Effects of coronavirus on professional races

[gregrowlerson]

Europe is very different from Australia and NZ. I read that about 40 percent of the new infections came from travellers in Germany. Most of them from Eastern Europe, especially Kosovo, also lots from Turkey. Lots of those people are not just travelling for pure fun, they are visiting their families. Europe is not one country, it's a continent with very many different governments, resources and open borders. 700 million inhabitants. Often very dense population (Germany: 233/km² (Netherlands 413, Australia 3,1?) People often work in one country but live across the border (e.g. Switzerland/ Germany, S. not even being in the EU). Also many countries need tourism as it sometimes accounts for more than 50% of their budget (well, that's an entirely different topic). You could do without big events and in my opinion they should try to avoid thousands of people at one event, but the goal to bring the cases down to zero in Europe is unrealistic if you don't want to give up everything that Europe is.

Yeah, I think that the goal to bring it down to zero is unrealistic (and too much of a 'total years lived > quality of life' argument) and unreasonable, pretty much anywhere in the world. There isn't really a totally right or a totally wrong in any of the pro life or pro economy arguments; but I find it interesting the different approaches that different countries are taking. I think that the media plays a big role in influencing each society (whether they mainly run with stories about deaths/crowded hospitals, or job losses/suicides).

I suppose that if the Tour De France was about to be held in Australia, then (Porte would win and) the stages would be held everywhere except for the state of Victoria (and since it is in the corner of the country, this would be logistically possible). Is there a particular area of France right now that is in greater trouble with Covid? And what are the restrictions (if any) in terms of French or European people wanting to watch the race? For example, if you are from Paris, are you allowed to travel to the Alps to watch a stage?

 

[valentius borealis]

On the topic of Victoria, the Herald Sun Tour has been cancelled for 2021.

Herald Sun Tour cancelled for 2021

The Jayco Herald Sun Tour will not be run in 2021. The event has been cancelled due to the uncertainty created by the COVID-19 pandemic.

www.sbs.com.au

 

[memyselfandI]

They're not going to cancel the Tour no matter how hard you guys try to act scared.

I wouldn't place a bet on this one though..

 

[Koronin]

I wouldn't place a bet on this one though..

It'll start. Whether we get to the finish of it is another story, but I suspect the likelihood of some teams not finishing is higher than the race being stopped. However, I do agree it's possible it won't finish.

 

[gregrowlerson]

If enough of the teams get thrown out, then Richie Porte could actually win!

Of course the exception to this rule should be Landa, for if his team is thrown out then he should be allowed to continue to race, and to finally be free.

 

[BlueRoads]

Yeah, I think that the goal to bring it down to zero is unrealistic (and too much of a 'total years lived > quality of life' argument) and unreasonable, pretty much anywhere in the world. There isn't really a totally right or a totally wrong in any of the pro life or pro economy arguments; but I find it interesting the different approaches that different countries are taking. I think that the media plays a big role in influencing each society (whether they mainly run with stories about deaths/crowded hospitals, or job losses/suicides).

I suppose that if the Tour De France was about to be held in Australia, then (Porte would win and) the stages would be held everywhere except for the state of Victoria (and since it is in the corner of the country, this would be logistically possible). Is there a particular area of France right now that is in greater trouble with Covid? And what are the restrictions (if any) in terms of French or European people wanting to watch the race? For example, if you are from Paris, are you allowed to travel to the Alps to watch a stage?

You are. At the moment. Paris is hit very hard.

 

[SafeBet]

Already reported in another thread: Leonardo Basso has tested positive for COVID-19, hence all the Ineos italian riders (Puccio, Ganna, Moscon) who trained together for the NC this morning will have to quarantine for 14 days. Obviously they won't ride tomorrow.

 

[Sciatic]

Already reported in another thread: Leonardo Basso has tested positive for COVID-19, hence all the Ineos italian riders (Puccio, Ganna, Moscon) who trained together for the NC this morning will have to quarantine for 14 days. Obviously they won't ride tomorrow.

I’m getting so tired of how obtuse the announcement of positive COVID cases are explained by sports teams and by the press in general. To say Basso remained isolated and followed protocols at all times (as if to suggest its incomprehensible how he could get infected) are meaningless unless they can also verify that the person they live with (in this case his girlfriend) has also been equally isolated and taken precautions, and that anyone she had contact with was equally strict following protocols. Once an athlete is outside their bubble, whether an isolated team training camp or the NBA-type bubble, there will always be breakdowns in preventative tactics.

