Coronavirus: How dangerous a threat?

[dusty red roads]

Delta is spreading in one of the world's most vaccinated nations. Here's why they're still optimistic

As Australia contemplates a shift in its COVID-19 strategy from suppressing outbreaks to managing them, Israel is giving us a glimpse into a future in which we can live relatively normally with the virus.

www.abc.net.au

Though still too early to know if it gives the same results for long covid and other non-hospitalized complications.

 

[movingtarget]

I totally agree with you on the bold bit. I applied for vaccination but the earliest available time slot at one of the few vaccination clinics near me was a month from now? I don't know how much lack of vaccine supply is to blame but getting vaccinated really shouldn't be so difficult.

On the travel industry , I also agree. On the flip side is the overall Australian economy is steaming ahead despite closed international borders and other restrictions (Yaco please note). But there is still too much paranoia in Australia and maybe the media is part of that problem. The paranoia started with Covid-19 and state border closures and now the paranoia is about getting vaccinated and suffering blood clots. Do these same people worry about being struck by lightning?

Seems the Sydney lockdown might be extended past the two weeks if case numbers don't start dropping while QLD are opening up earlier but they only have a handful of cases. Yes the vaxx issues have been a worry but the lockdowns and border closures seem to have worked well except for people still stuck overseas. Maybe some of the foreign students will never return at this point and may look to transfer their studies.

 

[yaco]

I totally agree with you on the bold bit. I applied for vaccination but the earliest available time slot at one of the few vaccination clinics near me was a month from now? I don't know how much lack of vaccine supply is to blame but getting vaccinated really shouldn't be so difficult.

On the travel industry , I also agree. On the flip side is the overall Australian economy is steaming ahead despite closed international borders and other restrictions (Yaco please note). But there is still too much paranoia in Australia and maybe the media is part of that problem. The paranoia started with Covid-19 and state border closures and now the paranoia is about getting vaccinated and suffering blood clots. Do these same people worry about being struck by lightning?

Australia is a very strange case - Has now reduced their travel cap by 50% for the next six months even though the world is increasingly being vaccinated - Logically it should be the opposite in which you should be increasing your travel cap with the vaccination of residents and citizens - I agree there are cultural factors at play in which 'the fear of death' is stronger than in many other countries - Finally, I will point out that Australia is the only western democracy that has banned their citizens from travelling ( except for travelling exemptions ) since the beginning of the pandemic in March 2020 - And if you follow the Prime Minister's road map this will stretch well into 2022.

 

[yaco]

Seems the Sydney lockdown might be extended past the two weeks if case numbers don't start dropping while QLD are opening up earlier but they only have a handful of cases. Yes the vaxx issues have been a worry but the lockdowns and border closures seem to have worked well except for people still stuck overseas. Maybe some of the foreign students will never return at this point and may look to transfer their studies.

Australia dropped the ball with foreign students - They got lucky because the education agents etc, predicted borders would be closed, so arranged for the students on summer holidays to return to OZ earlier they had planned.

People who work and live overseas - There has been a myth perpetuated in the media - The media hangs their hat on the 43,000 who allegedly want to return to Australia ASAP - This is people who have registered interest in a repatriation flight because they can't afford or wish to pay up to 10,000 Aussie dollars for a flight - As an example, there are nearly 100,000 Aussies who work or live in HK who would usually visit once or twice a year which obviously is not happening .

 

[Jagartrott]

It's scandalous. The Australian government totally messes up their vaccine strategy, and others pay the price:

‘It makes me sick’: families of Australians stranded overseas devastated after arrivals cap slashed

Father of three-year-old citizen stuck overseas says the move wouldn’t be necessary if the vaccine rollout had been better handled

www.theguardian.com

 

[dusty red roads]

Twitter thread worth a read (no need to be signed in to read)
Talks about Israel and UK considering 3rd jabs and booster shots especially to immune-compromised and some elderly as it raises efficiacy:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1411534742718124032

View: https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1411534742718124032


A couple quotes:
"Israel Health Ministry is meeting to debate offering 3rd Pfizer vaccine doses to people with weakened immune systems. Some health officials see enough data to do so. "

"As of Friday afternoon, 27 people in Israel were in serious condition from the virus. Six of the serious cases this week were of vaccinated individuals. All were over 60, with previous medical issues."

"UK meanwhile announced it will start 3rd dose in Sept … it’s seeing hospitalizations growing despite large numbers vaccinated. Most are in unvaccinated but many in elderly or immunocompromised vaccinated"

 

[movingtarget]

Delta variant will cause US Covid surges, Fauci says, as poll reveals vaccine resistance

Biden adviser says disparities will lead to ‘two types of America’ as poll shows only 45% of Republicans have received one shot

www.theguardian.com

 

[Unchained]

I read that less than 8% of the population is fully vaccinated..so I am feeling pretty much like the United States is in a bubble..

