- Jun 22, 2010
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You really have to wonder about Dahlmeier. Every year, multiple times per year, she gets sick, misses training, misses racing and then magically appears to make podiums. If it happens once or twice, ok, but this much? Not normal...
- Jun 30, 2014
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Yes, the German Wunderhamster always coming out of hibernation at the right time and always being sick is getting a bit comical.frenchfry said:
- Jun 22, 2010
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frenchfry said:
Either the Russians have the worst doping mechanisms and tools/and are talentless or the ones at the top have everything going for them.
Boe and Loginov raced together in the juniors. They were neck and neck, as they have been so far this season (with Boe obviously coming out on top most of the time). Loginov was caught in November 2013, served his ban and now is skiing better than ever. This is about where one expects both of them to be, consistently. If Loginov can fix a couple things and gain some more confidence, he'll start winning.
Point is, if Loginov is still doping, then what is Boe on? There is no way one of them isn't doping when the other one is.
ps, I get your sacrasm
- Jun 7, 2010
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Mayomaniac said:
I am not a sjw and not that you would really care, but honestly I expected better from you...
- Jun 7, 2010
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BullsFan22 said:
I am sure that everyone who have ever beaten Ramon Carretero must have been doping as well...
- Jun 22, 2010
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roundabout said:
Norwegians sure are defensive when someone questions their team's results...
- Mar 13, 2009
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This is an excellent question! Acknowledging that Russians have a deeply rooted and ongoing doping culture is in no way suggesting that the Norwegians (or others) are clean. Quite the contrary - a hit of ventolin anybody, athsma optional!BullsFan22 said:
The nice thing about Loginov is that we can call him a doper without engaging in speculation.
@Bullsfanwhy have you omitted eventuality Loginov isn' doping anymore? That would make sense actually. Boe and Loginov were, as you say, neck and neck, then Loginov was caught so he isn't doping anymore = logicaly Boe is now better.BullsFan22 said:
- Aug 29, 2016
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What if most of Y-O-Y changes and performance trends of individual XC skiers can be explained by non-PED related factors and one can't conclude too much about who dopes and who doesn't by performance alone?
Whereas blood doping researchers such as Tapio Videman that Jim Stray-Gundersen have been very cynical about the state of sports, both have maintained that half of the 2001 XC FIS championships medallists weren't blood because their blood showed no significant abnormalities.
That was the pre-ABP era when it was possible to elevate Hb close to 20/dl (Hct close to 60 %) and dilute it below the cutoff limit of 17.5 g/dl with saline infusions.
Whereas blood doping researchers such as Tapio Videman that Jim Stray-Gundersen have been very cynical about the state of sports, both have maintained that half of the 2001 XC FIS championships medallists weren't blood because their blood showed no significant abnormalities.
That was the pre-ABP era when it was possible to elevate Hb close to 20/dl (Hct close to 60 %) and dilute it below the cutoff limit of 17.5 g/dl with saline infusions.
- Sep 25, 2009
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aragon, performance alone has never been nor is likely to lead to an official doping offense. that much is clear. yet people are free to speculate using the various more or less objective/subjective observations.
moreover, i know for a fact that various anti-doping bodies actively use the actual performance flags and deltas to place athletes on their target lists for increased scrutiny and testing.they don't advertise their formal performance evaluation methods, but occasionally during a doping panel proceedings, particularly if it was open, one can hear the elements of the model. i personally always comb the official cas verdicts for such clues. it is also true that some sports render themselves easier to performance evaluation than others. also, the suspicions originating from some insiders, including athletes themselves, the coaches and particularly the medical/scientific staff are worth a good consideration compared to a random poster here.
all in all i listen to insiders w/o necessarily stopping there...
moreover, i know for a fact that various anti-doping bodies actively use the actual performance flags and deltas to place athletes on their target lists for increased scrutiny and testing.they don't advertise their formal performance evaluation methods, but occasionally during a doping panel proceedings, particularly if it was open, one can hear the elements of the model. i personally always comb the official cas verdicts for such clues. it is also true that some sports render themselves easier to performance evaluation than others. also, the suspicions originating from some insiders, including athletes themselves, the coaches and particularly the medical/scientific staff are worth a good consideration compared to a random poster here.
all in all i listen to insiders w/o necessarily stopping there...
- Mar 29, 2016
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Re:
The problem is to estimate how huge the blood doping boost can be if around 50 % of the medalists were presumably clean and could compete succesfully against athletes who have increased their total Hb mass some 25 % above their natural level? It is a matter of opinion, but assuming that Videman and Stray-Gundersen are right, I find it difficult for the boost to be more than 1-3 % because:
1) While there are a few outliers, the differences between different elite athletes should be so small that blood dopers would win almost every medal with a speed boost of - say 5 %.