 

[KZD]

It would be needed a fast turn of events to actually cancel the start of the Tour, however I am almost sure that a few teams will be thrown out during the race (with dozens of staff members during three weeks that's not difficult to happen). If that starts happening almost at a daily basis, I hope that someone has the courage to put an end to the race since finishing a Tour with a few teams wouldn't make any sense.
Considering the current rise in cases across France, there is always the possibility that mayors will simply reject hosting stages, which would become a logistical nightmare for ASO.

 

[yaco]

It would be needed a fast turn of events to actually cancel the start of the Tour, however I am almost sure that a few teams will be thrown out during the race (with dozens of staff members during three weeks that's not difficult to happen). If that starts happening almost at a daily basis, I hope that someone has the courage to put an end to the race since finishing a Tour with a few teams wouldn't make any sense.
Considering the current rise in cases across France, there is always the possibility that mayors will simply reject hosting stages, which would become a logistical nightmare for ASO.

You can only enter the bubble if you test negative - Cycling is like any other workplace in which some will test positive - Hence why you have two lots of testing before you can race - Already Dillier and Goldstein tested positive so missed races but have since resumed in the peleton - The cycling powers that be will adapt to the circumstances like other sports and workplaces.

 

[Lequack]

Here is what we can look forward to for the upcoming races:
"After being forced to sit out the Dutch National Championships road race in Drenthe on Saturday because of a positive COVID-19 test, Inge van der Heijden took to Instagram to announce a re-test had come back negative and raised questions about the reliability of the PCR tests. "

Van der Heijden re-test negative for COVID-19, raises doubts over PCR test accuracy

Dutch rider says she will remain in quarantine

www.cyclingnews.com

 

[Sciatic]

You can only enter the bubble if you test negative - Cycling is like any other workplace in which some will test positive - Hence why you have two lots of testing before you can race - Already Dillier and Goldstein tested positive so missed races but have since resumed in the peleton - The cycling powers that be will adapt to the circumstances like other sports and workplaces.

Yaco, I would like it if you’re right so I can enjoy the Tour without missing riders or interruptions.

But you have been so insistent that nothing can go wrong because the authorizes-that-be will be in total control, that I assume you’re not wanting to hear potential problems because it might jinx it.

Training camp in Majorca can be maintained as a bubble. Same hotel, same room, same limited group of people around the riders. By contrast, the Tour is not a bubble environment, though I hope they do what they can. Different hotels every night night with a different set of staff every night. It’s not likely a rider would stray outside their containment, but transmission to a team has many other sources: a team assistant arguing with the hotel manager about why the got the worst rooms again, or a blood-draw staff whose husband didn’t follow protocols and unknowingly infected her.
We have, what 20 teams, with each team having 15-20 total members. That’s 400 people who for 3 weeks need to decide not to go out “just once” to be bar, or meets an attractive someone.

I just thinks it’s a lot to hope for. But I’ve made this point before so I don’t think there’s more to say. I will continue to listen to your side of things and take hope from that it can work out!

 

[yaco]

Yaco, I would like it if you’re right so I can enjoy the Tour without missing riders or interruptions.

But you have been so insistent that nothing can go wrong because the authorizes-that-be will be in total control, that I assume you’re not wanting to hear potential problems because it might jinx it.

Training camp in Majorca can be maintained as a bubble. Same hotel, same room, same limited group of people around the riders. By contrast, the Tour is not a bubble environment, though I hope they do what they can. Different hotels every night night with a different set of staff every night. It’s not likely a rider would stray outside their containment, but transmission to a team has many other sources: a team assistant arguing with the hotel manager about why the got the worst rooms again, or a blood-draw staff whose husband didn’t follow protocols and unknowingly infected her.
We have, what 20 teams, with each team having 15-20 total members. That’s 400 people who for 3 weeks need to decide not to go out “just once” to be bar, or meets an attractive someone.

I just thinks it’s a lot to hope for. But I’ve made this point before so I don’t think there’s more to say. I will continue to listen to your side of things and take hope from that it can work out!

We have no foolproof system - As we've seen it appears that of the five recent positives, two are likely to be false positives BUT we must err on the side of caution - But this is the best system in place and obviously the protocols have been approved by the medical authorities representing the teams and the relevant state and national authorities - At the end of the day, cyclists like other sports are WORKPLACES, and the protocols and testing are far above other workplaces.

