Could Quintana have won La Vuelta had he not crashed?

[LaFlorecita]

Well, he would've won the whole thing, beating both.

I guess since you are an independent observer you can state that as a fact.

 

[TomekA]

Without both crashes he would have won and I'm Contador fan

 

[del1962]

In spite of today's incident, I had to ask you folks about it, in a fair & constructive (hopefully) view. Was he up to the task of beating Contador & Froome?

Please Opine

If you mean without the first TT crash, the answer is yes

If you mean with the TT crash but not the second crash, I would say no.

 

[del1962]

No it wasn't, the OP, if I read him correctly was asking an opinion before NQ's crashes. I voted yes.

Hope you have your new currency sorted

 

[Stromeon]

Of course, Nairo can always win

Seriously though, the wording of the question is 'Could he have won' rather than 'Would he have won' so I don't really see how you could vote no.

 

[MBotero]

I don't think would have won it,as shown by Froome in 2012 is hard to beat the Spanish trio on their home GT.Media talking about Quintana as the main favorite to win La Vuelta was puzzling for me at least.He was having the same chances to win La Vuelta as Contador,Valverde,Purito or Froome.

 

[Dr. Juice]

Quintana would've attacked, Contador on his wheel using this to his advantage to distance Valverde. Then Alberto would have attacked like in Valdelinares in the final, explosive enough to distance Nairito.

 

[murali]

voting for Betancur option

a) bcoz it is the last one.

b) i found it funny

c) while vino option is for optimism, betancur is just plain stupidity.
i mean, hoping for nairo win after the TT is just too much. if he hadnt crashed, he would hav been 40 sec down in GC.


if he hadn't crashed in ITT, then things would have been different.

 

[orangey]

Nope, not a chance. Contador would smash him both in pure strength and tactics. Plus, he's got internal conflicts that would've gotten worse with Valverde, since he's clearly in top shape too and has an ego that won't shake off. Quintana doesn't have the experience yet, he needs to learn more.

 

[9000ft]

Maybe. Maybe not. Who knows? Anything can happen in a GT.

 

[Moose McKnuckles]

Nope, not a chance. Contador would smash him both in pure strength and tactics. Plus, he's got internal conflicts that would've gotten worse with Valverde, since he's clearly in top shape too and has an ego that won't shake off. Quintana doesn't have the experience yet, he needs to learn more.

Quintana has won as many GTs as Valverde.

 

[Escarabajo]

Nope, not a chance. Contador would smash him both in pure strength and tactics. Plus, he's got internal conflicts that would've gotten worse with Valverde, since he's clearly in top shape too and has an ego that won't shake off. Quintana doesn't have the experience yet, he needs to learn more.

Have you watched cycling in the last 2 years?

LOL

 

[cineteq]

Quintana doesn't have the experience yet, he needs to learn more.

If anything, he's learned the hard way he needs to focus on the road 100% of the time. Other than that, 2014 Giro champion and 2nd in 2013 TdF, in case you missed it.

 

[hiero2]

In spite of today's incident, I had to ask you folks about it, in a fair & constructive (hopefully) view. Was he up to the task of beating Contador & Froome?

Please Opine

I wouldn't say nobody cares - don't think that is acccurate. But who knows? Nobody knows, that we can say for sure! I think he would have been up there. Certainly top 5. Maybe top 3, maybe numero uno. We will get to see him take another crack at it, for sure.

 

[GoodTimes]

Maybe. Maybe not. Who knows? Anything can happen in a GT.

This.

The question is dumb. Obv he *could* win. A better question would have been, at what odds would you have bet on Quintana to win the vuelta, had he not crashed out. Or something like that....

 

[Walkman]

Quintana would've attacked, Contador on his wheel using this to his advantage to distance Valverde. Then Alberto would have attacked like in Valdelinares in the final, explosive enough to distance Nairito.

Unlikely.

piti would have attacked over and over in order to make Contador respond and then, when Contador was tried, Nairo would attack. Would have been fun to see.

 

[henriklarsen]

Of course, Nairo can always win

Seriously though, the wording of the question is 'Could he have won' rather than 'Would he have won' so I don't really see how you could vote no.

The fact is that before the ITT on stage 10 Quintana only had a 3 sec lead on Contadore. Quintana had a 19 sec lead from the TTT (stage 1), which Contadore reduced to 3 sec on stage 6. Had it not been for the TTT on stage 1, Contadore may very well have supassed Quintana on stage 6.

An interesting way of looking at this could be to use Aru as a benchmark. (I know – not exactly science – but fun)

In the Giro 2014 Quintana had +3:31 on Aru by stage 18. http://www.cyclograph.cc/Race/get/1...n_Time&s=18&r=Quintana_Nairo,Aru_Fabio,&z=150

Currently, after stage 18 of the Vuelta, Contadore has +3:15 on Aru (who did a great job today!)http://www.cyclograph.cc/Race/get/1...tador_Alberto,Aru_Fabio,Quintana_Nairo,&z=150

I certainly think Quintana could have won. Had he not crashed, it would surely have been a close race between him and Contadore.

 

[phanatic]

The race would have been much different. I thought he would have won, but Contador is much stronger than I anticipated.

 

[ILovecycling]

When I noticed this thread name again before a while, I said to myself, 'wow, I voted yes but I wasnt sure at all (like for 50.1%) but now with AC and Froome bad form, I think it would have been really possible to do a Giro-Vuelta double for Nairito.'

I think Valverde knew he is much better than him. It would have been tight, and huge batttle.
The sure thing is he woulda been best climber in 3rd week, question is how much time he would make it on them. (maybe couple of seconds, or minute or more...)