Early prediction: Garmin's 2012 TDF top 10'er

[theyoungest]

Can't see how this can be considered a surprise, many people said all along that if Danielson managed to keep healthy for 3 weeks then he'd be top 10 at the TDF. Not by any means the most surprising top 10 from the latest years, not even close...

That was rather a big 'if' in Tommy D's case.

 

[Ruudz0r]

He has a big Irish fan base even though he's British. To be fair he stands no chance of a top 10, maybe top 30.

As a D Martin fan I hope he wont ride the tour and saves his energie for other races. But indeed top 10 on this parcours is a no go for D Martin.

 

[Kwibus]

Bradley Wiggins, Ryder Hesjedal and Tom Danielson were plain ridiculous too.
Don't know if Christian Vande Velde could be considered ridiculous but it was before my time.

If any of those 4 riders wasn't surprising to me it is Tommy D.
Hesjedal was surprising, but he did have a great year in 2010. Shame he wasn't able to reach the same heights in 2011.

 

[kurtinsc]

I'm going to say Talansky.

Yeah, he won't go in as a leader... but neither Wiggins nor Hesjedal did either. They just came out after injuries and early climbing stages as the best option.

My bet is that while he'll initially be a teammate, he'll be sitting in a good position overall and in the white jersey competition at the first rest day.

He'll be protected in stage 10 and then after getting the white jersey he'll continue to warrant protection from then on out and finish 9th or 10th in the overall.

 

[will10]

I would say Talansky's chances of making the Tour team are slim enough, let alone his chances of a top 10.

 

[theyoungest]

Talansky is yet to finish with the 10-15 strongest climbers in a WT race, let alone in the Tour.

 

[bicing]

Talansky is yet to finish with the 10-15 strongest climbers in a WT race, let alone in the Tour.

I hear the promoting of Talansky but I left him out of the poll because he's too young for a Garmin top 10.

Then why did you put Sep Vanmarcke?

For the LULZ

 

[Zam_Olyas]

I hear the promoting of Talansky but I left him out of the poll because he's too young for a Garmin top 10.

Then why did you put Sep Vanmarcke?

For the LULZ

hahaha @ for the lulz... do u see a cn article coming along the lines of this thread?

 

[Zinoviev Letter]

Talansky is yet to finish with the 10-15 strongest climbers in a WT race, let alone in the Tour.

In fairness to him, he was working as a domestique in all of those races and was quite often one of the last teammates around in the Vuelta mountain stages in what was his first GT. That's pretty good going for a kid.

I don't think he'll be in the Tour team, and I don't think he'll finish in the top 10 next year if he is, but I do think he has a better chance than most of those in the poll above. Martin is the only one in that list who is clearly a better climber and as has been said repeatedly in this thread, the parcours stops him from having any chance.

(Le Mevel is also a better climber as of this year, but next year Talansky is a year more developed while Le Mevel is just a year older.)

 

[Zinoviev Letter]

He has a big Irish fan base even though he's British. To be fair he stands no chance of a top 10, maybe top 30.

Not many Irish posters amongst the 28 who voted for him. He's getting votes because (a) he's one of the few top level riders almost everyone likes and (b) most of the riders on the list aren't top level riders to begin with.

And of course (c) because people aren't really being serious about what is a jokey poll. Martin would have to improve his TT beyond all recognition to get a top 10 on this parcours.

 

[Angliru]

I think the idea is for it to be an unexpected result, like it was with their former top-10 finishers. Vande Velde wouldn't be that unexpected (certainly compared to these guys).

You know, sometimes I get so carried away reading the posts to a thread that I lose track of what exactly the thread is about/what the OP's intention was in starting the thread.

In that case I'll have to go with Dan Martin. With his uncontrollable inclination to attack, he'll get in or initiate a break, build up a time cushion that lasts till the end of the Tour netting him a top 10 finish. These other characters that were listed (Haussler, Millar and some of the others) couldn't hold whatever time they gained till the end nor would they be in a position to build on a decent position in the GC that would get them into the top 10. Once the road turns upward they will be dropping like flies.

 

[JV1973]

Andrew Talansky.

That'd be the most logical bet.

 

[scullster46]

well there we have it. the man has spoken.

Edit:Except he voted for Martin...

