De Ronde van Vlaanderen (270.8 km), 2024 March 31 (Sunday)

[Krzysztof_O]

Saturday, somewhere in Belgium:
Pogi: I decided to start in Flandres cause I missed my friend Matthieu! No Wout so I don't want him to feel alone on those hills. Plus I had an argument with Urshka and wanted to escape.
MVP: ...

 

[proffate]

Some serious coping here. WVA injured does not make this harder for mathieu.

You don't remember PR 2011?

Cancellara was the most marked rider I can ever remember seeing after his dominant e3, and with Tom Boonen removed by a mechanical it was Canc v World which permitted Vansummeren to steal it.

 

[staubsauger]

You don't remember PR 2011?

Cancellara was the most marked rider I can ever remember seeing after his dominant e3, and with Tom Boonen removed by a mechanical it was Canc v World which permitted Vansummeren to steal it.

AG2R & UnoX really should try to put someone like Gautherat & Abrahamsen into the breakaway just in case...

Maybe even Francaise des Jeux with someone like Askey or UAE with Hirschi!

Or Bjerg. Put Mikkel Bjerg into the early breakaway. If Van der Poel can't get rid of the others early enough and none of the other favorites wants to work for him that could become very dangerous all of a sudden!

 

[Rob5091]

Still think if FDJ can get Pithie, Küng and Madouas working together, they could be a possible podium spot.

 

[staubsauger]

Still think if FDJ can get Pithie, Küng and Madouas working together, they could be a possible podium spot.

Madouas actually looked improved yesterday.

With Pithie I fear he just explodes somewhere again with the distance

 

[sam6]

I don't think this will be as dominant a win for MVDP as you would expect. Look at 2022 Roubaix for example when Van Baarle took a shock win and MVDP was nowhere. And in 2021 Flanders when Asgreen won. And even last weekend when Pedersen outsprinted him. And 2021 Roubaix when Colbrelli and Vermeersch outsprinted him. Even last year, had Pogi not been in the race the winner probably would have come from that huge breakaway. I reckon others will be close to him. I think he will only win one of Flanders and Roubaix and we will see some surprise names competing - yes it's sad that Wout isn't here but there are still a lot of good riders here and a lot can happen in these cobbled races. Not having Pogi arguably adds to the unpredictability as we all know how he will race and he would drop all the second-tier contenders, but having them still in the front group means more chaos! I reckon Mohoric could be a serious contender. Michael Matthews will also be up here after almost outsprinting Phillipsen in MSR. Bettiol looked super strong but maybe the distance is too much for him. Pedersen is the number 2 favourite. But even riders in the early break can have a big influence, as we saw on Wednesday

 

[Squire]

Oier Lazkano will win this bike race.

 

[Savant12]

You don't remember PR 2011?

Cancellara was the most marked rider I can ever remember seeing after his dominant e3, and with Tom Boonen removed by a mechanical it was Canc v World which permitted Vansummeren to steal it.

I'm probably wrong but is that the PR when Cancellara was just chilling and let multiple groups go up the road with still many KMs left. Only to attack and bridge from group to group.

 

[Brullnux]

then again, I remember E3 and Mathieu destroyed a field with much fitter/better other favorites over a course 60km shorter with a 44k solo to boot. If he's anywhere near that and Glasgow form I don't think having a team even remotely matters.

Yeah agree... I don't think any team can really pull a Lidl-Trek, which seems the most obvious way to beat him. I imagine he pulls the trigger early, gets a select group, follows some attacks, drops everyone and gets a 60k solo. If he goes alone, he will win – I think it is as simple as that. I think it'll be a very different story at Paris-Roubaix, but not Ronde.

 

[Zoetemelk-fan]

I don't think this will be as dominant a win for MVDP as you would expect. Look at 2022 Roubaix for example when Van Baarle took a shock win and MVDP was nowhere. And in 2021 Flanders when Asgreen won. And even last weekend when Pedersen outsprinted him. And 2021 Roubaix when Colbrelli and Vermeersch outsprinted him. Even last year, had Pogi not been in the race the winner probably would have come from that huge breakaway. I reckon others will be close to him. I think he will only win one of Flanders and Roubaix and we will see some surprise names competing - yes it's sad that Wout isn't here but there are still a lot of good riders here and a lot can happen in these cobbled races. Not having Pogi arguably adds to the unpredictability as we all know how he will race and he would drop all the second-tier contenders, but having them still in the front group means more chaos! I reckon Mohoric could be a serious contender. Michael Matthews will also be up here after almost outsprinting Phillipsen in MSR. Bettiol looked super strong but maybe the distance is too much for him. Pedersen is the number 2 favourite. But even riders in the early break can have a big influence, as we saw on Wednesday

I like all the open doors you describe as possibilities (I could come up with some further alternative outcomes myself).
And how wonderful it would be with excitement to the crucial final.

