Cloxxki said:
I envy and believe you.
Lack of recovery IMU means that endurance performance should be leading, unless the slowest ones are spared by the pace set, or drafting is a factor at least as great as the difference between the lead tempo and the weakest link able to hang on.
As for Domracheva being so much slower in a junior race compared to Neuner... The ski prep is a factor there, and Neuner was already a WorldCup contender als a junior. Ready for the big leagues early on. To be of equal talent, one cannot demand to be equallly fast at the same undevelopped age. Neuner likely got access to the very best skis for her worlds, not so sure she'd be ready to swap with Domracheva's pre race. In any case, if a bike rider were to get 7th in an ITT at junior age, we'd not dismiss them to win senior worlds later in life. Already at that age, there are lot sof variables to be optimized. Neuner was ready to beat any woman on skis in 2006, not the typical junior performance. Now her eeeaaarly retirement raised my eyebrows some. I was and am a fan, but it's just weird. He style was very Gunda Niemann like. Strength, inefficient, but fast. She'd called for more OoC doping testing, but quit early when she was still among the best, and learning to shoot.
Goessner, I seem to remember was off the pace last year. If she'd really be as fast as people said, she'd be like a Neuner. Empty rifle in the air, and ski to win.
I hope someone will agree or disagree with me, but I get itchy from Makarainen's (albeit consistent) speed, while I can understand/justify Domracheva's. Skiing is different from cycling. There actually is an edge to be had by skiing smooth. Lars Berger showed that for over a decade. No apparent strength or power, just grace. Domracheva takes it a level further. If only it's because she's a fine fine woman. When she hauls in a competitors, it always looks like a swan catching up with a duckling. And eagle catching up with a crow, yet the scale it the same. She's totally average in build as far as I can tell. The smooth is just like a video game. She's a dancer, impaccable stability and balance. Where Neuner always looked a bit chubby, Domracheva is a bit skinny, yet ony semi-toned. Neuner would be doing a V2 with such strength impulse. that her poles would be in a V2alt rythm. For non-skiers, her cadance was so low that her poles made a long complete swing between skate strides. No grace, just muscle. Again, Gunda Niemann like in my book. Youtube her. As much as I love angel face Neuner, I would be uncomfortable vouching for her. That retirement is just weird. Would not be totally surprised to hear it was a deal with the German biathlon union having footnotes about her blood values.
I'm going to say that I feel you're very harsh on Gößner here. She's seriously quick, on form. She posted the 2nd fastest ski times at Östersund, and at times in the 2010-11 season only Neuner could outski her, at 20-21 years of age. She had surgery to fix intestinal knotting in summer 2011, and didn't perform up to that standard in 2011-12, but she has the potential to be one of the fastest if not THE fastest on the skis if she gets things right.
The major problem she has is that it is way too easy to plug her in to the "new Neuner" role. She's young, she's blonde, she's pretty, she's from the same place (Neuner's from Wallgau, a village in the Garmisch-Partenkirchen municipality, Gößner's from Garmisch itself), she's fast at skiing and terrible at shooting, and she used to be Neuner's roommate. Far too easy to compare, which puts plenty of pressure on those shoulders, which can also slump pretty dramatically when things go wrong - just look at her body language after the shooting meltdown at Pokljuka in 2010. She has two problems in comparison to Neuner, and they're big ones.
1) she isn't as fast as Neuner;
2) she isn't as good a shot as Neuner.
The first is no great criticism - apart from Domracheva, who can we honestly say is? On her day, Gößner has outpaced all of the people participating in the World Cup today, so it isn't unreasonable to expect that she can do so again. From 45th in the pursuit on Sunday, she was up to around 12th-13th before losing several places due to bad shooting at the final round. The second is a major problem; Neuner, for all the criticism she took for her shooting, has never been a
bad shot from prone. Her standing shooting only ever really got sorted out in the last year or two of her career, but she's always been OK in prone. Gößner shoots slowly, in addition to her problems with accuracy. Remember, she's still only 22 - there is no reason whatsoever to abandon hope for her breaking out for at least another couple of years. Being the second quickest skier in Östersund may have been surprising based on her 2011-12 performances, but is nothing out of the ordinary if we judge against her 2010-11 performances and then remember that Neuner isn't there anymore.
Kaisa is an interesting one. I'd always figured she was fast on the skis, and so when she changed her shooting training and reaped the rewards in the offseason 2010, and suddenly became this unbeatable force at Östersund and Hochfilzen, I raised my eyebrows but wrote it off as being the product of the improved shooting, because her skiing was always good. I used her as a comparison in my post about Bradley Wiggins' ITT, actually, because it was then shown to me that in fact her ski times (well, her ski rankings in terms relative to competition) had improved, and she was in the top 5 ski times more frequently, but it was easier to buy because the improvement in her shooting had been so dramatic. Just as how the focus on the improvement in Wiggins' climbing meant we didn't focus on how much his ITT had improved, as we all knew he had been an ITT specialist, so that didn't raise eyebrows. But when you're competing for winning races and the overall World Cup, you're more willing to push yourself than when you're competing for 15th; it's just basic human nature (although towards the end of the season 15th in the World Cup total score takes on some importance in biathlon of course, with the funding).
I also don't see Neuner's retirement as weird. The world of biathlon is fairly small; she's already achieved all she could ever hope to unless she just gets off on compiling statistical records like Michael Schumacher. The pressure on her to perform from German press is quite high, and the reward is increasingly less when it's no longer a new aim. I can buy that as a valid and viable reason.
What's more, I don't see Dasha's ski speed as weird either. She was quick but inconsistent when she first came to the scene, and is still only 26. Yes, there are some moments that stand out, like when she was chased down by Marie-Laure Brunet when leading the Mass Start in Antholz in 2010-11, that seem pretty incongruous when thinking about how she's now seen as likely the strongest skier. But she wasn't the strongest skier at Östersund 2011, and it was only as the season went on that she went from being one of a group of quick skiers behind Neuner to being undisputably the fastest skier not named "Magdalena Neuner" and sometimes being the fastest skier even including those named "Magdalena Neuner". Bearing in mind the biathlon season is pretty short compared to, say, cycling, working out peaking and so on is different too. She finished the 2010-11 season in very strong form at Khantiy and Holmenkollen, and arrived in similar form at the start of 2011-12, then getting stronger. Her performing so well at the beginning of the season didn't raise eyebrows the way, say, Synnøve Solemdal did when she went from finishing 17th with no penalties at the end of 2010-11 to outskiing Neuner at Östersund in 2011-12.
There are links that can be drawn, and perhaps should, for sure. Mäkäräinen's coach and his history might draw some unwanted attention to improvements in her performance, for sure. And Pichler's comments about Domracheva's improvements may have some significance. But just looking at their performances and improvements here and there, I don't see anything that I would call BS on the way we sometimes do with huge breakout performances or comical domination.