Re: Nick Willis - its easy to spot the cheats!!
Dear Wiggo said:
More Strides than Rides said:
More than any other event, the 1500m has the weakest relationship between fitness and finishing place. Like Paris-Roubaix in the rain. Sure, it's easier when you're stronger, but it is no guarantee. So, more than any other event, in my opinion, it is possible for a clean athlete to podium.
That's interesting. Actually, I'd say it surprising. Do you have any handle on the physiological reason for this? The times are not too far off 4km IP times (3.5 vs < 4.5 mins) and in the track world, IP medals are almost guaranteed.
The stand out anomaly there is the Dutch rider pinged at the same time as Hayles, but that explanation is obvious.
Do you think it's perhaps the depth of the competition is so much greater in T&F (just need shorts and shoes), where as track cycling is more like a Comm games event in terms of depth (where you need an indoor track to really train year round)?
I don't think it has much to do with physiology.
400m and below, everything is in lanes. Runners may have different tactics, but it is all individual. Positioning, drafting, boxing in, etc. is not an issue.
The 800m and 1500m are not, obviously. These races also feature much more level playing fields. That is to say, in addition to the max of 3 (or 4 in WCs) runners for Kenya and Ethiopia, the best from nations like the US, Spain, Algeria, and the best individuals from Europe are on par. The US, UK/Germany/France/Poland, Spain, Morocco, etc. send guys who are 3:30.x, and 1:43 or faster, just like Kenya and Ethiopia.
That is not the case in the 5000m and 10000m, where the best 3 from East African nations Kenya, Ethiopia, Qatar/Bahrain (Kenyan heritage), are soo much farther ahead than the best non-africans.
So, in the 5000m and 10000m, the relative form of the finalists is pretty wide. There is a big gap between the strongest and weakest runner in the field. As the race plays out then, whether fast or slow, only the stronger guys emerge at the front. There is usually a longer wind-up, really stretching things out, and minimizing traffic over the last 1000m.
Compare that then to the 1500m, where 12 guys will go into the last lap, all being 3:28,3:29, or 3:30 guys. Everyone is capable, being pretty equal in strength, and are there fighting for the same positions. Fast or slow, every runner will be in contention, and every runner is using the same tactic, kick hard when the kicking starts. A lot more friction, and a lot more potential for randomness in the way positioning emerges.
In the 800m, even though the playing field is equal, it is much less chaotic. Only 8 runners, and it is short enough where flying and dying (aka front running) can be a successful tactic. The race almost always features someone to stretch things out from the beginning. Even in a slow race, there isn't much bunching up; the speed is still too high to accelerate sharply mid race (the kind you see 1500m runners do, go from last to 3rd in a straightaway in the 2nd and 3rd lap. This race is a good example:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4TANckAdSWQ. Watch it a second time, and only focus on the back half of the race, and see how often they will rotate to the front half, to be rotated back again.)
Just my observations. Doping still matters, as it will always be easier to think, decide, and execute when you are the most prepped athlete in the field.
FWIW, I think that Manzano, (Silver in 2012), is clean. He has a fast PR, but performs so inconsistently, a refreshing realism of training/racing that is missing in the top tiers of athletics. I'm growing more skeptical of Willis because of his recent performances. Clean or not, he does espouse the right attitude ("all of us should be suspected. We must make every effort to create a reason for fans to believe otherwise.") that it is now the athlete's responsibility to prove cleanliness. I wish I didn't have a "them dirty Africans" perception, but there is just too much evidence to the contrary. I want to judge each athlete as individuals, but the federation and camp system, with their doping culture, make that too hard to do.
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