Critérium du Dauphiné 2024, June 2 - 9

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That would be disappointing, and I don’t see how he would close that gap by the time the TDF starts.
Yea, this is my feeling. He can't be way off the pace uphill at the Dauphine and have any GC expectations at the Tour. Realistically, I'd say Evenepoel needs to show strong (not winning) climbing performances in the Dauphine, win the TT and do top 5 GC and be on the upward form trajectory, to reasonably have high GC expectations at the Tour. Anything less and it's stage hunting in July.
 
Yea, this is my feeling. He can't be way off the pace uphill at the Dauphine and have any GC expectations at the Tour. Realistically, I'd say Evenepoel needs to show strong (not winning) climbing performances in the Dauphine, win the TT and do top 5 GC and be on the upward form trajectory, to reasonably have high GC expectations at the Tour. Anything less and it's stage hunting in July.
I honestly see him stage hunting in such a state. If he can’t challenge for podium then what’s the point?
 
I honestly see him stage hunting in such a state. If he can’t challenge for podium then what’s the point?
This would be another major setback to his career, however. On the other hand, I imagine the team perfectly knows well his numbers and what numbers are necessary to fight for yellow against top Jonas and Tadej, so maybe the Tour was always going to be for just a top placing or win some big stages.
 
This would be another major setback to his career, however. On the other hand, I imagine the team perfectly knows well his numbers and what numbers are necessary to fight for yellow against top Jonas and Tadej, so maybe the Tour was always going to be for just a top placing or win some big stages.
Why a setback? He crashed and isn’t in top form. Why not going for KOM jersey and 4 TDF stages instead?
 
Why a setback? He crashed and isn’t in top form. Why not going for KOM jersey and 4 TDF stages instead?
Because it's going to be his fifth GT and 3 of them, largely owing to previous big setbacks, ended badly. That's not good for a rider who was on world-beater trajectory back in 2020 in my opinion. With such a track record, again for a rider of his talent, to only be entering his first Tour now and not be in top shape because of the crash is clearly another major career setback.
 
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I think for Evenepoel he needs to win or get 2nd behind Roglic to have a good Dauphine, and even then not lose by too much. And then they better be a lot better than the rest
I somewhat doubt Landa will be good here with the Vuelta in mind, so I think he'll have to fend for himself with Rogla on his wheel when Hindley attacks.
 
I‘ve even seen Evenepoel quoted as saying that he‘s not mainly interested in GC at the Dauphiné, but I don‘t think they should write off the Tour (which I‘ve also read from Remco fans) if he doesn‘t perform here. Of course he‘s not going to intimidate Pogačar here or look like the prime favorite for the Tour if he doesn‘t fight for the win. But he still has three weeks to work on his form before the Tour after the Dauphiné. He seems to be one of the worst in the Peloton at injury and illness recovery, though if he can write off months of racing near his top level every time.
 
I‘ve even seen Evenepoel quoted as saying that he‘s not mainly interested in GC at the Dauphiné, but I don‘t think they should write off the Tour (which I‘ve also read from Remco fans) if he doesn‘t perform here. Of course he‘s not going to intimidate Pogačar here or look like the prime favorite for the Tour if he doesn‘t fight for the win. But he still has three weeks to work on his form before the Tour after the Dauphiné. He seems to be one of the worst in the Peloton at injury and illness recovery, though if he can write off months of racing near his top level every time.

he was not in the best shape before Suisse last year

he still podiumed and likely would have won had the fatal crash not occurred. Remember, he ended up pulling the parachute on that descent, which cost him the vast majority of his time
 
I‘ve even seen Evenepoel quoted as saying that he‘s not mainly interested in GC at the Dauphiné, but I don‘t think they should write off the Tour (which I‘ve also read from Remco fans) if he doesn‘t perform here. Of course he‘s not going to intimidate Pogačar here or look like the prime favorite for the Tour if he doesn‘t fight for the win. But he still has three weeks to work on his form before the Tour after the Dauphiné. He seems to be one of the worst in the Peloton at injury and illness recovery, though if he can write off months of racing near his top level every time.
Besides that, i continue to think is not a bad idea for a top rider start the Tour a bit cooked, and then improve in the first 2 weeks to be in top shape in the last 8 racing days/last week of the Tour.

We already saw some riders doing that in the past.

That's where all will be decided. Pla d'adet, Plateau de beile, super devoluy, bonette+ isola 2000, col couilolle, and the final ITT.

The Tour will be backloaded in the last 8 days.
 
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Besides that, i continue to think is not a bad idea for a top rider start the Tour a bit cooked, and then improve in the first 2 weeks to be in top shape in the last 8 racing days/last week of the Tour.

We already saw some riders doing that in the past.

That's where all will be decided. Pla d'adet, Plateau de beile, super devoluy, bonette+ isola 2000, col couilolle, and the final ITT.

The Tour will be backloaded in the last 8 days.

You don't get fit during the Tour. If you're not fit at the beginning, you're ***. One of the rather annoying cycling myths.
 
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