 

[IndianCyclist]

Here is what we can look forward to for the upcoming races:
"After being forced to sit out the Dutch National Championships road race in Drenthe on Saturday because of a positive COVID-19 test, Inge van der Heijden took to Instagram to announce a re-test had come back negative and raised questions about the reliability of the PCR tests. "

Van der Heijden re-test negative for COVID-19, raises doubts over PCR test accuracy

Dutch rider says she will remain in quarantine

www.cyclingnews.com

Considering that the riders are training without masks, they can inhale the virus which gets stuck in the nasal passages or mouth but is not above the threshold for an infection. When the test swab is taken from the nose , it shows positive but subsequent test with the rider isolated and the virus dead and removed from the nasal passages does not.. It could be a case where the test is also right & positive but the person is not infected. Maybe recheck if rider is positive in the morning / night and get results before the race starts if fast turnaround is possible.

 

[ice&fire]

Here is what we can look forward to for the upcoming races:
"After being forced to sit out the Dutch National Championships road race in Drenthe on Saturday because of a positive COVID-19 test, Inge van der Heijden took to Instagram to announce a re-test had come back negative and raised questions about the reliability of the PCR tests. "

Van der Heijden re-test negative for COVID-19, raises doubts over PCR test accuracy

Dutch rider says she will remain in quarantine

www.cyclingnews.com

The reliability (or lack of) of PCR tests has been known for a few months and it tends to err on the side of false negatives.

COVID-19 Story Tip: Beware of False Negatives in Diagnostic Testing of COVID-19

Variation in False-Negative Rate of Reverse Transcriptase Polymerase Chain Reaction–Based SARS-CoV-2 Tests by Time Since Exposure | Annals of Internal Medicine

Background: Tests for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) based on reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) are being used to rule out infection among high-risk persons, such as exposed inpatients and health care workers. It is critical to understand how...

www.acpjournals.org

Like it or not, the PCR test is still the most reliable test available, so everyone has to live with it with no doubt in case of a positive test.

 

[Armchair cyclist]

I see PCS has some races as re-cancelled (is that a word? Cancelled having previously been rescheduled); EuroEyes (Vattenfalls) Classic, Dwars door Vlaanderen, Eurometropole, GP de Wallonie and others.
How many more to follow?

 

[Sciatic]

The reliability (or lack of) of PCR tests has been known for a few months and it tends to err on the side of false negatives.

COVID-19 Story Tip: Beware of False Negatives in Diagnostic Testing of COVID-19

Variation in False-Negative Rate of Reverse Transcriptase Polymerase Chain Reaction–Based SARS-CoV-2 Tests by Time Since Exposure | Annals of Internal Medicine

Background: Tests for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) based on reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) are being used to rule out infection among high-risk persons, such as exposed inpatients and health care workers. It is critical to understand how...

www.acpjournals.org

Like it or not, the PCR test is still the most reliable test available, so everyone has to live with it with no doubt in case of a positive test.

I think most types of testing will produce a certain amount of false positives. I get frustrated, pretty much on a daily basis these days, that news media fail to put individual cases (false positive or negative) in context. How world-wide tests done—millions at this point? Are the false positives within the limits of what was anticipated and still make the test effective?

it’s particularly a problem in the U.S. where there had long been an anti-intellectual, anti-science subcurrent that has now gotten more prevalent. Even some folks I consider smart seem to seize upon individual cases as a reason to express “who knows what to believe”, and of course, the hoax and anti-mask crowd really make hay with those examples, so that can push back even harder against medical advice. Argh.

 

[Kaptain Kool]

I see PCS has some races as re-cancelled (is that a word? Cancelled having previously been rescheduled); EuroEyes (Vattenfalls) Classic, Dwars door Vlaanderen, Eurometropole, GP de Wallonie and others.
How many more to follow?

I don't think these are new cancellations, though. Those races haven't been on the UCI calendar for weeks. I don't remember seeing DdV on the calendar at all but I could be wrong.
I think Eurometropole cancelled because the organizers felt that being scheduled opposite the Tour wasn't ideal. Or am I confusing that with another race?

