discussion!!! contador

[No_Balls]

Candidates

Stage 7 : distanced by Scarponi Kreuziger and 1 or 2 others. Lost 2 seconds. He was actually DISTANCED!!!

Stage 14: Zoncolan: Didnt win. Amazingly, he didnt win!!!
Also had a stake shoved in his face. Unlike other stages, never showed that he could win the stage, people just assumed he was within his limit. Booed by idiots.

Stage 15: He didnt win. Looked awesome but said afterwards that it was the most difficult day in the saddle of his entire life.

Stage 19: Outsprinted at the finish by Tiralongo.

Here is my response (sorry to interfere):

Stage 7: You should say outsprinted because that was what happened. Said also afterwards that he felt good on his website.

Stage 14: Could be a candidate but i stand corrected that he looked very comfortable and even attacked Nibali twice. The late attack is IMO the reason to the public boo because it looked like he toyed with Lo Squalo.

Stage 15: This is the one IMO. He was alone over three mountains and covered attacks from everyone. Attacked over the last decent to gain momentum to Lo Squalo and rode everyone off going into the last mountain. Lost seconds to Scarponi during the last kilometer but enough to stay in front.

Nevertheless, he was massively impressive this stage.

Stage 19:

 

[The Hitch]

Why ruin the post with fishing?

Whats fishing?

 

[El Pistolero]

Something lame people do in their free time.

 

[Parrulo]

Here is my response (sorry to interfere):

Stage 7: You should say outsprinted because that was what happened. Said also afterwards that he felt good on his website.

Stage 14: Could be a candidate but i stand corrected that he looked very comfortable and even attacked Nibali twice. The late attack is IMO the reason to the public boo because it looked like he toyed with Il Falco.

Stage 15: This is the one IMO. He was alone over three mountains and covered attacks from everyone. Attacked over the last decent to gain momentum to Il Falco and rode everyone off going into the last mountain. Lost seconds to Scarponi during the last kilometer but enough to stay in front.

Nevertheless, he was massively impressive this stage.

Stage 19:

its IL SQUALO, il falco was savoldelli

he was booed because of the crostis. also i think the zoncolan is a stronger candidate then stage 15 imo. i have re watched that stage a couple times and nibali feels confident enough to attack contador a few times by massively upping the pace for a while after some turns. ofc he never successfully drops contador. then nibali pretty much bonks and that causes anton to gain a lot of time and scarponi to almost get back. at that moment contador attacks and then almost stops which is something he never did before, nibali catches up and contador attacks again only gaining a handful of seconds on a exhausted nibali.

just my view on that stage

Whats fishing?

i honestly read fisting

 

[Sylvester]

To be fair, it's not IL squalo, it's LO squalo

 

[thirteen]

i honestly read fisting

we're not in hell yet

 

[Parrulo]

To be fair, it's not IL squalo, it's LO squalo

my bad. its "il falco" correct then or should it also be "lo falco"?

my italian is good enough to understand almost everything that i hear but its mostly done on instinct, i have a hard time understanding what i am reading in italian tho

we're not in hell yet

oh it was an honest mistake

 

[No_Balls]

its IL SQUALO, il falco was savoldelli

Already changed it. I saw my mistake.

he was booed because of the crostis.

Has that been confirmed? If you re-watch that stage he drops back to Nibali (or Nibali catching up) and immediately attacks him again which i, at that point, thought was not appreciated by the public, it was also the only time during the stage the crowd booed.

I am twisting between 14 and 15. He had his head turned at the side as shows when he is sub-par his best, but on the same time he seemed to change wheels with ease, after Scarponi bonked, and following Nibali, after that he held his advantage. At stage 15 he had a lot of work to do on his own, and actually saw Scarponi catching him during the last kilometer.

But it could be very much as you say, that he stopped his attack on 14 depending on that he felt not so good, but it did confuse me since he attacked again when Nibali was back on his wheel.

 

[Parrulo]

ya i think that was pretty much confirmed.

stage 15 was immensely hard its only normal that he was struggling at the end imo, every1 was. remember nibali being dropped big time on the fedeia from a group that had pretty much all the top dogs and he then went to out climb most of them on the last climb anyway? only the strongest reached the end of that stage with something left on the tank. he(contador) over judged himself a bit on his last attack(prolly wanted to catch the break and win the stage) and scarponi did an amazing job pacing himself thats why he never went too far into the red.

on stage 14 nibali was nearly bonked(anton's lead went from a few meters to over 30 seconds in a couple hundred meters worth of climb) and he still almost kept up with contador's second attack. something a guy like nibali who is a diesel shouldn't be able to do.

thats why i say stage 14. still a contador on a bad day was still above every1 else lol.

