outbreak of new cases were from arrivals that could be traced to Wuhan. So how many travelled out of Wuhan to other parts of China and spread to other people? Also, how is China able to restart its factories ? Just one infected worker needs to return to work and the problem will inevitably reappear. In many cases there are no symptoms yet the virus can still be spread. So infrared scanning is no failsafe in that situation. There is no vaccine for this virus. Until there is, short of the virus itself losing potency, it won't be beaten any more than we have found a cure for the common cold.

The majority are migrant workers who travelled to other parts of China due to the Chinese New Year, hence the nationwide spread. But this was contained since the whole country was basically on lockdown measures more strict than any of those currently in place around the world. Of course some travelled overseas as well, which would've resulted in infections in other countries, but it was those countries responsibility to close their borders and restrict inbound travel.

China is able to restart its factories because they already significantly contained the outbreak. Sure there might definitely be a few new cases and asymptomatics around, but everyone is still taking precautions with masks and temperature checks. Time will tell if a second round of infections will take place due to this resumption of work.

 

[Cookster15]

By doing what very few other governments can. Tracking the movements of every infected person, identifying the people they came into contact with, and targeting them for testing. Using AI to identify the most likely locations of clusters.

I am still sceptical. After the lockdown sure but not retrospectively. Between the moment the Wuhan outbreak started and the lockdown, did the Chinese government trace the movements of thousands including everyone they came into contact with? Also, you are forgetting something else. The virus isn't just spread by person to person contact. It can also be spread on surfaces contaminated by the infected person. Has China managed to trace and disinfect millions of surfaces ? I just don't believe that sorry.

 

[Koronin]

We appear to have an antibody test that will start to be used this week. Governor Newsom (California) mentioned it in one of his press conferences this past week. This antibody test will help find out who has had the virus without having been tested and thus has at least some immunity to it. Now to start with only front line workers are going to be getting it. As it's a blood test it has a shorter turn around time. With that test you would think it would start to allow some workers to go back to work once we can start mass testing people. Of course an actual vaccine is much farther away. The other thing is, is that those who have antibodies can donate blood or plasma which can and is being used on people in the hospital to help them recover.

 

[Cookster15]

The majority are migrant workers who travelled to other parts of China due to the Chinese New Year, hence the nationwide spread. But this was contained since the whole country was basically on lockdown measures more strict than any of those currently in place around the world. Of course some travelled overseas as well, which would've resulted in infections in other countries, but it was those countries responsibility to close their borders and restrict inbound travel.

China is able to restart its factories because they already significantly contained the outbreak. Sure there might definitely be a few new cases and asymptomatics around, but everyone is still taking precautions with masks and temperature checks. Time will tell if a second round of infections will take place due to this resumption of work.

I am aware China can act as other countries cannot. I am also aware that China has a very compliant population. But I am still doubtful. I am glad you mentioned "time will tell". We will see.

 

[8472]

A week after LI Wenliang first experienced symptoms, and was hospitalized shortly after, China and WHO were still saying there was no clear evidence of human-human transmission or infection of medical staff. At least two other doctors in Wuhan were infected before Li. The Lancet published a study of 41 infected people, and found no evidence for association with the wet market for 14 of them. The authors clearly stated in the conclusion that they thought human-human transmission was likely. Now that article was officially published on Jan. 24, but all the patients admitted to the study were registered at least three weeks earlier, at which time the wet market link would have been known. The statement "no clear evidence" simply was false. No definitive proof maybe, but definitely clear evidence.

By doing what very few other governments can. Tracking the movements of every infected person, identifying the people they came into contact with, and targeting them for testing. Using AI to identify the most likely locations of clusters.

Yes, in hindsight, there were many areas that were lacking and should've been performed better. Like I said earlier, one of the biggest mistakes they made early on was setting the confirmation bar for a positive test way too high (requiring travel to the Wuhan seafood market at ground zero). This led to a lot of people who were not diagnosed when they clearly had the symptoms, and foolish when you consider that human-to-human transmission was indeed possible.

But they did react with full force once the full scale of the outbreak was known, resulting in the control and eradication within a ¬2 month period of lockdown. Other countries like Italy, Australia and Switzerland have also seen their doubling times drop significantly (no longer exponential growth, some even starting to plateau) as a result of restrictions, proving that this action definitely works.

 

[Merckx index]

But this was contained since the whole country was basically on lockdown measures more strict than any of those currently in place around the world.

I'm in the Philippines, and I want to point out that beginning April 7, the country is going on a lockdown that AFAIK will be very similar to what happened in China. Every household/living unit is given one pass, which can be used by one member to go out on essential trips, for food , drugs, or hospital visits. No one else will be allowed out at all.