 

[Mambo95]

Don't know if Christian Vande Velde could be considered ridiculous but it was before my time.

This is something to note. So when this poster points the doping finger at all sorts in the Clinic as he likes to do), you may want to remember that this is just someone who is a little short on experience (two or three years) trying to impress the 'big boys' (who probably are just the same).

 

[El Pistolero]

well there we have it. the man has spoken.

Edit:Except he voted for Martin...

Talansky is not in the list, so he probably voted for what he thinks is the second most logical bet.

 

[Mambo95]

That'd be the most logical bet.

Well that's the only vote that counts really. Even if he did vote for Martin.

 

[maltiv]

well there we have it. the man has spoken.

Edit:Except he voted for Martin...

Hard to vote for someone not on the list though.

Thanks for revealing your secret plan JV! But while the course isn't good for him, please bring Dan Martin either way...his punchy attacks would really light up the TDF!

 

[bicing]

This is something to note. So when this poster points the doping finger at all sorts in the Clinic as he likes to do), you may want to remember that this is just someone who is a little short on experience (two or three years) trying to impress the 'big boys' (who probably are just the same).

Rarely read the clinic let alone post in it so i don't know what you're talking about.

and who are the big boys?

edit: oh wait i just researched myself and called out Hincapie, Hoogerland, Froome, Wiggins and Cobo. These people are not new to that side of the forum, so I am merely adding a finger to crowds of fingers that have long been pointing and prodding. so i really don't understand your post mambo95

 

[Richeypen]

I am really surprised at all the votes for Martin given the amount of TT miles and his very very poor TT performance in the Vuelta

 

[bicing]

That'd be the most logical bet.

Thank you JV

 

[theyoungest]

In fairness to him, he was working as a domestique in all of those races and was quite often one of the last teammates around in the Vuelta mountain stages in what was his first GT. That's pretty good going for a kid.

I don't think he'll be in the Tour team, and I don't think he'll finish in the top 10 next year if he is, but I do think he has a better chance than most of those in the poll above. Martin is the only one in that list who is clearly a better climber and as has been said repeatedly in this thread, the parcours stops him from having any chance.

(Le Mevel is also a better climber as of this year, but next year Talansky is a year more developed while Le Mevel is just a year older.)

I'm not saying Talansky did bad (quite the opposite actually) but he's not quite at "top 10 in the TDF" level. He also seemed properly cooked at the end of the Vuelta, barely able to follow the peloton.

 

[sublimit]

Not many Irish posters amongst the 28 who voted for him. He's getting votes because (a) he's one of the few top level riders almost everyone likes and (b) most of the riders on the list aren't top level riders to begin with.

And of course (c) because people aren't really being serious about what is a jokey poll. Martin would have to improve his TT beyond all recognition to get a top 10 on this parcours.

Yeah you're right, I didn't check out who voted.

I like him as a rider but obviously I'm not happy he's not riding for Britain.. Still we have Froome with us and he's Kenyan..

 

[Ryo Hazuki]

talanskys progress is incredible though. I remember him from avebnir last year where he was only ride that could finish within reasonable distance from quintana in mountain itt in avenir. after that I started following him a bit and he seemed to have improved especially his itt and less his climbing, his best result was that avenir stage imo but he has potential.

 

[theyoungest]

talanskys progress is incredible though. I remember him from avebnir last year where he was only ride that could finish within reasonable distance from quintana in mountain itt in avenir. after that I started following him a bit and he seemed to have improved especially his itt and less his climbing, his best result was that avenir stage imo but he has potential.

His TT was already pretty good last year, he's the national U23 champion after all. Actually climbing-wise I haven't been too impressed this year, that's where I would have expected him to shine. But maybe last year's Avenir just didn't have a very strong field, I mean, Quintana won it... need I say more?

 

[maltiv]

His TT was already pretty good last year, he's the national U23 champion after all. Actually climbing-wise I haven't been too impressed this year, that's where I would have expected him to shine. But maybe last year's Avenir just didn't have a very strong field, I mean, Quintana won it... need I say more?

He's done a couple of good climbs though, but I think it's just about adjusting to the speed and length of pro-racing, which he'll probably deal with much better next year already. Already having a Grand Tour in his legs could prove helpful in this regard.