Evans can win Le Tour!

[NickBVK]

Schleck has never done anything himself, only wheelsucked and followed Contador in the mountains. Very interesting to see how he goes dictating the pace or taking off alone up the mountains.

Evans has experience of going solo, going on the attack - Schleck really doesn't.

 

[rhubroma]

Evans couldn't beat Righi at the Giro last year, lol.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R0R6CRJ1RtA

Oh, that's cute.

 

[whittashau]

H

The last guy who can win is... an Italin. Is this Basso? Evans is better than Basso. Sassi said as much last year. Liquigas are tought at the Giro. Why? Because all their competition GC wise aim for the Tour. Leopard Trek will annihilate Liquigas. Kreuziger is gone and Nibali will be pooped after the Giro.

How is Evans better than Basso? Are you ***? There is nothing to back that claim up other than the fact that "theoretically" according to the tests Sassi has done that he thinks Evans is more naturally talented. That doesn't always translate into him being a better rider. You need a reality check.

Liquigas are a good team who often focus on the giro much more than most teams which probably impedes their performance somewhat at the tour..

 

[Mellow Velo]

Andy Schleck has a lot of question marks next to his name. Another rider error throwing a chain or failing to stay upright will open this years Tour right up. Andy is use to trying to hold onto Contador, not dictate pace and annihilate. Let's see how he handles the pressure. Too many question marks around Schleck. I'll believe it when I see it. Pressure as leader and favourite affects people differently. Schleck is a whiner. Whiners tend to choke when favourites.

So funny.
You could substitute Cadel's name into this little rant and get a near perfect analysis of Evan's GT history.
There is just no Oz Objectiveness when it comes to Cuddles.

Personally if he doesn't race one event even seriously before the Tour, rather than soft pedalling like a moron, I will interpret that as Andy being mentally unprepped.

Snap! Seems Mr Evans intends to adopt the same approach.

http://velonews.competitor.com/2011...-his-eggs-in-the-tour-de-france-basket_157303

Could be a lean year in those CQ rankings.

 

[galaxy1]

All these hypotheticals miss an important point. To win the TdF in any year likely involves winning 2 or 3 of the hardest stages. Being a good GT rider, climbing in the front group, but not winning stages gives you consistent minor placings, and nothing more.

Cadel Evans has never really been able to win stages. That's why he has never really been a big win threat in the tour, and has spent minimal time in yellow. This means that he can't win the tour without outrageous luck (c.f. Oscar Pereiro).

 

[theyoungest]

All these hypotheticals miss an important point. To win the TdF in any year likely involves winning 2 or 3 of the hardest stages. Being a good GT rider, climbing in the front group, but not winning stages gives you consistent minor placings, and nothing more.

Cadel Evans has never really been able to win stages. That's why he has never really been a big win threat in the tour, and has spent minimal time in yellow. This means that he can't win the tour without outrageous luck (c.f. Oscar Pereiro).

I seem to remember a guy winning the Tour quite recently without winning any stages... can't remember who it was... help me out here...

 

[El Pistolero]

I seem to remember a guy winning the Tour quite recently without winning any stages... can't remember who it was... help me out here...

Said person came a close second o na stage and gifted a stage away. Said person could have won another stage if the breakaway wasn't up ahead.

 

[auscyclefan94]

How is Evans better than Basso? Are you ***? There is nothing to back that claim up other than the fact that "theoretically" according to the tests Sassi has done that he thinks Evans is more naturally talented. That doesn't always translate into him being a better rider. You need a reality check.

Liquigas are a good team who often focus on the giro much more than most teams which probably impedes their performance somewhat at the tour..

Erm, on two MTF's Basso couldn't beat a sick Evans. Evans would of won the giro if he wasn't sick.

Unfortunately, he also has a history of choking on the final TT when he is favoured to take said TT.

I would like you to explain to me how he choked on either time trial...

 

[theyoungest]

How is Evans better than Basso? Are you ***? There is nothing to back that claim up other than the fact that "theoretically" according to the tests Sassi has done that he thinks Evans is more naturally talented. That doesn't always translate into him being a better rider. You need a reality check.

Liquigas are a good team who often focus on the giro much more than most teams which probably impedes their performance somewhat at the tour..

Or maybe you need to check some of the footage of the Vuelta 2009, where Evans was at least as strong as Basso. Or some of the Giro stages, even. You seem to base your judgement on this one GT, where we just didn't see Evans at his best. I'm not even an Evans fan, but the guy is almost perpetually underrated (except by ACF, of course). Evans got 2nd twice in a GT where he had to deal with much stronger opposition than Michele Scarponi.

