Coronavirus: How dangerous a threat?

[jmdirt]

The smart thing to do would be clear and repetitive public messaging that vaccination reduces your likelihood of going to hospital or dying. TV, Radio, Web, social media. Then nobody can argue with you.

But who told the public a while back that vaccination would stop transmission - Experts I suppose? Complain about them?

But if people refuse vaccines and end up in hospital or worse they can't say they were not warned.

It is somewhat subjective but in my opinion labeling people "anti-vaxxer" is name calling - counter productive. The right way is don't label them at all. They are members of society just like you and me. We need to bring them with us.

As you might recall I am vaccinated so regard myself as a fair judge. Yes what might have worked to curb transmission with prior variants was no longer relevant with omicron. But we need to adjust our language and respond the messaging much faster to evolving variants. But when you "p" people off- guess what, they won't do what you want. Human nature IMO.

Your aren't being realistic, IMO. To the original statement though, someone claimed that forum members said that people wouldn't get SC2 if they were vaccinated. I only remember one person making that claim over and over, but they are proudly not vaccinated. The people in 'power' who are opposed to vaccines are the ones making statements that the vaccine isn't working because people are still contracting SC2. I've never heard a vaccinated person make similar claims.

Also, something that is being ignored (including by me in my previous post), is that vaccines have curbed transmission even with Omicron, just not nearly to the level of other variants. This is likely as much to do with the location of infection as much as the variant itself (upper vs lower respiratory). Not only is there data to support reduced transmission, almost everyone can point to anecdotal examples of one person in a vaccinated household getting Omicron, but no one else in the house getting it. While anecdotal examples aren't science by any means, what is keeping people from getting Omicron from their family? Reduced viral load and reduced transmission along with immune systems more ready/able to deal with it.

 

[dusty red roads]

Good news for future treatments of this nature

Study: Blood oxygenation therapy helps hospitalized patients with severe COVID-19 - UPI.com

Patients with severe COVID-19 treated with blood oxygenation therapy may see significant lung recovery and return to normal lives with "meaningful" long-term health outcomes.

www.upi.com

 

[Cookster15]

Not only is there data to support reduced transmission, almost everyone can point to anecdotal examples of one person in a vaccinated household getting Omicron, but no one else in the house getting it. While anecdotal examples aren't science by any means, what is keeping people from getting Omicron from their family? Reduced viral load and reduced transmission along with immune systems more ready/able to deal with it.

On the bold, pretty sure that data related to earlier variants which I don't doubt? Plus whilst I don't doubt your anecdotal experience - there are always exceptions. And you only know you have antibodies if you return a positive test. But we know even a negative PCR test doesn't prove you don't have antibodies. But with Omicron cases exploded everywhere when we already had double vaccination rates over 90%. I simply cannot believe all those cases were only in the unvaccinated.

In my original claim I wasn't mocking forum members. I was referring to public statements by medical experts and/or epidemiologists - these people claimed vaccination would stop transmission. But the omicron case explosions replicated in many countries together with the timing (after high vaccination rates) debunked the possibility these were mainly unvaccinated cases.

As for being "unrealistic" - we are referring to public messaging. I disagree, it was misleading public messaging that led to the public misconception that transmission would stop transmission. Then we had omicron.

 

[jmdirt]

On the bold, pretty sure that data related to earlier variants which I don't doubt? Plus whilst I don't doubt your anecdotal experience - there are always exceptions. And you only know you have antibodies if you return a positive test. But we know even a negative PCR test doesn't prove you don't have antibodies. But with Omicron cases exploded everywhere when we already had double vaccination rates over 90%. I simply cannot believe all those cases were only in the unvaccinated.

In my original claim I wasn't mocking forum members. I was referring to public statements by medical experts and/or epidemiologists - these people claimed vaccination would stop transmission. But the omicron case explosions replicated in many countries together with the timing (after high vaccination rates) debunked the possibility these were mainly unvaccinated cases.

As for being "unrealistic" - we are referring to public messaging. I disagree, it was misleading public messaging that led to the public misconception that transmission would stop transmission. Then we had omicron.

There is data for all variants. I think that you are scrambling things here so I'm not even sure how to reply really. Vaccines reduced transmission in all variants, just much less in Omicron. That doesn't mean that vaccinated people didn't contract it, those are two separate data points. Also, transmission is from reservoir to host. The main 'reduction' in transmission is when the reservoir is vaccinated* (shedding less pathogen). Obviously, if the host is vaccinated it helps their immune system fight the pathogen. Neither of those completely eliminate the chance of infection (multitude of factors).
EDIT: * or has immunity from prior infection.

I meant that you were being unrealistic that if people would just be nice, then people would come along. I agree, the public messaging has been horrendous at best.

I don't think that you were the one who made the claim that I'm referring to.

