discussion!!! contador

[AussieGoddess]

I think he can. Leopard-Trek used their whole team until they were fried today for this success. There's no way they do it three times in a row. And different guys will show strength or weakness Friday and Saturday and today.

If Contador is a great, capable of a Giro Tour double, it means he's still not peaked yet for this one. If that happens next week, he's better than the Schlecks and Basso in the TT, and I think Cadel has been riding a peak since Stage one and will fall off form next week. I hope he has a good knee day on Saturday when other guys are whipped.

I agree

I will be interested to see how using up the whole team will affect the Schlecks in the stages over the next few days.

I think Alberto can still win - but it will be hard.

I think Evans has as good a chance as he will ever get.

 

[sulgpallur]

I hope he can, but it will be hard if doesn't get better

 

[dlwssonic]

Basso, well he could hang in there with assorted people and end up in a good position. He is a rider who could attack on a descent and get a gap then TT to the end of a stage.

HAHAAHAH!!!! Joke of the year, just like parrulo said. basso must be on of the worst descenders in the peloton just watch the descent of the mortiloro. and his TT isnt great either.

 

[webvan]

No, he's already tired now so what is it going to be like in the Alps ? Last year Basso was flying in the Giro and he gradually petered out in the TDF...just as Spotted **** had predicted. Can't see why it would be any different for Contador this year.

If Evans doesn't fall it's hard to see how he could lose this one.

 

[dlwssonic]

No, he's already tired now so what is it going to be like in the Alps ? Last year Basso was flying in the Giro and he gradually petered out in the TDF...just as Spotted **** had predicted. Can't see why it would be any different for Contador this year.

If Evans doesn't fall it's hard to see how he could lose this one.

he isnt as strong in the mountains so to me he isnt the favorite to win. Its the schlecks. But if he is to win he has to limit his losses against the schlecks and maybe basso in the mountains.

 

[Midnightfright]

he isnt as strong in the mountains so to me he isnt the favorite to win. Its the schlecks. But if he is to win he has to limit his losses against the schlecks and maybe basso in the mountains.

He looked very good yesterday and im becoming a little bit more of a believer, I Di think he will lose a minute plus on atleast one of the Schlecks and that's his problem is he needs to be concerned with both and not just 1 . Im not sure how much time he can expect to take on thenm in the TT but u think it may be a bout 1 minute 30. As for Contador I fear the attacks will come earlier on Saturday and he will lose a larger chunk of time, the fact that hes still in fontenrion after that Giro is a credit to the man.

 

[webvan]

he isnt as strong in the mountains so to me he isnt the favorite to win. Its the schlecks. But if he is to win he has to limit his losses against the schlecks and maybe basso in the mountains.

I don't really see anyone putting a lot of time into Evans in the mountains at this point and in the ITT he can probably make up 1.5/2 minutes on the Schlecks, Basso, Cunego. His only GC threats in the ITT are an in-form Contador and Leppy and Kloden, and the last two are out of contention for this year.

 

[python]

if all the objective data (particularly the poor historical record of doing the tour-giro double in 1 year) could be loaded into a heartless computer, i am sure, the answer would be a strong negative - ‘no he can’t‘.

not only he needs to overcome the apparent current (small tbh) weakness, he also needs to equal and then surpass his rivals in day-to-day recovery racing injured against uninjured.

the lady luck may indeed smile at him after so much misfortune and perhaps take 1-2 of his rivals out.

but hoping that basso, the schlecks, evans, cunego..all will suddenly start crashing or bonking is unrealistic.

what’s left is the uniqueness of the great champion contador undoubtedly is.

and..(nah the stuff we shouldn’t talk about).

if contador will have managed a podium in these circumstances, i will consider it a great achievement regardless...

 

[Lanark]

Come to think of it, this Tour resembles the 2008 one quite a lot. No prologue, finish on Super-Besse, first Pyrenees features the Tourmalet with a mountain that's a little easier right after that (with Hautacam in 2008 and Luz-Ardiden in 2011, and Jens Voigt setting the pace on the Tourmalet both times), Schleck the elder being the strongest/least targeted of the GC-favorites in the first MTF. And it appears we'll have another situation of Evans going up against the numerical superiority of the Schleck-brothers. Will it end this year with a showdown on the Alpe as well? And who will be this year's Sastre?

 

[the asian]

Alberto can win. Not sure he will. Anyway Andy Schleck seems the loser type. I dont think he has the killer instinct to win. Lets wait till stage 14 and see if contador looses more time. If he looses time on saturday winning the tour will be Very diffcult for him.

 

[the asian]

Come to think of it, this Tour resembles the 2008 one quite a lot. No prologue, finish on Super-Besse, first Pyrenees features the Tourmalet with a mountain that's a little easier right after that (with Hautacam in 2008 and Luz-Ardiden in 2011, and Jens Voigt setting the pace on the Tourmalet both times), Schleck the elder being the strongest/least targeted of the GC-favorites in the first MTF. And it appears we'll have another situation of Evans going up against the numerical superiority of the Schleck-brothers. Will it end this year with a showdown on the Alpe as well? And who will be this year's Sastre?

Ivan Basso.

 

[webvan]

Except he's not on the same team as the Schlecks...

