I'm not saying that I have the new Sagan but I am petty sure someone has him and I would be very surprised not to see that person on the podium.
And even a Keukeleire (about 500 points increase) will turn out more profitable than a Deignan (even if he repeats his 2009 Vuelta, which he won't) or a Vande Velde.
And youngsters scoring 500 points increase is not unusual : Ladagnous (2008 to 2009), R. Feillu (2006 to 2007), Porte (2009 to 2010), C. Pineau (2009 to 2010), Mollema (2009 to 2010), Pardilla (2009 to 2010), Fuglsang (2008 to 2009), Hoogerland (2008 to 2009), Le Lay (2008 to 2009), El Farès (2008 to 2009) to name a few (mostly french because I know them best).
In the meantime, how many dopers score this kind of increase : Basso, Ventoso, Petacchi, Scarponi, Vinokourov, Ricco. All were and are stars that present more guarantees than the dopers coming back this year except Schumacher (which interestingly had a 800 points increase in 2006), Rebellin (which had a 1000 points increase in 1999), Di Luca (which had 1000 points variations from one season to another quite frequently) and Pellizoti IMO.
As for youngsters scoring 1000 points increase these last years we had Haussler (2009), Boassen Hagen (2009), Greipel (2008), Ricco (2007), Kashechkin (2006), Samuel Sanchez Gonzalez (2006), history is bound to repeat itself and I insist that youngsters, not dopers will win this game.