 

[dusty red roads]

This article points to vaccinated people being able to still spread the virus. I've previously read that vaxed people would be less infectious, however there are obviously still super spreaders.

Officials to weigh reimposing some virus restrictions as Delta variant spreads

75 pupils contract COVID-19 from a vaccinated person at school party in Tel Aviv; former Health Ministry deputy director calls to bring back 'Green Pass' system

www.timesofisrael.com

"This week, at least 75 high school pupils were confirmed to have contracted the virus at a Tel Aviv end-of-year party, after a student was infected by a vaccinated relative. That relative contracted the virus from another vaccinated individual who had recently returned from London, according to Channel 13 news."

 

[Unchained]

NOT SCIENTIFIC
2 of 6 patients admitted to our local hospital..all over 65..had received the Chinese vaccine..cases in Southern Baja have beds full near La Paz and Los Cabos. ( Cabo San Lucas)..also Mexicali has had a steady increase in hospital admissions in the last 2 weeks.
Today US Canada announced partial border opening for fully vaccinated Canadians..small step to eliminate 2 weeks of quarantine

 

[jmdirt]

This article points to vaccinated people being able to still spread the virus. I've previously read that vaxed people would be less infectious, however there are obviously still super spreaders.

Officials to weigh reimposing some virus restrictions as Delta variant spreads

75 pupils contract COVID-19 from a vaccinated person at school party in Tel Aviv; former Health Ministry deputy director calls to bring back 'Green Pass' system

www.timesofisrael.com

"This week, at least 75 high school pupils were confirmed to have contracted the virus at a Tel Aviv end-of-year party, after a student was infected by a vaccinated relative. That relative contracted the virus from another vaccinated individual who had recently returned from London, according to Channel 13 news."

-vaccinated people are (much) less likely to get infected.
-vaccinated people who do contract SC2 are (much) less likely to infect others.
--reduced viral load
-multiple factors affect the above (especially individual immune systems).

-I'm 'wondering' about the chain of infection there.
-how many of the 75 students were vaccinated?
-when were they vaccinated?
-what vaccine? Was it all Pfizer?

If it all falls exactly in line with the report, it defies the odds.

 

[Cookster15]

It's scandalous. The Australian government totally messes up their vaccine strategy, and others pay the price:

‘It makes me sick’: families of Australians stranded overseas devastated after arrivals cap slashed

Father of three-year-old citizen stuck overseas says the move wouldn’t be necessary if the vaccine rollout had been better handled

www.theguardian.com

Not sure about 'scandalous' but the reason for all this relates to the "P" word. This tragedy of this story is driven by politicization of medical professionals, public fear of the delta variant and lack of supply.

When this started one poster accused Australia of a "small village mentality" that effectively stopped the virus in its tracks largely thanks to Australia's isolation and ability to control the spread at international borders. At that time that poster was wrong. But now he is right. But the "P" word is why too many Australians support border restrictions - difficult to discuss here because of the rules.

At least we have one state premier saying borders should be opened to allow these people to return. But there is also a media driven fear of the vaccines in Australia. Its all connected to the plight of this man and his daughter.

 

[yaco]

Not sure about 'scandalous' but the reason for all this relates to the "P" word. This tragedy of this story is driven by politicization of medical professionals, public fear of the delta variant and lack of supply.

When this started one poster accused Australia of a "small village mentality" that effectively stopped the virus in its tracks largely thanks to Australia's isolation and ability to control the spread at international borders. At that time that poster was wrong. But now he is right. But the "P" word is why too many Australians support border restrictions - difficult to discuss here because of the rules.

At least we have one state premier saying borders should be opened to allow these people to return. But there is also a media driven fear of the vaccines in Australia. Its all connected to the plight of this man and his daughter.

Logically the increased vaccination rates throughout the world should result in Australia increasing their cap on arrivals into the country while targetting vaccinated returnees, but in reality the authorities have halved the cap for the next six months.

I live in Hong Kong which has stricter quarantine controls than in Australia, along with fairly much closed borders. They have never implemented a lockdown, instead relying on the tweaking of restrictions while citizens/residents have never been banned from leaving the city. HK is now reducing quarantine for vaccinated returnees to generally seven days, though I believe like in Canada there should be no quarantine BUT for now Australia is still doing 14 days quarantine vaccinated or not. Yes there is discussion about home quarantine for vaccinated travellers but this has been mooted for at least 3 months with no movement at the station.

Finally, IMO this Australian attitude towards COVID can be traced back to the widespread public support for the Australian Government's policy on ' boat refugees ' in which many in the community were mean spirited and uncaring.