 

[Ultrairon]

Vaccines can stop all known variants. You are wrong. But seeing you post antivax talking points is all to common.

Vaccines can stop all known variants. You were wrong then and are FOS now.

The word stop is used.

 

[Cookster15]

There is data for all variants. I think that you are scrambling things here so I'm not even sure how to reply really. Vaccines reduced transmission in all variants, just much less in Omicron. That doesn't mean that vaccinated people didn't contract it, those are two separate data points.

The bold is the crucial point you downplay. The public messaging led to misconception that vaccination would stop transmission. Please do not deny this was being claimed by experts because it was. Plus, also on the messaging, labeling and shaming people never works.

 

[djpbaltimore]

The word stop is used.

Which is supported by data. If we had universal vaccination, there would be less transmission. No one is suggesting otherwise. That doesn't mean 100% decrease, but vaccines decrease transmission against all known variants.

Most of us gave up on that false promise months ago. You are right that name calling and stereotyping people only hardens resolve and is counter productive.

It is not a false promise. Vaccines reduce transmission in addition to protecting on an individual basis.

I am surprised no one in Europe has commented on this. I posted the UK data earlier, but the reversal is not limited to the UK. So far, what happens in Europe usually happens in the US a month later. But the US has a lot of Omicron immunity already. It is not shown but Australia is also building another omicron wave too.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1502340845986451456

View: https://mobile.twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1502340845986451456

 

[djpbaltimore]

The bold is the crucial point you downplay. The public messaging led to misconception that vaccination would stop transmission. Please do not deny this was being claimed by experts because it was. Plus, also on the messaging, labeling and shaming people never works.

Feel free to quote people saying it would stop all transmission. Like when you falsely said that I claimed hospitals would be over run, you are not accurately conveying the message that public health experts were actually saying.

 

[jmdirt]

The bold is the crucial point you downplay. The public messaging led to misconception that vaccination would stop transmission. Please do not deny this was being claimed by experts because it was. Plus, also on the messaging, labeling and shaming people never works.

I think some of the disconnect in this exchange is that I was talking about contracting SC2, but you are talking about transmission and messaging.

To the above, how am I downplaying it? Omicron changed many things almost completely.

A far as messaging goes, I have almost no knowledge of the messaging you got down under. In the USA, messaging was a disaster in 2020 (for MANY reasons, not the least of which was this being a novel virus). By the mid 2020 I was getting my 'messaging' from epidemiologists so the only public messaging I was getting was on this forum, a few random news blips, and an occasional public service commercial. In 2021 the scientific consensus was that vaccines greatly reduce transmission and disease severity. When Omicron hit the radar in Africa the message was clear that this was going to change the 'greatly reduce transmission' part. I didn't ever read/hear an epidemiologist say that vaccines would stop the transmission of Omicron, in fact quite the opposite, many warned that vaccines would be less effective. So yes, I will claim that you are not remembering correctly or you were hearing different information than I was. Honestly, I can't see how you could have missed the warnings when it was blasting through Africa.

 

[Ultrairon]

Which is supported by data. If we had universal vaccination, there would be less transmission. No one is suggesting otherwise. That doesn't mean 100% decrease, but vaccines decrease transmission against all known variants.

It is not a false promise. Vaccines reduce transmission in addition to protecting on an individual basis.

I am surprised no one in Europe has commented on this. I posted the UK data earlier, but the reversal is not limited to the UK. So far, what happens in Europe usually happens in the US a month later. But the US has a lot of Omicron immunity already. It is not shown but Australia is also building another omicron wave too.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1502340845986451456

View: https://mobile.twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1502340845986451456

You said stop all known variants just like popular media figures , celebrity's and politicians did. Now you say it will Decrease. So sad you can't admit that it was the wrong way to go about the message.

 

[Ultrairon]

Feel free to quote people saying it would stop all transmission. Like when you falsely said that I claimed hospitals would be over run, you are not accurately conveying the message that public health experts were actually saying.

I gave you your own post (words) and you ask them for a quote of people saying it would stop all transmission.

View: https://youtu.be/2e-_1HQb7LA?t=34

STOPS

 

[Ultrairon]

Which is supported by data. If we had universal vaccination, there would be less transmission. No one is suggesting otherwise. That doesn't mean 100% decrease, but vaccines decrease transmission against all known variants.

It is not a false promise. Vaccines reduce transmission in addition to protecting on an individual basis.

I am surprised no one in Europe has commented on this. I posted the UK data earlier, but the reversal is not limited to the UK. So far, what happens in Europe usually happens in the US a month later. But the US has a lot of Omicron immunity already. It is not shown but Australia is also building another omicron wave too.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1502340845986451456

View: https://mobile.twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1502340845986451456

NO ONE CARES anymore about COVID. Its over the fake science geeks,fake media doctors TV time is over. Onto the next made up news cycle.
People the normal public realize life goes on. Maybe this time they will not allow needless lock downs and mask hysteria to take over.

