discussion!!! contador

[hrotha]

Rightly or wrongly I think AS is confident he can stay within Contador in the alps and wont be worried about losing time in the alps.

It's still stupid to take the gamble. It would take a disastrous ITT on his part but it's not impossible for Contador to make up that time, and therefore it's irresponsible of Andy not to try to put more time on him while he can. Not to mention he could crash, have a mechanical or bump into Karpets any time and lose his precious buffer.

But of course Andy always rides on the principle of least effort.

 

[El Pistolero]

His brother is 38 seconds ahead of him I think it's time to start talking about Frank.

And don't give me the bull**** of not wanting to chase his own brother. Frank chased Andy at Verbier.

 

[ImmaculateKadence]

Save for some divine (or clinical) intervention, I think he's done. A top 3 is still possible, but I don't think he could put the time necessary into Evans. Maybe he could put time into the Schlecklet in the TT and a couple good attacks, but Evans is strong in TTs and looking very solid. I don't think he will close that gap. All other contenders have to do at this point is stick his wheel.

 

[talktoandy]

I personally think Contador will put in an amazing attack on Saturday. It's too important a stage not to attack and I think his knee will be better by then. He proved today his fitness level is getting better. I'm hoping to see some fireworks early on the plateau on Saturday. If it doesn't happen on Saturday, then I don't think he has a chance to win.

 

[El Pistolero]

Cadel Evans will lose 2 minutes on Plateau de Beille. It's written in the stars.

 

[maltiv]

I'm so glad that Contador raced the Giro, so we can get some excitement in the TDF! (the giro is good no matter what)

 

[Berzin]

What we cannot have are the contenders waiting until the last couple of kilometers of the remaining mountain stages to make attacks, but that is actually what Evans and Andy Schleck revel in.

Contador has to blow the barn doors off either on Saturday or the stage to Alpe d'Huez next week.

Evans so far is having an armchair ride into the yellow jersey, consolidating his position and not doing anything spectacular to win. He is riding like he always does, defensive and calculated like an accountant, especially when he did not answer Frank Schleck's attack, deciding to look over to see what Contador would do.

Regardless of who wins, only Contador can make this a great race. All the other contenders seem more than happy to just mark each other into oblivion, which is why I hope neither Evans nor Andy Schleck wins.

 

[turtlesoup]

Contador doesnt have to attack to make up time. He just has to not lose time. In a 41k ITT id be embarrassed to be contador and not beat schlek by 2-3 minutes. Its Evans he has to worry about and just prays Evans has one of his notoriously unlucky days.

 

[ImmaculateKadence]

Contador doesnt have to attack to make up time. He just has to not lose time. In a 41k ITT id be embarrassed to be contador and not beat schlek by 2-3 minutes. Its Evans he has to worry about and just prays Evans has one of his notoriously unlucky days.

He must attack. It is possible to gain that much time (he did it in the 2009 TT), but he is not in that good of form, and Andy has improved his TT. Last year, Contador only managed 31 seconds in a TT that was even longer. It's possible but he'll need to gain time one at least two stellar attacks and the TT. I don't think he has the legs. It'll be fun to watch though.

 

[the vagabond]

Evans so far is having an armchair ride into the yellow jersey, consolidating his position and not doing anything spectacular to win. He is riding like he always does, defensive and calculated like an accountant, especially when he did not answer Frank Schleck's attack, deciding to look over to see what Contador would do.


Must disagree. Hardly an armchair ride. I would say of all the top contenders Evans has been more offensive than ANY of the others, taking into account all stages. The fact that he did not launch an attack today or take up FS's wheel doesn't change that.

 

[hfer07]

Contador needs to survive stage 14, adn then have an great staege 18. The other mountain stages all have downhils and flats before the finish. If Contdor can hang in sight of the Schlecks on the climbs he will catch them on the descent. Andy for one is not a good descender.

Can't see Evans winning unless he has a truely great day in the mountains and the TT. Basso, well he could hang in there withh assorted people and end up in a good position. He is a rider who could attack on a descent and get a gap then TT to the end of a stage.

Basso is actually an average descender & TT'er -his forte is in the Mountains...

on topic: Can he win? yes--IF the knee issue isn't as grave as it appears-- & I believe he's going to put everything on a Kamikaze attack in the Alps & then finish it off with a good TT-which BTW suits him better than the last year's...

 

[rides like a girl]

Can he win? Sure. I hope he does. It won't be easy for all the stated reasons. I also would be surprised if Cadel doesn't have his typical bad day in a three week GT. We are also overdue for a Frank fall, the fall near the start couple days doesn't count. He usually has a good TV fall. Andy is also overdue for a silly/face palm bike handling error. Those are reasons that I also add to my reason for thinking it isn't over.

If he doesn't win, I hope a rider has attempted to win other big races this year wins. I hate the riders who just try in July. They spend the entire year doing training rides, while people spend time and money standing on the side of the road to see them race, and they soft pedal. I hate that plan! we have had too many years of that type of racer.

 

[warmfuzzies]

Contador doesnt have to attack to make up time. He just has to not lose time. In a 41k ITT id be embarrassed to be contador and not beat schlek by 2-3 minutes. Its Evans he has to worry about and just prays Evans has one of his notoriously unlucky days.

Disagree. It's been 2 years at the Tour since AC turned in an exceptional ITT. The only way to be confident in that kind of ITT is when he's producing the mountain watts sufficient to blow competitors away. He's got to successfully attack his competitors this Saturday to have a chance to win. If he's in the current position entering the ITT, odds are 50/50 he misses the podium.

