roundabout said:
I'd be more concerned about a certain other country in biathlon.
Which one? There are quite a few that could raise some concerns if you look into it, but a lot of mitigating factors too.
Norway:
OEB is 40+ and still skiing with the best. Solemdal's transformed to a star and then back again. Mitigating factor, she's prone to illness and clearly isn't over whatever her last issue was. He trains by himself and because of who he is, that's accepted by the team.
Finland:
Their one star is absolutely slaughtering the field. Mitigating factor, she's been one of the fastest skiers for the last five years, but she's shooting well now, like in 2010-11.
Russia:
They've had three relatively high profile drugs busts recently, along with a 28yo Olympic medal winner retiring suddenly and a 26yo Olympic medal winner taking a year's break with no pregnancy, illness or injury. Mitigating factor: Ustyugov was never going to beat the Svendsens and Fourcades of the world and with the strength in depth in the squad, his motivation was waning. Their women are slow skiers and have been for years.
Germany:
They have a sudden emergence of a number of young talented women and that paper-thin squad now looks relatively strong, while the men are clustering up there. Mitigating factor: the men appear to be performing at their level. Among the women, Dahlmeier and Preuss were seen as guaranteed stars from a young age because of their performances as Juniors, same as JT Bø. The other young women shoot well but ski poorly. In the longer skiing races, they've been nowhere.
Austria:
They rise and fall as a nation; ski times collapsed a few years ago, then came back up together in unison. Mitigating factor: changing of the guards in coaching staff, have convinced athletes who were expected to retire to stay on.
Ukraine:
Their women rose very fast when trained by Korol'kevich, but now the team is gutted; Vita Semerenko and Pidhrushna are both out, and the stream of Russian nation-changers seems to have ceased. Burdyga is a known doper of course. Mitigating factor: Vita's out because of a spinal injury. Valj hasn't really had any change in fortunes.
Czech Republic:
They had a very clear improvement year on year into 2012-13; Moravec has become a late blooming star (Slesingr was already a podium athlete, if inconsistent, before that). Soukup seems to pop up out of nowhere at major events, like Maksimov used to. Mitigating factor: prize money begets attention begets funding begets improved performance. Once Soukalová started getting wins (additional mitigating factor for her, 2011-12 she missed much of the season with mono) the rest of the team's results seemed to improve.
Italy:
Gottlieb Taschler stories at present notwithstanding, they have seen a significant step up from their women in the last two years. Mitigating factor: Wierer was a hugely successful junior, and so was Vittozzi.
France:
Sudden retirements of athletes whose results have fallen off a cliff (Jay, Bœuf), unbridled dominance of Martin Fourcade, emergence of talented young women with loss of Brunet and Dorin-Habert. Mitigating factor: Latuillière wasn't a can't miss talent, admittedly, but Braisaz might be.
Poland:
Sudden emergence of women's team as a unit late in 2012-13 despite most having been around the World Cup for years beforehand. Disappearance back to nowhere again soon after. Mitigating factor: that came after a massive reallocation of funding following Sikora's retirement. As other teams' funding stepped up in the Olympic cycle, they were left behind.
Belarus:
Darya's crazy speed, large scale improvements in Skardino over the last couple of years. Mitigating factor: their relay has always been one thing short of the podium, usually Dubarezava's standing shoot. Attention brought to the sport by Domracheva's success will massively increase exposure and funding.
There are a lot of different things to suspect, and a lot of different factors to be taken into account.