I am still sceptical. After the lockdown sure but not retrospectively. Between the moment the Wuhan outbreak started and the lockdown, did the Chinese government trace the movements of thousands including everyone they came into contact with? Also, you are forgetting something else. The virus isn't just spread by person to person contact. It can also be spread on surfaces contaminated by the infected person. Has China managed to trace and disinfect millions of surfaces ? I just don't believe that sorry.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020...bat-coronavirus-outbreak-200301063901951.html

They were doing this before the lockdown in some places. The following occurred on Jan. 23, less than a week after the country announced that there was human-human transmission:

The following day, Ren, who asked to be identified only by his surname, went to a nearby farm to harvest cabbage and radishes for the New Year's eve dinner. As he arrived, he received a phone call from the local authorities telling him to return home immediately.

Ren said he believes local officials had tracked his movements using surveillance cameras installed in his neighbourhood.

"I expected they'd find out I had returned to Sichuan from Hubei because all the trains and buses I took require real-name registration," Ren told Al Jazeera in a phone call. "What I was surprised by was the fact they have surveillance cameras installed in my small neighbourhood, and they might be constantly monitoring to make sure I don't leave my house during the 14-day quarantine."

Other ways in which China is using big data in this outbreak include tracking information on people's movements through their mobile phones and rolling out mobile apps that allow users to find out if they have come in contact with a confirmed coronavirus carrier.

For instance, telecom company China Mobile sent numerous text messages to media outlets about people confirmed to have the virus. These text messages normally include information about a patient's travel history and could be as detailed as the seat he or she sat on while taking a specific train or even which subway train compartment they boarded at a specific time. In the early days of the outbreak, media outlets would post this information on social media, allowing people to find out if they had come to close contact with confirmed patients and then quarantine themselves if necessary.

The government has now rolled out a mobile app called "Close Contact Detector" to allow people to do this. Upon entry of personal identification details, users can scan a QR code to check whether they have been in close contact with someone infected and whether they are at a heightened risk.

Of course, they couldn't disinfect every surface, though they have done some disinfection campaigns. But the virus doesn't last forever on surfaces, either.

 

[yaco]

How long elapsed between the original outbreak in Wuhan and the crackdown? It was too late to contain it by then, the cat was already out of the bag. Look at the WHO charts of case numbers. Someone else said how did South Korea do it? They didn't. Look at the WHO charts which raise more questions than answers.

You need to understand that the relevant authorities including WHO and National Governments were notified by XMAS in 2019 but ALL chose not to publically release the information at this time - Yes there was local issues in China with the Hubei province not truthfully reporting back to Beijing and failing to use their detailed health system reporting records - Note this is always an issue in China - But more importantly what China and the rest of the world didn't realise ,was that asymptomatic carriers could spread the disease - This was the biggest issue and by the time China realised this, it lost a month - Please don't trust all that you read in the MSM - You need to delve deeper into the issues.

 

[yaco]

Will add that countries have repatriated thousands of their citizens during the lockdown in Hubei province and there has been a total of one positive case in Hong Kong - So at that stage the lockdown was successful.

 

[Cookster15]

You need to understand that the relevant authorities including WHO and National Governments were notified by XMAS in 2019 but ALL chose not to publically release the information at this time - Yes there was local issues in China with the Hubei province not truthfully reporting back to Beijing and failing to use their detailed health system reporting records - Note this is always an issue in China - But more importantly what China and the rest of the world didn't realise ,was that asymptomatic carriers could spread the disease - This was the biggest issue and by the time China realised this, it lost a month - Please don't trust all that you read in the MSM - You need to delve deeper into the issues.

That is exactly my point and I don't trust the MSM. The MSM in Australia keeps repeating unquestioningly the WHO stats that China's case count has flatlined. But China lost a month as you admit and I have said here. This is why I doubt their new case numbers crackdown or not. Also, the virus is not just spread by person to person contact including asymptomatic carriers but by people touching contaminated surfaces. Depending upon the material and temperature this can up 4 days that the virus can live on a surface that I have read. How many surfaces were contaminated by those who left Wuhan before the crackdown?

By the way, recent trends in Australia are encouraging. Notwithstanding stories of beaches in Sydney being closed as too many people are ignoring the social distancing laws now in force.

 

[Jagartrott]

Wrong, I think they were right to stop travel. In fact, all countries should have enforced the travel ban to and from China. But it's the responsibility of other countries to restrict travel and close their borders. If you're another country and you don't want Chinese people to travel to your country, you don't have to allow them. That's up to you, that's what closing the borders are for. Why's it up to China to decide for the entire world what they are willing to accept into their country?

But the WHO kept on advising against travel bans. On 31 January, when the US issued a travel ban advisory, the WHO spread a statement that widespread travel bans and restrictions were not needed to stop the outbreak, and could “have the effect of increasing fear and stigma, with little public health benefit”. I'm not one to believe in conspiracies, but it is well known that China put pressure on WHO (directly or indirectly) - which is also why the 'pandemic' declaration came so late.