 

[djpbaltimore]

NO ONE CARES anymore about COVID. Its over the fake science geeks,fake media doctors TV time is over. Onto the next made up news cycle.
People the normal public realize life goes on. Maybe this time they will not allow needless lock downs and mask hysteria to take over.

Yet you still post here. I hope your family members never get hospitalized like my father did.

I gave you your own post (words) and you ask them for a quote of people saying it would stop all transmission.

View: https://youtu.be/2e-_1HQb7LA?t=34

STOPS

and what I said was accurate. I know that makes you mad, but vaccines can stop all known variants. If you are getting your health news from cable news anchors, that is a 'you' problem.

 

[Koronin]

At this point Covid appears, to me, to be becoming both seasonal and endemic at this point. Now this is likely due to vaccines and who knows how many have had it and developed some ability to fight it off. It's not over, and will never be over, same as the flu. Also at this point, come flu season, regardless I'm going to keep wearing a mask. I bought a few and they are certainly a deterrent to getting that.

 

[Ultrairon]

Yet you still post here. I hope your family members never get hospitalized like my father did.
and what I said was accurate. I know that makes you mad, but vaccines can stop all known variants. If you are getting your health news from cable news anchors, that is a 'you' problem.

Does not make me mad. You said show you where someone says vax stops the virus. I demonstrated your own posts. I also gave you an example of a idiot on the news.

 

[Oldermanish]

Your aren't being realistic, IMO. To the original statement though, someone claimed that forum members said that people wouldn't get SC2 if they were vaccinated. I only remember one person making that claim over and over, but they are proudly not vaccinated. The people in 'power' who are opposed to vaccines are the ones making statements that the vaccine isn't working because people are still contracting SC2. I've never heard a vaccinated person make similar claims.

Also, something that is being ignored (including by me in my previous post), is that vaccines have curbed transmission even with Omicron, just not nearly to the level of other variants. This is likely as much to do with the location of infection as much as the variant itself (upper vs lower respiratory). Not only is there data to support reduced transmission, almost everyone can point to anecdotal examples of one person in a vaccinated household getting Omicron, but no one else in the house getting it. While anecdotal examples aren't science by any means, what is keeping people from getting Omicron from their family? Reduced viral load and reduced transmission along with immune systems more ready/able to deal with it.

I'm one of your examples: vaccinated and exposed to an Omicron positive family member who is also vaccinated. I have not tested positive nor had any symptoms. The other family member has had mild symptoms and we can likely attribute that to the vaccinated status. This makes 4 family members afflicted with fairly light effects and apparent full recovery, all vaccinated.
Today I had a random discussion with a 22 yo man who, unvaccinated, got Omicron 3 months ago and still lacks sense of smell. He says he has no other lingering side effects at this point.
As it stands we have hit a level where almost no one really wants to take precautions any longer except those that have serious immune compromises. I'd wear a mask to protect someone in that circumstance willingly although it has become practically tough to know when that is appropriate without warning.

 

[djpbaltimore]

Does not make me mad. You said show you where someone says vax stops the virus. I demonstrated your own posts. I also gave you an example of a idiot on the news.

The vaccine can stop all known variants. 'Can' being the word that you like to elide. For instance, Pogi can win the TDF this summer. That doesn't mean 100%.

 

[Oldermanish]

The vaccine can stop all known variants. 'Can' being the word that you like to elide. For instance, Pogi can win the TDF this summer. That doesn't mean 100%.

The vaccine "can" stop...implies it has the ability to do so. In the context of most discussions that ability is almost always linked to social distancing, mask measures where recommended, etc.
Kinda like you "can" avoid being burned by fire. You "can" distance from it or wear a fire retardant suit. In the end it suggests that we "can" avoid illness and reduce the impact by not being stupid. Common sense is hard to introduce to a predisposed mind.

 

[Nomad]

What the heck is going on here? Things seemed pretty good during the Olympics (so we were told anyway) and now China sounds the alarm?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1502219177850900480

View: https://mobile.twitter.com/PTI_News/status/1502219177850900480

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cbsnews.com/amp/news/china-covid-lockdown-changchu-9-million-residents/

China is reporting it's vaccination rate at a very good 87% - so, again what's going on here?

Google Search

Crazy world we live in right now. It's bad enough with the Russian - Ukraine war & now the resurgence of Covid in China prompting a major lockdown. These are the worst times I've ever seen.