 

[Cookster15]

Finally, IMO this Australian attitude towards COVID can be traced back to the widespread public support for the Australian Government's policy on ' boat refugees ' in which many in the community were mean spirited and uncaring.

Your opinion is inaccurate and and very unfair - putting it mildly. The two are not linked. Australia is a very caring and tolerant nation. That's why we are a multicultural and immigration success. Of course we are not perfect. But human beings are not perfect either.

 

[jmdirt]

Reporter interviewing people to see who is vaccinated, and if not why:
-Reporter: Are you vaccinated?
-Person on the sidewalk: No.
-R: Can I ask why?
-P: I don't want them sticking a needle into my body (note: this person has full 'sleeve' arm tattoos, chest, and neck tattoos...I know, different needles/different depth).
-P: People can't see the virus, but they are scared of it. I'm scared, well not scared, of the needle because I can see it.
-P: God has a plan for all of us and if he wants me to get covid, I'll get covid.
--(he established the importance of things that you CAN see over things you CAN'T see yet he dismisses scientists who he can see over god who he can't see).

I left out some of his answer because it got pretty rambley in the middle and almost incoherent at the end, but the way he was rattling off the pieces, it definitely sounded like something that was prepared (maybe by him, maybe by someone else).

I just don't understand. Is it all part of mental health issues? I really do think that some anti vaxers (like my neighbor) are just anti everything, and if you did a little reverse psychology and told them not to get vaccinated, they might.

 

[dusty red roads]

-vaccinated people are (much) less likely to get infected.
-vaccinated people who do contract SC2 are (much) less likely to infect others.
--reduced viral load
-multiple factors affect the above (especially individual immune systems).

-I'm 'wondering' about the chain of infection there.
-how many of the 75 students were vaccinated?
-when were they vaccinated?
-what vaccine? Was it all Pfizer?

If it all falls exactly in line with the report, it defies the odds.

I agree with your points, and to reply to some of your them:

The article - to me - implies the school pupils weren't vaccinated by mentioning the one vaccinated person who passed the virus on. My take on it is it's not impossible that there are occasionally going to be vaccinated people who are able to pass it on, though in general I'm in agreement with you on lower viral loads, as I've read a lot of articles saying the same thing. As you mention - it's possible the vaccinated person was more immune-compromised than normal. It's also quite possible the vaccinated person passed it onto one (or only a few) other (unvaccinated) person/s and that set off the chain. As you say we don't know how that happened, they could have been maskless (since Israelis had stopped wearing their masks after a large part of the pop. were jabbed) and in close contact in an unventilated area for a long period of time, etc.

And, as you say we don't know when the vaccinated people (including the relative that passed it on) had been jabbed.

Israel uses Pfizer only, and began their jabs a lot earlier than a lot of countries. In fact they're currently trying to do a swap of excess Pfizer that will expire soonish to somewhere it's needed right now, in exchange for a future batch of later expiring ones.

 

[dusty red roads]

Here's an article I just saw on the latest in Israel, might answer some more questions:

Pfizer vaccine halts severe illness in Israel as Delta variant spreads

The vaccine appears to be less effective in halting the spread of the Delta strain of the virus, although it is shielding against severe illness, according to data from Israel’s government.

www.smh.com.au

 

[yaco]

Your opinion is inaccurate and and very unfair - putting it mildly. The two are not linked. Australia is a very caring and tolerant nation. That's why we are a multicultural and immigration success. Of course we are not perfect. But human beings are not perfect either.

At the end of the day, Australia is locking out it's citizens/residents from returning to the country - Where is the public uproar about this policy ? No other country in the world is treating it's people with such contempt and cruelness ! As an Aussie living overseas you view the situation with a different lens - My previous post about ' boat people' is relevant because it shows a hardness and lack of compassion from the community, and it was also an factor in the result of a federal election.

 

[Cookster15]

At the end of the day, Australia is locking out it's citizens/residents from returning to the country - Where is the public uproar about this policy ? No other country in the world is treating it's people with such contempt and cruelness ! As an Aussie living overseas you view the situation with a different lens - My previous post about ' boat people' is relevant because it shows a hardness and lack of compassion from the community, and it was also an factor in the result of a federal election.

I agree with you that Australia should open up. There is uproar. State premiers who can’t handle even a handful of cases are stoking this sentiment. But even today the Victorian premier had just announced cancellation of the Australian Grand Prix for the second year running. This time the Victorian Premier says he can’t open up until the vaccine is widely administered. In other words he is finger pointing. It’s getting embarrassing now - but it wasn’t when you first raised the matter and the virus was running rampant in most countries that Australia had citizens returning from.

