• The Cycling News forum is looking to add some volunteer moderators with Red Rick's recent retirement. If you're interested in helping keep our discussions on track, send a direct message to @SHaines here on the forum, or use the Contact Us form to message the Community Team.

    In the meanwhile, please use the Report option if you see a post that doesn't fit within the forum rules.

    Thanks!

EPO is apparently useless

Page 4 - Get up to date with the latest news, scores & standings from the Cycling News Community.
Dec 21, 2016
44
0
0
Visit site
Merckx index said:
They may be included in an Appendix referred to by the authors—I’m sure they have the data somewhere--but unfortunately, the Appendix is not included in the free access to the article following registration.

Just a quick reply, the appendix is available for download here. In most journals, the appendix and other supplemental materials are distributed separately from the paper. (If the link doesn't work, go to the paper's landing page and click "Supplemental Materials".) The appendix doesn't list the full data set.

On Training
One thing to note is that training efforts were measured and no significant results between the groups were found for training hours, training power, and training distance. While training may indeed be a bias, the random design of the study makes it unlikely the bias is systematic towards one group, given the checks they did. So, the averages should not be systematically biased towards one group.

However, while the between-group differences may not be biased by differences in training, it may increase the individual differences or variance within the groups. As far as I can tell, training effort is not included in any of the statistical models, increasing the error/unexplained variance of the model and thereby decreasing the power of the statistical test. This means that it is less likely to reject the hypothesis that EPO does nothing (the null hypothesis) even if in reality EPO is beneficial. However, including training variables in the model would mean that more effects (parameters) should be estimated, also decreasing the power of the procedures.

Still, I'm not convinced that this truly was a factor in the null finding, although it couldn't hurt to perform a study in which training was more closely monitored and/or controlled.

On the 45-minute test
One thing thing that I do question is the 45-minute test which serves as the foundation for the conclusion that EPO is not beneficial in cycling. (The maximum power tests do show a beneficial effect of EPO). While I'm not an expert in cycling performance tests, almost every text I've read on cycling training and time trialing mentions that pacing a 45-60 minute effort is really difficult. (It's usually mentioned in relation to FTP-tests.) I know it certainly took me a while to get it right when I started racing and even then I sometimes got it wrong. Given that most of the participants are not competing or competed at club level, I find it unlikely that most would have the skills to perfectly pace such an effort.

So, what are we actually measuring? True maximum submaximal performance? Their ability to pace 45-minute efforts? The effects of experiencing it at time point 1, learning from it, and then doing better at day 46 (i.e., a testing effect)? Due to the difficulty of pacing and the relative inexperience of the participants, both the validity (i.e., does it truly measure submaximal performance) and the reliability (i.e., does the test provide consistent results/would the same participant get similar results if repeated under similar conditions) of the measure can be questioned. As far as I can tell they did not analyse the efforts to check for pacing problems. (This is also evident by the fact they don't mention pacing problems; I find it highly unlikely that all participants paced both their tests appropriately.)

This means that the results may not only be influenced by the true physical abilities, but also by their ability to pace the effort. This increases individual differences and thereby the error/unexplained part of the statistical model. As with the training effects mentioned above, this decreases the power of the statistical tests. As the probability values do approach significance (p = 0.086, 7.66 watts average increase for placebo, 13.55 watts average increase for EPO), problems with this test may have had a severe influence on the results of the analysis.
 
Re: Dutch Study: "EPO little to no effect on trained cyclist

Tonton said:
How do you say BS in Dutch? :D
Literally:
Stierenstront, stierenkak.

Figuratively ("nonsense"):
Onzin, flauwekul, zever in zakskes.

For a short term effect things like amphetamines probably work more directly, but EPO is an enormous help to improve endurance in the longer term and enables riders to train more kilometers without getting exhausted.
 
Dec 21, 2016
44
0
0
Visit site
Re: Dutch Study: "EPO little to no effect on trained cyclist

Strange Loop said:
Tonton said:
How do you say BS in Dutch? :D

Onzin. (Although that's doesn't have the same negative connotation and most here will understand/use "******").

You can find the thread for this study here: http://forum.cyclingnews.com/viewtopic.php?f=20&t=33344

Can the mods merge this thread with the one above? Because the same article is discussed in that one, with a lot more replies.
 
Jul 5, 2009
2,440
4
0
Visit site
Yup. EPO has no effect. That perfectly explains why Riis won a Tour. Or the 90's in general. Doesn't help people with kidney failure either. Useless drug. Amgen went bankrupt.

John Swanson
 
May 26, 2009
3,687
2
0
Visit site
Re:

ScienceIsCool said:
Yup. EPO has no effect. That perfectly explains why Riis won a Tour. Or the 90's in general. Doesn't help people with kidney failure either. Useless drug. Amgen went bankrupt.