 

[Havetts]

Yet when he had the chance to win the TdF in 2008, he let sastre slip away when it was obvious the schlecks wouldnt do anything so sastre could take the tour. I doubt he'll ever get a chance that big to win the tour again. Though I dont dislike Evans, I kind of dislike his style of cycling, sitting in the wheel watching and not attacking himself.

 

[auscyclefan94]

Yet when he had the chance to win the TdF in 2008, he let sastre slip away when it was obvious the schlecks wouldnt do anything so sastre could take the tour. I doubt he'll ever get a chance that big to win the tour again. Though I dont dislike Evans, I kind of dislike his style of cycling, sitting in the wheel watching and not attacking himself.

I don't think Cadel could respond to Sastre on the Alpe. Even though I don't think he does wheel suck, sometimes he doesn't attack because he just can't.

 

[Havetts]

I don't think Cadel could respond to Sastre on the Alpe. Even though I don't think he does wheel suck, sometimes he doesn't attack because he just can't.

Though I kinda agree, you hardly see him attack - though him opening on Verbier 2009 TdF was cool too see. Only time I can remember (outside the classics) see him attacking was the World Championships 2009, which was a real nice victory.

 

[personal]

Yet when he had the chance to win the TdF in 2008, he let sastre slip away when it was obvious the schlecks wouldnt do anything so sastre could take the tour. I doubt he'll ever get a chance that big to win the tour again. Though I dont dislike Evans, I kind of dislike his style of cycling, sitting in the wheel watching and not attacking himself.

He covered several attacks by other CSC guy and got spent when Sastre jumped.

That year he was alone against the strongest team in the world. And still lost by very small margin.

 

[Moondance]

Rating Gesink as time trialler is a joke. Also a TTT requires guys who can do good short time trials.

Evans - we all know is a strong time trialist and can do a good prologue
Bookwalter - 2nd in giro prologue only 2 seconds behind Wiggins.
Hincapie- been very close to the win in numerous times in tdf prologues
Quinziato - has finished high in many short tt's before.

Burghardt, Morabito & Santambrogio are all more than capable of being strong contributors in the ttt.

I would actually put big money on BMC beating Rabobank quite substantially in the ttt around Les Essarts.

I have to agree with Acf here. Rabobank don't have horrible TTers, but if one looks at the 9 men they're likely to field I don't think they'll be competitive, while BMC look quite strong, especially if they were to take Phinney.

Although, Acf, what would you consider substantially better over 23kms? 30 secs, 45 secs, a minute?

 

[auscyclefan94]

I have to agree with Acf here. Rabobank don't have horrible TTers, but if one looks at the 9 men they're likely to field I don't think they'll be competitive, while BMC look quite strong, especially if they were to take Phinney.

Although, Acf, what would you consider substantially better over 23kms? 30 secs, 45 secs, a minute?

40 seconds and above is quite substantial, maybe I was exaggerating a bit about how much BMC will beat Rabo by in the ttt but I still think BMC will take time out of rabobank.

 

[Havetts]

BMC squad looks stronger in the team time trial, but I think Rabo has a stronger squad for in the mountains.

Also Gesink has the potential to become a great timetrialist, 503W thats alot. ;p

 

[Angliru]

Or maybe you need to check some of the footage of the Vuelta 2009, where Evans was at least as strong as Basso. Or some of the Giro stages, even. You seem to base your judgement on this one GT, where we just didn't see Evans at his best. I'm not even an Evans fan, but the guy is almost perpetually underrated (except by ACF, of course). Evans got 2nd twice in a GT where he had to deal with much stronger opposition than Michele Scarponi.

In Basso's defense, he had spent 2 years away from competition. Granted the Vuelta was near the end of the season of his first year back but I would think that he would still be building back to his pre-suspension form (less the PED's) all during the first year back.

As stated earlier unless Evans can regain his prowess versus the clock I can't see him gaining any advantage on Basso. They are similar climbers, diesel-like, except Basso's diesel has more horsepower. Evans still should be up there in the fight for the podium but I can't see him being able to stay with Schlecklet and Basso when the tempo increases in the mountains.

 

[theyoungest]

In Basso's defense, he had spent 2 years away from competition. Granted the Vuelta was near the end of the season of his first year back but I would think that he would still be building back to his pre-suspension form (less the PED's) all during the first year back.