 

[Cookster15]

But the virus doesn't last forever on surfaces, either.

It doesn't have to. In some cases it can live for maybe 4 days depending upon the surface and temperature. That's plenty to infect an unsuspecting hand.

 

[hrotha]

Even assuming that the Chinese authorities initially lied about human transmission, once this information was relayed the rest of the world still had plenty of time to design proper containment strategies before this blew up in their faces. Many, many countries didn't. Blaming China for their failure seems disingenuous to me.

 

[8472]

But the WHO kept on advising against travel bans. On 31 January, when the US issued a travel ban advisory, the WHO spread a statement that widespread travel bans and restrictions were not needed to stop the outbreak, and could “have the effect of increasing fear and stigma, with little public health benefit”. I'm not one to believe in conspiracies, but it is well known that China put pressure on WHO (directly or indirectly) - which is also why the 'pandemic' declaration came so late.

It's always in the best interest of the country to close its own borders, regardless of what WHO or any other country says. If WHO advised against travel ban, then they were wrong. US was right to close the border early on with China, but they delayed in closing borders with Italy (and later on the UK), even though there were huge infection clusters in those countries at that time. Likewise for most of Europe, since looking at the phylogenetic tree of the coronavirus, the majority of viral haplotypes belong to the same viral strain found in Italy rather the strain from China, meaning they were most likely directly spread from Italy rather than China. Therefore, neighbouring countries around China who closed borders early had very little infections (Afghanistan, Kazakhstan, Mongolia, Laos, Taiwan, Singapore). But neighbouring countries around Italy did not close borders with Italy until it was too late (many not until mid March), therefore the virus easily spread to pretty much every country in Europe.

It doesn't have to. In some cases it can live for maybe 4 days depending upon the surface and temperature. That's plenty to infect an unsuspecting hand.

By that time everyone was already taking massive precautions via gloves, hand washing and use of hand sanitizers/alcohol sprays, so transmission via surface contact would be minimal.

 

[yaco]

That is exactly my point and I don't trust the MSM. The MSM in Australia keeps repeating unquestioningly the WHO stats that China's case count has flatlined. But China lost a month as you admit and I have said here. This is why I doubt their new case numbers crackdown or not. Also, the virus is not just spread by person to person contact including asymptomatic carriers but by people touching contaminated surfaces. Depending upon the material and temperature this can up 4 days that the virus can live on a surface that I have read. How many surfaces were contaminated by those who left Wuhan before the crackdown?

By the way, recent trends in Australia are encouraging. Notwithstanding stories of beaches in Sydney being closed as too many people are ignoring the social distancing laws now in force.

The fact is countries have repatriated tens of thousand of citizens from Hubei province, between Mid February and the end of March for one positive test. which suggests the lockdown worked - The media and countries would jump up and down if lots of these repatriated citizens had tested positive - Mainland China has even further ramped up testing for anyone who enters their borders - All flights are redirected to Shanghai where all people are immediately tested and they must wait 24 hrs for results - Tested positive and you stay in Shanghai for quarantine - Test negative and then authorities organise a flight to your next destination and its 14 days quarantine with testing every three days - After that if you are still negative it's seven days self isolation and they will again test you on the 21st day to be 100% certain.

 

[yaco]

It doesn't have to. In some cases it can live for maybe 4 days depending upon the surface and temperature. That's plenty to infect an unsuspecting hand.

Hey - People need to take personal responsibility - You should be carrying hand sanitizer if you leave home and use it at least every 20 minutes.

 

[djpbaltimore]

sorry man but you are wrong. I gave you proof and you ignore it. You were or was in a "large town" for arkansas. many people can give you examples but you were probably close to a university or metro area for there.

You want those poor bastards to only have access to canned food or boxed food. "any other store" That is why we have the current leadership we have today , simple minded one track minded people like this.

too bad none of what you posted showed that most people had to travel more than 3 miles for groceries. Some do, but most live in cities with ample access to stores. Period.

but yet somehow I bet 8472 or Baltimore Arkansas will tell you that you would be wrong to stop all travel from China.The exact place all of this originates from and the exact people who lied. No human to human not in the air. F off really if you can't see this for what it is.

They lied to everyone and now we pay the price.

Like most of your opinions you are wrong again. We should have cut travel sooner. By the time some flights were banned, the cat was out of the bag. The virus was spreading in the community. CDC totally dropped the ball. We are paying the price because of criminal inaction in Feb. We could have been SK, but we failed completely, and completely independent of China.

