Critérium du Dauphiné 2025, June 8 - 15

[Stablo]

Today was just discouraging. I’m not really a fan of Jonas, Pog or Remco in particular, but all I want is a competitive race, whether it’s the Tour or the Antwerp Port (non) Epic. I realized again today how important that is to me as someone who invests significant time and money in following the sport.

Had some big expectations for the weekend too. Some nice rivalry, attacking, throwing blows and ending on a nailbiter. From the past almost two years now, I really should have known better and not put my hopes up. I feel dissapointed and ashemed 😉was really looking forward on today, cause it's the queenstage and wifey going to visit a friend with the kids. So all was set for a private, quiet and nice afternoon spend watching the race, but now it feels just very unintresting, meh🙁

 

[Boehmand]

Playing the cat to the mice is not something new for Pog. He's done it before. Why? Ask him.

Nobody is dropping time to his primary rivals in a TT on purpose

 

[fenns]

Well, during the years Indurain was winning TdFs, the race had 105-140 km of ITTs and often 60km of TTTs.

Not saying it will happen, but bringing back very long ITTs definitely could give him a chance, without having for him to wait for Pogi or Vingo to turn 35y.o.

I don't think 140km of TT would have improved his GC position in 2024 - Jonas and Pogi are time trial monsters.

 

[houtdffan]

I think the thing that was a bit shocking to me was that it was a Cat 2 climb he did that on.

It was a cat 1. Drunk gouvenou created 2 cat 2s out of a cat 1

 

[solo80k]

Visma needs to use Jorgenson since he has good legs. Send someone up the road on Madeleine and attack with him on Croix de Fer however Pogačar will probably just follow and then drop everyone in the final climb after a teammate comes back in the descent.

There's zero chance for such move - it's just Dauphine, not the Tour itself.

 

[Netserk]

That's a fair point. I'd respond that (1) nobody expected a 40+ second beating of Pogacar in the TT, (2) the margin on the TT was so astonishing precisely because of the short distance (17km, I think?). People were saying that in a 50km TT, Pog would ship minutes.
I'm just at a loss seeing the Pog criticism on here. He's either washed when he loses or destroying the sport when he wins.

Should be easy then to dig up a few examples of the latter from after stage 1.

 

[Red Rick]

Rewatching it's pretty unreal all the damage was done within 2 minutes basically.

Any rider not named Vingegaard doing presumably 8-9W/kg trying to hang on is a complete utter degenerate.

 

[ppanther92]

Well, during the years Indurain was winning TdFs, the race had 105-140 km of ITTs and often 60km of TTTs.

Not saying it will happen, but bringing back very long ITTs definitely could give him a chance, without having for him to wait for Pogi or Vingo to turn 35y.o.

Evenepoel lost time over the two time trials over Pogacar in 2024

 

[Red Rick]

Evenepoel lost time over the two time trials over Pogacar in 2024

But the TTs need to be flat.

2 flat 60 km ITTs, a prologue and a TTT.

Maybe then Evenepoel takes enough time to survive Hautacam.

 

[QueenStagiaire]

Rewatching it's pretty unreal all the damage was done within 2 minutes basically.

Any rider not named Vingegaard doing presumably 8-9W/kg trying to hang on is a complete utter degenerate.

A bit like doing 7w/kg+ into Finestre, which all of the GC riders did for some reason. People just don‘t like to get dropped from a group.

 

[Red Rick]

A bit like doing 7w/kg+ into Finestre, which all of the GC riders did for some reason. People just don‘t like to get dropped from a group.

Starting to think cyclists think IQ is on the WADA list so they do anything to test negative for it.

 

[Didier_Bel]

Exciting race day today , or at least it should have been , until the Uber alien decided yesterday to show who is boss . I mean … not even a drip of sweat and just pedaling his way up while leaving behind him nothing but scorched earth . Nah … not so pumped up for this race day anymore .

 

[Berniece]

But the TTs need to be flat.

2 flat 60 km ITTs, a prologue and a TTT.

Maybe then Evenepoel takes enough time to survive Hautacam.

They don’t need to be flat, they just don’t need to be at the end of the 3rd week. I think Pogacar even has a chance of beating Evenepoel in a flat ITT if it’s at the end of the GT. Just like Evenepoel can win one with much more altitude meters if it’s in the beginning of the GT.

 

[Didier_Bel]

They don’t need to be flat, they just don’t need to be at the end of the 3rd week. I think Pogacar even has a chance of beating Evenepoel in a flat ITT if it’s at the end of the GT. Just like Evenepoel can win one with much more altitude meters if it’s in the beginning of the GT.

Totally flat TT … I still believe Remco has the upperhand agains anyone in any race stage . As long as his form is good . But what are we doing … trying to find hypothetical situations where Remco has a , small , chance in ever winning the TDF ? 😜🤪

 

[Didier_Bel]

Evenepoel lost time over the two time trials over Pogacar in 2024

No , hé did not . Hè won the 1st time trial and was 3rd in final time trial ( MTT ) .