John Swanson
That's what always makes me roll my eyes... "There's no reliable data"... when there's a Mount Ventoux of aggregate of real world data pointing to the importance of Epo :Neutral:

Then again, it fits in what I think of the Dutch resurgence of the last ten years in all manners of sports.. we saw it before in the tail en d of the eighties. Soccer, Skating, Cycling, etc.. etc.

And lo and behold: We had a soccer team finding its groove, Skating has become a joke, our athletes all of a sudden can sprint again, we have our swimming stars... On cycling in that same timeframe we managed to get our own climbers again (Mollema/Ten Dam, Gesink), culminating in TD's win of the Giro (and SK should have won it last year).

It's a coincidence.. really. Just as the reports about how Epo does not work all of a sudden being pumped through our universities (Hello Harm Kuijpers). I assume these researchers are kosher, but one must wonder why this research came out at a time where this tiny country all of a sudden is performing on all cilinders again.

In earnest: In the timeframe 2008-2012 we made a gargantuan leap of which we are still seeing the effects.

=> When a country all of a sudden has a Renaissance in all kinds of sports, there's a Puerto behind it. With the obligatory smoke screens.
 
Oct 16, 2010
19,912
2
0
Visit site
Re:

ScienceIsCool said:
Yup. EPO has no effect. That perfectly explains why Riis won a Tour. Or the 90's in general. Doesn't help people with kidney failure either. Useless drug. Amgen went bankrupt.

John Swanson
EPO has great effect.
But I wouldn't say Riis 1996 hits it out of the ballpark.
Riis was on EPO well before 1996.
1996 something else happened.
In addition to EPO of course.
 
May 26, 2009
3,687
2
0
Visit site
If we look at the results of the years before it's hardly revolutionary. Big Mig made a huge drop, but every name (including Riis) in that top ten had bona-fide GT history (except neo-pro Jan, but he was not exactly a star out of nowhere, we knew he was a huge talent).

Same with the classics.. Musseeuw before, Musseeuw after.

Yeah, all Epo fuelled, certainly, but contrary to the dramatic 1992 disappearance of the old guard, most stars in the epo era did fine during that decade.

Sorry, I think your hammering on the motors'is silly. There's no indication that this happened, no rumors. Cycling is way too leaky to make that plausible.
 
Oct 16, 2010
19,912
2
0
Visit site
Re:

Franklin said:
...There's no indication that this happened, no rumors.
Lol, I guess.

With all due respect, maybe you could consider reading the appropriate threads on motors first and maybe even try to address (if only a fraction of) the relevant evidence and arguments put forth therein.
Otherwise there is no breeding ground for a fruitful discussion on the topic.

To get back to my original point:
if you want to address the issue of the impact of EPO on (cycling) performance scientifically, then you'll want to control as many variables as possible.
So ideally you'll want to take performances of which you can be sure they did not involve motors.
As much as it saddens me, for reasons extensively laid out in the "first motor caught" thread, Riis 1996 is no such performance.

Indeed, by extension, it means that most of the topperformances from the mid-90s onwards are, in my view, unreliable data points. It's a sad state of affairs, and I wish it were different. I wish there was no cheating and no omerta. I really do.
 
May 26, 2009
3,687
2
0
Visit site
I read them. Point to a rumor originating in that era and we can talk. Varjas showing a motor fits in a Trek *shrug*.

Let's turn this around, now shall we? Point out the dramatic change in 1996 and explain why the only one who got caught was Miguel Indurain. Perhaps his bike was unsuited for a motor. Oh wait, he had exactly the same bike as Riis. Maybe Miguel was a more honest person? Miguel lacked the cash?

Serious Snip[er, you are a good guy, but considering the dramatic change clearly is not supported by data your whole premise is odd. Suddenly everyone gets a motor except Miguel Indurain? That's extremely farfetched.
 
Oct 16, 2010
19,912
2
0
Visit site
Re:

Franklin said:
I read them. Point to a rumor originating in that era and we can talk. Varjas showing a motor fits in a Trek *shrug*.

Let's turn this around, now shall we? Point out the dramatic change in 1996 and explain why the only one who got caught was Miguel Indurain. Perhaps his bike was unsuited for a motor. Oh wait, he had exactly the same bike as Riis. Maybe Miguel was a more honest person? Miguel lacked the cash?

Serious Snip[er, you are a good guy, but considering the dramatic change clearly is not supported by data your whole premise is odd. Suddenly everyone gets a motor except Miguel Indurain? That's extremely farfetched.
I didn't say "everyone gets a motor".
I said top-performances from the mid 90s onwards, in my view, don't offer reliable data points.
 
Topics merged. Let me know if there is an issue with the merge, or anything else.

I too find the study not thorough, as they didn't use pros, and it looks like it took nothing into factor over long term training, plus day to day recovery, where some of the biggest gains are likely to be attained. It also jumps to conclusions, and as DFA123 noted on page three, it's completely irresponsible for a scientist to make a presumption that Armstrong "lost his jerseys to a drug that had no effect".