 

[Unchained]

Cases way down in Ensenada,Baja California,Mexico..only 8-10 Covid beds needed per weekend..and as if Russia and China couldn't get more news coverage..lots of older Mexican patients who are admitted were vaccinated with Chinese and Russian vaccines..but I also know repeat offenders that had 2,3 Pfizer..so again my head holds a pretty limited data set

 

[Cookster15]

Feel free to quote people saying it would stop all transmission. Like when you falsely said that I claimed hospitals would be over run, you are not accurately conveying the message that public health experts were actually saying.

I did not falsely claim anything. You inferred that our hospitals might be overrun don’t deny it. As for public messaging on transmission you are being disingenuous. I don’t deny vaccination slows transmission in earlier variants. But if it slowed transmission at all in omicron it is insignificant. What you deny is the experts have been learning since this started. Public health experts developed modelling which has proven to be wildly pessimistic. They are not infallible. And as I write to you hospitalisations in NSW Australia have bottomed out despite rising cases. Bad news for the catastrophists great news for everyone else.

 

[djpbaltimore]

I did not falsely claim anything. You inferred that our hospitals might be overrun don’t deny it. As for public messaging on transmission you are being disingenuous. I don’t deny vaccination slows transmission in earlier variants. But if it slowed transmission at all in omicron it is insignificant. What you deny is the experts have been learning since this started. Public health experts developed modelling which has proven to be wildly pessimistic. They are not infallible. And as I write to you hospitalisations in NSW Australia have bottomed out despite rising cases. Bad news for the catastrophists great news for everyone else.

You are seriously deluded if you believe that. You read what you wanted to read even if it is divorced from reality.

Vaccinated people in NYC had significantly fewer infections during the omicron wave in the US. That will decrease transmission. By all evidence, vaccination reduces transmission of all known variants. Period.

I remember when the models suggested a million people could die in the US. Nobody believed it and now we are just passing that milestone.

 

[Cookster15]

You are seriously deluded if you believe that. You read what you wanted to read even if it is divorced from reality.

Vaccinated people in NYC had significantly fewer infections during the omicron wave in the US. That will decrease transmission. By all evidence, vaccination reduces transmission of all known variants. Period.

I remember when the models suggested a million people could die in the US. Nobody believed it and now we are just passing that milestone.

Wow, no need to get nasty!

But firstly your comments on vaccination and NYC - without a timeframe it doesn’t mean much. Are we talking omicron or earlier variants? Feel free to post data on effect of vaccines on transmitting omicron. I am not interested in studies on earlier variants.

The fact is Australia was way over 90% double vaccinated when omicron took off. Vaccination did very little to slow transmission. No way did hundreds of thousands of cases come from the relative few on the population who remained unvaccinated.

But you do seem to have a habit of being a Covid catstrophist. It is a pattern. I am not “deluded” when you made those comments on Australia after we opened up I thought “we will see”. You also made comments that Australia was vulnerable due to low community exposure. Well the data shows you were way off. Your comments also contradicted some experts here like Dr Nick Coatesworth who you can search for yourself.

As for models we had the Doherty model which was adopted as the blueprint by state governments. Well Doherty was wildly pessimistic and nobody mentions it now. Experts? Hmmm.

So now I am reminding you since you decided to get nasty. I also notice you never admit the data I have posted in my part of the world is promising. It is! I have posted that regularly - never comment or even a “like” from you? There are other regular posters here who don’t always agree with me but you could learn from.

 

[Koronin]

I'm one of your examples: vaccinated and exposed to an Omicron positive family member who is also vaccinated. I have not tested positive nor had any symptoms. The other family member has had mild symptoms and we can likely attribute that to the vaccinated status. This makes 4 family members afflicted with fairly light effects and apparent full recovery, all vaccinated.
Today I had a random discussion with a 22 yo man who, unvaccinated, got Omicron 3 months ago and still lacks sense of smell. He says he has no other lingering side effects at this point.
As it stands we have hit a level where almost no one really wants to take precautions any longer except those that have serious immune compromises. I'd wear a mask to protect someone in that circumstance willingly although it has become practically tough to know when that is appropriate without warning.

This is a main reason I will likely be wearing a mask at least until next spring. My husband had his last Chemo treatment this past Friday. However, he's still immune compromised for awhile. He's had 3 doses of the Pfizer vaccine, plus the preventative (which the hospital has very good data on that it works) and will be getting a 4th dose in 5 months. Yes a 4th dose of the vaccine is recommended for at least those who have gone through Chemo 6 months after their final treatment. I want to ensure he's had time to build up his immune system again. However, it would be hard for someone else to know if there is someone in a store or something who is immune compromised. Now, outside (even at an event) I'd feel fairly safe without a mask, like say even going to a baseball game this summer.

 

[movingtarget]

The Covid cloud is starting to lift – but two years on, its legacy of grief lingers

US could be turning the corner on the pandemic, but not if you are one of the many people who has lost loved ones or is suffering post-coronavirus symptoms known as long Covid

www.theguardian.com