But your comment about boat people is irrelevant and purely your opinion. You are not informed. Australia has a very generous refugee policy but outsourcing refugee policy to people smugglers and their cashed up clients who want to jump queues or economic country shopping is unacceptable.

 

[movingtarget]

Covid-19 Australia: Strain more transmissible than Delta hits Australia

The world’s most transmissible Covid-19 strain has found its way into Australia – with worrying research revealing it may be even more infectious than the Delta variant.

news.com.au

 

[yaco]

I agree with you that Australia should open up. There is uproar. State premiers who can’t handle even a handful of cases are stoking this sentiment. But even today the Victorian premier had just announced cancellation of the Australian Grand Prix for the second year running. This time the Victorian Premier says he can’t open up until the vaccine is widely administered. In other words he is finger pointing. It’s getting embarrassing now - but it wasn’t when you first raised the matter and the virus was running rampant in most countries that Australia had citizens returning from.

But your comment about boat people is irrelevant and purely your opinion. You are not informed. Australia has a very generous refugee policy but outsourcing refugee policy to people smugglers and their cashed up clients who want to jump queues or economic country shopping is unacceptable.

I am Australian expat, so I am reasonably weIl informed. I look at 'boat people' differently - Many would fail the 'refugee test' because they are actually 'economic refugees' but it should be seen as a positive that people want to live in Australia.

I doubt that the TDU in January will happen, while it's likely the Aussie Open will be outsourced to Dubai and it is unlikely there will be a F1 in Melbourne in March - I even have doubts on the Ashes series and possibly the world cycling Championship in September 2022.

Finally, I stress that Australia is the only western democracy that has banned citizens from leaving the country since March 2020 ( except for travel exemptions ) while more importantly their policy regarding travel caps on returning residents/citizens have precluded people from entering their country - No other country in the world is actively promoting the stopping of citizens from entering their country - Sadly this has support from the majority of the population - So how could you not think Australian's are cold, heartless people

 

[yaco]

Covid-19 Australia: Strain more transmissible than Delta hits Australia

The world’s most transmissible Covid-19 strain has found its way into Australia – with worrying research revealing it may be even more infectious than the Delta variant.

news.com.au

Another typically rubbish article from News. One day it's how dangerous COVID is in the community, while the next day its criticism that health authorities are too cautious with restrictions, then the next time it's victim blaming and the cycle continues.

 

[jmdirt]

Another typically rubbish article from News. One day it's how dangerous COVID is in the community, while the next day its criticism that health authorities are too cautious with restrictions, then the next time it's victim blaming and the cycle continues.

Recently I have been thinking how much 2016-2021 has changed the news in the USA. There has been sensationalism, bias, etc. for as long as I can remember, but the news has really changed in the last five years here IMO. The president and everything that surrounded him 'blew it up', and then SARS-CoV-2 compounded it. I can see how people get confused, angry, disenfranchised, polarized, etc. It takes a lot of energy that people don't have or don't want to expend.

There is a lot to discuss about this, but most of it would fall outside of the forum rules...

EDIT: Just to be clear, I'm not saying that the news 'all bad', just different.

 

[movingtarget]

I am Australian expat, so I am reasonably weIl informed. I look at 'boat people' differently - Many would fail the 'refugee test' because they are actually 'economic refugees' but it should be seen as a positive that people want to live in Australia.

I doubt that the TDU in January will happen, while it's likely the Aussie Open will be outsourced to Dubai and it is unlikely there will be a F1 in Melbourne in March - I even have doubts on the Ashes series and possibly the world cycling Championship in September 2022.

Finally, I stress that Australia is the only western democracy that has banned citizens from leaving the country since March 2020 ( except for travel exemptions ) while more importantly their policy regarding travel caps on returning residents/citizens have precluded people from entering their country - No other country in the world is actively promoting the stopping of citizens from entering their country - Sadly this has support from the majority of the population - So how could you not think Australian's are cold, heartless people

The cycling championships are not on for another 14 months, I don't see why that would be threatened unless things go completely pear shaped which looks unlikely at the moment but Cadel Evans said the Cadel Evans road race in February hadn't been decided on just yet and the main sticking point was the quarantine and of course the decision to go ahead will be up to the Victorian govt and the Federal govt.

 

[yaco]

The cycling championships are not on for another 14 months, I don't see why that would be threatened unless things go completely pear shaped which looks unlikely at the moment but Cadel Evans said the Cadel Evans road race in February hadn't been decided on just yet and the main sticking point was the quarantine and of course the decision to go ahead will be up to the Victorian govt and the Federal govt.

I know for a fact that NOW the health authorities are demanding a fourteen day quarantine which will not wash with an international sporting calendar, especially seeing these athletes will be vaccinated - Many parts of the world have conducted international sporting events in bubbles for nearly 12 months without any issues or danger to the community - We can only hope.