discussion!!! contador

[c&cfan]

do you believe that he will win?

i enjoyed today's stage. it was pretty clear that contador wasn't at his best (bad position, falls, giro, knee etc) but damn... the guy has a big heart!!

will he recover in time to go for the win? i have my doubts. however if he does it will be history being made my fellow cyclingtards. in this situation there's only one cyclist that could win and that's alberto.

what are your thoughts?

 

[Ryo Hazuki]

he will either recover more or slowly fade away. I tink he will recover and then the schlecks tactics today were pathetic, this was their chance, but andy wasn't good enough and frank went too late

 

[screaming fist]

Of course it's possible. If he manages to hang on in the next days and takes time in Alpe d'Huez and the TT he can win. But it doesn't seem very likely at the moment.

 

[ElChingon]

He still has a chance, its not like the Schlecks are known for their error free racing afterall.

 

[c&cfan]

Of course it's possible. If he manages to hang on in the next days and takes time in Alpe d'Huez and the TT he can win. But it doesn't seem very likely at the moment.

there's one thing that i don't understand.

the guy has won pretty much everything that he tried to win this year, so he is tired. there's also the clen thing.. and he is still the marked man??? no one tries to attack the shlecks?

contador isn't obligated to win this.. evans basso and the shlecks are!

big heart contador. amazing.

 

[MKirilenko]

I think Basso says it all:
"Contador is a champion. You need to remember that he might only need one real attack to win the Tour de France."
Nonetheless I think it will be very, very hard for him now. Maybe if he hadn't lost so much time on 1st, who knows

 

[valaverde7]

He can win the tour,but it s depends if he is be able to recovery of the knee and get a better form in the next stages.

I haven t seen andy schleck whith a high form, and i think that today andy hasn t get more time to alberto because he couldnt

 

[vcampbell]

Yes! Basso's words, and also the fact that his knee is injured, the Giro, and he will be able to hang on with the others, and react some attacks.
Todays performance or any better will be enough for him to the Pyrenees. Then there are some rest stages. I don't say that still he is the greatest favorite, but with 2 minutes behind he is still more than a simple contender. He just need one perfect stage in the mountains, and at least a good ITT. The hope never dies.

 

[hrotha]

Again with the incoherent polls? Do I think he can still win? Yes. Do I think he will win? Not necessarily.

 

[Look381]

Contador needs to survive stage 14, adn then have an great staege 18. The other mountain stages all have downhils and flats before the finish. If Contdor can hang in sight of the Schlecks on the climbs he will catch them on the descent. Andy for one is not a good descender.

Can't see Evans winning unless he has a truely great day in the mountains and the TT. Basso, well he could hang in there withh assorted people and end up in a good position. He is a rider who could attack on a descent and get a gap then TT to the end of a stage.

 

[warmfuzzies]

Difficult for AC to win at this point. His form and health are questionable. The time gaps are large enough now to confidently say AC can't make up the difference solely on the ITT. He has to drop the field in the mountains, something he hasn't done at the Tour in 2 years. He's got a good shot at the podium, but even this assumes he holds his position in the mountains and gains time in the ITT.

 

[ericthesportsman6]

Can he? Yes. Will he? Probably not. He was on better form last year and only managed a thirty second gap due to chaingate. But stranger things have happened.

 

[vcampbell]

Can he? Yes. Will he? Probably not. He was on better form last year and only managed a thirty second gap due to chaingate. But stranger things have happened.

Don't compare last year Tour with this. Last year there was no Giro, no crash. We just don't know what will happen with his knee, and also there is the fatigue question.

 

[Parrulo]

Basso, well he could hang in there withh assorted people and end up in a good position. He is a rider who could attack on a descent and get a gap then TT to the end of a stage.

july fan detected

basso attacking on a descent is as likely as cav dropping every1 on the plateu de beille

on the topic. saturday will be the most important stage for contador imo. he must hang on which will be very hard with his current form.

if he doesn't lose time on saturday and his form keeps improving i could see him taking 40 secs on each MTF of the alps and getting the rest of the needed time on the itt.

right now i would put: 30% chances he can make it and 70% he can't

 

[Parrulo]

Can he? Yes. Will he? Probably not. He was on better form last year and only managed a thirty second gap due to chaingate. But stranger things have happened.

you are ignoring this

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p_jnzynUECg&feature=related

schleck cracked big time on that mountain and was losing btw 20 and 25 secs when the climb finished but since he was on a big group and the last k was flat the peloton was able to cut the losses to 10 secs

one thing i will say tho. if he finds 90% of his giro form he will crush every1 on the final week.