However, objectively I see it differently. MvDP used Gent-Wevelgem as a test of opening the valves early in the race.
And with an amputated Lidl-Trek, I doubt that he will miss the chance to tender his closest competitors on the cobble climbs long before the grand final Oude Kwaremont - Paterberg. That's how I read his activity last Sunday, also with his pre race interview, which through the lines sounded like he wanted to test his legs and strategy towards De Ronde.

 

[Jumbo Visma Fan :)]

You don't remember PR 2011?

Cancellara was the most marked rider I can ever remember seeing after his dominant e3, and with Tom Boonen removed by a mechanical it was Canc v World which permitted Vansummeren to steal it.

PR plays easier for marking based on how it’s raced though.

 

[Red Rick]

then again, I remember E3 and Mathieu destroyed a field with much fitter/better other favorites over a course 60km shorter with a 44k solo to boot. If he's anywhere near that and Glasgow form I don't think having a team even remotely matters.

Pretty much. Roubaix should be more difficult but de Ronde is his to lose

 

[Zoetemelk-fan]

Just reread the route for Sunday.

They've moved Koppenberg I just realized.

So with 54k to go and within 10k those three climbs:
Oude Kwaremont - Paterberg - Koppenberg, the last with 44k to go.
Having climbed this combo myself decades ago and then again two years ago at full attack mode - boy that hurts (and then after approx 220k for the sunday riders).

This edition is even more scripted for Matthieu than I thought.

Now I'm thinking if we've ever before have had such big favourite for De Ronde?
It's all up to Alpacin to control the breakaway. They just have to think onto 54k to go.

 

[KZD]

I don't think this will be as dominant a win for MVDP as you would expect. Look at 2022 Roubaix for example when Van Baarle took a shock win and MVDP was nowhere. And in 2021 Flanders when Asgreen won. And even last weekend when Pedersen outsprinted him. And 2021 Roubaix when Colbrelli and Vermeersch outsprinted him. Even last year, had Pogi not been in the race the winner probably would have come from that huge breakaway. I reckon others will be close to him. I think he will only win one of Flanders and Roubaix and we will see some surprise names competing - yes it's sad that Wout isn't here but there are still a lot of good riders here and a lot can happen in these cobbled races. Not having Pogi arguably adds to the unpredictability as we all know how he will race and he would drop all the second-tier contenders, but having them still in the front group means more chaos! I reckon Mohoric could be a serious contender. Michael Matthews will also be up here after almost outsprinting Phillipsen in MSR. Bettiol looked super strong but maybe the distance is too much for him. Pedersen is the number 2 favourite. But even riders in the early break can have a big influence, as we saw on Wednesday

While I don't think that Van der Poel will have a win as dominant as Pogačar had in Strade or he himself had in E3, I am still confident that he will get the win in Flanders

Out of the examples that you gave, I think only 2021 RVV is a good example and Van der Poel still come second in that race against an Asgreen that was arguably the strongest and Van der Poel is a stronger rider than he was in 2021 so even if he doesn't win I would be very surprised if there is another rider stronger than him. Gent-Wevelgem has a much easier parcours than Flanders and Lidl-Trek played their carda perfectly against a Van der Poel that was likely not totally recovered from his solo in E3. Now, its Pedersen who will have to recover of his crash in DDV so the odds are against him.

I think the biggest danger for Van der Poel is if riders like Jorgenson, Wellens or Bettiol try to anticipate, likely before the first Oude Kwaremont-Paterberg combo. But, I don't think Van der Poel will give these kind of riders too much of a leash if any.

Now, Roubaix is a different story and the odds of Van der Poel winning there are obviously lower but Philipsen will be a second very strong card that Alpecin can play there.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

I like all the open doors you describe as possibilities (I could come up with some further alternative outcomes myself).
And how wonderful it would be with excitement to the crucial final.