"travel ban "

430,000 People Have Traveled From China to U.S. Since Coronavirus Surfaced (Published 2020)

There were 1,300 direct flights to 17 cities before President Trump’s travel restrictions. Since then, nearly 40,000 Americans and other authorized travelers have made the trip, some this past week and many with spotty screening.

www.nytimes.com

 

[Cookster15]

It's always in the best interest of the country to close its own borders, regardless of what WHO or any other country says. If WHO advised against travel ban, then they were wrong. US was right to close the border early on with China, but they delayed in closing borders with Italy (and later on the UK), even though there were huge infection clusters in those countries at that time. Likewise for most of Europe, since looking at the phylogenetic tree of the coronavirus, the majority of viral haplotypes belong to the same viral strain found in Italy rather the strain from China, meaning they were most likely directly spread from Italy rather than China. Therefore, neighbouring countries around China who closed borders early had very little infections (Afghanistan, Kazakhstan, Mongolia, Laos, Taiwan, Singapore). But neighbouring countries around Italy did not close borders with Italy until it was too late (many not until mid March), therefore the virus easily spread to pretty much every country in Europe.



By that time everyone was already taking massive precautions via gloves, hand washing and use of hand sanitizers/alcohol sprays, so transmission via surface contact would be minimal.

Yes but we are talking about a country of 1.4 billion people with now negligible new case counts. Sorry you are not convincing me.

Even assuming that the Chinese authorities initially lied about human transmission, once this information was relayed the rest of the world still had plenty of time to design proper containment strategies before this blew up in their faces. Many, many countries didn't. Blaming China for their failure seems disingenuous to me.

How can you act of you are not aware? Nobody knew until it was too late. Of course those countries need to accept responsibility for being too slow to act after China announced it had a problem but it is an undeniable fact that the virus spread from Wuhan to the rest of the world before China's strict lockdown had been implemented.

 

[jmdirt]

All IMO:
-China lied in Dec, Jan, Feb, March, still lying.
-The USA (insert your country here) would do the exact same thing.
---Countries don't have the same 'gag' control over info. though.
-If you see a pandemic boiling up on your shores, you DO have a responsibility to close your own boarders (but that would require honesty...).
-How did MSM become a target? Is there another source for information? AM? UM? NMSM? If I don't have a source of information, Its just another episode of "All About Me".

 

[hrotha]

How can you act of you are not aware? Nobody knew until it was too late. Of course those countries need to accept responsibility for being too slow to act after China announced it had a problem but it is an undeniable fact that the virus spread from Wuhan to the rest of the world before China's strict lockdown had been implemented.

Because every country in Europe and the Americas became aware of the real scale of the problem long before they had a real outbreak within their borders, and most of them still chose to do zilch. We're talking about human-to-human transmission being acknowledged by late January, and yet Spain (as an example) only started timidly doing something about it in late February, and no effective measures were taken until mid March. Certainly there were cases in February, many of which went undetected, but at the scale they were the situation could still have been controlled. To this day, the US still isn't enforcing a strict nation-wide lockdown. Whose fault is that?

 

[Jagartrott]

What this illustrates very well is downplaying serious threats. Especially among leaders who think they can choose which facts are real. I hope we learn lessons for issues that are actually much worse in impact and scale, but that we have largely deemed fit to ignore up till now.

 

[Unchained]

I think it's important to put one argument to rest for a few very very specific reasons and realities.
China lies.
China is not a democracy or anything like one. To sudden do an apples to apples comparison when it was always between orange or something else completely dissimilar.
in the US some things are absolutely clear, we don't know about the short or long-term behavior of the virus or humans pre or post infection
We need to be able to test everyone in the US multiple times. We need to be testing non Americans at both southern and northern borders..that includes in other countries.
America needs to do an emergency systematic evaluation of employment standards top to bottom.
First understand what the snake bite will do to American culture,America's residents going forward. When huge swaths of America gets healthcare connected to employment,what to do when millions still need immediate and emergency medical services. Both preventive and corrective.
Americans also need to learn to define what constitutes a countable job.
current cash infusion has reclassified gig jobs, reestablished what the responsibility of the government is for folks in low wage,almost zero benefit jobs in the service sector.
This reveals that the most inefficient,expensive and deadly dangerous techniques for giving low wage workers sick leave and financial and medical services is when a pandemic forces our hand.
Need nurses in school. Need to understand how many children get food and medical care from schools as a primary outlet for both.
The low wage service sector workers are the single biggest danger to America. The guy selling hotdogs or tshirt s ,making food, washing,cleaning,these people are fragile. Because of the structure of the e economy,these people are in a life or death risk taking process to save the lives of their families and themselves.
No matter where we go from here,everyone needs sick leave and access to medical care.
I can't expect to really really really understand why a guy that makes pizza or burritos for a living would risk his life and mine to get to work..or stay at work when he shouldn't.
Gotta trust human nature. I need to help the guy making my food not feel ( real or imagined) so so very desperate.
China is bad.
Need to solve low wage workers protections so their ultra high risk behaviors don't endanger all of us..