 

[ice&fire]

I think most types of testing will produce a certain amount of false positives. I get frustrated, pretty much on a daily basis these days, that news media fail to put individual cases (false positive or negative) in context. How world-wide tests done—millions at this point? Are the false positives within the limits of what was anticipated and still make the test effective?

it’s particularly a problem in the U.S. where there had long been an anti-intellectual, anti-science subcurrent that has now gotten more prevalent. Even some folks I consider smart seem to seize upon individual cases as a reason to express “who knows what to believe”, and of course, the hoax and anti-mask crowd really make hay with those examples, so that can push back even harder against medical advice. Argh.

The test has been designed to look for the presence of the genetic material of SARS-CoV-2, and that cannot be confused with the genetic material of other viruses. So apparently there's very little room for false positives.

How accurate are the laboratory tests used to diagnose COVID-19?

April 29: How accurate is the test to diagnose COVID-19? What are the odds of getting a false positive? Could the test tell me I’m infected when I’m not?

medical.mit.edu

 

[Ranagazoo]

https://www.cyclingnews.com/news/after-covid-19-test-roller-coaster-houle-heading-to-tour-de-france/

Sounds like another false positive... I suppose a false positive is better than a false negative, but a big concern for the Tour now must be teams wrongly thrown out the race for inaccurate tests.

 

[ice&fire]

https://www.cyclingnews.com/news/after-covid-19-test-roller-coaster-houle-heading-to-tour-de-france/

Sounds like another false positive... I suppose a false positive is better than a false negative, but a big concern for the Tour now must be teams wrongly thrown out the race for inaccurate tests.

¿False positive? The test looks for the specific genetic material of the virus. It's perfectly possible to test positive and have no symptoms of illness. And it's normal to test positive on a day and negative one week after. All this has been known for months.
I'm torn between the reports of Hospitals and Medicine Schools and those of Cycling News

 

[RedheadDane]

¿False positive? The test looks for the specific genetic material of the virus. It's perfectly possible to test positive and have no symptoms of illness. And it's normal to test positive on a day and negative one week after. All this has been known for months.
I'm torn between the reports of Hospitals and Medicine Schools and those of Cycling News

In the case of Houle he actually reported himself that further tests revealed that he had in fact never been infected.

 

[ice&fire]

In the case of Houle he actually reported himself that further tests revealed that he had in fact never been infected.

Like the PCR test, the antibody test accuracy varies in time relative to the date of first symptoms. They're considered useful from 15 days after first symptoms, but they're not considered reliable and useful for surveys for public health managment purposes.

What is the diagnostic accuracy of antibody tests for the detection of infection with the COVID-19 virus?

www.cochrane.org

Houle might be an asymptomatic case, and that makes his case more difficult to assess.
Nevertheless, I'd question the unqualified assertion that tests revealed that he had never been infected, as there's too much uncertainty due to inaccurate test results. In both PCR tests and antibody tests that uncertainty is highly skewed towards false negatives, not false positives. You can believe positive tests, but you have to question negative tests.

How Accurate Are the Coronavirus Diagnostic and Antibody Tests?

Experts say the two common tests to diagnose an infection with the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) are both highly accurate. The antibody tests done to determine a past infection aren't as trustworthy.

www.healthline.com

According to the CN report Houle himself does not question his positive PCR test result as a false positive. He seems to understand the problem better than the average news reporter or at least his opinion is aligned with what is known about test accuracy.

 

[Cookster15]

Credit to the organizers trying to conduct the Tour but I will be surprised if it finishes. France is now recording over 3,000 new cases per day. I think if the Tour finishes it would be a miracle. There are over 129,000 active Covid cases in France as of August 24. The sad risk is whoever wins the Tour it may not be rated so high because people might ask well what if other contenders didn't have to withdraw due to the virus?

 

[Ranagazoo]

¿False positive? The test looks for the specific genetic material of the virus. It's perfectly possible to test positive and have no symptoms of illness. And it's normal to test positive on a day and negative one week after. All this has been known for months.
I'm torn between the reports of Hospitals and Medicine Schools and those of Cycling News

Yesterday a Bora rider tested positive, forcing the team to withdraw from the Bretagne Classic, then tested negative just hours later. Statement from Bora "It is reasonable to conclude that this was a false positive test result."

You say it's normal to test positive one day and negative one week after, but hours later? And he tested negative in the days before the race. The testing system needs to be changed (A and B samples?) before the Tour starts.