However, objectively I see it differently. MvDP used Gent-Wevelgem as a test of opening the valves early in the race.
And with an amputated Lidl-Trek, I doubt that he will miss the chance to tender his closest competitors on the cobble climbs long before the grand final Oude Kwaremont - Paterberg. That's how I read his activity last Sunday, also with his pre race interview, which through the lines sounded like he wanted to test his legs and strategy towards De Ronde.

and the more you read his interviews lately...

always trains a lot on solo efforts, but obv also short climbs.. usually the week before his big goals he goes absolutely HAM in the last prep races (which he did). Come big race day he'll chose his efforts more carefully but will still race aggresively. Throw some early bombs, keep calm, throw late bombs, go solo, seems to be the recipe.

 

[QueenStagiaire]

I'm probably wrong but is that the PR when Cancellara was just chilling and let multiple groups go up the road with still many KMs left. Only to attack and bridge from group to group.

I think that could be Roubaix 2013 as well.

 

[Red Rick]

and the more you read his interviews lately...

always trains a lot on solo efforts, but obv also short climbs.. usually the week before his big goals he goes absolutely HAM in the last prep races (which he did). Come big race day he'll chose his efforts more carefully but will still race aggresively. Throw some early bombs, keep calm, throw late bombs, go solo, seems to be the recipe.

I think his only lose condition is a scenario where some insane breakaway goes without him and he's made to chase solo instead of with Van Aert and Pogi like last year. I've rechecked some recent results and I have no doubt the gap between MvdP and the rest is much bigger now than it was in 2020-2022 especially.

Alpecins primary objective should be to keep breaks and big moves in check and get MvdP to the 2nd Kwaremont, after that I don't doubt at all that he can manage it solo.

 

[Savant12]

I think that could be Roubaix 2013 as well.

You're right! Had a quick look on YT and it is that one. I remember Sean Kelly on comms wondering if he was just "playing a bit of bluff"; whereas, Carlton Kirby (I think?) was calling it over for Cancellara when he dropped back to the team car for a talk.

 

[Netserk]

Just reread the route for Sunday.

They've moved Koppenberg I just realized.

So with 54k to go and within 10k those three climbs:
Oude Kwaremont - Paterberg - Koppenberg, the last with 44k to go.
Having climbed this combo myself decades ago and then again two years ago at full attack mode - boy that hurts (and then after approx 220k for the sunday riders).

This edition is even more scripted for Matthieu than I thought.

Now I'm thinking if we've ever before have had such big favourite for De Ronde?
It's all up to Alpacin to control the breakaway. They just have to think onto 54k to go.

No, Koppenberg has had this exact spot since 2013, iirc.

 

[RedheadDane]

They've moved Koppenberg I just realized.

That would have been impressive!

 

[proffate]

I'm probably wrong but is that the PR when Cancellara was just chilling and let multiple groups go up the road with still many KMs left. Only to attack and bridge from group to group.

My memory is that he tried to attack the favorites group numerous times but did not get a gap and no one would work with him, they were basically all willing to track stand while the early group was still up the road. It actually seemed like Canc had just given up completely but attacked one last time on an almost invisible rise and finally shook off Thor et al and then somehow managed to chase down everyone but Vansummeren in the last handful of Ks.

 

[Oldermanish]

Matteo should appreciate that the forum believes he has little to no chance.

 

[repre]

Matteo should appreciate that the forum believes he has little to no chance.

His only chance to win if he will ride away with Kung, podium is doable

 

[Sciatic]

My memory is that he tried to attack the favorites group numerous times but did not get a gap and no one would work with him, they were basically all willing to track stand while the early group was still up the road. It actually seemed like Canc had just given up completely but attacked one last time on an almost invisible rise and finally shook off Thor et al and then somehow managed to chase down everyone but Vansummeren in the last handful of Ks.

I think Cancellara did give up for awhile out of frustration. I remember him saying, regarding Thor sitting on his wheel, something like “if I stopped for coffee he would have followed me into the cafe” (paraphrase).

 

[Zoetemelk-fan]

No, Koppenberg has had this exact spot since 2013, iirc.

Ok must be my lacking memory, was thinking the previous new route editions entering Koppenberg after 1st climb of Oude Kwaremont, but just checked up, and you're right.