 

[No_Balls]

Disagree. It's been 2 years at the Tour since AC turned in an exceptional ITT. The only way to be confident in that kind of ITT is when he's producing the mountain watts sufficient to blow competitors away. He's got to successfully attack his competitors this Saturday to have a chance to win. If he's in the current position entering the ITT, odds are 50/50 he misses the podium.

Stop blabbing about this "two-years-since". He hasn´t even ridden the second time-trial since last year which i assume you think was the time trial of his career.

 

[auscyclefan94]

I personally thought Contador was struggling a bit on the tourmalet and thought he was going to be dropped there but was surprised he hung on for so long.

 

[benpounder]

He still has a chance, its not like the Schlecks are known for their error free racing afterall.

I agree, but for the first time, we saw the brothers act as team-mates rather than brothers. Contador, Evans, and Basso will be hard pressed, without some outside coordination, to counter that kind of attacking plan. Whether brothers Schleck continue to ride smart is another question.

 

[Merckx index]

I've felt all along that the Giro would probably be too much to overcome, and that he would get weaker, not stronger, as the race proceeds. But Bert seems to indicate it's all about the knee, and that it's getting better:

http://www.as.com/ciclismo/articulo/contador-ahora-todos-tienen-fatiga/20110714dasdascic_1/Tes

My knee was bothering me a lot so I'm satisfied with the result..I'm almost sure that it's getting better every day and with a little ice I will be ready for Saturday...My pedal stroke was not so good...hence I lacked power, but the others really burned themselves out today and that's in my favor.

He seems to be saying that since his knee prevented him from pedaling with full power, he did not exhaust himself that much and will be more rested than the others.

But for those of you who think it could all change with one great ride: Bert has won 6 GTs, but only two of them by large, convincing margins: this year’s Giro and the 2009 TDF. In the latter, though he won by more than four minutes over AS, most of that margin was made in TTs (team and individual). He gained only slightly over one minute total on all the mountain stages.

To be fair, he did not try to drop AS on the final mountain stage, because with a large lead he didn’t have to do anything but stay with him. But on the previous mountain stage, when the race was still quite competitive, he tried to drop the brothers and couldn’t do it.

AFAIK, Bert has never taken as much as a minute out of Andy on any mountain stage they have raced, ever. That, I think, indicates as much as anything how difficult it will be for him to get back in the hunt, even forgetting Evans et al. Many people seem to think a completely healthy and fresh Bert could blow the race open on any one of the remaining three mountain stages. He might turn his situation around with a great ride, but I doubt very much he could blow the race open. He will almost certainly need two excellent MTF performances just to get the time differential down to where he could be fairly confident the remainder could be made up in the ITT.

 

[BYOP88]

Well that's some good PR spin, cos he looked tired when he crossed the line.

Oh a question/general wondering if anyone's interested; If Contador gained 13 seconds on Evans, Basso and baby Schleck today, what would they've have said at the end of the stage? Would it be along the lines that he's back in the game or that 13 seconds isn't really that great a gain.

Edit: I don't think Contador can win this years Tour but I think he can play a part in some losing it.

 

[warmfuzzies]

Stop blabbing about this "two-years-since". He hasn´t even ridden the second time-trial since last year which i assume you think was the time trial of his career.

I speak the truth. Contador hasn't been dominant in a TdF time trial in at least 2 years. Please keep trying to add something constructive to the forum.

 

[on3m@n@rmy]

Its a credit to Contador that he limited his losses to 15 seconds. I remember Nibali played this hang on trick till the last km in that VUelta stage where Purito took red and in the last k he lost about a minute. Basso Cadel and Andy were sprinting it down that final straight, clearly on better form and he limited it to 15 seconds.

Anyway i think if Contador didnt think he could win he would not do this Tour.

Probably wont win on Plateau but theres still a week till Galibier then Alpe and thats where Contador can win, if he rides himself into form and he has of course great recovery and then the tt.

That's just what I was thinking. His form might not be great at the moment, but if his form improves over the next few days, watch out Schleck's, Evans, Basso and everyone else.

 

[Damiano Machiavelli]

I speak the truth. Contador hasn't been dominant in a TdF time trial in at least 2 years. Please keep trying to add something constructive to the forum.

I seriously doubt you even watched a Tour de France or any other race that did not include Armstrong. Contador has put in numerous good time trials in the last two years. The only outlier is one ITT in last year's Tour. Andy Schleck on the other hand is a man who can lose 42 seconds to Contador in 8.9 kilometers.

 

[theswordsman]

I think he can. Leopard-Trek used their whole team until they were fried today for this success. There's no way they do it three times in a row. And different guys will show strength or weakness Friday and Saturday and today.

If Contador is a great, capable of a Giro Tour double, it means he's still not peaked yet for this one. If that happens next week, he's better than the Schlecks and Basso in the TT, and I think Cadel has been riding a peak since Stage one and will fall off form next week. I hope he has a good knee day on Saturday when other guys are whipped.

 

[on3m@n@rmy]

I speak the truth. Contador hasn't been dominant in a TdF time trial in at least 2 years...

Huh? This...
2009 Tour, stage 18, ITT, Winner: AC
I'll give you this tho, last year wasn't his best ITT result.

 

[SiAp1984]

Looks like he can't win it. Even if he gets in form/recovers, he still has to drop the Schlecks and Evans, who are looking very strong... Good for cycling and the Tour, that this race is wide open.

 

[blaxland]

Yes he can...But will he?Lets wait and see after the next two stages...Last nite indicated to me that Contador was having a bad day....And so was Andy...