 

[The Hitch]

Its a credit to Contador that he limited his losses to 15 seconds. I remember Nibali played this hang on trick till the last km in that VUelta stage where Purito took red and in the last k he lost about a minute. Basso Cadel and Andy were sprinting it down that final straight, clearly on better form and he limited it to 15 seconds.

Anyway i think if Contador didnt think he could win he would not do this Tour.

Probably wont win on Plateau but theres still a week till Galibier then Alpe and thats where Contador can win, if he rides himself into form and he has of course great recovery and then the tt.

 

[therealtimshady]

he will either recover more or slowly fade away. I tink he will recover and then the schlecks tactics today were pathetic, this was their chance, but andy wasn't good enough and frank went too late

I totally agree the tactics of the shrecks were awful. Both of them are appalling time trialists (don't believe the rubbish about andy improving because of last years ITT as he was made to look better by berties worst TT of his life) the shrecks need at least 3 mins on Evans and bertie to be safe

 

[warmfuzzies]

I'm unconvinced AC can take ITT time from Evans or Basso. Assuming a wheelsucker mountain extravaganza, this suggest AC is playing for 3rd. He must drop the field in the mountains to win.

 

[spanky wanderlust]

contador is riding defensively. losing only 13s today was a victory for him.

if he recovers better, as others get more fatigued he becomes more dangerous. the schlecks should not arrive in the alps with less than 4 minutes on him if either wants to win.

basso and cadel both need time too as both can lose a lot in one attack by contador when he is on.

 

[spanky wanderlust]

btw, writing "discussion" in the thread title, or "discuss" in the op is both redundant and unnecessary. it comes across as ****would be edited by mods anyway*****.

 

[Midnightfright]

contador is riding defensively. losing only 13s today was a victory for him.

if he recovers better, as others get more fatigued he becomes more dangerous. the schlecks should not arrive in the alps with less than 4 minutes on him if either wants to win.

basso and cadel both need time too as both can lose a lot in one attack by contador when he is on.

Rightly or wrongly I think AS is confident he can stay within Contador in the alps and wont be worried about losing time in the alps.

 

[jobiwan]

I don't really think he can.

I'm not sold on the fact that in 5 days he's going to go from losing time to Cadel Evans - gaining 1:30 on Andy Schleck. Sorry, I just can't see it happening.

And even if he got back say, 45 seconds, to Andy on his current gap before the TT. That puts him 1 minute behind Andy.

In mediocre form last year, he gained only 31 seconds in Bordeaux, starting BEHIND Andy. This year's TT is shorter and hillier, and Contador looks to be at pretty much the same form as last year.

And even if he could get 1 minute back (which I don't think he can), Andy would get to start after Contador in the TT, and that can't be overlooked.

So, no, I don't think he can (Barring Unfortunate but Predictable Stupid Move from Schlecks).
I do hope he tries, though.

 

[Captain_Obvious]

I still have hope...

 

[Lanark]

He can still win this, after all, Contador is a pretty special guy, you should obviously never write him off.

But I don't think it's really the most likely scenario right now. It's far more common for people who rode the Giro to get worse during the Tour than the opposite. If you're nitpicky you could say that we're already seeing this effect, because he was clearly much better on the Mur de Bretagne, but that stage wasn't really comparable to a real mountain stage.

At this point, he has to gain time in the mountains. Andy Schleck is a much better ITT'er after a hard GT than people give him credit for, and Contador still has to make up time to Evans, maybe Evans will crack some stage (I wouldn't be surprised), but otherwise that could become quite difficult. Still, three tough MTF's to go, a lot can happen.

 

[warmfuzzies]

AC's ability to win this Tour rests on Saturday's stage. If he can't put time into the Shlecks, Evans, and Basso on Saturday, he will not win the Tour, and his podium prospects decline. There's not enough time to expect a dramatic improvement for the Alps or ITT. Saturday will be this Tour's critical selection.