Come to think of it, this Tour resembles the 2008 one quite a lot. No prologue, finish on Super-Besse, first Pyrenees features the Tourmalet with a mountain that's a little easier right after that (with Hautacam in 2008 and Luz-Ardiden in 2011, and Jens Voigt setting the pace on the Tourmalet both times), Schleck the elder being the strongest/least targeted of the GC-favorites in the first MTF. And it appears we'll have another situation of Evans going up against the numerical superiority of the Schleck-brothers. Will it end this year with a showdown on the Alpe as well? And who will be this year's Sastre?

All good points, the big difference though is that, so far at least, Evans hasn't taken a massive tumble that's left him bruised and scraped. Without that he would have won 2008 no doubt. And this year Schlecket didn't bonk on the last climb.

The good news for Evans too is that with Basso and Cunego in good shape he won't be left alone to close the gaps when the Schlecks go for their 1/2 games.

Tomorrow will be interesting because the Aubisque is far from the finish but it's pretty much dowhill all the way after, so in effect it's almost like a summit finish as far as the GC is concerned. Not many good descenders this year other than Sanchez, Evans has to be the best GC descender?

 

[Cimber]

He can but I dont think he will.

The giro+the knee is just to much. He is no longer a favorite, but an outsider.

Evans is a really good position atm. If he only loses 20-30sec on each MTF he will be able to get that back on the TT.

 

[Midnightfright]

I don't really see anyone putting a lot of time into Evans in the mountains at this point and in the ITT he can probably make up 1.5/2 minutes on the Schlecks, Basso, Cunego. His only GC threats in the ITT are an in-form Contador and Leppy and Kloden, and the last two are out of contention for this year.

if u court him as a GC guy u would have to throw Wiggans in there as well. Although Evans TT seems less potent the Schlecks and Basso should look to take atleast a 2 minute lead into it

 

[Cimber]

I'm unconvinced AC can take ITT time from Evans or Basso. .

You gotta be kidding? Basso suck balls on a TT. Agree regarding Evans though.

 

[webvan]

Yep, lost his ITT legs since 2006...

if u court him as a GC guy u would have to throw Wiggans in there as well. Although Evans TT seems less potent the Schlecks and Basso should look to take atleast a 2 minute lead into it

Right, unfortunately Wiggins is gone, too bad because it's likely he would have been in a good position today as there's no reason to think he wouldn't have done as well as Voeckler who couldn't keep up with him in the Dauphiné most of the time.

 

[El Pistolero]

Frank Schleck didn't actually ride all that fast. If Contador recovers from the Giro, there will be no contest.

 

[Jan the Man]

Now that his odds have drifted I've put some money on him.

Never bet against a champion. Only Basso/Cunego have won a GT other than Conti of the ones in the mix. Basso is the big threat still. He is looking in very very good shape and Szmyd could do some serious damage for him on Stage 14.

 

[dlwssonic]

Frank Schleck didn't actually ride all that fast. If Contador recovers from the Giro, there will be no contest.

its was not as if the other gc contenders were going all out either they were all watching each other.

 

[Contre la montre]

He can win but he won't and Paris is still very far.

 

[Contre la montre]

Now that his odds have drifted I've put some money on him.

Never bet against a champion. Only Basso/Cunego have won a GT other than Conti of the ones in the mix. Basso is the big threat still. He is looking in very very good shape and Szmyd could do some serious damage for him on Stage 14.

Agreed on Basso. Pre-tour I put money on him 40-1 it's down to 15-1 now. I also got Cunego to podium at 50-1 that one is 9-1 now.

 

[Ryo Hazuki]

Contador needs to survive stage 14, adn then have an great staege 18. The other mountain stages all have downhils and flats before the finish. If Contdor can hang in sight of the Schlecks on the climbs he will catch them on the descent. Andy for one is not a good descender.

Can't see Evans winning unless he has a truely great day in the mountains and the TT. Basso, well he could hang in there withh assorted people and end up in a good position. He is a rider who could attack on a descent and get a gap then TT to the end of a stage.

andy is a fine descender, not much worse than contador, we saw that last year

the thing you say about basso and descent is even more ridiculous, pls don't talk when you have no idea about the sport you are talking about. you look like a tool here

 

[Ryo Hazuki]

His brother is 38 seconds ahead of him I think it's time to start talking about Frank.

And don't give me the bull**** of not wanting to chase his own brother. Frank chased Andy at Verbier.

frank needs 2 minutes on andy and 4-5 on contador. he won't even podium

 

[Ryo Hazuki]

He must attack. It is possible to gain that much time (he did it in the 2009 TT), but he is not in that good of form, and Andy has improved his TT. Last year, Contador only managed 31 seconds in a TT that was even longer. It's possible but he'll need to gain time one at least two stellar attacks and the TT. I don't think he has the legs. It'll be fun to watch though.

where exactly? he sucked in every itt he rode this year, including in this years tour ttt. pathetic sight it was

 

[Swabian Lass]

He can still win, but I'm not sure that he will. I'm hoping for a scenario where the Schlecks are so busy watching Contador that Basso or Evans can come through while they're not looking.

BTW - I'm not convinced that L-Trek burnt off their team. Looked more like they were dropping back before they burned out to save their legs to me. Anyway Jens doesn't do burnout.