Dan Martin discussion thread

[happytramp]

Re: Re:

So.... don't want to get ahead of myself here. But he's look rather good right now isn't he.

He looked great! Question is can he hold that level for 3 weeks and on multi/mountain stages?

He certainly seems to think so

http://sporza.be/cm/sporza/videozon...TourDeFrance/Tour_Nieuws_verslagen/1.3017598#

 

[tobydawq]

Re: Re:

So.... don't want to get ahead of myself here. But he's look rather good right now isn't he.

He looked great! Question is can he hold that level for 3 weeks and on multi/mountain stages?

He certainly seems to think so

http://sporza.be/cm/sporza/videozon...TourDeFrance/Tour_Nieuws_verslagen/1.3017598#

Cheeky answer

He has certainly had an impressive start. A very good - for him, that is - time trial, an impressive third place on the Côte des Religieuses (or whatever the name was) and now second today. It looks promising for him, and he is probably happy that his nemesis of the season is no longer in the race (not happy in a malicious way - but you know what I mean).

 

[happytramp]

Valverde being gone probably won't effect his GC ambitions but now he might actually have a chance at winning a stage

 

[Leinster]

I think picking up time bonuses when possible (10s so far, with a few MJ-group finishes yet to come) is key to his GC chances, so Valverde being absent could have a significant bearing on his final position. He could conceivably pick up nearly a minute of time bonuses, which is about the time he'll probably lose to Froome/Porte in the Marseille TT. With AVV in the race and contesting these finishes, that number could be 20s less.

 

[Ruby United]

Re: Re:

Do shorter stages suit him better?

Not really ...he excels at Ardennes and they are very long but the shorter mountain stages are better for him as he is very fast. Plus ovr a number os stages suit him better as the need for recovery

Wow, thread dormant for nearly a year.

Going by his interview after the finish today, it's not that short stages suit him better, but shorter stages tend to lead to a lot of attacking, between lots of riders from different teams as the domestiques get burned off before the heads of state. Like in a classic, which is what he's good at. Stage races tend to be run more predictably, especially on long stages when riders have to be concerned about getting up again and repeating the next morning.

Also, he's very quick and good at getting over steep climbs, so he prefers a stage with one shorter, steep climb like today than many long climbs. I feel we will see his weakness on one of the long, mountainous stages. It's not the length of the stage that doesn't suit him, but the amount of long climbs in it.

And, like you pointed out, this also makes the races less explosive. The mountains become one long shlog to the line rather than short and explosive like today.
He can deal with steepness but I feel he struggles in long, mountain filled stages.

That's also why he was so good in the last Dauphine stage which was explosive and only 115km.

 

[Brullnux]

Lucky for him there are only three actual mountain stages then, and one of which is a descent from Galibier (which if sky are in yellow will turn into a procession) and the other is peyragudes. Unfortunately for him there are only two other mountain stages apart from those.

 

[happytramp]

Re:

I think picking up time bonuses when possible (10s so far, with a few MJ-group finishes yet to come) is key to his GC chances, so Valverde being absent could have a significant bearing on his final position. He could conceivably pick up nearly a minute of time bonuses, which is about the time he'll probably lose to Froome/Porte in the Marseille TT. With AVV in the race and contesting these finishes, that number could be 20s less.

Quite possibly... Although he couldn't stick with Dan and the other top GC guys in the Dauphine and openly admitted to being there to support Quintana so I'm not so sure he would have featured as heavily as he has in other GT's.

 

[Eagle]

Re:

I think picking up time bonuses when possible (10s so far, with a few MJ-group finishes yet to come) is key to his GC chances, so Valverde being absent could have a significant bearing on his final position. He could conceivably pick up nearly a minute of time bonuses, which is about the time he'll probably lose to Froome/Porte in the Marseille TT. With AVV in the race and contesting these finishes, that number could be 20s less.