As stated earlier unless Evans can regain his prowess versus the clock I can't see him gaining any advantage on Basso. They are similar climbers, diesel-like, except Basso's diesel has more horsepower. Evans still should be up there in the fight for the podium but I can't see him being able to stay with Schlecklet and Basso when the tempo increases in the mountains.

Where does the idea originate that Basso will simply take Contador's place in the duel for the Tour title? He's the only guy in the current GT crop who hasn't tried and failed to stay with Schleck and Contador, is that it? I'd like to see him ride Sanchez, Gesink, and VDB off his wheel. I don't think he can.

 

[jens_attacks]

Where does the idea originate that Basso will simply take Contador's place in the duel for the Tour title? He's the only guy in the current GT crop who hasn't tried and failed to stay with Schleck and Contador, is that it? I'd like to see him ride Sanchez, Gesink, and VDB off his wheel. I don't think he can.

we'll see that in july.i said it a million times,there are huge chances to see basso in 2006 alien form.and what happens then?a guy that couldn't be dropped by armstrong and smoked the italian super elite climbers wouldn't drop evans,gesink,van den broeck?!!he will eat them alive on plateau de beille trust me.

 

[theyoungest]

we'll see that in july.i said it a million times,there are huge chances to see basso in 2006 alien form.and what happens then?a guy that couldn't be dropped by armstrong and smoked the italian super elite climbers wouldn't drop evans,gesink,van den broeck?!!he will eat them alive on plateau de beille trust me.

I'll save this post for later reference.

 

[hrotha]

we'll see that in july.i said it a million times,there are huge chances to see basso in 2006 alien form.and what happens then?a guy that couldn't be dropped by armstrong and smoked the italian super elite climbers wouldn't drop evans,gesink,van den broeck?!!he will eat them alive on plateau de beille trust me.

Why do you think 2006-Basso will return at 34, after a two-year suspension and another two years of being definitely terrestrial? Are you Pat McQuaid?

 

[Ryaguas]

Not the same as beating Andy Schleck by 4 minutes on Verbier and 2 tts.

Ahhhh in yah faceh!

They are similar climbers, diesel-like, except Basso's diesel has more horsepower.

hahahaha love it... "diesel-like" love it!

there are huge chances to see basso in 2006 alien form.

Im expecting the same... Basso can deliver it... and this year he wouldnt be tired from Il Giro!

 

[The Hitch]

All these hypotheticals miss an important point. To win the TdF in any year likely involves winning 2 or 3 of the hardest stages. Being a good GT rider, climbing in the front group, but not winning stages gives you consistent minor placings, and nothing more.

Cadel Evans has never really been able to win stages. That's why he has never really been a big win threat in the tour, and has spent minimal time in yellow. This means that he can't win the tour without outrageous luck (c.f. Oscar Pereiro).

And thats the point. Theres no bonus seconds, so winning a stage means nothing gc wise. You just have to finish in front of your opponents.

Said person came a close second o na stage and gifted a stage away. Said person could have won another stage if the breakaway wasn't up ahead.

Or if he didnt mess about with Purito in Mende.

But a better example is Nibali in Vuelta. I dont think he gave Bola to Mosquera, and he didnt come close anywhere else. Actually numbers 2,3 and 4 won stages, but the winner didnt. And unlike Tour, Vuelta has bonus seconds to boot,

Looking at previous gts Vuelta and Tour this year had a 0 stage winner. Giro had a 1/2 (ttt) stage winner. Last year Vuelta - 0 Tour - 2 Giro - 1
2008 - Vuelta-2 Tour - 1 Giro -0

Kind of puts down the argument that winning a gt requires winning multiple stages.

an Evans fan, but the guy is almost perpetually underrated (except by ACF, of course). Evans got 2nd twice in a GT where he had to deal with much stronger opposition than Michele Scarponi.

Or david arroyo

 

[jens_attacks]

Why do you think 2006-Basso will return at 34, after a two-year suspension and another two years of being definitely terrestrial? Are you Pat McQuaid?

he has the green light of the pigs idiots of the uci anyway.rat mcquaid loves him.
he's 33 maybe one of the last chances to conquer his big love,le tour de france.he'll do anything for that.

theyoungest,let's hope we'll remember...

 

[theyoungest]

Or david arroyo

Yeah, but Arroyo got 12 minutes gifted to him. Basso was definitely much stronger, hard to argue about that He wasn't that much stronger than Scarponi, though. He only managed to drop him on the Zoncolan.