What's next? A study showing the minimal amount Floyd was over the limit on his testosterone positive had no affect on his performance on the Joux Plane?
 
Re: Re:

sniper said:
Franklin said:
...There's no indication that this happened, no rumors.
Lol, I guess.

With all due respect, maybe you could consider reading the appropriate threads on motors first and maybe even try to address (if only a fraction of) the relevant evidence and arguments put forth therein.
Otherwise there is no breeding ground for a fruitful discussion on the topic.

To get back to my original point:
if you want to address the issue of the impact of EPO on (cycling) performance scientifically, then you'll want to control as many variables as possible.
So ideally you'll want to take performances of which you can be sure they did not involve motors.
As much as it saddens me, for reasons extensively laid out in the "first motor caught" thread, Riis 1996 is no such performance.

Indeed, by extension, it means that most of the topperformances from the mid-90s onwards are, in my view, unreliable data points. It's a sad state of affairs, and I wish it were different. I wish there was no cheating and no omerta. I really do.
What is your LOL for???
He was talking about the no test EPO era.

Please bring any rumor, book quote, or interview, confession about that era the motors were being used or cut the crap!!!

Who cares about the motor in an era when they were free to dope with EPO. Motor + free EPO, LOL. That's right I want to see those climbs!
 
Havent read the study. If the aim is to give a more nuanced view of the chain "increased hb mass -> increased vo2 uptake -> similarly increased performance capacity -> similarly increased actual race performance" then fair play. Even so it is stating a truism that can be spun in very unproductive ways as per usual.

If the argument is that epo is useless as a means of doping, then, well, it is so useless that evolution has made kidneys produce it naturally to regulate RBC production in humans. Clearly useless.
 
Dec 21, 2016
44
0
0
Visit site
Re:

ScienceIsCool said:
Yup. EPO has no effect. That perfectly explains why Riis won a Tour. Or the 90's in general. Doesn't help people with kidney failure either. Useless drug. Amgen went bankrupt.

John Swanson

I don't get this reply, but you're probably trolling. However, your username is "ScienceIsCool", so you apparently claim to have a thing for science.

The article, not the topic title, claims that EPO is not effective in enhancing performance; nowhere does it claim that EPO does "nothing" in the case of kidney failure. Now, I believe there are some severe flaws in the article, I wrote some of the problems I have down in this post, but there are a lot people commenting who didn't even bother to read the article (free access!).
 
Jun 30, 2014
7,060
2
0
Visit site
Small doping scandal at the Österreich Rundfahrt, Matija Kvasina got busted busted for Molidustat, an HIF-stabilizer that stimulates erythropoietin production without hypertensive effects, as far as I know it's not really on the market and still in the riall phase, but don't quote me on that.
Sources: http://www.tuttobiciweb.it/2017/07/...croato-matija-kvasina-epo-doping-tuttobiciweb
http://www.laola1.at/de/red/sport-m...ndfahrt-teilnehmer-wegen-dopings-suspendiert/
Not a huge surprise, a guy who has been riding since 2004 and suddenly became way better in his 30ies.
Felbermayr - Simplon Wels are also one of the shadier Aistrian CT teams, Zoidl was never able to replicate the results that he got in 2013 when he was riding for them.
 
Jul 4, 2009
9,666
0
0
Visit site
Re: Re:

Strange Loop said:
ScienceIsCool said:
Yup. EPO has no effect. That perfectly explains why Riis won a Tour. Or the 90's in general. Doesn't help people with kidney failure either. Useless drug. Amgen went bankrupt.

John Swanson

I don't get this reply, but you're probably trolling. However, your username is "ScienceIsCool", so you apparently claim to have a thing for science.

The article, not the topic title, claims that EPO is not effective in enhancing performance; nowhere does it claim that EPO does "nothing" in the case of kidney failure. Now, I believe there are some severe flaws in the article, I wrote some of the problems I have down in this post, but there are a lot people commenting who didn't even bother to read the article (free access!).

....there is a form of irony that is used extensively in these parts, its called sarcasm, you should take a few moments to acquaint yourself with it....

....just sayin' eh....

Cheers
 
May 26, 2010
28,143
5
0
Visit site
Just to re-jog some memories. On Motorola Armstrong was bitching how they were getting hammered by other teams. Stephen Swart was using EPO on Motorola so i guess Armstrong was as well. It was not until he joined up with Ferrari that he got his big improvement. Taking EPO to get maximum performance enhancement is probably a fine tuned method.
 
Using EPO improperly is probably useless, similar to most other performance enhancing drugs.

But you have one guy carefully monitoring an athlete, adjusting doses, and looking at data. You have another guy randomly putting in random doses into random people, crossing his fingers, and hoping for a result.

One would expect the two guys to have very different results.
 

TRENDING THREADS