 

[Berniece]

Totally flat TT … I still believe Remco has the upperhand agains anyone in any race stage . As long as his form is good . But what are we doing … trying to find hypothetical situations where Remco has a , small , chance in ever winning the TDF ? 😜🤪

I have no doubt he’ll win the TDF in his career unless he keeps crashing and just stops

 

[Didier_Bel]

I have no doubt he’ll win the TDF in his career unless he keeps crashing and just stops

I have that same hope … something in me tells me that Remco has still ample possibility to improve . But he needs to stay on his bike AND have a perfect winter preparation . Even for this TDF , I believe he will be better than last year . But I also believe the others will have improved as well so what this all means , remains to be seen .

 

[Red Rick]

So after rewatching the final climb in full and looking at some Strava files

- UAE does all the damage within the first 2 minutes of the climb, Sivakov posted and did like 650 W before pulling off which is 9 W/kg but this wasn't the 10% section yet. Estimates have Pog at 8 W/kg for 6 minutes, but Vingegaard doesn't drop after 2 minutes of 8W/kg so extremely likely even the Domancy split was very positive.
- Pogacar takes a huge amount of time on easier section of 2023, but even he himself is probably trying to recover there a little bit.
- G2 paces inefficiently, largely sitting on Evenepoel. After Lipowitz attacks, he's faster than Vingegaard on the remainder of the climb and only loses about 10-15 more seconds to Pogacar.
- Pogacar does the final cat 2 section at 24kph, which should be around 1850 VAM, which is still lower than his overall VAM for the climb. Anyone saying Pogacar looks easy here is full of it, he's very labored which is completely logical if you considered he started a 20 minute climb with basically a 2-6 minute max effort.
- Jorgenson is probalby 2nd fastest on the final split, only losing 11s to Pogacar in the final 6'20, and he actually gains 15s back in the final ~1.7km.


- Saxonne was overall pretty normal pace, but it started at like 4.5 minutes at 7W/kg which you should consider very quesitonable if you're Visma and if you consider nobody recovers from 7W/kg intervals like Pogacar.
-Visma should have just stuck together on Domancy sticking to 7W/kg, have Jorgenson empty himself on the 5% section and then Vingegaard solo the final 2.5k. But they're not very smart so ofcourse they didn't.

 

[fenns]

Campenaerts - gotta love the guy

 

[Red Rick]

They don’t need to be flat, they just don’t need to be at the end of the 3rd week. I think Pogacar even has a chance of beating Evenepoel in a flat ITT if it’s at the end of the GT. Just like Evenepoel can win one with much more altitude meters if it’s in the beginning of the GT.

3rd week TTs depend a lot on if the ITT is litreally the day after 3 mountain stages or if they have an easier day or two inbetween. Straight after mountain stage typically favors the better climbers more, while the grupetto TTers will win the timetrial usually, but if it's the typical stage 18 final mountain stage and stage 20 is a flat TT I simply favor Evenepoel.

 

[QueenStagiaire]

This stage only being shown from close to the top of Croix de Fer is just criminal.

 

[fenns]

I have that same hope … something in me tells me that Remco has still ample possibility to improve . But he needs to stay on his bike AND have a perfect winter preparation . Even for this TDF , I believe he will be better than last year . But I also believe the others will have improved as well so what this all means , remains to be seen .

I'm not confident for Remco in the Tour. His climbing this year has been unimpressive. We'll see how he goes today but if he loses a lot of time again it would suggest a 4th-7th type finish in Paris.

 

[Landeirovic]

Valter and Hagenes dropped

 

[Netserk]

So after rewatching the final climb in full and looking at some Strava files

- UAE does all the damage within the first 2 minutes of the climb, Sivakov posted and did like 650 W before pulling off which is 9 W/kg but this wasn't the 10% section yet. Estimates have Pog at 8 W/kg for 6 minutes, but Vingegaard doesn't drop after 2 minutes of 8W/kg so extremely likely even the Domancy split was very positive.
- Pogacar takes a huge amount of time on easier section of 2023, but even he himself is probably trying to recover there a little bit.
- G2 paces inefficiently, largely sitting on Evenepoel. After Lipowitz attacks, he's faster than Vingegaard on the remainder of the climb and only loses about 10-15 more seconds to Pogacar.
- Pogacar does the final cat 2 section at 24kph, which should be around 1850 VAM, which is still lower than his overall VAM for the climb. Anyone saying Pogacar looks easy here is full of it, he's very labored which is completely logical if you considered he started a 20 minute climb with basically a 2-6 minute max effort.
- Jorgenson is probalby 2nd fastest on the final split, only losing 11s to Pogacar in the final 6'20, and he actually gains 15s back in the final ~1.7km.


- Saxonne was overall pretty normal pace, but it started at like 4.5 minutes at 7W/kg which you should consider very quesitonable if you're Visma and if you consider nobody recovers from 7W/kg intervals like Pogacar.
-Visma should have just stuck together on Domancy sticking to 7W/kg, have Jorgenson empty himself on the 5% section and then Vingegaard solo the final 2.5k. But they're not very smart so ofcourse they didn't.

In a prep race, I think it's okay to FAFO. But yes, they should have done their own tempo with their own train from the bottom if this was the Tour.

 

[will-10]

Visma start the pressure early, Jorgensen in the moves on Madeleine