Elite male WC road race

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Who will win the elite men's RR?

  • other/vino

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Mar 14, 2009
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DirtyWorks said:
He's a good candidate on paper. One of three unless Garmin helps. That has happened before.

Belgians looking very good with fantastic depth. But, they have to work together and they will be closely marked.

Australia, OTOH has a squad with riders who can get away, not heavily marked as long as Evans helps.

Super-happy to see Eric Marcotte on the start list. The development situation is so poorly run from the top-down in the U.S. an athlete with a regular job is nationlal champion. I'm sure USA Cycling is giving him the cold shoulder. "Eric who?? Are you Tejay's assistant?"

That's not a dig at Marcotte personally. It's about the corrupt, broken system in the U.S.

I have to agree with seeing Marcotte doing this race is pretty awesome. I love his attacking style and I'm sure he will be involved in the early breaks. He got pretty good endurance and those 250km shouldnt be a problem for him.

.. and dont even let me start with USA Cycling, I have never dealt with a bigger bunch of incompetent morons.
 
Cancellara winning would mean we have had race that did not end in a bunch sprint. That surely is what is being hoped for. If Cancellara is strong enough to attack and win then good on him. He is not my favorite rider, but I will admire ability that it will take for him to win.
 
The sprinters in the race are quite possibly going to make a tactical decision.
Do they try and follow the attackers on the last climb and try and win from a smaller group? Or do they wait in the pack and trust that the attackers will be caught.
A rider like Degenkolb, Bouhanni or Sagan might doom that group to being caught because they will not work to bring the sprinter to the line to win. However a group without them in it might make it because they are not there.
 
Jagartrott said:
I would love for Gallopin or GVA to win.
But it really is anyone's race. Sprinters, puncheurs, classics guys - all of them stand a chance depending on how the race unfolds.

95% chance we will have a group of 40+ riders together at the bottom of the Mirador climb on the last lap. It is then going to be up to the attackers to attack and the chasers to chase. I hope the attackers make it but I am not confident they are going to.
 
I've come up with my ideal scenario tonight.

Kwiatkowski, Gerrans, Gallopin, Dumoulin, Valverde, Cancellara and Costa get a gap over the climb. They try to distance Gerrans with Cancellara and Kwiatkowski attacking whilst the others are looking at each other. Cancellara eventually gets away and takes a solo win by 5 seconds. Gerrans outsprints Gallopin, Valverde, Costa, Dumoulin and Kwiatkowski to take 2nd. John Degenkolb leads the rest of the bunch in 10 seconds later ahead of Matthews, Colbrelli and Swift.

1. Fabian Cancellara
2. Simon Gerrans
3. Tony Gallopin
4. Michael Kwiatkowski
5. Alejandro Valverde
6. Tom Dumoulin
7. Rui Costa
8. John Degenkolb
9. Michael Matthews
10. Sonny Colbrelli
11. Ben Swift
12. Greg Van Avermaet
13. Ramunas Navardauskas
14. Philippe Gilbert
15. Alexander Kolobnev
 
TheGreenMonkey said:
95% chance we will have a group of 40+ riders together at the bottom of the Mirador climb on the last lap. It is then going to be up to the attackers to attack and the chasers to chase. I hope the attackers make it but I am not confident they are going to.

It's possible for the attackers, see u23 and the women quintet would've stayed away if they worked together, but that's exactly the problem. The climb isn't hard enough so you will likely have a group of 4-6 riders together at the top and than what?
 
Kwibus said:
It's possible for the attackers, see u23 and the women quintet would've stayed away if they worked together, but that's exactly the problem. The climb isn't hard enough so you will likely have a group of 4-6 riders together at the top and than what?

Either Cancellara drags everyone to the line and he gets second, or he lets the group get back, sprints and gets second
 
Kwibus said:
It's possible for the attackers, see u23 and the women quintet would've stayed away if they worked together, but that's exactly the problem. The climb isn't hard enough so you will likely have a group of 4-6 riders together at the top and than what?

Exactly, it is possible to get a small lead, but will that lead be enough.