A minute would be 5 stage wins, no chance he'll gain that much in this route

 

[HelloDolly]

Bloody route is annoying

It works against Dan, Aru & Porte....and it favours SKY keeping the yellow jersey...ASO major fail imo

 

[Leinster]

Re: Re:

I think picking up time bonuses when possible (10s so far, with a few MJ-group finishes yet to come) is key to his GC chances, so Valverde being absent could have a significant bearing on his final position. He could conceivably pick up nearly a minute of time bonuses, which is about the time he'll probably lose to Froome/Porte in the Marseille TT. With AVV in the race and contesting these finishes, that number could be 20s less.

A minute would be 5 stage wins, no chance he'll gain that much in this route

He has 10 seconds already, with only one "mountain" stage done. "Nearly" a minute would be if he picks up any more than 36 for the rest of the Tour. One stage win (let's say stage 13) means he needs another 26. I think he can pick up podium spots on stages 8, 9, 12 and, optimistically, 14, which has a very Ardennes-looking lumpiness to the profile. So a very strong second week could see him really threatening. I can't see him finishing top 3 on the Izoard, but if he's within range over the Aubisque, a 3rd is possible there too.

Now all this allows that no breaks get up the road to spoil things on these stages, and I think that's his biggest problem what with not having a mountain train to set these stages up for him.

But let's also allow for the fact that he's riding with a Belgian team of sprinters and classics riders, and as I wade into pure dreamland territory I can picture QS teaming up with one of the Lotto squads or Bora/Orica on a windy day and ambushing Sky/Movistar a la Tinkoff and EQS in 2013, or Jungels and Gaviria at the Giro this year. Get the right mix together, get a gap on Froome, and instant minute gained.

 

[hrotha]

Re:

Bloody route is annoying

It works against Dan, Aru & Porte....and it favours SKY keeping the yellow jersey...ASO major fail imo

How do you figure?

 

[Leinster]

Re: Re:

Bloody route is annoying

It works against Dan, Aru & Porte....and it favours SKY keeping the yellow jersey...ASO major fail imo

How do you figure?

Yeah, I would say <40km of TT and only 1HC Summit finish works in Martin's favour if anything, and certainly the lack of TT helps Aru.

I'd say if anyone is hurt by the route, it's Contador who doesn't have the explosiveness he used to, and would need a few long, multi-col stages and a long, lumpy time trial to be able to put time into anyone.

 

[gregrowlerson]

Re: Re:

Bloody route is annoying

It works against Dan, Aru & Porte....and it favours SKY keeping the yellow jersey...ASO major fail imo

How do you figure?

Yes, it is simply taking an anti-Sky perspective, no matter what.

Maybe they could/should have had a hard/er 1 or 2 mountain stages, but they also should have had another 50 km flat ITT.

I think that Aru and Martin have a better chance against Froome on the current route.

 

[movingtarget]

Re: Re:

Bloody route is annoying

It works against Dan, Aru & Porte....and it favours SKY keeping the yellow jersey...ASO major fail imo

How do you figure?

Yes, it is simply taking an anti-Sky perspective, no matter what.

Maybe they could/should have had a hard/er 1 or 2 mountain stages, but they also should have had another 50 km flat ITT.

I think that Aru and Martin have a better chance against Froome on the current route.

Yes they do with the lack of TT kms.

 

[HelloDolly]

Re: Re:

Bloody route is annoying

It works against Dan, Aru & Porte....and it favours SKY keeping the yellow jersey...ASO major fail imo

How do you figure?

Yes, it is simply taking an anti-Sky perspective, no matter what.

Maybe they could/should have had a hard/er 1 or 2 mountain stages, but they also should have had another 50 km flat ITT.

I think that Aru and Martin have a better chance against Froome on the current route.

I am not taking the anti-sky perspective no matter what ? Jeez take the chip off your shoulder
Of course lack of TT favour Aru & Martin...but lack of MTF is more detrimental to ANYONE taking time back on SKY in yellow...that is all ...not anti SKY

So no point gaining TT advantage if you have no place to ply your trade ... myopic view of TT advantage
If there were more MTFs then lack of TT miles would be an advantage ...as it i they cancel each other out

 

[movingtarget]

Re: Re:

Bloody route is annoying

It works against Dan, Aru & Porte....and it favours SKY keeping the yellow jersey...ASO major fail imo

How do you figure?