2) The athletes finishing 31-40 were only some 5 % slower than the medalist. Because only a few of them had blood abnormalities, a majority of them were clean, but they were surprisingly little slower than the "dirty" top 10 or so if you take into account the natural difference + blood doping boost. Of course them being 31-40 is a result of dopers ourperforming them in the first place, but the spread isn't enormously huge.
Correspondingly if the boost (during the ABP era) is lowish, it is difficult to know exactly what factors have caused the performance of a given athlete to be such and such particularly in the winter endurance sports where there are so much non-PED related factors affecting the outcome such as altitude, route, equipment, weather, illness, weather changes during race, wrong/correct wax etc.
Of course I do agree that performance can indicate PED use particularly in events where the conditions are similar and there are many attempts in the event quite regularly (100m/800m running, field athletics etc). As you mentioned, the more there is noise in the data, the more difficult it is to draw conclusions from the data.python said:
The problem is to estimate how huge the blood doping boost can be if around 50 % of the medalists were presumably clean and could compete succesfully against athletes who have increased their total Hb mass some 25 % above their natural level? It is a matter of opinion, but assuming that Videman and Stray-Gundersen are right, I find it difficult for the boost to be more than 1-3 % because:
1) While there are a few outliers, the differences between different elite athletes should be so small that blood dopers would win almost every medal with a speed boost of - say 5 %.
2) The athletes finishing 31-40 were only some 5 % slower than the medalist. Because only a few of them had blood abnormalities, a majority of them were clean, but they were surprisingly little slower than the "dirty" top 10 or so if you take into account the natural difference + blood doping boost. Of course them being 31-40 is a result of dopers ourperforming them in the first place, but the spread isn't enormously huge.
Correspondingly if the boost (during the ABP era) is lowish, it is difficult to know exactly what factors have caused the performance of a given athlete to be such and such particularly in the winter endurance sports where there are so much non-PED related factors affecting the outcome such as altitude, route, equipment, weather, illness, weather changes during race, wrong/correct wax etc.
- Mar 13, 2009
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It's too bad Shipulin doesn't direct some of his anger towards his country's sports ministry and sporting organisations who have managed extensive doping programs and manipulated anti-doping labs to hide their crimes. Even if Shipulin was and is clean, he should understand why any Russian athlete can legitimately be suspected of doping.
It's not only Rodchenkov's revelations that have been considered in accusing Russia of systematic and state run doping practices, the proof goes far beyond that and the cover-up is ongoing. I have trouble considering Shipulin as the victim he makes himself out to be.
It's not only Rodchenkov's revelations that have been considered in accusing Russia of systematic and state run doping practices, the proof goes far beyond that and the cover-up is ongoing. I have trouble considering Shipulin as the victim he makes himself out to be.
- Feb 20, 2010
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If one is clean, then it is easy to see why somebody would lose motivation when all of their achievements will be discredited and devalued by association because of where one is from, and with several illnesses to boot, any performance drop-off will be likely attributed to doping even where it is not present.
If one is not clean, then it is easy to see why somebody would lose motivation when they're likely about to get caught or at least have to tone it down, and any performance drop-off will likely be attributed to doping whether or not it's present.
A few of the premature retirements we've seen in recent years have been partly due to not wanting to play the game anymore - Ustyugov could easily have kept going for a good few years, Vilukhina likewise - plus the endless cycle of selection race + World Cup trimester + selection race + World Cup trimester means athletes get overworked even if doping isn't a factor - Olga Podchufarova effectively retired at 25 because of burnout, and she wasn't named at all in McLaren. At 31, Shipulin would likely be headed to the tail end of his peak years regardless and with so much of the team's expectations having been on his shoulders for the last Olympic cycle, perhaps Loginov's showings this season has meant he'll be allowed to let go. There is something of a pattern of established athletes retiring quietly a little into a season when they realise the spark is gone - Michael Greis, Vincent Jay and Olga Zaitseva all in recent memory.
If one is not clean, then it is easy to see why somebody would lose motivation when they're likely about to get caught or at least have to tone it down, and any performance drop-off will likely be attributed to doping whether or not it's present.
A few of the premature retirements we've seen in recent years have been partly due to not wanting to play the game anymore - Ustyugov could easily have kept going for a good few years, Vilukhina likewise - plus the endless cycle of selection race + World Cup trimester + selection race + World Cup trimester means athletes get overworked even if doping isn't a factor - Olga Podchufarova effectively retired at 25 because of burnout, and she wasn't named at all in McLaren. At 31, Shipulin would likely be headed to the tail end of his peak years regardless and with so much of the team's expectations having been on his shoulders for the last Olympic cycle, perhaps Loginov's showings this season has meant he'll be allowed to let go. There is something of a pattern of established athletes retiring quietly a little into a season when they realise the spark is gone - Michael Greis, Vincent Jay and Olga Zaitseva all in recent memory.
Aragon said:
Wrong.