 

[trevim]

Here is my response (sorry to interfere):

Stage 7: You should say outsprinted because that was what happened. Said also afterwards that he felt good on his website.

Stage 14: Could be a candidate but i stand corrected that he looked very comfortable and even attacked Nibali twice. The late attack is IMO the reason to the public boo because it looked like he toyed with Lo Squalo.

Stage 15: This is the one IMO. He was alone over three mountains and covered attacks from everyone. Attacked over the last decent to gain momentum to Lo Squalo and rode everyone off going into the last mountain. Lost seconds to Scarponi during the last kilometer but enough to stay in front.

Nevertheless, he was massively impressive this stage.

Stage 19:

On stage 15 he wasn't alone. He had Lastras and Arroyo covering moves in the base of Fedaia

 

[No_Balls]

thats why i say stage 14. still a contador on a bad day was still above every1 else lol.

Yes, and that is why it is hard to judge when he is having a bad day/out of form because he even then has a advantage. He is probably around 80% and still hanging around the top guns. Wonder what takes to drop him (besides obvious flaws like in Paris-Nice), 60-50% below par?

On stage 15 he wasn't alone. He had Lastras and Arroyo covering moves in the base of Fedaia

Nice observation. Specially Arroyo was helpful in catching Nibali after his monstrous decent. Which makes me more and more pro the idea by forming an alliance with Samu the next couple of days, not helping the necks riding off Evans.

 

[JA.Tri]

Yes AC can win. Will he? maybe...

As others point out, the ramifications of a hard Giro are yet to be seen. Will he fall off a fatigue cliff? Unlikely but he probably will be a excellent climber rather than his usual extraordinary self.

His knee injury appears to be resolving, with an associated improvement in rhythm and power.

I therefore believe:
.he will climb with the selection, he will attack and maybe gain a few seconds on all except Andy
.he will likely have a better ITT than last year's finale but impacted by some Giro/Tour fatigue compared with his best
.with his toughness, he is one that can make up the current deficit
.currently a toss up... 20% chance of a win.

Truly the climb up L'Alpe will confirm/refine the picture...duh obvious!

 

[warmfuzzies]

Anyone still think AC can win this tour?

 

[webvan]

Like I said he would away in the third week like Basso did last year, still pretty impressive but not enough.

 

[Poursuivant]

Completely warmed to contador this tour. From when he was booed, and his face dropped I felt sorry for him. He has conducted himself really well, while others have spat their dummies out. Always respectful, speaks sense, and has finally shown he is human. Showed class yesterday when he was dropped and fought to hang on. chapeau

 

[webvan]

Nice try today but hard to say I felt sorry for him when he got caught before the end by Rolland and then passed, he "paid" for all the "supermen" who took off at the foot of the Alpe never to be seen again, Pantani, Armstrong, etc...the era of the "supermen" is finished!

 

[warmfuzzies]

Nice try today but hard to say I felt sorry for him when he got caught before the end by Rolland and then passed, he "paid" for all the "supermen" who took off at the foot of the Alpe never to be seen again, Pantani, Armstrong, etc...the era of the "supermen" is finished!

What was Andy then on the Galibier yesterday? Batman perhaps?

 

[webvan]

A guy who lost two minutes from his for four minute lead...no superman there, just good tactics.

 

[fatandfast]

he can win not sure if he will. A lil blow up or a mechanical could spoil the podium for the Schleck family. 43k is a long time to be one the bike after the suffering they have already done. Alberto and Cadel have shown that they are much harder men than any of the luxxies.
The Shlecks should also be concerned with good rides coming from Basso and Cunego both guys are showing what made them big names in bike racing.

If Andy could have motored away like he did in his long breakaway he probably should have got some time in the first climbing stages. He let this thing go way too close with his negative/counter attack/wait and see technique. At least he really jammed one day, lets see if it's enough.

Alberto looks like he can really settle in and the 43k suits him way better than Andy,don't know if it will be 4 minutes better but I hope so.