Yes, it is simply taking an anti-Sky perspective, no matter what.

Maybe they could/should have had a hard/er 1 or 2 mountain stages, but they also should have had another 50 km flat ITT.

I think that Aru and Martin have a better chance against Froome on the current route.

I am not taking the anti-sky perspective no matter what ? Jeez take the chip off your shoulder
Of course lack of TT favour Aru & Martin...but lack of MTF is more detrimental to ANYONE taking time back on SKY in yellow...that is all ...not anti SKY

So no point gaining TT advantage if you have no place to ply your trade ... myopic view of TT advantage
If there were more MTFs then lack of TT miles would be an advantage ...as it i they cancel each other out

Even Froome seemed bemused by the route as if he couldn't quite understand what he was looking at and all he could say was it's going to be interesting ! I think Prudhomme thought this route could bring Froome back to the field a little and make for close racing or that's what he was hoping for.

 

[Leinster]

Re: Re:

Bloody route is annoying

It works against Dan, Aru & Porte....and it favours SKY keeping the yellow jersey...ASO major fail imo

How do you figure?

Yes, it is simply taking an anti-Sky perspective, no matter what.

Maybe they could/should have had a hard/er 1 or 2 mountain stages, but they also should have had another 50 km flat ITT.

I think that Aru and Martin have a better chance against Froome on the current route.

I am not taking the anti-sky perspective no matter what ? Jeez take the chip off your shoulder
Of course lack of TT favour Aru & Martin...but lack of MTF is more detrimental to ANYONE taking time back on SKY in yellow...that is all ...not anti SKY

So no point gaining TT advantage if you have no place to ply your trade ... myopic view of TT advantage
If there were more MTFs then lack of TT miles would be an advantage ...as it i they cancel each other out

The only rider to take time out of Froome more than once or twice on TdF MTFs in the past 5 years has been Quintana. Froome has taken yellow on the first MTF of every Tour where he's made it that far since 2013. To say taking out summit finishes is supposed to in some way aid Froome is just to ignore how the race has played out the last few years.

 

[HelloDolly]

I'm kinda talking about the race this year btw

you know Contador was Froome rival a few years ago...things move on
For me Froome in the jersey is hard to stop because of his team

Only way to beat him is man o man on climbs where Porte, Aru , Martin & Bardet have a chance this year imo,
But as I said not alot of MTF

 

[BigShoes]

Almost perfect start, to put it in perspective after the first short ITT and first hill finish (Huy) in TdF 2015 DM was 2.06 down on Froome and sitting in 20th position.

 

[Akuryo]

Re:

Almost perfect start, to put it in perspective after the first short ITT and first hill finish (Huy) in TdF 2015 DM was 2.06 down on Froome and sitting in 20th position.

Dan actually said before the Tour that the first week will be crucial for him cause thats where he often lost time in the past. He hopes that his team will protect him for that first week and then he will be able to take it from there. He said before that he does not feel comfortable in the hectic bunch in the first week when everybody wants to impress. So far so good

 

[happytramp]

Absolutely gutted for Dan... had a really good chance of making the podium and winning today's stage :sad:

Thought he might be due some good Karma especially after refusing to attack with the others and waiting for Froome.

 

[Bakkie]

So sad for Dan. I think he has won the stage.

 

[Inquitus]

Re:

So sad for Dan. I think he has won the stage.

Aye he was my pick if it was a GC day, would have kept him in the mix for the overall win for now.

 

[happytramp]

Re: Re:

So sad for Dan. I think he has won the stage.

Aye he was my pick if it was a GC day, would have kept him in the mix for the overall win for now.

Yep, he'd probably be 2nd in the GC now.

 

[can3478]

Re: Re:

So sad for Dan. I think he has won the stage.

Aye he was my pick if it was a GC day, would have kept him in the mix for the overall win for now.

Yep, he'd probably be 2nd in the GC now.

Just so unlucky.
He's now 6th on GC despite of 2 crashes.