"Of the skiers tested and finishing within the top 50 places in the competitions, 17% had "highly abnormal" hematologic profiles, 19% had "abnormal" values, and 64% were normal. Fifty percent of medal winners and 33% of those finishing from 4th to 10th place had highly abnormal hematologic profiles. In contrast, only 3% of skiers finishing from 41st to 50th place had highly abnormal values."
There are 3 categories:
"Highly abnormal"
"Abnormal"
"Normal"
Fifty percent of medal winners had "highly abnormal hematologic profiles". What percentage were "normal"? We' don't know.
- Jun 22, 2010
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Re:
Neuner as well, though she stated before that 2012 season started that she would retire that she would retire afte the last WC in March.
Libertine Seguros said:
Neuner as well, though she stated before that 2012 season started that she would retire that she would retire afte the last WC in March.
- Feb 20, 2010
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I didn't mention Neuner for a couple of reasons; while perhaps Lena "didn't want to play the game anymore", that part of my post was specifically to do with the Russians and their perception problem (that if he's clean, Shipulin may have grown tired of guilt by association, and if he's not clean, he isn't willing to continue the lie), and while she did retire young, she neither got burnt out young like Podchufarova or Marie-Laure Brunet, nor dropped away in her level to the point where she was at the point of retiring quietly mid-season like Jay or Greis. Neuner's premature retirement had a pretty uniquely perfect convergence of factors - her personality not being that of the driven type, and that she immediately then started a family, meant people could buy her not chasing statistical records; she'd achieved all there was to achieve in the sport bar those statistical records; she was afforded by serendipitous coincidence, with the World Championships being in Ruhpolding in 2012, the chance to retire at home and on top of her game. She wasn't somebody who chased mainstream star attention, but she had that star appeal. That may have meant that she would have burnt out young, through having been burdened with expectations and commitments from an early age, especially after Vancouver when the older unit, Henkel excepted, retired en masse, but she got out before we could find out if that was the case.
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Not wrong at least according to Stray-Gundersen and Videman, because here is how they described their own study:John de Savage said:
Jim Stray-Gundersen (2006): ”Half the people who won medals were clean”.
Tapio Videman (2011) answering the question "Are there clean athletes at the top": "Of course. For example, Half of the medals of the 2001 ended up to clean athletes.
We do know, because the material was published in 2003. 12 out of 25 had normal hematological profile and 1 out of 25 had abnormal profile, so that makes it roughly half. Here is a link to the PDF-file:John de Savage said:
http://www.svtstatic.se/image-cms/svtse/1518015484/svts/article16931346.svt/BINARY/Abnormal_Hematologic_Profiles_in_Elite.2.pdf
It is totally true that there have been allegations about something fishy going on with the few missing samples. As one interesting anecdote, both Stray-Gundersen and Videman became somewhat cynical about the anti-doping work later because no action was taken against the known dopers of 2001 and Videman has maintained that the entire anti-doping testing system should be abolished altogether.
- Mar 13, 2009
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Natalia Nepryaeva wins the Toblach 10km at the Tour de Ski.
Along with Bolshunov, Chervotkin, and Spitsov she is coached by Yuri Borodavko, once suspended for doping offenses.
Spitsov hadn't even competed in a World Cup race until December 2017 (Davos) but a few months later won two Olympic silver medals and a bronze.
I would love to believe that the new generation of Russians are clean, but…
Along with Bolshunov, Chervotkin, and Spitsov she is coached by Yuri Borodavko, once suspended for doping offenses.
Spitsov hadn't even competed in a World Cup race until December 2017 (Davos) but a few months later won two Olympic silver medals and a bronze.
I would love to believe that the new generation of Russians are clean, but…
So, take this horeeever you want it. I heard a rumor from someone in my extended family who’s in the business of energy drinks. I totally trust them who told it to me (we’ve had several discussion about doping) and I don’t think it’s too far fetched either. They don’t follow cross country skiing very much hence why I think they don’t care etc.
So, one “friend” (was involved romantically with one) to them said that he got his drug from the same person as Gunde Swahn did. So, merry Christmas and a happy new year to you all.
So, one “friend” (was involved romantically with one) to them said that he got his drug from the same person as Gunde Swahn did. So, merry Christmas and a happy new year to you all.
Aragon said:
Thanks for the clarification, but having a Hb below 16.4 and retics below 2.9 is not very strong evidence of cleanliness, even before the ABP. Look at Rasmussen and Landis.
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We don't know whether that is their only evidence of cleanliness of the twelve or so athletes, only that two of the more cynical scientists of the 2003 paper draw that conclusion from the available evidence (I would take the public opinion of Lereim with a pinch of salt).John de Savage said:
Videman, Stray-Gundersen et al. looked beyond just ret. and Hb in the 2003 published paper and because (as far as I know) they also knew each individual blood data of each of the participant, so they simultaneously knew also how close to the limits their presumably "clean" were and whether the athletes were just below the limits or not.
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